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Apr 22, 2020 15:00:27 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 22, 2020 15:00:27 GMT -8
It is early in the season to put too much faith in stats, but you have to work with what you have. Line: UCLA favored by 6.5 to 7.0 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 67% of the time. METRICS
| Utah | UCLA | NET | 85 | 76 | KenPom Rank | 61 | 29 | Adjusted O Rank | 60 | 12 | Adjusted D Rank | 63 | 57 | Sagarin Rank | 89 | 32 | Record | 4-1 | 5-2 | SOS | 299 | 98 |
The computers like UCLA. We are significantly better on offense and we have played a MUCH tougher schedule. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| Utah | UCLA | Scoring Offense | 8 | 5 | FG Percent | 10 | 4 | 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 5 | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 6 | 9 | FT Percent | 3 | 4 | FT Attempts Per Game | 10 | 5 | Assists Per Game | 2 | 3 | Fewest Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
We are a higher-scoring team and we shoot better. 3-point shooting is pretty even. We both get a lot of assists and neither team turns the ball over. We get to the FT line quite a bit more than they do. We need to convert. DEFENSE
| Utah | UCLA | Scoring Defense | 3 | 10 | FG Percent Defense | 8 | 10 | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 3 | Steals Per Game | 3 | 5 | Blocks Per Game | 12 | 6 |
They want to play at a slower pace. They defend the 3 very well, but so do we. We don't shoot the 3 that much, so that helps us. OTHER FACTORS
| Utah | UCLA | Rebound Margin | 10 | 4 | Offensive Rebounds | 10 | 4 | Defensive Rebounds | 10 | 5 | Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1 | 2 |
Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. That should be a big edge for us. PLAYERSUtah goes around 8 deep, and their scoring is pretty balanced. Their two leading scorers are Timmy Allen, and Alfonso Plummer. Allen only shoots 42% from the floor, but he shoots 35% on 3's. They is to make him drive and then don't foul him. Half of Plummer's shots are 3's, and he makes 42% of them. However, he is dangerous from anywhere on the floor. However, Utah definitely plays team ball, so this is not about defending any particular players. You have to play sound TEAM defense. CONCLUSIONUtah was a terrible road team last season. The Utes were 0-9 in Pac-12 road games in 2019-20, losing those nine games by an average of 16.2 points per contest. Of those nine losses, only three of them wound up being single-digit losses. The other six were double-digit blowouts, the most-extreme example being a 39-point loss at Colorado in the Utes’ conference road opener. I think Utah plays much better at home because of the altitude factor. Playing at sea level, levels the playing field. Utah is still on the young side, the third-youngest team in the Pac-12 according to KenPom.com to be exact, but they’re certainly older than a year ago. The starting lineup is likely to consist of sophomore Rylen Jones, 7 foot sophomore Branden Carlson, junior Timmy Allen, senior Alfonso Plummer and either sophomore Mikael Jantunen or junior Riley Battin. Four factors favor the Bruins: 1) better offense, 2) better rebounding, 3) playing at home, and 4) a much tougher schedule. Their 4 wins are over teams with a combined 2-20 record.
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Apr 22, 2020 15:25:41 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 22, 2020 15:25:41 GMT -8
Imagine a team that shoots worse than UCLA and defends worse than UCLA. Now imagine that team is MUCH worse in rebounding. This team has a 4-3 record. Their best win is over a 5-5 team from the A-10. And they have a 13-point loss to a team picked to finish 8th in Conference USA. How much would you say UCLA should be favored by? 5 points? 10 points? 15 points? Now imagine this team is favored over UCLA by ESPN's FPI. And the line is pickem. Welcome to 2021 and Tempe Arizona. ASU'S RECORDASU came into the season with a big reputation, but they haven't lived up to it. They are 4-3, against a similar SOS to ours. ASU has 3 losses. Two of them are respectable, to Villanova by 9 and to San Diego State by 12. (We lost by 15.) Then there is the loss to UTEP by 13. UTEP is 159 in KenPom. Go figure. Their 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. Their best win is over 5-5 Rhode Island and ASU only beat Grand Canyon by 1. They did play their last 3 games without Top 30 freshman Marcus Bagely who was injured on Dec 3. He is expected to be 100% for our game. METRICSLine: Pickem ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 49% of the time.
| ASU | UCLA | NET | 105 | 54 | KenPom Rank | 57 | 33 | Adjusted O Rank | 46 | 12 | Adjusted D Rank | 75 | 66 | Sagarin Rank | 59 | 27 | Record | 4-3 | 7-2 | SOS | 79 | 75 |
The computers like UCLA. We have played a comparable schedule. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| ASU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 3 | 77.1 | 6 | 75,3 | FG Percent | 8 | 44.9% | 3 | 46.3% | 3-Pt Percent | 8 | 32.9% | 5 | 35.5% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 1 | 24 | 9 | 19 | FT Percent | 7 |
| 4 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 4 |
| 7 |
| Assists Per Game | 10 | 11.7 | 2 | 15.7 | Fewest Turnovers | 4 |
| 2 |
|
They are higher scoring, but not by a lot. We are better in just about every offensive category. They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't do it all that well. Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball. This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer. DEFENSE
| ASU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 12 |
| 9 |
| FG Percent Defense | 12 | 45.6 | 9 | 42.5% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 11 | 35.8% | 6 | 29.7% | Steals Per Game | 4 | 7.3 | 11 | 4.8 | Blocks Per Game | 8 |
| 10 |
|
Here is why they are off to such a bad start. They are a crappy defensive team. Unless they are getting a lot of steals they aren't doing a great job of stopping the other team. OTHER FACTORS
| ASU |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 11 | -8.3 | 4 | 6.4 | Offensive Rebounds | 12 | 7.0 | 6 | 10.6 | Defensive Rebounds | 10 |
| 8 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 8 | 1.0 | 3 | 1.5 |
They are getting killed on the boards. They problem is they don't have much of a front line. They have a few guys who are 6-8 or 6-9, but they are all thin. And we are a good rebounding team. The fact that leading rebounder Marcus Bagley has been out hasn't helped. And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs. PLAYERSASU goes 10 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players. | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Remy Martin | 17 | 51% | 28% | Josh Christopher | 17 | 49% | 23% | Alonzo Verge | 15 | 42% | 43% | Marcus Bagley | 13 | 36% | 40% |
Each is one-dimensional. You need to keep Martin and Christopher from driving. You need to get Verge and Bagley off the 3-point line CONCLUSIONWe are better at: - Offense
- Defense
- Rebounding
- A/TO Ratio
So why is this game even competitive? They are very talented. They just don't play that well together.
However, they have been off since December 16th and they got Bagley back, so they have had a lot of time to fix things.
I think we beat the over-rated Sun Devils fairly easily, but we don't seem to beat anyone fairly easily. So look for another close game, but one where team ball beats talented individual players.
