Post by mhbruin on Mar 31, 2024 12:12:20 GMT -8
CHANGES
Brooks Barnhizer withdraws from the draft and raeturns to Northwestern
====================
The Northwestern Wildcats tied with Nebraska for third in the B1G, after being picked 8th in the pre-season poll. They were not the biggest surprise in the Big Ten last season. That would be Nebraska who was picked to finish 12th our of 14 teams.
They are coached by Chris Collins, son of NBA coach Doug Collins. He has been in Evanston for 11 years, and he has been to the NCAA tournament three times, each time losing in the Round of 32. Two of those tournament apprearances were in the last two seasons. In 2022-23, UCLA knocked them out of the tournament.
Before the last two seasons, Northwestern had only finished better than 9th in the B1G one time under Chris Collins.
Collins' NCAA tournament appearances are the only three times the Wildcats have been to the dance. To find a Northwestern coach with a winning record you have to go back to Arthur Lonborg who coached there from 1927 to 1950. I don't remember him either, and I grew up in Chicago and hung out in Evanston. The only big college basketball news in Chicago was made by Loyola-Chicago.
Chris Collins is one game below .500 in his career, which makes him the most successfui Northwestern coach in 74 years. Northwesern is whatever is the opposite of a blue blood program.
GRADUATING
With the graduation of Boo Buie and Langborg, Northwestern loses 2 starters and 2 of their 3 best three-point shooters.
Boo Buie was the star of the team and first-team All-Big-Ten. He led the team in scoring and assists. He was #49 nationally in assists per game.
Ryan Langborg was third on the team in scoring.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
If Brooks Barnhizer stays in the draft, it would be a big loss. However, he was not invited to the combine, so it is very likely he returns.
Northwestern got great news when Brooks Barnhizer withdrew from the draft, but few people expected him to stay in.
TRANSFERRING OUT
Freshman Parker Strauss never played for the Wildcats. He was unranked coming out of high school. His other offers were Colorado State and Cal Poly. He doesn't seem like a big loss.
RETURNING
Northwestern returns more production than any other team in the Big Ten, edging out UCLA (at least the way I measure returning production.)
Northwestern is losing their best player, but they return a lot of guys who played at least 10 games and five who were at least part-time starters. They return 3 seniors and 4 juniors.
Books Barnhizer was their second-leading scorer and led the team in rebounds and steals, which is an unusual combination. Barnhizer was third-team All-Big-Ten and was named to the All-Defense team. (NOTE: To confuse matters, the Big Ten has two all-conference teams, a coaches All-Big-Ten team and a media All-Big-Ten team.)
Ty Berry was one of their two best three-point shooters, before he went down with a season-ending injury.
Nick Martinelli was their second-leading rebounder and a decent scorer near the basket He needs to improve his outside shooting.
7-foot Matthew Nicholson was an adequate Big Ten center, although not a big scorer. He was an outstanding passer, which isn't that common among 7-footers.
"Justin Mullins is a slasher who was not efficient enough from three to earn big minutes for a Northwestern team that made its living from behind the arc." He was beat out by walk-on Blake Smith for Ty Berry's place in the rotation.
Blake Smith is a walk-on who was forced into action due to a bunch of injuries, "Collins turned to an unlikely source, pulling sophomore walk-on guard Blake Smith into his office. Smith decided to redshirt earlier in the season to preserve his eligibility, but dire circumstances called for swift action."
Another Blake on the roster is Blake Barkley who red-shirted last season. So, if you are keeping count, Northwestern had three Blakes on the roster last season, but next season they will be down to two Blakes. We weill see if the two Blakes is Enough.
Don't confuse "the two Blakes" with "The Two Jakes" the sequel to the movie "Chinatown". However, someone might want to tell them, "It's Evanston, Blake".
RECRUITS
(#73 class, #16 in B1G)
When you beat out Akron and Belmost for your recruits, you aren't killing it.
TRANSFERRING IN
Keenan Fitzmorris started his career at Stanford, where he didn't play much in his two seasons. Then he started around one-third of his games for the 6th place team in the Colonial Conference, where he led the team in blocks. None of this suggests he is ready to play in the B1G. However, he is the only backup center on the roster.
