Post by mhbruin on Mar 20, 2023 13:52:16 GMT -8
They're Back!!!
Once again the Bulldogs / Zags stand in our way. (Can't they just figure out one nickname and stick with it? And while were off the subject, why would you tell Wildcats to "bear down"?)
Even without Jaylen Clark this is still probably Mick Cronin's best team. This is not Mark Few's best team.
Nonetheless this Gonzga team is very good. So are the Bruins. Is another classic on the horizon?
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -19.5
Line: UCLA -2 (2 point favorites win 55% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 66% of the time
Nolan Prediction: Gonzaga Wins 68-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 60% of the time, 76-73.
If you ignore Warren Nolan, the computers seem think UCLA is a modest favorite. Let's ignore Warren Nolan.
Again, the Bruins are rated slightly higher.
GONZAGA'S RECORD
Gonaga's best wins are over Alabama, Saint Mary's (twice), Kentucky, TCU, and Michigan State. You can say the West Coast Conference isn't that good, but that's an impressive group of wins.
Their losses are to Loyola-Marymount (at home), Baylor, Saint Mary's, Texas, and Purdue.
Other than that one bad loss, every team they lost to was in the tournament.
You might wonder how they lost to Loyola-Marymount. LMU held them to 67 points. When held to 74 points or less, the Bulldogs are 2-5. When they score 75 or more, they are 28-0.
So, all we need to do to beat the Zags is hold them to 74 points or less. Simple, right?
Gonzaga has won their last 11 games. We have won 13 of our last 14.
They are 6-3 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS GONZAGA'S DEFENSE
.
We've generally had trouble with teams with good defenses. Gonzaga isn't one of them. They are mediocre at just about everything, except protecting their defensive boards.
Of the 16 teams left in the field, they are the 3rd worst defense (accoring to KenPom), trailed only by Princeton and Miami. Meanwhile we are the 8th most efficient offense among the 16 teams.
Look at all those Gonzaga defensive numbers I have highlighted in bold. Having a hard time finding them? It's like "Where's Waldo". There's only one decent number. And there are a lot of numbers where they are ranked in the bottom half of all NCAA teams. This is not a good defense.
We may not have an elite offense, but we are one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
Very few teams in the country shoot a higher percentage of their shots from inside the arc than we do, and Gonzaga doesn't defend the two-pointer all that well.
When we shoot from beyond the arc, the Zags defend the three even worse.
Gonzaga plays mostly man defense, and they like to double the ball handler quite a bit. However, they don't generate a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. If they double us, outside, I think they will help us more than them.
OTOH, I expect them to double Jaimie whenever he takes the ball inside. If he doesn't try to force things, he should be able to find open shooters.
They like to play fast. We won't. That should work in our favor as long as we get back on defense.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS GONZAGA'S OFFENSE
Here's the matchup of the tournament: The #1 offense in the country vs the #2 defense (unless Gonzaga plays Tennessee who has the #1 defense) .
As you might expect for the #1 offense, they are really good at just about everything on the offensive end. They do most of their damage inside the arc. They are one of the best in the country at two-point shooting and 67% of their shots are twos. However, when they want to shoot threes, they are very good at that too.
They don't turn the ball over and they don't get their shots blocked. We haven't been forcing as many turnover since we lost Jaylen Clark, so I wouldn't count on that helping us.
About the only thing they don't do really well is crash the offensive boards.
They are an offensive juggernaut, but we are a defensive iceberg. This should be a titanic struggle.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
I wouldn't worry too much about rebound margin. When a team plays a very fast pace, they are going to be more rebounds.
Gonzaga is a better on the defensive boards. We are better on the offensive, boards, so rebounding is pretty even. However, we may need to hit the offensive boards less, since they are such a good fast-break team.
Usually, we have an advantage in A/TO ratio, buy Gonzaga is one of the few teams who is slightly better than we are. The only other elite teams in A/TO ratio in the Sweet 16 are Marquette (#4) and Houston (#16),
We have a better turnover margin and we are better at extra scoring chances, although neither edge is huge.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Gonzaga is the 51st tallest team in the US. That shouldn't be a big issue for us, since ten Pac-12 teams are taller than the Zags.
Gone are the days when Mark Few put together excellent teams with a bunch of foreign players and under-recuited talent. This team has 6 top 100 players including a McDOnald's All-American. There's no Jalen Suggs or Chet Holmgen on the roster, but this team is very talented. As you might imagine for the #1 offense in the counry, they have a LOT of weapons.
