Post by mhbruin on Mar 17, 2024 16:03:44 GMT -8
CHANGES
Will McClendon transfers to San Jose State.
Ilane Fibleuil signs with Poitiers Basket 86
6/4 Berke Büyüktuncel transfers to Nebraska
====================
The UCLA Bruins who finished 5th in the final season of the Pac-12. We were one of the youngest, least experience teams in the country, and at times we played like it.
After several years of relative roster stability, last season was almost a total remake of the roster. This off-season is strange. We return a lot of production, but also bring in 8 new players. Unlike last season, the new players are mostly transfers, not freshmen. We also went domestic, not international.
GRADUATING
Kenny didn't have the talent to be a major player on a consistent basis, but it was sure great to have him during our Final Four run and when Bona got into foul trouble. He is a great part of the Bruin family. He's one of that vanishing breed of players who spend their entire career at one school.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
When you lose an all-league player, it is always a significant loss. When he is also the conference defensive player of the year, it is a bigger loss.
Adem's greatest asset, his desire to make a play every time, was also his achilles heel. However, you have to love a player who gives his all, every play. Good luck in the NBA, Adem!
TRANSFERRING OUT
Thus ends most of our international experiment. In our optimistic moments, some of us thought several of these guys could come in and be big factors right away. I am a little sad it didn't work out for them or for us.
Berke is the player who we will likely miss the most. We will face him next season.
Ilane Fibleuil will be playiing professionally in France in the Pro B League. As you might expect, it is one level below the Pro A League.
Will McClendon had the best A/TO ratio on the team for his two seasons as a Bruin.
RETURNING
UCLA is tied with Northwestern for the most returning production. The biggest loss is in rim protection. We will miss Adem Bona's 1.8 blocks per game. William Kyle's 1.6 blocks and Kobe Johnson's 0.8 should help fill the gap.
Although we return a large percentage of our three-pointers made, we didn't make all that many. We were #323 in three-pointers per game. The only major team that was worse was Louisville.
By the end of the season, Dylan Andrews was our best player. He could have a breakout season and be All-Big-Ten.
In a normal year, Sebastian Mack would have come off the bench. Instead he had a lot of responsibility dropped on him. He handled it very well for a freshman and made the All-Pac-12 Freshman Team, but it was still probably too much for him. He probably won't start this season, and he will shoot a lot better.
Lazar Stefanovic was the veteran on the team, even though it was his first season as a Bruin. He was definitely, the most consistent, steady player. He was our leading rebounder.
Aday Mara showed occasional flashes of his offensive talent, but wasn't ready for college basketball. He may not be ready to fully emerge after one off-season in the weight room, but at some point he will explode. It might be in 2025-26, but I expect more incremental improvement.
Brandon Williams was another freshman forced to do too much, too early. He did a decent job of rising to the occasion.
Devin Williams arrived at UCLA with a lot of potential, but not physically ready for major college basketball. Depending on how he develops and Mara develops, he could be our backup center or be burried deep on the bench.
It the first five guys on the list were our starting five next season, we would probably think we could be a good team next year. But wait! There's more!
RECRUITS
(#37 class, #7 in BiG)
A note about the rankings. I used the 247 composite rankings. There is also a 247 ranking. The composite mixes the 247 ranking with others such as the ESPN ranking of incoming freshmen. Usually, they are pretty close, but sometimes there can be a big difference between the two. For example, for Eric Freeny, the 247 ranking is #69 and the composite is #122.
Trent Perry is more normal. He is #30 in the 247 ranking and #33 in the composite.
I have no idea which is a better ranking. I have just always used the composite.
Trent Perry led his high school team, Harvard-Westlake, to a second straight California Open Division Championship, averaging 18.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals per game, and shot a blistering 47.2% from three. He was named both the MaxPreps and Gatorade 2023-24 California High School Boys Basketball Player of the Year.
He also was a McDonald's All American and won the three-point shooting contest. He is ranked the #3 point guard prospect in the country by 247.
For anyone expecting the next Lonzo Ball, you need to temper your expectations a bit. He is likely to have a very good freshman year, and he could make the Big Tean All-Freshman Team, but he isn't likely to look like a lottery pick.