(The Stony Brook Seawolf mascot is "Wolfie the Wolf". That didn't take a lot of creativity. It's like people who give their cat the name "Cat".
Jalen Leach was the second-leading scorer for the 2nd-place team in the Mid-American Conference.
This is not a very impressive transfer class, but it does give them a lot more experience. I am not sure experience was their main issue. It might be talent.
CONCLUSION
Northwestern was #7 in offensive efficiency and #54 in defensive efficiency last season. They were #7 in the country in both three-point percent and lowest turnover rate.
Northwestern returns a lot of experience and a lot of maturity. They return 61% of their starts for last season, although quite a few of those starts were subs who started due to injuries to actual starters. They return the most rebounding and shot blocking in the Big Ten. They will have 5 seniors, and 4 juniors.
However, they don't return is a lot of talent, Northwestern is the only Big Team team without a single player on the team who was rated above a three-star out of high school. Some three-stars turn out to be excellent players. However, some don't. It is hard to win with a full roster of low-ranked and unranked players.
Has the recent success of the Wildcat program been the result of a turnaround, or have they found momentary success riding Boo Bouie? I suspect it was Boo Bouie. It likely they are going to revert to Northwestern's historical status in the bottom half of the league. My guess is thye finish around 10th in the Big Ten. A wildcat cannot change it's stripes.
Torvick projects the Wildcats as the #38 team in the country and #8 in the Big Ten, with 19-12 record and 10-10 in conference.
247 picks Northwestern 17th in the Big Ten. which would be a huge dropoff from their 3rd-place finish.
Lunardi predicts they will be "Next four out" of the tournament.
Vrooman picks them 12th in the Big Ten. He writes:
12. Northwestern Wildcats
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +16.13 (+16.41 last year)
Coaching Info: Chris Collins +1.4 (34th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’6 F Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 pts, 7.5 reb), 6’3 G Ty Berry (11.6 pts, 43.3% 3pt), 6’4 G Jalen Leach (Fairfield- 16.2 pts, 4.1 reb), 7’0 C Keenan Fitzmorris (Stony Brook- 10.9 pts, 4.4 reb), 6’7 F Nick Martinelli (8.8 pts, 4.3 reb)
Northwestern had somehow never been to an NCAA tournament before 2017 and was clearly one of the worst power conference jobs in the country. Chris Collins managed to break the streak back in 2017 and has now taken them to consecutive tournaments for the first time in program history. Keeping that going will be tough as they lose do-everything star Daniel “Boo” Buie who averaged 19 points and 5 assists last year on 43% 3-point shooting. Also gone is fellow starting guard Ryan Langborg who was 3rd on the team in scoring and also shot better than 40% from deep.
The good news is that SF Brooks Barnhizer is back after top-2 team finishes per game in points (2nd), rebounds (1st), assists (2nd), steals (1st), and blocks (1st). He’s got a good shot at making an all-conference team now that he is being asked to take on a bigger role. Northwestern brought in a pair of transfers from low major programs and need both to be immediate contributors. This team’s ceiling is probably somewhere around 35-40th in the country but the pieces seem to fit reasonably well and they have a good coach so there’s a decent chance they get there.
Brooks Barnhizer withdraws from the draft and raeturns to Northwestern
====================
The Northwestern Wildcats tied with Nebraska for third in the B1G, after being picked 8th in the pre-season poll. They were not the biggest surprise in the Big Ten last season. That would be Nebraska who was picked to finish 12th our of 14 teams.
They are coached by Chris Collins, son of NBA coach Doug Collins. He has been in Evanston for 11 years, and he has been to the NCAA tournament three times, each time losing in the Round of 32. Two of those tournament apprearances were in the last two seasons. In 2022-23, UCLA knocked them out of the tournament.
Before the last two seasons, Northwestern had only finished better than 9th in the B1G one time under Chris Collins.
Collins' NCAA tournament appearances are the only three times the Wildcats have been to the dance. To find a Northwestern coach with a winning record you have to go back to Arthur Lonborg who coached there from 1927 to 1950. I don't remember him either, and I grew up in Chicago and hung out in Evanston. The only big college basketball news in Chicago was made by Loyola-Chicago.