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Apr 22, 2020 15:37:32 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 22, 2020 15:37:32 GMT -8
STATE | ELECTORAL VOTES | 538 BIDEN LEAD | 538 BIDEN WIN % | RCP BIDEN LEAD | ECONOMIST BIDEN LEAD | ECONOMIST BIDEN WIN % | Arizona | 11 | 2.8% | 66% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 78% | Florida | 29 | 1.3% | 61% | -0.4% | 3.8% | 80% | Georgia | 16 | 1.0% | 50% | -0.4% | 0.4% | 52% | Iowa | 6 | 1.6% | 50% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 59% | Maine | 2 | 14.3% | 90% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 99% | Maine 2nd | 1 | 2.7% | 53% | 4.0% | | | Michigan | 16 | 8.0% | 94% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 98% | Minnesota | 10 | 9.3% | 94% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 99% | Nebraska 2nd | 1 | 6.1% | 76% | 7.0% | | | Nevada | 6 | 6.1% | 90% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 94% | New Hampshire | 4 | 11.4% | 88% | 11.3% | 10% | 99% | North Carolina | 15 | 1.9% | 63% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 74% | Ohio | 18 | -1.9% | 40% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 47% | Pennsylvania | 20 | 5.1% | 85% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 95% | Texas | 38 | -1.7% | 30% | -2.6% | -2.4% | 28% | Virginia | 13 | 11.7% | 99% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 99% | Wisconsin | 10 | 9.1% | 94% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 98% |
Comments: The Nebraska 2nd district is VERY lightly polled and it could decide the election if Trump wins Pennsylvania and loses Arizona. The Economist guy (G. Elliott Morris) has a model that is more favorable to Biden. He currently gives Biden a 97% chance of winning the election. 538 has it as a more modest 88%. I still consider 538 the best, but both these guys know how to do stats and models. Pennsylvania stills seems like the most worrisome for Biden. However, at this point Biden is more likely to win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, or even Texas than he is lose Pennsylvania. That is not entirely reassuring, since the states would tend to move in synch. Meanwhile Biden's best path is still Michigan, Wisconsin, and either Pennsylvania or Arizona and Nebraska CD2.
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Apr 23, 2020 7:54:47 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 23, 2020 7:54:47 GMT -8
California, Here We Come We play the last in our string of crappy teams. Normally we would expect a blowout. However, this has seemed to be an unusually unpredictable year. And UCLA rarely wins a game easily. However there are two stats which seem like they could be decisive. CALIFORNIA'S RECORDCalifornia was looking like the second-worst team in the league, only beating Washington at home by 6 points. Their best win was a 2-point win over San Francisco also at home. And we beat them by 20 earlier in the year. They lost to Pepperdine, WSU, and twice to Oregon State. Then they go to Salt Lake City and beat Utah. It is by far their best win of the season. And they do it without Matt Bradley. This is all the more impressive because it was a road game. You may not think much of home court without fans, but teams have been playing much better at home. Going into the Cal game, Utah was 5-2 at home and 0-3 on the road. (Cal is 5-2 at home and 1-6 on the road with their only road win being the Utah game.) METRICSLine: UCLA -10 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 77% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 81% of the time
| CALIFORNIA
| UCLA | NET | 176 | 33 | KenPom Rank | 144 | 26 | Adjusted O Rank | 133 | 8 | Adjusted D Rank | 169 | 91 | Sagarin Rank | 143 | 20 | Record | 6-8 | 11-2 | SOS | 86 | 65 |
The computers and the W/L record show that UCLA is a much better team. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| CALIFORNIA |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 11 | 68.5 | 3 | 77.8 | FG Attempted | 12 | 52.6 | 8 | 58.5 | FG Percent | 4 | 45.6% | 3 | 46.6% | 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 33.6% | 1 | 38.6% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 | FT Percent | 11 |
| 3 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 8 |
| 7 |
| Assists Per Game | 8 | 13.1 | 3 | 15.5 | Fewest Turnovers | 9 |
| 3 |
|
UCLA is better than Cal in every offensive stat. Cal is not Washington-bad, but they are not a great offensive team. California is not a high-scoring team. A big part is that they don't attempt a lot of shots. They seem to play at a very slow pace. They don't shoot badly overall, but their 3-point percent isn't very good. I think a key stat is that UCLA is the best 3-point shooting team in the Pac-12. DEFENSE
| CALIFORNIA |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 10 |
| 7 |
| FG Percent Defense | 12 | 45.9% | 7 | 43.2% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 12 | 40.4% | 4 | 31.0% | Steals Per Game | 9 | 5.5 | 11 | 4.9 | Blocks Per Game | 12 |
| 11 |
|
Cal is a crappy defensive team. We aren't all that great, but they are worse in everything except steals. The other key stat is that they are dead last in defending the 3. OTHER FACTORS
| CALIFORNIA |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 9 | -0.4 | 2 | 6.7 | Offensive Rebounds | 12 | 7.3 | 4 | 11.2 | Defensive Rebounds | 8 |
| 7 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 9 | 1.0 | 2 | 1.4 |
Once again, we should have a significant advantage on the boards. And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs. PLAYERS9 Players have played a lot. However, it is not clear how deep they want to go. Several players have played more minutes because other players have missed game, most notably Matt Bradley. At this point we don't know whether Matt Bradley will be available. | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Matt Bradley | 17 | 45% | 32% | Ryan Beteley | 11 | 39% | 38% | Makale Foreman | 11 | 37% | 37% | Andre Kelly | 10 | 62% | 0% | Grant Antecevich | 9 | 45% | 33% | Jarred Hyder | 7 | 44% | 24% | Joel Brown | 5 | 50% | 35% |
Beteley and Foreman are their best outside threats and most of their shots are 3's. 68% of Beteley's shots 72% of Foreman's are 3's. Neither seems like much of a threat from inside the arc. Kelly, OTOH is entirely an inside guy. Antecevich is an unknown. He can go off for 21 in a game or only score 2. CONCLUSIONThis is a familiar refrain. We are better on offense, on defense, and on the boards. That looks like an easy win. Our 3-point shooting should be the difference. We are the best 3-point shooting team in the league. California is the worst team in the league at defending the 3. On the other side of the ball, California shoots a lot of 3's and UCLA is very good at defending the arc. The other big edge for the Bruins is on the boards. The win over Utah, notwithstanding, I think the Bruins get to 8-0 in the Pac-12. We should light it up from the outside and beat them on the boards. We beat them by 20 at home in December. In our win, we shot 57% on 3's and had 9 more rebounds. (This was with Chris Smith who scored 21, but they had Matt Bradley at full strength.) I don't think the change of venue should matter that much.