Eric Freeny is a talented kid who may not see enough PT to show his ability this season. In normal year, he would play quite a bit. With our depth, he might redshirt.
TRANSFERRING IN
For a while we were ranked the #1 transfer class in the country. Our ranking has dropped down a bit, but this is still a great class that addresses our needs really well.
The first thing I would point out is the "starts" column. Every one of these players is used to starting. Four of them were full-time or part-time starters at Power 6 conference teams. These are not guys who have potential. These are guys who have produced.
Skyy Clark was considered a high major recruit out of high school and was offered by Kentucky. He spent one season at Illinois and his second at Louisville. He was the leading scorer on one of the worst teams in a major conference.
In his last game with the Cardinals he scored 36 against NC State shooting 12 of 17 and going 7 of 9 on three-pointers. He had 5 other games of more than 20 points.
Kobe Johnson was a two-year starter and considered USC's best defensive player. He was on the Pac-12 All-Defense team.
Eric Dailey, Jr. may be the most athletic player at the 4 position at UCLA since Ed O'Bannon (before the knee injury).
According to Ben Bolch:
"A 6-foot-8 forward, Dailey can play both inside and out. Last season, he was the only player in the Big 12 Conference to finish in the top five among freshmen in points (9.3), rebounds (4.8) and assists (1.5) per game despite coming off the bench as a sixth man over the second half of the season to maximize mismatches.
"Dailey made 33.3% of his three-pointers and shot 49.6% overall and notched two double-doubles. His departure came after Oklahoma State fired coach Mike Boynton.
According to 247 Tyler Bilodeau "can shoot from deep, in the midrange and is tough around the basket. Offensively he's a match-up problem -- too big and skilled for most opposing fours to defend both with his back to the basket and facing up. At 6-9 and 220 pounds, he'd even be able to play the post if you went smaller and he could really abuse opposing post defenders with his ability to go outside. He's just a decent athlete and defender, but did fine defensively against power forwards in the Pac-12 this last season."
William Kyle averaged 1.6 blocks per game. Kyle was Summit League defensive player of the year. Kyle blocked 1.6 shots per game last season while shooting a league-best 62.3% on the way to also being selected a member of the league’s first team.
Here's what BRO has to say about Harris:
"He's probably one of the most under-the-radar players to enter the transfer portal this offseason. He's ranked the 275th transfer nationally by 247Sports, but with all due respect, we think that ranking misses the mark. In his junior season, he averaged 14.3 points from the field while shooting 45% from three. That's good enough to be the No. 3 three-point shooter in the country for the 2023-2024 season. He can get off his shot off the dribble, the pull-up and on a quick catch-and-shoot, with deep range. He's well-built, strong, tough, and is a good defender. We've likened him to David Singleton, but more athletic and with a more well-rounded game. He's also been through the wars, starting his career at Gonzaga after being a four-star high school recruit in 2020, to then transferring to LMU and earning a starting spot. He's also 23 years old, so there's maturity with the experience -- making him a very good fit for UCLA and Mick Cronin."
Harris is listed as a senior, but he will have two years of eligibility left.
Some things concern me about Harris:
Hopefully the coaches noticed those things and know what they are doing.
CONCLUSION
This has been the most eventful off-season for UCLA since 1998. when we signed the #1 freshman class in the country. That class may have been over-rated and Steve Lavin was the coach, but that group led us to three consecutive Sweet 16s.
This group of new players may not have the lofty rankings, but it gives us a hell of a lot of talent and depth, and most of that talent is proven.
This year's roster rebuild is quite different from last off-season. We have mostly upgraded in scoring, shooting, athleticism, and experience.
We have the most talented roster in the B1G with one 5-star and NINE 4-star players. We also have maturity, with 3 seniors and 4 juniors. We have depth at every position.
We can play big. We can play small. Somebody gets injured? Next!
The remarkable thing may be that all the new players came and the old players stayed. They had to know that there would be a logjam at every position. No one is guaranteed playing time. These guys know what Mick Cronin expects of them. They are here to win.
What are the problems?