They have also been very fortunate about injuries. Their top 8 players have missed a total of one game among them. I don't know if Gregg was hurt, or Few just decided not to play him, but he's the only guy to miss a game.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Gonzaga does a lot of things by committee. Although Hickman is the point guard, they all handle the ball a lot and most of the team has a good to very good A/TO ratio. Timme leads the team in assists.
In fact Drew Timme leads the team in almost everything, scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocks. He didn't want to hog everything, so he was kind enough to let Anton Watson lead the team in steals.
Although it seems like Drew Timme has been there forever, he is only a 4th-year senior. You may think of Timme as a low post player. He is excellent at posting, up with great footwork around the basket and a nice hook shot. However, he also will set up at the top of the key and drive to the hoop.
He is very good at drawing fouls. He doesn't lead the nation in free throw attempts. We have already met Drew Pember of UNC-Asheville, who is #1. We only sent Pember to the line 4 times.
However, Timme is #9 in free throw attempts, just behind Zach Edey. If he has a weakness, he is only a 64% shooter when he gets to the line.
Timme will occasionally shoot a 3-point shot. Since he is only 13% from the arc, we shouldn't mind.
Julian Strawther is their second-leading scorer and is their best three-point shooter among the starters. He's had 7 games of 20 or more, including a 40-point explosion against Portland. He's a dangerous scorer everywhere on the floor.
Anton Watson shoots an astounding 61% from the floor, which may be the highest percentage for a non-center in the country. He shoots a higher percentage than Zach Edey. He's a decent three-ponit shooter as well, although he won't attempt a lot of them.
Rasir Bolton is on his third school, starting at Penn State in 2018 and then playing at Iowa State. He is 23 years old. He is more dangerous outside the arc than inside.
Nolan Hickman it the fifth starter. Like Bolton he is not as dangerous a scorer, but he is still dangerous. He has the best A/TO ratio on the team.
Malachi Smith started at Wright State in 2018 and played two seaons at UT-Chatanooga, before transferring to Gonzaga. He is by far the most dangerous three-point shooter on the team. We always need to know where #13 is when he is on the floor.
Ben Gregg mostly backs up Timme, but he is a capable center. He can score, shoot the three, rebound, and block shots.
So far Hunter Sallis hasn't lived up to his lofty recruiting ranking, but he will provide some bench minutes for the backcourt.
CONCLUSION
There are no bad teams left and no easy games for us. Gonzaga certainly isn't an easy win.
The Bulldogs are a sscary team. They have so many weapons on offense. However, they are not all that great on the defensive end.
Lots of experts predict we will win, becuase our defense will slow down their high-powered offense. However, that is not where we have an edge. It will be at the other end of the floor.
This is a winnable game, but we may need our best game of the year to do it.
I see this game as a 9 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
Once again the Bulldogs / Zags stand in our way. (Can't they just figure out one nickname and stick with it? And while were off the subject, why would you tell Wildcats to "bear down"?)
Even without Jaylen Clark this is still probably Mick Cronin's best team. This is not Mark Few's best team.
Nonetheless this Gonzga team is very good. So are the Bruins. Is another classic on the horizon?
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2 (2 point favorites win 55% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 66% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 61% of the time 75-72.
Nolan Prediction: Gonzaga Wins 68-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 60% of the time, 76-73.
If you ignore Warren Nolan, the computers seem think UCLA is a modest favorite. Let's ignore Warren Nolan.
| Gonzaga | UCLA | |
| NET | 6 | 3 |
| KenPom Rank | 7 | 2 |
| Sagarin Rank | 6 | 3 |
| Torvick Rank | 8 | 3 |
| SOS | 58 | 43 |
| Record | 30-5 | 31-5 |
Again, the Bruins are rated slightly higher.
GONZAGA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 9-5 | 9-0 | 6-0 | 7-0 |
| Gonzaga | 7-4 | 5-0 | 9-1 | 8-0 |
Gonaga's best wins are over Alabama, Saint Mary's (twice), Kentucky, TCU, and Michigan State. You can say the West Coast Conference isn't that good, but that's an impressive group of wins.
Their losses are to Loyola-Marymount (at home), Baylor, Saint Mary's, Texas, and Purdue.
Other than that one bad loss, every team they lost to was in the tournament.
You might wonder how they lost to Loyola-Marymount. LMU held them to 67 points. When held to 74 points or less, the Bulldogs are 2-5. When they score 75 or more, they are 28-0.