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Apr 23, 2020 13:16:22 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 23, 2020 13:16:22 GMT -8
Prior to the season I wrote, "Without Elleby, it will be hard to avoid being the worst team in the Pac-12. Fortunately, they will have Oregon State in the league. Cougar fans should hibernate after football season. If there is a football season." Then they started the season with 8 straight wins. Was I wrong? Perish the thought! WSU'S RECORDHowever, you need to look at those 8 wins. - Texas Southern (1-5)
- Eastern Washington (1-4)
- Oregon State (4-4)
- Idaho (0-9)
- Portland State (1-4)
- Montana State (3-3)
- Prairie View A&M (1-4)
- Northwestern State (1-12)
Since then they lost to Arizona in 2 overtimes, beat California who didn't have Matt Bradley, and lost by 15 to Stanford playing without 2 starters. The Arizona result shows they can be dangerous. Every team is dangerous. However, I still think they are one of the worst teams in the league. And this season that is saying a LOT! METRICSLine: UCLA -10 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 89% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 83% of the time.
| WSU | UCLA | NET | 99 | 31 | KenPom Rank | 120 | 28 | Adjusted O Rank | 242 | 11 | Adjusted D Rank | 44 | 70 | Sagarin Rank | 118 | 25 | Record | 9-2 | 9-2 | SOS | 261 | 49 |
Look at that strength of schedule! The defensive numbers may be genuine. They held Arizona to 37% shooting. But Stanford shot 49% against him. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 9 | 70.3 | 5 | 75,9 | FG Percent | 11 | 40.6% | 4 | 46.2% | 3-Pt Percent | 9 | 31.7% | 4 | 35.9% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 23 | 9 | 19 | FT Percent | 10 | 69.4% | 7 | 76.4% | FT Attempts Per Game | 2 | 24 | 5 | 23 | Assists Per Game | 11 | 11.5 | 4 | 14.9 | Fewest Turnovers | 11 |
| 4 |
|
We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in every category. They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either. They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well. They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball. And they turn the ball over a lot. Another problem is they don't have that many assists. They probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball. This team has too many players who want to be the big scorer. DEFENSE
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 10 |
| 7 |
| FG Percent Defense | 1 | 34.2% | 8 | 42.1% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 26.2% | 3 | 29.0% | Steals Per Game | 8 | 6.4 | 11 | 4.5 | Blocks Per Game | 8 |
| 11 |
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 5 |
| 3 |
|
Statistically they are the best team in the Pac-12. However, their terrible OOC schedule has to make you question this. Let's look at how teams with a pulse did against them.
| FG Percent | 3-point Percent | Arizona | 41% | 25% | California | 35% | 24% | Stanford | 49% | 18% |
That's excellent defense against Pac-12 teams. They did great defending the 3. Why did Stanford do so well against them? WSU had no answer for Oscar da Silva inside, and they couldn't even stop 6-11 Lukas Kisunas, who had a career-high 6 points on 3 of 3 shooting. That seems to hold the key to success. Get the ball to Riley and don't shoot a lot of 3's. OTHER FACTORS
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 4 | 5.9 | 2 | 6.2 | Offensive Rebounds | 3 | 11.4 | 5 | 11.1 | Defensive Rebounds | 1 |
| 6 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 11 | 0.8 | 3 | 1.3 |
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds. Their A/TO ratio is terrible. PLAYERSWSU goes 8 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 4 players. I don't think any of the others would play much on a quality Pac-12 team. The big question is the status of Noah Williams. Noah Williams took a bad fall during the Stanford game. His status on Thursday is questionable at this time. If he doesn't go, the starters will be Bonton and four freshman. Whether Williams plays or not, after Bonton, they are VERY young. Here are the four primary scorers. |
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Issac Bonton | Senior | 18 | 36% | 29% | Noah Williams ?? | Sophomore | 12 | 45% | 40% | Efe Abogidi | Freshman | 11 | 50% | 48% | Andrej Jakimovski | Freshman | 8 | 35% | 39% |
Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter. Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio. Noah Williams is a good player. If he doesn't go they will miss him a lot. 6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor. He is probably their best player already as a freshman. 6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 68% of this shots from beyond the arc. You would much rather have him take a 2-point shot. He only makes 22% of them. After than, here are the guys who will play significant roles. Jackson will start and Bamba will start if Williams is out.
| Class | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | FG %
| 3-Point Percent
| Dishon Jackson | Freshman | 12 | 4 | 3 | 43% | 0% | T J Bamba | Freshman | 12 | 3 | 2 | 40% | 25% | Aljaz Kunc | Junior | 17 | 6 | 4 | 41% | 33% | Volodymyr Markovetskyy
| Sophomore | 14 | 4 | 3 | 61% | 0% | Myles Warren | Junior | 13 | 3 | 1 | 35% | 21% | Carlos Rosario | Freshman | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is still big. CONCLUSIONWe are better at most things than WSU. They are good at defense, but terrible on offense. They have no depth and their interior defense is nothing to write home about. If Williams can't go or is less than 100%, they will need to rely on their bench, which is an ugly prospect. Bonton is already the leader for the Issac Bonton Award, given to the player with the worst shot selection in the Pac-12. If he feels like he has to take up the slack, he could get even worse. He could go nuts on us, but he is more likely to shoot them out of the game. Meanwhile, we don't want to leave Jakimovski alone on the 3-point line. NEVER!!! If we eschew the three and pound it inside, we should win easily.
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Apr 23, 2020 13:18:20 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 23, 2020 13:18:20 GMT -8
If you don't want to read the whole preview, let me get to the bottom line. UCLA is good. Washington is bad. UCLA will win. Two years ago, the Huskies won the Pac-12 and Mike Hopkins was the Pac-12 Coach of the Year for the second straight year. Now they are arguably the worst Power 6 team in the country. What happened? Hopkins' teams have always played great defense, but they had trouble scoring. However, now they are combining bad defense with bad offense and are getting killed on the boards. That's a recipe for disaster and that's exactly what this season has been for UW. WASHINGTON'S RECORDWashington has won one game, against Seattle U, who isn't very good. They lost at home to 3-6 Montana. They get blown out a lot. BUT, they only lost by 3 to Oregon when they held them to 38% shooting, but gave up 18 offensive rebounds. METRICSLine: UCLA -10 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 91% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
| WASHINGTON | UCLA | NET | 251 | 27 | KenPom Rank | 147 | 24 | Adjusted O Rank | 185 | 9 | Adjusted D Rank | 125 | 72 | Sagarin Rank | 154 | 24 | Record | 1-10 | 10-2 | SOS | 30 | 63 |
Washington has played a pretty tough strength of schedule, and they have played crappy offense and defense against those teams. BTW, Washington is not the worst Power 6 team according to KenPom. Both Oregon State and Kansas State rank lower. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| WASHINGTON |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 12 | 63.7 | 3 | 77.6 | FG Percent | 12 | 39.3% | 3 | 47.1% | 3-Pt Percent | 12 | 27.9% | 1 | 38.0% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 22 | 2 | 11 | 18 | FT Percent | 2 | 73.6% | 4 | 73.2% | FT Attempts Per Game | 12 | 15 | 5 | 22 | Assists Per Game | 12 | 9.6 | 4 | 15.3 | Fewest Turnovers | 10 |
| 5 |
|
That is one UGLY picture for UW. The old saying about the Washington Senators was "Washington. First in War. First in Peace. Last in the American League. Today it would be "Last in the Pac-12". (The Senators are now the Minnesota Twins.) They don't score. They shoot horribly. They can make free throws, but they don't get to the line. They don't share the ball well. Yuck! DEFENSE
| WASHINGTON |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 11 | 81 | 2 | 67 | FG Percent Defense | 9 | 45.9% | 6 | 44.0% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 9 | 34.7% | 5 | 32.4% | Steals Per Game | 5 | 7.0 | 11 | 4.9 | Blocks Per Game | 5 |
| 10 |
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 3 |
| 8 |
|
Here's the kindest thing I can write. Their defense isn't as bad as their offense. It's not as good as ours. It's not good. But it's not ridiculously bad. OTHER FACTORS
| WASHINGTON |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 11 | -9.4 | 5 | 5.7 | Offensive Rebounds | 4 | 11.4 | 6 | 10.2 | Defensive Rebounds | 11 |
| 7 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 12 | 0.7 | 4 | 1.4 |
More bad numbers. They are terrible on the boards, particularly their own. We should have an offensive rebounding field day. Their A/TO ratio is terrible. PLAYERSYou might think that the problem is that Washington has no talent. It doesn't seem to be the issue. They have a 5-star and five 4-star players. I have heard it said they have the wrong talent. Lots of athletes. Not enough shooters. It is hard to tell how deep Washington goes, since Hopkins keeps changing the lineup looking for one that works. These have been his starters lately. |
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Quade Green | Senior | 15 | 39% | 27% | Jamal Bey | Junior | 8 | 46% | 48% | Erik Stevenson | Junior | 7 | 33% | 35% | Nate Roberts | Sophomore | 6 | 55% | --- | Hameir Wright | Senior | 5 | 29% | 16% |
Quade Green is a very talented player, even if the numbers don't reflect it. He just doesn't have much support. Bey is the one 3-point threat. Other than that it is hard to find much to say about the roster, except I liked Tshonis more before he cut his hair. CONCLUSIONThere's not much to say about this game. The first-place team is playing the last-place team in the league. We are hitting on all cylinders. They may not have any cylinders. This is going to be a hard game to get motivated to play. That may be the biggest risk. But it's hard to see how this isn't a blow-out, even if we are not 100% on our game.