These are concerns. This roster has a ton of positives, but it is not perfect.
However UCLA should be fighting with Indiana and Michigan State for the Big Ten Title. I suspect Purdue, Oregon, and USC will be the second tier.
Could we be national title contenders? I think it's too early to say. We might be a year away.
Torvick projects UCLA as the #14 team in the country and the #2 team in the Big Ten. He projects a 23-8 record, and 14-6 in conference.
247 picks the Bruins to finish 1st in the Big Ten.
Lunadri predicts UCLA will be a #5 seed.
Vrooman also picks us to win the conference. He writes:
1. UCLA Bruins
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +26.26 (+7.96 last year)
Coaching Info: Mick Cronin +3.11 (26th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’2 G Dylan Andrews (12.9 pts, 3.7 ast), 6’9 F Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State- 14.3 pts, 5.7 reb), 6’1 G Skyy Clark (Louisville- 13.2 pts, 3.0 ast), 6’3 G Sebastian Mack (12.1 pts, 3.6 reb), 7’3 C Aday Mara (3.5 pts, 1.9 reb)
Last season’s UCLA was maybe the crowning achievement for my model’s ability to pick a team everyone thought would be good and point out some glaring flaws. It was the worst finish at KenPom for a Mick Cronin team since 2009 despite coming off three consecutive top-15 seasons.
This year though is the opposite as my model likes UCLA to get back into the top-5 in the country and thinks they’re the frontrunners for the B1G title in their first season in the conference. Why? Let’s start with the depth. No one has a better bottom of the roster than this Bruins squad. Seven players on the roster were top-75 recruits. Of those that weren’t, four scored 10+ points per game last season. The 5th played 17 minutes per game last season for UCLA. And for their last scholarship they added a four-star freshman (who was outside the top-75).
But wait, there’s more! Because UCLA flipped top-30 recruit Trent Perry from USC after Andy Enfield left and got him to pay his own way so that UCLA has 14 players who all would likely be in the rotation at Washington.
There are downsides here. There’s no way to keep 14 players happy. Plus factor in that they’re being coached by Mick Cronin so they’re likely already miserable. If UCLA gets off to a rough start then this absolutely has potential to blow up in Cronin’s face with just abominable team chemistry.
If they win though, and they should given their roster, then it probably keeps those 5 guys who aren’t playing quiet and means they can withstand any injury or pair of injuries and still feel like their team didn’t get all that much worse.
Despite being the Big Ten favorites, I don’t know that I’d have UCLA as a true title contender. They’re a clear tier behind Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, and Kansas in my model. It’s entirely possible that UCLA doesn’t have a single player average more than 15+ points per game. The elite NBA level star power is missing here. But they also have probably 11 guys capable of averaging 10+ points per game on a good team if given the chance this season and no one in the country can match that.
===========================
Mike Miller had some comments about expecting improved shooting:
"3- point shooting: Other than Perry and Harris, none of the newcomers are "great" 3-point shooters, but compared to last year we have a bunch of shooting Gods especially when you look at the volume of shots taken. Our team 3-point % will almost certainly be 3+ points higher and we took 552 3-pointers last year and, leaving out Kyle, our 5 transfers took 551 3-pointers themselves (Kyle took 1).
"Zero- Foot shooting: UCLA only made 52% of its dunk and layup attempts, 10th worst in D 1 (there was a 24/7 article on this). Bilodeau made 71% of his 0 footers, Kyle 69%, Dailey, 63%, Clark 60%, Johnson 58%... you get the picture. Bona actually only made just 63% and no one else on the team who took 2 or more 0 footers a game even made 50%. The best teams shoot well and often from 3 and from point blank range and UCLA will likely improve a great deal in both areas. We have some dang good FT shooters too.
===========================
MICK CRONIN, UCLA
Profile: One of the better coaches in college basketball, though one whose name doesn’t always resonate widely in that context, Cronin, 52, seemed like a strange fit at UCLA, taking over a glamour program after leading gritty Cincinnati for years. But it’s worked for the most part. UCLA was bad this season, but went to the Final Four right away under Cronin, during the Bubble season. But how does Cronin work long-term with the sort of talent you have to get at UCLA? How does the NIL set-up stack up in L.A.? If UCLA doesn’t hit the ground running in the Big Ten, would Cronin look to move again?
