hasben
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Post by hasben on Jun 11, 2020 11:39:25 GMT -8
On the other board a while back we discussed what would happen if trump lost and refused to leave office. Some speculated he would call the election a fraud and refuse to vacate. I don't see him refusing to leave as highly likely but I would bet my last dollar that he will absolutely do what is described in this article. And that will be another terrible blow to our democracy. I hate to think what it will do to the division that is already so well entrenched. www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-2020-election/index.html
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Post by TAMPATIDE on Jun 11, 2020 18:35:57 GMT -8
What a completely asinine and absurd article .........he will never, ever concede that he lost. And that would have massive consequences on not only our politics but on the broader foundations on which American democracy is built......exactly what would the massive consequences be ? Who the hell would care whether he concedes that he lost ? What broader foundations are endangered ? Here's what would happen, nothing, absolutely nothing. The country would move on and he would be ridiculed anytime he tried to raise the issue. His supporters would bitch and moan and raise all kinds of conspiracy theories but after 90 days it would be water over the dam. That article is borderline clickbait.
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Post by blindness on Jun 11, 2020 19:36:53 GMT -8
Yes and No.
Yes: whether he concedes or not has no bearing on the transfer of power. He can throw a fit all day long kon stop between the certification of the results and the day Biden is sworn in and the only impact would be yet another norm being broken, which is what we camm Tuesday these days.
No: the key thing is nit whether he concedes but whether does not leave the white house, operates as if he won a second term, then we could end up with a crisis. Yes, his authority will have ended on January whatever, but someone would have to step up and physically remove him from office. Then we'll really have to decide who has the authority to do that... And if they so choose not to do that?
Trump always exposes the operational crevices that the framers did not think about.
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Post by sagobob on Jun 11, 2020 20:20:51 GMT -8
On the other board a while back we discussed what would happen if trump lost and refused to leave office. Some speculated he would call the election a fraud and refuse to vacate. I don't see him refusing to leave as highly likely but I would bet my last dollar that he will absolutely do what is described in this article. And that will be another terrible blow to our democracy. I hate to think what it will do to the division that is already so well entrenched. www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/donald-trump-joe-biden-2020-election/index.htmlWhat really concerns me is the damage Trump could do between November 7th and January 20th. During that time he's still the POTUS and well as the CIC. I would hope he would take defeat like a man, but fear he would react like a petulant two-year old. Unless he want's to get savaged by historians, he'd better man up and leave gracefully. Another concern I have is, if the Republicans retain control, how the US Senate will react to a Biden presidency. Will they treat Biden like they did Obama? One positive possibility emerging from a Trump defeat is that maybe more of the spineless Republicans in the US Senate will turn their backs on him. They again, maybe they won't? In an evolutionary sense it takes hundreds if not thousands of years for an invertebrate to evolve and develop a boney spine.
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Post by andyh64000 on Jun 11, 2020 20:49:07 GMT -8
What will happen is that Trump will lose by an decent margin. He will claim voter fraud anyway. His most ardent craziest supporters (I went to high school with many of them) will share crazy conspiracy theories for a couple of months. Trump will be given an ownership stake in OAN and preach his nonsense but now without limits to his shrinking former base.
More crazy predictions:
Trump will try to open a legitimate university. Ivanka will run for a federal office Jared will write a book critical of Trump Don Jr will say he will run in 2024 Don Jr will not run in 2024 Biden will serve 4 years and then step aside but not immediately endorse his VP McConnell barely keeps his seat but loses the senate Some time in early 2021 McConnell complains that the Dem majority is being obstructionist Vice President Demming oversees comprehensive police reform The economy goes back into recession in Q4 2020 And unfortunately I really think this will happen, COVID 19's second wave in the fall/winter of 2020/2021 is worse than the first.
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Post by blublood on Jun 12, 2020 5:38:32 GMT -8
First off, to Blindness, Biden is right. If Trump refused to vacate the White House he would be escorted out, probably by some Marines. Biden would be Commander-in-Chief and the White House is, among other things, a military facility. Trump would be a trespasser in America's most sensitive workspace. All Trump can do is make himself look like a doofus.
The other thing you can be sure of is that an ex-president Trump would run for President again in 2024. His hold on the GOP will not go away.
All I can say is that I hope we're in a position on November 4 to have all these problems. It is no slam dunk.
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Post by blublood on Jun 12, 2020 5:43:46 GMT -8
As for this fantasy that Biden will serve four years and step aside, that's not the smart move. If he really doesn't want to serve 2 full terms, the smart move is to get re-elected and then resign at about 1pm on January 20, 2027. That will be with 1-hour less than two years left on his second term. Read the Constitution. His VP would become President, and she would have the opportunity to be elected twice and serve for 10 years.