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Apr 23, 2020 14:08:26 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 23, 2020 14:08:26 GMT -8
To quote Ike and Tina Tuner: You know, every now and then I think you might like to hear see something from us nice and easy But there's just one thing. You see, we never ever do nothing nice and easy. We always do it nice and rough. UCLA's team slogan. "We never do anything nice and easy." We have survived most of the "easy" games. The schedule starts to take a step up in difficulty starting with Stanford. However, this game gets much harder to analyze with Stanford potentially missing 4 of their top 6 rotation players. They are #61 in the net, which makes this a Quad 1 game for UCLA, not matter who is playing. STANFORD'S RECORDStanford is 8-5, but I am not sure they have anything I would call a bad loss. Their five losses are: North Carolina Indiana @ Oregon @ Utah @ Colorado The first two were on a neutral court. So they have not lost on their "home court" in Santa Cruz. And they have neutral court win over Alabama who is dominating the SEC. This may be the single best win of any team in the Pac-12 this year. That is probably why they are a bubble team. METRICSLine: UCLA -5½ to -6 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 52% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 47% of the time
| STANFORD | UCLA | NET | 61 | 30 | KenPom Rank | 47 | 28 | Adjusted O Rank | 87 | 9 | Adjusted D Rank | 12 | 81 | Sagarin Rank | 55 | 23 | Record | 8-5 | 12-2 | SOS | 45 | 65 |
The computers like UCLA a bit, but Stanford has the home-court advantage. Stanford looks like it plays excellent defense which has been a staple under Jerrod Haase. This looks like it is a matchup of strength on strength one way. UCLA's excellent offense against Stanford's excellent defense. And Stanford's OK offense goes up against UCLA's OK defense. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| STANFORD |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 9 | 72.4 | 4 | 76.6 | FG Percent | 5 | 45.4% | 3 | 46.6% | 3-Pt Percent | 10 | 31.1% | 1 | 38.6% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 12 | 17 | 11 | 18 | FT Percent | 6 |
| 5 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 4 |
| 7 |
| Assists Per Game | 10 | 12.5 | 4 | 15.1 | Fewest Turnovers | 12 | 15.8 | 4 | 11.1 |
UCLA is better than Stanford, particularly in 3-point shooting, however, neither team shoots a ton of 3's. The biggest advantage seems to be in PG play. Stanford doesn't have a lot of assists and they turn it over a lot. The problem is they don't have a natural point guard. You might think this is because Daejon Davis has been out for 6 games, but he isn't a true PG, either. His A/TO ratio is only 1.3. It's too bad UCLA doesn't get a lot of steals. DEFENSE
| CALIFORNIA |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 10 |
| 8 |
| FG Percent Defense | 2 | 39.1% | 8 | 43.2% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 7 | 33.0% | 4 | 31.0% | Steals Per Game | 3 | 7.1 | 11 | 4.9 | Blocks Per Game | 7 |
| 11 |
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Stanford is an excellent defensive team. Holding teams to 39% from the field is terrific. They aren't as effective at defending the three. They also get a lot of steals. If we adopt the same offensive strategy we used against Cal, we are in trouble. We cannot keep shot-faking and driving it into the lane. We have to be willing to shoot the 3. (Note: If they are short-handed, trying to get them into foul trouble might be part of the strategy.) OTHER FACTORS
| STANFORD |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 6 | 2.7 | 2 | 6.7 | Offensive Rebounds | 8 | 9.5 | 4 | 11.0 | Defensive Rebounds | 3 |
| 6 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 10 | 0.8 | 4 | 1.4 |
UCLA is better on the boards, but unlike some recent games, our edge is not overwhelming. They will compete with us. And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs. (Note: 3 of their 4 assist leaders could be out, which would make our advantage overwhelming.) PLAYERSStanford has been plagued by injuries. Only three players have played in every game this season. This makes their record even more impressive. Since I don't know who will play Saturday so I will post stats for quite a few players. The players who are definitely available are in bold. | Availability | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Oscar da Silva |
| 19 | 62% | 38% | 7 | 2 | Daejon Davis | Questionable | 13 | 41% | 31% | 4 | 3 | Ziaire Williams | Questionable
| 13 | 37% | 32% | 6 | 3 | Jaiden Delaire |
| 10 | 46% | 21% | 5 | 1 | Bryce Wills | Questionable
| 9 | 56% | 20% | 4 | 3 | Spencer Jones | Questionable
| 7 | 40% | 37% | 4 | 1 | Michael O'Connell |
| 4 | 50% | 35% | 2 | 2 | Neal Begovich | Questionable
| 3 | 100% | 100% | 1 | 0 | Noah Taitz |
| 3 | 57% | 33% | 1 | 0 | James Keefe |
| 2 | 29% | 0% | 3 | 0 | Lukas Kisunas |
| 1 | 42% | 0% | 2 | 0 |
The most striking thing is that there are only two guards available, O'Connell and Taitz. They are both freshmen. And there isn't a ton of outside shooting. da Silva is by far their best player and may be the best player in the Pac-12. He can score inside and outside. However, much of his inside scoring depends on David, Wills, and Jones penetrating and feeding it to him. Depending on who can go, he might have problems getting free inside, And without a lot of outside threats, we are likely to double him. Wills is primarily a penetrator. He isn't much of an outside threat. Davis is a good player who has been hindered a lot by playing out of position. He is a natural 2 guard forced to play the point. He isn't great at it, and his shooting has suffered, too. Jones is the opposite, their primary 3-point threat. Delaire is a good player, but isn't much of an outsider shooter. McConnell was meant to be their backup PG. He is probably being pushed into service a lot more because of injuries. CONCLUSIONThis game totally depends on who plays. With their full roster, this is one of the toughest game of the year. It is the tossup the computers say it is. We need to keep Wills and David out of the lane and defend Jones on the perimeter. On the other end of the floor, we have to avoid driving to nowhere and take the outside shots that are available. OTOH, if all the questionable guys are out, they will have a VERY weak backcourt, and this should be an easy win. Of course, predicting easy wins for this team has been a fools errand so far this season. So I will just say it is a win.