Chris Collins is one game below .500 in his career, which makes him the most successfui Northwestern coach in 74 years. Northwesern is whatever is the opposite of a blue blood program.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Boo Buie | 34 | 34 | 37 | 19 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 5 years at NU. Leading scorer, assists. 43% on threes. |
| Ryan Langborg | 32 | 32 | 33 | 13 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 42% on threes. |
| Blake Preston | 28 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | |
| . | |||||||
| . |
With the graduation of Boo Buie and Langborg, Northwestern loses 2 starters and 2 of their 3 best three-point shooters.
Boo Buie was the star of the team and first-team All-Big-Ten. He led the team in scoring and assists. He was #49 nationally in assists per game.
Ryan Langborg was third on the team in scoring.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Parker Strauss | 0 | UC Riverside | ||||||
| . | ||||||||
Freshman Parker Strauss never played for the Wildcats. He was unranked coming out of high school. His other offers were Colorado State and Cal Poly. He doesn't seem like a big loss.
RETURNING
Northwestern returns more production than any other team in the Big Ten, edging out UCLA (at least the way I measure returning production.)
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 61% |
| Minutes | 62% |
| Points | 55% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 42% |
| Rebounds | 68% |
| Assists | 48% |
| Steals | 60% |
| Blocks | 83% |
Northwestern is losing their best player, but they return a lot of guys who played at least 10 games and five who were at least part-time starters. They return 3 seniors and 4 juniors.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Brooks Barnhizer G | 6-6 215 | 34 | 34 | 37 | 15 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 43% | 35% | 1.7 | Sr | 3 | 157 |
| Ty Berry G | 6-3 185 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 45% | 43% | 1.3 | Sr 5 | 3 | 149 |
| Nick Martinelli F | 6-7 200 | 34 | 11 | 26 | 9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 49% | 27% | 1.5 | Jr | Unranked | |
| Matthew Nicholson C | 7-0 280 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 66% | -- | 2.9 | Sr | 3 | 274 |
| Luke Hunger F | 6-10 255 | 31 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 45% | 20% | 1.3 | Jr | 3 | 204 |
| Justin Mullins G | 6-4 190 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 30% | 50% | 0.7 | Jr | Unranked | |
| Jordan Clayton G | 6-2 180 | 28 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 17% | 8% | 1.1 | So | 3 | 189 |
| Blake Smith G | 6-6 175 | 10 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 64% | 33% | 0.8 | Jr | Unranked | |
| Blake Barkley F | 6-7 210 | Redshirt | Fr | 3 | 249 |
Books Barnhizer was their second-leading scorer and led the team in rebounds and steals, which is an unusual combination. Barnhizer was third-team All-Big-Ten and was named to the All-Defense team. (NOTE: To confuse matters, the Big Ten has two all-conference teams, a coaches All-Big-Ten team and a media All-Big-Ten team.)
Ty Berry was one of their two best three-point shooters, before he went down with a season-ending injury.
Nick Martinelli was their second-leading rebounder and a decent scorer near the basket He needs to improve his outside shooting.
7-foot Matthew Nicholson was an adequate Big Ten center, although not a big scorer. He was an outstanding passer, which isn't that common among 7-footers.
"Justin Mullins is a slasher who was not efficient enough from three to earn big minutes for a Northwestern team that made its living from behind the arc." He was beat out by walk-on Blake Smith for Ty Berry's place in the rotation.
Blake Smith is a walk-on who was forced into action due to a bunch of injuries, "Collins turned to an unlikely source, pulling sophomore walk-on guard Blake Smith into his office. Smith decided to redshirt earlier in the season to preserve his eligibility, but dire circumstances called for swift action."
Another Blake on the roster is Blake Barkley who red-shirted last season. So, if you are keeping count, Northwestern had three Blakes on the roster last season, but next season they will be down to two Blakes. We weill see if the two Blakes is Enough.
Don't confuse "the two Blakes" with "The Two Jakes" the sequel to the movie "Chinatown". However, someone might want to tell them, "It's Evanston, Blake".