Style of Play: He’s always been a defensive coach, teams built on physicality, rebounding and toughness. That fell off some at UCLA this season, but the year prior it was No. 2 nationally in defensive efficiency.
Will McClendon transfers to San Jose State.
Ilane Fibleuil signs with Poitiers Basket 86
6/4 Berke Büyüktuncel transfers to Nebraska
====================
The UCLA Bruins who finished 5th in the final season of the Pac-12. We were one of the youngest, least experience teams in the country, and at times we played like it.
After several years of relative roster stability, last season was almost a total remake of the roster. This off-season is strange. We return a lot of production, but also bring in 8 new players. Unlike last season, the new players are mostly transfers, not freshmen. We also went domestic, not international.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
| Kenneth Nwuba | 33 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 | |
Kenny didn't have the talent to be a major player on a consistent basis, but it was sure great to have him during our Final Four run and when Bona got into foul trouble. He is a great part of the Bruin family. He's one of that vanishing breed of players who spend their entire career at one school.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| Adem Bona | 33 | 33 | 27 | 12 | 5.9 | 1.2 | Isn't expected to. |
When you lose an all-league player, it is always a significant loss. When he is also the conference defensive player of the year, it is a bigger loss.
Adem's greatest asset, his desire to make a play every time, was also his achilles heel. However, you have to love a player who gives his all, every play. Good luck in the NBA, Adem!
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes | Destination |
| Ilane Fibleuil | 25 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 | Poitiers Basket 86 in France | |
| Will McClendon | 33 | 4 | 29 | 4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | San Jose State | |
| Jan Vide | 24 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | Loyola Marymount | |
| Berke Büyüktuncel | 26 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.4 | Nebraska | |
Thus ends most of our international experiment. In our optimistic moments, some of us thought several of these guys could come in and be big factors right away. I am a little sad it didn't work out for them or for us.
Berke is the player who we will likely miss the most. We will face him next season.
Ilane Fibleuil will be playiing professionally in France in the Pro B League. As you might expect, it is one level below the Pro A League.
Will McClendon had the best A/TO ratio on the team for his two seasons as a Bruin.
RETURNING
| STAT | RETURNING |
| Starts | 72% |
| Minutes | 61% |
| Points | 64% |
| 3-Pointers Made | 77% |
| Rebounds | 47% |
| Assists | 70% |
| Steals | 60% |
| Blocks | 28% |
UCLA is tied with Northwestern for the most returning production. The biggest loss is in rim protection. We will miss Adem Bona's 1.8 blocks per game. William Kyle's 1.6 blocks and Kobe Johnson's 0.8 should help fill the gap.
Although we return a large percentage of our three-pointers made, we didn't make all that many. We were #323 in three-pointers per game. The only major team that was worse was Louisville.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Dylan Andrews G | 6-2 180 | 32 | 32 | 35 | 13 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 40% | 33% | 1.9 | Jr | 4 | 42 |
| Sebastian Mack G | 6-2 200 | 33 | 33 | 27 | 12 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 39% | 28% | 1.0 | So | 4 | 66 |
| Lazar Stefanovic G | 6-7 190 | 33 | 33 | 35 | 12 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 39% | 40% | 1.5 | Sr | 3 | Unranked |
| Aday Mara C | 7-3 240 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 44% | 0.8 | So | 5 | 15 | |
| Brandon Williams G | 6-7 220 | 32 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 36% | 25% | 1.4 | So | 4 | 70 |
| Devin Williams F | 6-10 200 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 63% | 0.0 | So | 4 | 81 |
By the end of the season, Dylan Andrews was our best player. He could have a breakout season and be All-Big-Ten.
In a normal year, Sebastian Mack would have come off the bench. Instead he had a lot of responsibility dropped on him. He handled it very well for a freshman and made the All-Pac-12 Freshman Team, but it was still probably too much for him. He probably won't start this season, and he will shoot a lot better.