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Apr 23, 2020 14:19:37 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 23, 2020 14:19:37 GMT -8
We have played the pretenders. It is time to play the contenders, starting with Oregon. When you look at Oregon's stats, only one thing leaps off they page. They generate a lot of turnovers. Otherwise they are good at everything but not great. OTOH, they are not terrible at anything. As you might expect from a Dana Altman team, they play good basketball in all area. OREGON'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | UCLA | 2-3 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 4-0 | OREGON | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 4-0 |
Oregon hasn't has a signature win this season. Their best wins are over Seton Hall, Stanford (at home), and at Utah. OTOH, they haven't had any bad losses with most of their roster either. They did lose to Oregon State, but that was without two starters. (Yes, I know. Stanford over UCLA.) They have proven they are a good team, but there are no signs they are a great team. METRICSLine: UCLA ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 61% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 64% of the time
| OREGON
| UCLA | NET | 46 | 32 | KenPom Rank | 29 | 26 | Adjusted O Rank | 36 | 10 | Adjusted D Rank | 49 | 84 | Sagarin Rank | 33 | 30 | Record | 9-3 | 12-2 | SOS | 92 | 60 |
The computers think we are somewhat better than Oregon. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| OREGON |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 4 | 76.0 | 3 | 76.3 | FG Attempted | 1 | 61 |
| 58 | FG Percent | 2 | 46.6% | 3 | 46.2% | 3-Pt Percent | 5 | 34.7% | 1 | 38.4% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 23 | 9 | 18 | FT Percent | 9 |
| 4 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 10 |
| 7 |
| Assists Per Game | 7 | 13.7 | 4 | 14.8 | Fewest Turnovers | 6 |
| 4 |
|
Oregon plays at the fastest pace in the Pac-12. They also shoot a high percentage. This is not because they are a great shooting team. Since they get quite a few turnovers off their press, they also get easy baskets. They shoot a lot of 3's, and shoot them pretty well. They don't get to the line too much, which is good. They don't shoot FT's that well. DEFENSE
| OREGON |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 3 |
| 7 |
| FG Percent Defense | 5 | 41.6% | 7 | 42.9% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 2 | 29.3% | 4 | 31.9% | Steals Per Game | 1 | 8.1 | 10 | 5.3 | Blocks Per Game | 3 |
| 11 |
|
Oregon plays a fast pace, but they are also not giving up a lot of points. There are two factors: - They don't allow teams to shoot a high percentage, particularly from the arc
- They lead the league in forcing turnovers
- As is typical for Oregon, they block a lot of shots. However, their leading shot blocker, Dante is done for the season.
They generate turnovers with a very good full-court press for most or all of the game. This will be true no matter who is playing. It isn't quite an all-out press, but they are not just slowing down the other team. They want to steal the ball. They will typically trap the first person to get the ball, and if they hold on to it too long, that can be trouble, particularly if it is Tyger who can't see over the taller players. This is why they lead the conference in steals per game. UCLA is pretty good at not turning the ball over. We will need to be against Oregon. We are the best three-point shooting team, even if we don't shoot a lot of them. They defend the three very well. Something has to give. OTHER FACTORS
| OREGON |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 5 | 4.3 | 2 | 7.3 | Offensive Rebounds | 7 | 9.7 | 4 | 11.0 | Defensive Rebounds | 7 |
| 6 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 7 | 1.1 | 4 | 1.3 |
We should have a significant advantage on the boards, particularly with Dante, their starting center, out. PLAYERSOregon has been a well-balanced team, with lots of players scoring and rebounding. At this point, I don't know who will play. At this point only 4 players have played in all 12 games, their best player Will Richardson hasn't played at all. Their next-best player, Chris Duarte, missed the Oregon State game along with LJ Figueroa and we don't know if either of them will play Thursday. Taking all that into account, here are stats for the players. | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Will Richardson (Last Season) |
| 30 | 11 | 48% | 47% | Chris Duarte | 11 | 34 | 19 | 55% | 46% | Eugene Omoruyi | 12 | 30 | 17 | 46% | 31% | Eric Williams, Jr | 12 | 32 | 12 | 40% | 34% | L J Figueroa | 10 | 29 | 10 | 47% | 26% | Amauri Hardy | 12 | 29 | 6 | 39% | 25% | Chandler Lawson | 12 | 18 | 5 | 52% | 43% | Jalen Terry | 8 | 16 | 4 | 37% | 38% | Aaron Estrada | 7 | 16 | 4 | 42% | 21% | Frank Kepnang | 2 | 5 |
| 50% | 0% |
Duarte is having a great season, and is considered a Pac-12 POY candidate. He is dangerous from anywhere on the floor. Omoruyi has been a surprise to most of the league, but probably should not have. He put up good numbers at Rutgers in the Big Ten. He plays a lot bigger than his 6-6 size and he is very good around the basket. He may be a better 3-point shooter than 31% indicates. Hardy is the primary ball handler and has a respectable 2.4 A/TO ratio. Jalen Terry may be 5-11 and is lightning quick, but he is still adjusting to the college game. Kepnang is a highly-rated center prospect who finished school early and just enrolled at Oregon in December. He has a ton of potential, but with limited practices, he is just learning Altmann's system. CONCLUSIONAgain, a lot depends on who plays for Oregon. Even more depends on how well we take care of the ball. NOTE: We need to beware of the trap game coming up. With three games coming up against Oregon and SC, it might be easy to ignore Oregon State. Along with most of the world, I thought they would be terrible. They are not. Danger!