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hasben
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Post by hasben on Jun 12, 2020 6:40:18 GMT -8
What a completely asinine and absurd article .........he will never, ever concede that he lost. And that would have massive consequences on not only our politics but on the broader foundations on which American democracy is built......exactly what would the massive consequences be ? Who the hell would care whether he concedes that he lost ? What broader foundations are endangered ? Here's what would happen, nothing, absolutely nothing. The country would move on and he would be ridiculed anytime he tried to raise the issue. His supporters would bitch and moan and raise all kinds of conspiracy theories but after 90 days it would be water over the dam. That article is borderline clickbait. If you read the full article the author explained what consequences would likely follow. We all know that a large segment of maga believes anything that comes out of trump's mouth. Watch his rallies. I get his absurd conspiracy theories and atrocious lies spewed back to me from his supporters all the time. Having a significant number of the population believe that the sitting potus is totally illegitimate and that the election was stolen from them is potentially very dangerous and damaging. Sorry, but only those who support his contemptuous actions and behavior think that is absurd. And after 90 days it would not be water down the drain because he will twitter scream that we have an illegitimate potus until the day he dies and many of the millions of his loyalists will believe it.
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Post by blindness on Jun 12, 2020 7:37:06 GMT -8
First off, to Blindness, Biden is right. If Trump refused to vacate the White House he would be escorted out, probably by some Marines. Biden would be Commander-in-Chief and the White House is, among other things, a military facility. Trump would be a trespasser in America's most sensitive workspace. All Trump can do is make himself look like a doofus. Looking like a doofus is his game!
I understand the scenario and ever since the military did its push back against being used to take down protestors, I can at least see some light at the end of that tunnel (Milley apologizing definitely helped, reports that Milley considered resignation, not so much).
That said, consider this scenario. Everything plays out the way you say, except that the top commander of the marines says "I don't know man, this seems like a political issue and we cannot be involved in politics. If there are claims that there was widespread and organized voter fraud, we cannot be a party to that. We need a political solution" The AG orders an investigation (actually he probably ordered one and probably already found that there was enough fraud to tip the election to Biden).
So now we have a legitimacy problem. Biden claims to have won the election, the body that investigates the election has determined that the results are forged. The electoral college already cast their vote, the election has been certified but the current president is not vacating and the military wants a political solution (or straight out rejects the election results, which is another scenario).
Then what?
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 12, 2020 7:47:34 GMT -8
The other thing you can be sure of is that an ex-president Trump would run for President again in 2024. His hold on the GOP will not go away. Dude, you stole my thunder. Blu is right. His hold on the GOP will not go away after November no matter what happens. After Trump leaves the White House (either of his own volition or dragged out), he can now devote himself full time to air out his grievances. He will savagely attack any Republican who tries to move the party forward. Then the prospect of his rerun in 2024 will stay in the news front and center for the next 3 years placing the future of the GOP on hold. That means Biden has no choice but to run for reelection. Will this be the first rematch since Cleveland vs. Harrison in 1892? I can also see Trump running for Rubio's Senate seat in 22. Rubio will shit his pants and step aside after a couple of lame attempts to push back. What a fitting end it will be for him. Senator Trump in 22 and President Trump again in 24? Don't bet against it. If Trump wins reelection, then besides other horrible things, he will spend the next four years campaigning for Donald Junior. Sorry Mike. He is not grooming you to be the GOP's next standard bearer. Edit: The last rematch was Eisenhower vs. Adlai Stevenson in 1956.
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Post by blindness on Jun 12, 2020 8:19:55 GMT -8
Hate to say this, but I am not sure if either will be in any physical shape to run in 2024 -- and I am being charitable here. Also watch out for a major generational shift in the next four years, both in the candidates and in the voters.
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 12, 2020 8:51:55 GMT -8
Hate to say this, but I am not sure if either will be in any physical shape to run in 2024 -- and I am being charitable here. Also watch out for a major generational shift in the next four years, both in the candidates and in the voters. That only matters to Biden. Trump supporters don't care.
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Post by mhbruin on Jun 13, 2020 11:47:21 GMT -8
The AG orders an investigation (actually he probably ordered one and probably already found that there was enough fraud to tip the election to Biden).
So now we have a legitimacy problem. Biden claims to have won the election, the body that investigates the election has determined that the results are forged. The electoral college already cast their vote, the election has been certified but the current president is not vacating and the military wants a political solution (or straight out rejects the election results, which is another scenario).
Then what?
An investigation won't change anything. Each state hold an election, and this decides who the electors are. Those electors then cast their votes and the results are publically. The result is sent to Washington, and Congress adds up the votes. There is no mechanism for them to disqualify votes or nullify them. The just add them up. There is no place for the AG to intervene in the process.
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hasben
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Post by hasben on Jun 13, 2020 14:18:49 GMT -8
mhbruin There is no mechanism for them to disqualify votes or nullify them. The just add them up. There is no place for the AG to intervene in the process. Not sure I agree with that. If trump alleges that votes weren't counted, or that votes were changed, or that fraudulent votes were counted (mail ins) then there would have to be an investigation with likely state recounts in crucial states. Election officials in red states might well support the allegations. Recounting paper ballots would be the only recourse. FL's infamous hanging chads comes to mind where some votes were changed. I believe challenges to state counts have to be resolved 6 days prior to the meeting of the electors in late December so it appears he couldn't drag this out indefinitely. Challenging a presidential election: fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/contest.pdf
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dsc
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Post by dsc on Jun 13, 2020 15:01:51 GMT -8
The AG (or someone else) can get the Supreme Court involved. We all remember what happened in 2000. Amazing that after all the issues with voting came to light, the country has actually regressed in that regard.
DBT Online which played a role in purging thousands of black and Hispanic voters was my employer.
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