Lazar Stefanovic was the veteran on the team, even though it was his first season as a Bruin. He was definitely, the most consistent, steady player. He was our leading rebounder.
Aday Mara showed occasional flashes of his offensive talent, but wasn't ready for college basketball. He may not be ready to fully emerge after one off-season in the weight room, but at some point he will explode. It might be in 2025-26, but I expect more incremental improvement.
Brandon Williams was another freshman forced to do too much, too early. He did a decent job of rising to the occasion.
Devin Williams arrived at UCLA with a lot of potential, but not physically ready for major college basketball. Depending on how he develops and Mara develops, he could be our backup center or be burried deep on the bench.
It the first five guys on the list were our starting five next season, we would probably think we could be a good team next year. But wait! There's more!
RECRUITS
(#37 class, #7 in BiG)
A note about the rankings. I used the 247 composite rankings. There is also a 247 ranking. The composite mixes the 247 ranking with others such as the ESPN ranking of incoming freshmen. Usually, they are pretty close, but sometimes there can be a big difference between the two. For example, for Eric Freeny, the 247 ranking is #69 and the composite is #122.
Trent Perry is more normal. He is #30 in the 247 ranking and #33 in the composite.
I have no idea which is a better ranking. I have just always used the composite.
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Eric Freeny | 6-3 180 | SG | 4 | 122 (69) | California, Colorado St, Nevada |
| Trent Perry | 6-4 175 | PG | 4 | 30 (33) | Virginia, Oregon, USC |
Trent Perry led his high school team, Harvard-Westlake, to a second straight California Open Division Championship, averaging 18.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals per game, and shot a blistering 47.2% from three. He was named both the MaxPreps and Gatorade 2023-24 California High School Boys Basketball Player of the Year.
He also was a McDonald's All American and won the three-point shooting contest. He is ranked the #3 point guard prospect in the country by 247.
For anyone expecting the next Lonzo Ball, you need to temper your expectations a bit. He is likely to have a very good freshman year, and he could make the Big Tean All-Freshman Team, but he isn't likely to look like a lottery pick.
Eric Freeny is a talented kid who may not see enough PT to show his ability this season. In normal year, he would play quite a bit. With our depth, he might redshirt.
TRANSFERRING IN
| SOURCE | NATIONAL CLASS RANK | BIG TEN CLASS RANK |
| 247 | 10 | 4 |
| Evan Miya | 20 | 5 |
For a while we were ranked the #1 transfer class in the country. Our ranking has dropped down a bit, but this is still a great class that addresses our needs really well.
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | 247 Transfer Rank |
| Skyy Clark | 6-3 205 | 29 | 28 | 32 | 13 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 41% | 35% | 1.0 | Louisville | Jr | 4 | 34 | 66 |
| Kobe Johnson | 6-6 200 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 11 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 40% | 31% | 1.6 | USC | Sr | 3 | 190 | 6 |
| Eric Dailey, Jr. | 6-8 215 | 32 | 16 | 22 | 9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 1.4 | Oklahoma St | So | 4 | 54 | 42 |
| Tyler Bilodeau | 6-9 220 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 14 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 53% | 35% | 0.8 | Oregon St | Jr | 3 | 220 | 53 |
| William Kyle III | 6-9 230 | 35 | 24 | 28 | 13 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 62% | -- | 1.2 | South Dakota St | Jr | Unranked | 136 | |
| Dominick Harris | 6-3 190 | 24 | 13 | 28 | 14 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 43% | 45% | 0.5 | LMU | Sr | 4 | 74 | 273 |
The first thing I would point out is the "starts" column. Every one of these players is used to starting. Four of them were full-time or part-time starters at Power 6 conference teams. These are not guys who have potential. These are guys who have produced.
Skyy Clark was considered a high major recruit out of high school and was offered by Kentucky. He spent one season at Illinois and his second at Louisville. He was the leading scorer on one of the worst teams in a major conference.
In his last game with the Cardinals he scored 36 against NC State shooting 12 of 17 and going 7 of 9 on three-pointers. He had 5 other games of more than 20 points.