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Apr 24, 2020 7:56:21 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 24, 2020 7:56:21 GMT -8
While Oregon continues to duck us, we move on to Oregon State. (Just for fun, think about all the ways to use "Beaver" and "Tinkle" in the same sentence.) I haven't given Wayne Tinkle a lot of credit in the past for his coaching, but I think he has done a good job here. This is not a terribly talented roster. but they are playing hard and playing well. OREGON STATE'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | UCLA | 2-3 | 1-0 | 5-0 | 4-0 | OREGON ST | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 4-2 |
What do you make of a team with two Quad 1 wins and two Quad 4 losses? You might discount the win over Oregon. Oregon without Chris Duarte and LJ Figueroa. Without him, Oregon struggled to score. And this is their only road win. However, they also have a two-point win over SC. SC didn't help their cause shooting 55% from the FT line, but it was still an impressive win. Then there are losses to Wyoming and Portland. 10-5 Wyoming isn't terrible, but 3-10 Portland is. But maybe we shouldn't read too much into those early-season losses. Oregon State was putting together a team with a lot of new faces, and it may have taken some time for them to get used to playing with each other. THE other OSU is stayed close with SC in the rematch. This is a decent basketball team. We shouldn't sleep on the Beavers. METRICSLine: UCLA -11.5 ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 86% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 86% of the time
| OREGON ST
| UCLA | NET | 146 | 31 | KenPom Rank | 127 | 27 | Adjusted O Rank | 89 | 12 | Adjusted D Rank | 175 | 85 | Sagarin Rank | 130 | 24 | Record | 7-6 | 12-3 | SOS | 101 | 60 |
The computers think we are a lot better than Oregon State. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| OREGON ST |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 7 | 73.0 | 3 | 76.3 | FG Attempted |
| 58 |
| 58 | FG Percent | 10 | 42.3% | 3 | 46.2% | 3-Pt Percent | 4 | 35.6% | 1 | 38.4% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 6 | 21 | 10 | 18 | FT Percent | 2 |
| 4 |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 5 |
| 6 |
| Assists Per Game | 2 | 16.0 | 4 | 14.8 | Fewest Turnovers | 1 |
| 4 |
|
Oregon State is a decent offensive team. In particular they shoot well from the outside. However, they are not as good an offensive team as we are. Also, their overall FG% isn't that good. They are however, very good at sharing the ball. DEFENSE
| OREGON ST |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 9 |
| 5 |
| FG Percent Defense | 9 | 43.4% | 8 | 43.1% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 2 | 30.0% | 4 | 31.7% | Steals Per Game | 8 | 6.1 | 10 | 5.3 | Blocks Per Game | 7 |
| 11 |
|
I find this puzzling. KenPom ranks them as VERY poor in defensive efficiency. And they do give up a lot of points. But their defensive stats don't seem terrible and they are very good at defending the arc. And their 3-point defense is terrific. They will be facing our excellent 3-point offense. Fortunately we don't take a ton of 3-point shots and in this game maybe we should continue that. OTHER FACTORS
| OREGON ST |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 4 | 2.3 | 3 | 6.7 | Offensive Rebounds | 3 | 11.1 | 4 | 11.0 | Defensive Rebounds | 8 |
| 5 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1 | 1.45 | 3 | 1.3 |
UCLA should have an edge on the boards. Their A/TO margin is better. PLAYERSWayne Tinkle has successfully hit the free agent market transfer portal, and his seems to be going in that direction rather than filling his roster with 4-year players. Welcome to the new world of college basketball. Oregon State may be playing so well, because they have something that the rest of the Pac-12 can only dream about. Roster stability. Their top 5 scorers and 7 of the top 8 have played in every game. There may not be another Pac-12 team that can say this. | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Ethan Thompson | 14 | 34 | 16 | 40% | 34% | 4 | Jarod Lucas | 14 | 26 | 13 | 39% | 43% | 2 | Warith Alatishe | 14 | 25 | 9 | 46% | 8% | 8 | Zach Reichle | 14 | 25 | 8 | 41% | 34% | 4 | Maurice Calloo | 14 | 21 | 7 | 39% | 39% | 3 | Gianni Hunt | 12 | 21 | 5 | 37% | 39% | 2 | Dearon Tucker | 14 | 14 | 4 | 55% | 0% | 3 | Rodrigue tha Andala | 14 | 13 | 4 | 45% | 0% | 5 | Roman Silva | 12 | 9 | 4 | 66% | 0% | 2 |
Their players are mostly specialists. Their 3-point shooters (Thompson, Lucas, Calloo, and Hunt) are not that good inside the arc. Their bigs (Alatishe, Tucker, Andala) are inside threats, but not much danger away from the bucket. Thompson is the primary ball handler, but has only a decent 1.7 A/TO ratio. Lucas is their 3-point specialist. Over 60% of his shots are from outside the arc. He has a quick release and will shoot the 3 off the dribble. Nicholls State transfer Alatishe has turned out to be a very good player. JUCO Calloo is another good 3-point shooter. Another JUCO is Rodrigue tha Andela, who is not related to Andre the Giant or Smoky the Beat. However, the JUCO player is a decent player off the bench who seems bigger than his 6-6 size. Averaging 5 rebounds in 13 minutes is excellent. CONCLUSIONIn spite of what the computers say, when you look over the stats, there isn't much reason to heavily favor the Bruins over the Ducks. They have good numbers on offense and defense, and our edge on the boards is not overwhelming. This is a solid basketball team that plays hard. I see only three reasons to favor the Bruins. 1) Their stats may be a little suspect because of their weak schedule. 2) The game is at Pauley. OSU On The Road: 1-2 UCLA At Home: 8-0 Their only win over a quality team is over Oregon without Duarte. I am not sure that is a quality team. Nonetheless, all indications are that OSU is playing a lot better than they were earlier in the year. I will take the Bruins at home, but I don't think this is an easy win. (With this team, predicting an easy win over anyone would be silly.)