RECRUITS
(#73 class, #16 in B1G)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| KJ Windham | 6-3 175 | CG | 3 | 128 | Arkon, App State, FIU |
| Angelo Ciaravino | 6-5 175 | SF | 3 | 149 | Belmont, DePaul, Buffalo |
| . | |||||
| . | |||||
| . | |||||
| . |
When you beat out Akron and Belmost for your recruits, you aren't killing it.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 123 | 16 |
| Evan Miya | 155 | 15 |
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Transfer Rank |
| Keenan Fitzmorris | 7-0 235 | 35 | 11 | 25 | 11 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 51% | 33% | 0.7 | Stony Brook | Sr 5 | 3 | 227 | 393 |
| Jalen Leach | 6-4 200 | 32 | 29 | 33 | 16 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 49% | 35% | 1.8 | Farifield | Sr 5 | Unranked | Unranked | |
| . |
Keenan Fitzmorris started his career at Stanford, where he didn't play much in his two seasons. Then he started around one-third of his games for the 6th place team in the Colonial Conference, where he led the team in blocks. None of this suggests he is ready to play in the B1G. However, he is the only backup center on the roster.
(The Stony Brook Seawolf mascot is "Wolfie the Wolf". That didn't take a lot of creativity. It's like people who give their cat the name "Cat".
Jalen Leach was the second-leading scorer for the 2nd-place team in the Mid-American Conference.
This is not a very impressive transfer class, but it does give them a lot more experience. I am not sure experience was their main issue. It might be talent.
CONCLUSION
Northwestern was #7 in offensive efficiency and #54 in defensive efficiency last season. They were #7 in the country in both three-point percent and lowest turnover rate.
Northwestern returns a lot of experience and a lot of maturity. They return 61% of their starts for last season, although quite a few of those starts were subs who started due to injuries to actual starters. They return the most rebounding and shot blocking in the Big Ten. They will have 5 seniors, and 4 juniors.
However, they don't return is a lot of talent, Northwestern is the only Big Team team without a single player on the team who was rated above a three-star out of high school. Some three-stars turn out to be excellent players. However, some don't. It is hard to win with a full roster of low-ranked and unranked players.
Has the recent success of the Wildcat program been the result of a turnaround, or have they found momentary success riding Boo Bouie? I suspect it was Boo Bouie. It likely they are going to revert to Northwestern's historical status in the bottom half of the league. My guess is thye finish around 10th in the Big Ten. A wildcat cannot change it's stripes.
Torvick projects the Wildcats as the #38 team in the country and #8 in the Big Ten, with 19-12 record and 10-10 in conference.
247 picks Northwestern 17th in the Big Ten. which would be a huge dropoff from their 3rd-place finish.
Lunardi predicts they will be "Next four out" of the tournament.
Vrooman picks them 12th in the Big Ten. He writes:
12. Northwestern Wildcats
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +16.13 (+16.41 last year)
Coaching Info: Chris Collins +1.4 (34th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’6 F Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 pts, 7.5 reb), 6’3 G Ty Berry (11.6 pts, 43.3% 3pt), 6’4 G Jalen Leach (Fairfield- 16.2 pts, 4.1 reb), 7’0 C Keenan Fitzmorris (Stony Brook- 10.9 pts, 4.4 reb), 6’7 F Nick Martinelli (8.8 pts, 4.3 reb)
Northwestern had somehow never been to an NCAA tournament before 2017 and was clearly one of the worst power conference jobs in the country. Chris Collins managed to break the streak back in 2017 and has now taken them to consecutive tournaments for the first time in program history. Keeping that going will be tough as they lose do-everything star Daniel “Boo” Buie who averaged 19 points and 5 assists last year on 43% 3-point shooting. Also gone is fellow starting guard Ryan Langborg who was 3rd on the team in scoring and also shot better than 40% from deep.
The good news is that SF Brooks Barnhizer is back after top-2 team finishes per game in points (2nd), rebounds (1st), assists (2nd), steals (1st), and blocks (1st). He’s got a good shot at making an all-conference team now that he is being asked to take on a bigger role. Northwestern brought in a pair of transfers from low major programs and need both to be immediate contributors. This team’s ceiling is probably somewhere around 35-40th in the country but the pieces seem to fit reasonably well and they have a good coach so there’s a decent chance they get there.