Kobe Johnson was a two-year starter and considered USC's best defensive player. He was on the Pac-12 All-Defense team.
Eric Dailey, Jr. may be the most athletic player at the 4 position at UCLA since Ed O'Bannon (before the knee injury).
According to Ben Bolch:
"A 6-foot-8 forward, Dailey can play both inside and out. Last season, he was the only player in the Big 12 Conference to finish in the top five among freshmen in points (9.3), rebounds (4.8) and assists (1.5) per game despite coming off the bench as a sixth man over the second half of the season to maximize mismatches.
"Dailey made 33.3% of his three-pointers and shot 49.6% overall and notched two double-doubles. His departure came after Oklahoma State fired coach Mike Boynton.
According to 247 Tyler Bilodeau "can shoot from deep, in the midrange and is tough around the basket. Offensively he's a match-up problem -- too big and skilled for most opposing fours to defend both with his back to the basket and facing up. At 6-9 and 220 pounds, he'd even be able to play the post if you went smaller and he could really abuse opposing post defenders with his ability to go outside. He's just a decent athlete and defender, but did fine defensively against power forwards in the Pac-12 this last season."
William Kyle averaged 1.6 blocks per game. Kyle was Summit League defensive player of the year. Kyle blocked 1.6 shots per game last season while shooting a league-best 62.3% on the way to also being selected a member of the league’s first team.
Here's what BRO has to say about Harris:
"He's probably one of the most under-the-radar players to enter the transfer portal this offseason. He's ranked the 275th transfer nationally by 247Sports, but with all due respect, we think that ranking misses the mark. In his junior season, he averaged 14.3 points from the field while shooting 45% from three. That's good enough to be the No. 3 three-point shooter in the country for the 2023-2024 season. He can get off his shot off the dribble, the pull-up and on a quick catch-and-shoot, with deep range. He's well-built, strong, tough, and is a good defender. We've likened him to David Singleton, but more athletic and with a more well-rounded game. He's also been through the wars, starting his career at Gonzaga after being a four-star high school recruit in 2020, to then transferring to LMU and earning a starting spot. He's also 23 years old, so there's maturity with the experience -- making him a very good fit for UCLA and Mick Cronin."
Harris is listed as a senior, but he will have two years of eligibility left.
Some things concern me about Harris:
- He was LMU's leading scorer, and yet he only started 13 games.
- He attemped 261 shots and only had 25 assists.
- He had 46 turnovers to go with those 25 assists.
Hopefully the coaches noticed those things and know what they are doing.
CONCLUSION
This has been the most eventful off-season for UCLA since 1998. when we signed the #1 freshman class in the country. That class may have been over-rated and Steve Lavin was the coach, but that group led us to three consecutive Sweet 16s.
This group of new players may not have the lofty rankings, but it gives us a hell of a lot of talent and depth, and most of that talent is proven.
We have the most talented roster in the B1G with one 5-star and NINE 4-star players. We also have maturity, with 3 seniors and 4 juniors. We have depth at every position.
We can play big. We can play small. Somebody gets injured? Next!
The remarkable thing may be that all the new players came and the old players stayed. They had to know that there would be a logjam at every position. No one is guaranteed playing time. These guys know what Mick Cronin expects of them. They are here to win.
What are the problems?
- We are integrating 8 new players. It takes a while for players to adapt to Cronin's style.
- Our returning lineup lacks 3-point shooting and only one of our incoming transfers is a great three-point shooter.
- Can too many players hurt chemistry?
- We don't have a proven center at the Big Ten level. Wiliam Kyle and Tyler Bilodau are 6-9 and Kyle is making the jump from the Summit League. Mara may not be ready.
These are concerns. This roster has a ton of positives, but it is not perfect.
However UCLA should be fighting with Indiana and Michigan State for the Big Ten Title. I suspect Purdue, Oregon, and USC will be the second tier.
Could we be national title contenders? I think it's too early to say. We might be a year away.
Torvick projects UCLA as the #14 team in the country and the #2 team in the Big Ten. He projects a 23-8 record, and 14-6 in conference.
247 picks the Bruins to finish 1st in the Big Ten.