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Apr 24, 2020 8:04:43 GMT -8
Post by blindness on Apr 24, 2020 8:04:43 GMT -8
Row 1 column 1 | Row 1 column 2 | Row 1 column 3 | Row 2 column 1 | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 3 column 1 | Row 3 column 2 | Row 3 column 3 | Row 4 column 1 | Row 4 column 2 | Row 4 column 3 |
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Apr 24, 2020 8:07:47 GMT -8
Post by blindness on Apr 24, 2020 8:07:47 GMT -8
Firstname | Lastname | Age |
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Jill | Smith | 50 | Eve | Jackson | 94 |
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Apr 24, 2020 15:44:07 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 24, 2020 15:44:07 GMT -8
This is Andy Enfield's best team, and may be the best team he will ever have at USC. On the other hand, this is Mick Cronin's best team, but isn't likely to be nearly as good as some future teams. Enough about the future. It's time to focus on Saturday. USC'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | UCLA | 2-3 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 4-0 | USC | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7-1 | 3-0 |
USC's best wins are over BYU and road wins over Arizona and Stanford. Their 3 losses are to Colorado, UConn, and at Oregon State. Neither their wins nor their losses are surprising. They have won 9 of their last 10, with Oregon State as the only loss in 2021. However, they have had their struggles. Less than a month ago, they needed OT to beat UC Riverside at Galen. They are a very good team, but not unbeatable. METRICSLine: USC -3 ESPN Predictor: UCLA win 33% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 37% of the time
| USC
| UCLA | NET | 23 | 36 | KenPom Rank | 19 | 33 | Adjusted O Rank | 13 | 14 | Adjusted D Rank | 45 | 76 | Sagarin Rank | 27 | 26 | Record | 14-3 | 13-3 | SOS | 87 | 74 |
The computers generally favor SC over us, but not by a ton. We are comparable on offense, but they are a little better on defense. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| USC |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 2 | 76.3 | 6 | 75.1 | FG Attempted | 3 | 59 | 8 | 58 | FG Percent | 1 | 46.6% | 5 | 45.5% | 3-Pt Percent | 9 | 33.3% | 2 | 37.3% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 10 | 18.7 | 9 | 18.9 | FT Percent | 12 | 65.4% | 4 | 74.6% | FT Attempts Per Game | 2 | 24 | 6 | 21 | Assists Per Game | 6 | 13.9 | 4 | 14.6 | Fewest Turnovers | 7 | 12.5 | 3 | 11.1 |
Our offensive stats match up pretty well with those of USC. We both play around the same pace, although they play a little faster. We shoot the 3 better, we shoot free throws quite a bit better, and we turn the ball over less. They get to the line a lot, but they are really bad at shooting them. They turn the ball over more and have fewer assists. Advantage UCLA, if only a modest one. DEFENSE
| USC |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense | 2 | 66.1 | 4 | 67.1 | FG Percent Defense | 2 | 39.8% | 8 | 43.1% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 9 | 33.9% | 4 | 31.9% | Steals Per Game | 12 | 4.5 | 9 | 5.4 | Blocks Per Game | 1 | 5.7 | 11 | 2.6 |
There are a very good defensive team, but this is mostly due to their interior defense. They don't defend the arc that well. The elephant in the preview is blocks. They block a LOT of shots. And blocks don't just keep a player from scoring. They can intimidate players and discourage them from driving. They can also lead to fast breaks and easy baskets. Overall, advantage USC, but not if this turns into a 3-point shooting contest. OTHER FACTORS
| USC |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 2 | 6.5 | 3 | 6.4 | Offensive Rebounds | 1 | 12.9 | 3 | 11.3 | Offensive Rebound Yielded | 9 | 10.6 | 2 | 8.3 | Defensive Rebounds | 1 | 27.1 | 5 | 25.9 | Assist-Turnover Ratio | 7 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.3 |
In sprite of their size, USC is not a rebounding monster like Arizona. They get a lot of rebounds, but they give up a lot of rebounds, too. We match up pretty well on the boards. Although SC is very good on their offensive glass, but we don't give up that many offensive rebounds. That looks like a push. Our A/TO margin is better. PLAYERSAndy Enfield had to hit the free agent market transfer portal, since he was only returning 3 players from last year's team, and only had a 2-man recruiting class. And one of this two recruits was Boubacar Coulibaly, who has barely played, but may have the coolest first name in college basketball. (Otherwise Enfield has little name imagination with two Mobleys and two Isaiahs.) So he brought in 6 transfers and 5 of them have played well for him. That has left him with a solid 9-man rotation. And he has had nice roster stability with 8 of them playing in every game. | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Evan Mobley | 17 | 34 | 17 | 58% | 30% | 9 | Tahj Eaddy | 17 | 32 | 13 | 45% | 35% | 3 | Drew Peterson | 17 | 29 | 10 | 43% | 40% | 5 | Isaiah Mobley | 17 | 28 | 10 | 46% | 26% | 7 | Isaiah White | 17 | 21 | 8 | 47% | 32% | 4 | Chevez Goodwin | 17 | 15 | 6 | 54% | 0% | 4 | Ethan Anderson | 9 | 19 | 5 | 36% | 42% | 1 | Noah Bauman | 17 | 15 | 5 | 40% | 33% | 1 | Max Agbonkpolo | 17 | 27 | 4 | 32% | 21% | 3 |
For the most part, we want them to shoot 3's rather than get in the lane. The three exception are Drew Peterson, Tahj Eaddy, and Ethan Anderson. Clearly their star is Evan Mobley. He is tall, skilled, and mobile, but not exactly a banger. He doesn't seem to like physical play. He can make the 3, but we would like to see him hanging around the arc. Mobley will post up sometimes, but that is not really his game. He would rather be somewhere on the wing when he gets the ball and work from there. I know a lot of people worry about Evan Mobley getting our bigs into foul trouble. However, he does seem to draw quite a few fouls. He has shot 105 free throws in 17 games. That is around 6 free throws per game. However, he is only making around 58% of his free throws. Santa Clara transfer Tahj Eaddy is a dangerous scorer as he showed in the closing minutes against Stanford. Rice Transfer Drew Peterson is their best outside shooter, but he is a solid all-around player. Isaiah Mobley isn't going to score by creating his own shot, but moves well without the ball. He also doesn't like to bang. Wofford transfer Chevez Goodwin does a good job as the third big in the rotation. Ethan Anderson is coming back from injury, and is a dangerous outside shooter. Max Agbonkpolo has been playing better of late, but I would be happy to see him shoot from anywhere on the floor. If there is a weakness on their roster it is the lack of a true PG. 6-9 Drew Peterson plays that role a lot, but he is no Kyle Anderson. Ethan Anderson is not a true PG, but he has also played the role. The lack of a PG probably contributes to their low A/TO ratio. CONCLUSIONThe computers think this is likely to be the toughest game remaining on our schedule, and I see no reason to doubt that. However, we are not overmatched. The statistics show two well-matched teams. So why is SC a solid favorite? Because the road is dark and full of terrors. This may not be a normal road game with no crowd and no overnight travel, but teams play better on their home floor. UCLA On The Road: 3-2 USC At Home: 13-1 There is one other factor that may balance the scales. Mick Cronin is just a better coach than Andy Enfield. I see this game as a nail-biter. That isn't exactly going out on a limb. All our games are nail-biters.
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Apr 25, 2020 8:02:25 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on Apr 25, 2020 8:02:25 GMT -8
Prior to our last game against the Cougars I wrote, "If we eschew the three and pound it inside, we should win easily. " We went 9 of 16 on threes, and 75% of our shots were inside the arc. We won by 30. I may just be a blind squirrel. Right now, we don't know the status of Hill and Riley. At this point a blind squirrel may have a better idea the outcome than I do. But let's take a look at the game anyway. WSU'S RECORDWSU started the season with 8 straight wins against: - Texas Southern (5-7)
- Eastern Washington (7-4)
- Oregon State (9-7)
- Idaho (0-15)
- Portland State (3-8)
- Montana State (7-5)
- Prairie View A&M (7-4)
- Northwestern State (4-14)
Since then they have gone 3-8 with road wins over Cal, Washington, and a severely short-handed Oregon. In January, we beat them by 30. Before our last game I called them one of the worst teams in the league. I have since upgraded my opinion of them. There are a lot of reason to worry about this game. Let's start with this UCLA on the Road: 3-3 WSU at Home: 8-3 HOWEVER, those 8 home wins were in those 8 non-conference games listed above. They are 0-3 in conference games at home. They lost to Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. None of those teams are chopped liver, but still it's 0-3. METRICSLine: UCLA - TBD. ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 72% of the time. Torvick: UCLA wins 65% of the time.