So, all we need to do to beat the Zags is hold them to 74 points or less. Simple, right?
| Gonzaga Road / Neutral | 9-6 |
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 15-4 |
Gonzaga has won their last 11 games. We have won 13 of our last 14.
They are 6-3 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS GONZAGA'S DEFENSE
.
We've generally had trouble with teams with good defenses. Gonzaga isn't one of them. They are mediocre at just about everything, except protecting their defensive boards.
Of the 16 teams left in the field, they are the 3rd worst defense (accoring to KenPom), trailed only by Princeton and Miami. Meanwhile we are the 8th most efficient offense among the 16 teams.
Gonzaga Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 75 | 21 |
| Torvick Rank | 83 | 21 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 74 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 40 of 363 | 241 |
| FG Percent | 44.4% | 46.1% |
| Effective FG Percent | 51.7% (245) | 51.2% (141) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 35.1% (253) | 34.8% (130) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 39.3% (256) | 29.1% (340) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 51.0% (215) | 50.8% (152) |
| FT Percent | 72.8% (140) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 25.7% (63) | 33.6% (31) |
| Assist Percent | 45.4% (57) | 50.9% (168) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.3% (158) | 15.1% (18) |
| Block Percent | 9.5% (127) | 6.2% (12) |
Look at all those Gonzaga defensive numbers I have highlighted in bold. Having a hard time finding them? It's like "Where's Waldo". There's only one decent number. And there are a lot of numbers where they are ranked in the bottom half of all NCAA teams. This is not a good defense.
We may not have an elite offense, but we are one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
Very few teams in the country shoot a higher percentage of their shots from inside the arc than we do, and Gonzaga doesn't defend the two-pointer all that well.
When we shoot from beyond the arc, the Zags defend the three even worse.
Gonzaga plays mostly man defense, and they like to double the ball handler quite a bit. However, they don't generate a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. If they double us, outside, I think they will help us more than them.
OTOH, I expect them to double Jaimie whenever he takes the ball inside. If he doesn't try to force things, he should be able to find open shooters.
They like to play fast. We won't. That should work in our favor as long as we get back on defense.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS GONZAGA'S OFFENSE
Here's the matchup of the tournament: The #1 offense in the country vs the #2 defense (unless Gonzaga plays Tennessee who has the #1 defense) .
UCLA Defense | Gonzaga Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 2 | 1 |
| Torvick Rank | 2 | 1 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 87 |
| FG Percent | 40.5% | 52.6% |
| Effective FG Percent | 46.8% (28) | 58.3% (1) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.4% (34) | 38.3% (9) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 39.7% (264) | 32.8% (302) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.8% (45) | 58.7% (2) |
| FT Percent | 70.2% (243) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.6% (141) | 31.2% (93) |
| Assist Percent | 52.2% (218) | 50.4% (178) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (6) | 14.7% (11) |
| Block Percent | 12.1% (47) | 5.7% (5) |
As you might expect for the #1 offense, they are really good at just about everything on the offensive end. They do most of their damage inside the arc. They are one of the best in the country at two-point shooting and 67% of their shots are twos. However, when they want to shoot threes, they are very good at that too.
They don't turn the ball over and they don't get their shots blocked. We haven't been forcing as many turnover since we lost Jaylen Clark, so I wouldn't count on that helping us.
About the only thing they don't do really well is crash the offensive boards.
They are an offensive juggernaut, but we are a defensive iceberg. This should be a titanic struggle.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
| Gonzaga | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 31.2% (93) | 31.6% (31) |
| Defensive Rebound Percent | 74.3% (63) | 72.3% (142) |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.5 to 1 (10) | 1.4 to 1 (18) |
| Turnover Margin | 2.9 (32) | 5.5 (2) |
| Extra Scoring Chances | 4.2 (26) | 8.2 (1) |
I wouldn't worry too much about rebound margin. When a team plays a very fast pace, they are going to be more rebounds.
Gonzaga is a better on the defensive boards. We are better on the offensive, boards, so rebounding is pretty even. However, we may need to hit the offensive boards less, since they are such a good fast-break team.
Usually, we have an advantage in A/TO ratio, buy Gonzaga is one of the few teams who is slightly better than we are. The only other elite teams in A/TO ratio in the Sweet 16 are Marquette (#4) and Houston (#16),
We have a better turnover margin and we are better at extra scoring chances, although neither edge is huge.
Advantage: Even
PLAYERS
Gonzaga is the 51st tallest team in the US. That shouldn't be a big issue for us, since ten Pac-12 teams are taller than the Zags.