Lunadri predicts UCLA will be a #5 seed.
Vrooman also picks us to win the conference. He writes:
1. UCLA Bruins
Projected Adjusted Efficiency Margin: +26.26 (+7.96 last year)
Coaching Info: Mick Cronin +3.11 (26th)
5 Highest Rated Players: 6’2 G Dylan Andrews (12.9 pts, 3.7 ast), 6’9 F Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State- 14.3 pts, 5.7 reb), 6’1 G Skyy Clark (Louisville- 13.2 pts, 3.0 ast), 6’3 G Sebastian Mack (12.1 pts, 3.6 reb), 7’3 C Aday Mara (3.5 pts, 1.9 reb)
Last season’s UCLA was maybe the crowning achievement for my model’s ability to pick a team everyone thought would be good and point out some glaring flaws. It was the worst finish at KenPom for a Mick Cronin team since 2009 despite coming off three consecutive top-15 seasons.
This year though is the opposite as my model likes UCLA to get back into the top-5 in the country and thinks they’re the frontrunners for the B1G title in their first season in the conference. Why? Let’s start with the depth. No one has a better bottom of the roster than this Bruins squad. Seven players on the roster were top-75 recruits. Of those that weren’t, four scored 10+ points per game last season. The 5th played 17 minutes per game last season for UCLA. And for their last scholarship they added a four-star freshman (who was outside the top-75).
But wait, there’s more! Because UCLA flipped top-30 recruit Trent Perry from USC after Andy Enfield left and got him to pay his own way so that UCLA has 14 players who all would likely be in the rotation at Washington.
There are downsides here. There’s no way to keep 14 players happy. Plus factor in that they’re being coached by Mick Cronin so they’re likely already miserable. If UCLA gets off to a rough start then this absolutely has potential to blow up in Cronin’s face with just abominable team chemistry.
If they win though, and they should given their roster, then it probably keeps those 5 guys who aren’t playing quiet and means they can withstand any injury or pair of injuries and still feel like their team didn’t get all that much worse.
Despite being the Big Ten favorites, I don’t know that I’d have UCLA as a true title contender. They’re a clear tier behind Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, and Kansas in my model. It’s entirely possible that UCLA doesn’t have a single player average more than 15+ points per game. The elite NBA level star power is missing here. But they also have probably 11 guys capable of averaging 10+ points per game on a good team if given the chance this season and no one in the country can match that.
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Mike Miller had some comments about expecting improved shooting:
"3- point shooting: Other than Perry and Harris, none of the newcomers are "great" 3-point shooters, but compared to last year we have a bunch of shooting Gods especially when you look at the volume of shots taken. Our team 3-point % will almost certainly be 3+ points higher and we took 552 3-pointers last year and, leaving out Kyle, our 5 transfers took 551 3-pointers themselves (Kyle took 1).
"Zero- Foot shooting: UCLA only made 52% of its dunk and layup attempts, 10th worst in D 1 (there was a 24/7 article on this). Bilodeau made 71% of his 0 footers, Kyle 69%, Dailey, 63%, Clark 60%, Johnson 58%... you get the picture. Bona actually only made just 63% and no one else on the team who took 2 or more 0 footers a game even made 50%. The best teams shoot well and often from 3 and from point blank range and UCLA will likely improve a great deal in both areas. We have some dang good FT shooters too.
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MICK CRONIN, UCLA
Profile: One of the better coaches in college basketball, though one whose name doesn’t always resonate widely in that context, Cronin, 52, seemed like a strange fit at UCLA, taking over a glamour program after leading gritty Cincinnati for years. But it’s worked for the most part. UCLA was bad this season, but went to the Final Four right away under Cronin, during the Bubble season. But how does Cronin work long-term with the sort of talent you have to get at UCLA? How does the NIL set-up stack up in L.A.? If UCLA doesn’t hit the ground running in the Big Ten, would Cronin look to move again?
Style of Play: He’s always been a defensive coach, teams built on physicality, rebounding and toughness. That fell off some at UCLA this season, but the year prior it was No. 2 nationally in defensive efficiency.
sweet! Thanks, mh! you rock, sir!!!