| WSU | UCLA | NET | 113 | 38 | KenPom Rank | 115 | 37 | Adjusted O Rank | 214 | 21 | Adjusted D Rank | 41 | 74 | Sagarin Rank | 109 | 30 | Record | 11-8 | 13-4 | SOS | 98 | 64 |
We are better in every metric, except for defense. And their offensive efficiency is TERRIBLE. OFFENSERanks in the Pac-12
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Offense | 10 | 67.9 | 6 | 75.3 | FG Percent | 12 | 41.5% | 7 | 44.7% | 3-Pt Percent | 6 | 34.2% | 4 | 36.1% | 3-Pt Attempts Per Game |
| 22 |
| 19 | FT Percent | 10 | 68.7% | 4 | 73.8% | FT Attempts Per Game |
| 21 |
| 20 | Assists Per Game | 11 | 11.0 | 6 | 14.4 | Fewest Turnovers | 11 | 15.0 | 2 | 10.9 |
Our offense has not been as good lately. this is probably due to the loss of Chris Smith and the start of Pac-12 play. Also, our schedule has gotten tougher. We are better in every offensive category. That's because they are bad in almost every category. They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't shoot them well. They don't shoot 2's well either. They get to the line a lot, but they don't shoot FT's well. They don't have a lot of assists, since they play a lot of 1-on-1 ball. And they turn the ball over a lot. DEFENSE
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Scoring Defense |
| 66.8 |
| 67.1 | FG Percent Defense | 2 | 40.1% | 8 | 42.9% | 3-Pt Percent Defense | 1 | 31.2% | 4 | 32.1% | Steals Per Game | 7 | 6.2 | 9 | 5.4 | Blocks Per Game | 6 |
| 11 |
| Fewest Fouls Committed | 7 | 19.3 | 6 | 19.1 |
They are better than we are in every offensive category. OTHER FACTORS
| WSU |
| UCLA |
| Rebound Margin | 7 | 1.8 | 3 | 5.6 | Offensive Rebounds | 4 | 10.7 | 3 | 11.1 | Defensive Rebounds | 3 |
| 5 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 12 | 0.7 | 3 | 1.3 |
When you miss a lot of shots, you get a lot of defensive rebounds. Their A/TO ratio is terrible. That's what happens when you don't get a lot of assists and you turn the ball over a lot. PLAYERSWSU has changed their rotation a bit since the first game. TJ Bamba has been basically dropped from the rotation and guards DJ Rodman and Ryan Rapp are getting a more PT. They still go 8 or 9 deep, but their scoring is mostly done by 3 players: Bonton, Williams, and Abogidi. Here are the four primary scorers. |
| Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Issac Bonton | Senior | 18 | 39% | 32% | Noah Williams | Sophomore | 13 | 44% | 43% | Efe Abogidi | Freshman | 9 | 49% | 33% | Dishon Jackson
| Freshman
| 6 | 47% | 0% | Andrej Jakimovski | Freshman | 6 | 31% | 31% | DJ Rodman | Sophomore | 5 | 41% | 42% | Ailjaz Kunc | Junior | 5 | 43% | 35% | Ryan Rapp | Sophomore | 4 | 34% | 30% | Volodymyr Markovetskyy
| Sophomore | 3 | 66% | 0% |
WSU has some very good 3-point shooters. The problem is that they don't always take most of the 3's. Bonton, Abogidi, Jakimovski, and Rapp will take a lot of them. Of course, any of them can go off. Bonton is their leading scorer, but that is mostly because he takes over 25% of their shots. He can get hot, but he is NOT a good shooter. Bonton is their primary ball-handler, but has a mediocre 1.1 A/TO ratio. Noah Williams is a very good player. I think he is their best player, but he defers a bit too much to Bonton. 6-10 freshman Abogidi is going to be a star in the Pac-12. He is VERY athletic and has skills. He leads them in rebounding, has 2 blocks per game, and can score from anywhere on the floor. 6-6 freshman Jakimovski takes 70% of this shots from beyond the arc. Earlier in the year he was deadly, but he has been terrible in recent games. Volodymyr Markovetskyy is 7-1, 270 who is big. He is also know for having "yy" in his name. Other than that, he is slow, but he is still big. If he gets the ball in deep, he can score. THE STRANGE CASE OF ISSAC BONTONWe have all seen enough of Bonton to be scared of him. In our first game this year, he went off for 23 points on 59% shooting and 60% on 3's. He took difficult shots and they all seemed to go in. He looked like he could score at will. He has been in double figures in 15 straight games. However, he also has games like he had against Arizona State, where he took 25 shots and made 5 of them. That included 1 of 9 from the arc. He had 5 assist and 11 turnovers. Against Arizona he shot 29% while accumulating 1 assist and 8 turnovers. He can also score 34 points on 62% shooting, with 8 assists and 2 turnovers. The question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on any given night? The bigger question is: Which Issac Bonton will show up on Thursday night? I have no clue. CONCLUSIONI don't want to draw a lot of conclusions yet since we don't know the status of Hill and Riley. Normally, I would expect a relatively easy win, but nothing is normal this year.
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May 10, 2020 12:48:28 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on May 10, 2020 12:48:28 GMT -8
Row 1 column 1 | 2016 538 4 DAYS PRIOR | 2016 RCP 4 DAYS PRIOR | FINAL MARGIN | 2020 538 4 DAYS PRIOR | 2020 RCP 4 DAYS PRIOR | Row 1 column 7 | Row 1 column 8 | Michigan | Row 2 column 2 | Row 2 column 3 | Row 2 column 4 | Row 2 column 5 | Row 2 column 6 | Row 2 column 7 | Row 2 column 8 | Pennsylvania | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | Row 3 column 7 | Row 3 column 8 | Wisconsin | 4.3% | 5.5% | 0.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% |
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May 10, 2020 12:49:20 GMT -8
Post by mhbruin on May 10, 2020 12:49:20 GMT -8
| PLAYER | STATUS | Arizona | Terrell Brown Jr. |
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| Ira Lee |
| Arizona State | Kimani Lawrence |
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| Remy Martin |
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| Alonzo Verge |
| California | Grant Anticevich | Returning |
| Ryan Betley |
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| Makale Foreman | Returning | Colorado | Maddox Daniels |
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| Jeriah Horne |
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| D'Shawn Schwartz |
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| Dallas Walton |
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| McKinley Wright |
| Oregon
| Chris Duarte |
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| LJ Figueroa |
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| Amauri Hardy |
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| Eugene Omoruyi |
| Oregon State | Alfred Hollins |
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| Zach Reichle |
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| Roman Silva |
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| Ethan Thompson |
| Stanford | Daejon Davis |
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| Oscar da Silva |
| UCLA | Chris Smith |
| Utah | Alfonso Plummer |
| USC | Tahj Eaddy |
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| Chevez Goodwin |
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| Isaiah White |
| Washington | Quade Green |
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| Hameir Wright |
| Washington State | Isaac Bonton |
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