Gone are the days when Mark Few put together excellent teams with a bunch of foreign players and under-recuited talent. This team has 6 top 100 players including a McDOnald's All-American. There's no Jalen Suggs or Chet Holmgen on the roster, but this team is very talented. As you might imagine for the #1 offense in the counry, they have a LOT of weapons.
They have also been very fortunate about injuries. Their top 8 players have missed a total of one game among them. I don't know if Gregg was hurt, or Few just decided not to play him, but he's the only guy to miss a game.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Drew Timme F | Sr | 6-10 235 | 4-star 43 | 35 | 31 | 21 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 62% | 13% | 9% | 1.2 |
| Julian Strawther G | Jr | 6-7 205 | 4-star 72 | 35 | 31 | 15 | 7.9 | 1.3 | 48% | 42% | 49% | 0.9 | |
| Anton Watson F | Sr | 6-9 225 | 4-star 48 | 35 | 29 | 11 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 61% | 33% | 17% | 2.0 | |
| Rasir Bolton G | Sr 5 | 6-3 185 | 3-star 205 | 35 | 26 | 11 | 2.6 | 44% | 39% | 44% | 2.3 | ||
| Malachi Smith G | Jr | 6-4 205 | Unranked | 35 | 21 | 9 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 54% | 51% | 41% | 1.8 | |
| Nolan Hickman G | So | 6-2 180 | 4-star 33 | 35 | 28 | 8 | 3.1 | 44% | 37% | 51% | 2.4 | ||
| Ben Gregg F | So | 6-10 225 | 4-star 86 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 10.0 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 51% | 39% | 48% | 1.1 |
| Hunter Sallis G | So | 6-5 180 | 5-star 21 | 35 | 17 | 4 | 1.4 | 46% | 27% | 33% | 2.1 | ||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Gonzaga does a lot of things by committee. Although Hickman is the point guard, they all handle the ball a lot and most of the team has a good to very good A/TO ratio. Timme leads the team in assists.
In fact Drew Timme leads the team in almost everything, scoring, rebounding, assists, and blocks. He didn't want to hog everything, so he was kind enough to let Anton Watson lead the team in steals.
Although it seems like Drew Timme has been there forever, he is only a 4th-year senior. You may think of Timme as a low post player. He is excellent at posting, up with great footwork around the basket and a nice hook shot. However, he also will set up at the top of the key and drive to the hoop.
He is very good at drawing fouls. He doesn't lead the nation in free throw attempts. We have already met Drew Pember of UNC-Asheville, who is #1. We only sent Pember to the line 4 times.
However, Timme is #9 in free throw attempts, just behind Zach Edey. If he has a weakness, he is only a 64% shooter when he gets to the line.
Timme will occasionally shoot a 3-point shot. Since he is only 13% from the arc, we shouldn't mind.
Julian Strawther is their second-leading scorer and is their best three-point shooter among the starters. He's had 7 games of 20 or more, including a 40-point explosion against Portland. He's a dangerous scorer everywhere on the floor.
Anton Watson shoots an astounding 61% from the floor, which may be the highest percentage for a non-center in the country. He shoots a higher percentage than Zach Edey. He's a decent three-ponit shooter as well, although he won't attempt a lot of them.
Rasir Bolton is on his third school, starting at Penn State in 2018 and then playing at Iowa State. He is 23 years old. He is more dangerous outside the arc than inside.
Nolan Hickman it the fifth starter. Like Bolton he is not as dangerous a scorer, but he is still dangerous. He has the best A/TO ratio on the team.
Malachi Smith started at Wright State in 2018 and played two seaons at UT-Chatanooga, before transferring to Gonzaga. He is by far the most dangerous three-point shooter on the team. We always need to know where #13 is when he is on the floor.
Ben Gregg mostly backs up Timme, but he is a capable center. He can score, shoot the three, rebound, and block shots.
So far Hunter Sallis hasn't lived up to his lofty recruiting ranking, but he will provide some bench minutes for the backcourt.
CONCLUSION
There are no bad teams left and no easy games for us. Gonzaga certainly isn't an easy win.
The Bulldogs are a sscary team. They have so many weapons on offense. However, they are not all that great on the defensive end.
Lots of experts predict we will win, becuase our defense will slow down their high-powered offense. However, that is not where we have an edge. It will be at the other end of the floor.
This is a winnable game, but we may need our best game of the year to do it.
I see this game as a 9 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!