Post by mhbruin on Mar 16, 2023 18:18:36 GMT -8
With the short turnaround and a ton of games to watch, this may be a bit more superficial than my typical preview.
Northwestern is like a bunch of teams we have played this year. They are very good on defense, but not very good on offense. We usually beat teams like that, but not easily.
They are coached by Chris Collins, son of long-time NBA coach Doug Collins. He probably knows how to prepare a team.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -19.5
Line: UCLA -8 (17.5 point favorites win 80% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 85% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 71-62
KemPom: UCLA wins 77% of the time, 67-59.
The computers think pretty highly of Northwestern, perhaps a bit more highly than I do. Accoring to KenPom, they are about as good as USC.
NORTHWESTERN'S RECORD
Northwestern has some good wins, including over Purdue, at Indiana, at Michigan State, and at Rutgers.
Their worst losses are to Pittsburgh, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, all at home.
This is probably what the computers like. Some very good wins, and no bad losses.
Of course, we have 8 Quad 1 wins, too and no Quad 2 losses.
How did they beat Purdue? They didn't shoot that well. They rarely do. However, they held the Boilers to 35% / 23% shooting. Zach Eady scored 24 on 7 of 10 shooting, but the rest of the team was 10 for 37, which is 27%. 22 of those 37 shots were three-pointers. If we shoot 22 three-pointers we will lose. We don't shoot 22 three-pointers. Mick will go bonkers if we come close.
They have lost 4 of their last 6 games.
They are 7-5 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS NORTHWESTERN'S DEFENSE
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Northwestern plays aggressive man defense. They pressure the ball and double the ball quite a bit.
Northwestern wins with defense, but they are only good at certain things. They don't defend the three very well, but they are very good inside the arc. In that regard, Northwestern should like playing our offense, since we are heavily dependent on two-point shooting.
Howver, their biggest strengths are generating turnover sand blocking shots. In that regard, we are not a good matchup for them, since we don't turn the ball over or get our shots blocked.
61% of the baskets scored off of Northwestern are assisted. That tells us that we should move the ball with the pass against them, rather than relying too much on dribble.
Advantage: Even or small UCLA edge.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS NORTHWESTERN'S OFFENSE
We're #1!! In defense, accoring to KenPom.
Northwestern needs to be good on defense, because they are terrible on offense. Don't let their hot shooting against Boise State fool you. They are a BAD shooting team. They shot this well 10 times in 33 games. And they are about to go up against the most efficient defense in the country.
They are bad at three-point shooting and even worse at two-point shots, so it's probably a good thing that they shoot a lot of threes.
To give you an idea of how bad their shooting is, they are very proud of holding other teams to 41.2% shooting. However, their own shooting is even worse at 40.6%.
The two things they do well is not turn the ball over and shoot free throws. They only turned the ball over 7 times against Boise State. We've never had an opponent commit fewer than 8 turnovers, and only two teams have committed fewer than 10.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Usually, we have an advantage in these areas, but the only area where were are better is offensive rebounding.
In other areas, this is pretty even. In terms of turnovers and extra scoring chances, they are almost as good as we are.
Advantage: UCLA. small
PLAYERS
You have to give Coach Collins some credit. He has put together an NCAA tournament team with some high-quality wins without a bunch of 5-star players. In fact he only has one 4-star player and no Top 100 players. He has done this by getting them to buy into playing really hard, particularly on defense.
The Wildcats go 8 men deep. However, they don't rely on their bench too much. They are #284 in the country in bench minutes. They really are a 6-man team.
Most of the time they will go with 4 or 5 wings. One thing that is very unusual is they don't have any great ball handlers, but they don't have any really bad ones either. Everyone's A/TO ratio is betwwen 1.8 and 1.1.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
They typically play 4 wings, all of whom shoot quite a few threes, but no one is very good at it. In fact, no one who shoots a lot is a very good shooter.
Boo Buie is their big star. He leads the team in scoring and assists, but he isn't great at anything. He doesn't shoot very well. His A/TO ratio is far from elite. We have 3 guys with a better A/TO ratio.
He is GREAT at one thing: Going to his right. He seems to always go to his right and shoot with his right hand. Brendan Haywood kept saying during the broadcast how Boise State kept letting him do this. Somehow, I don't believe Mick Cronin will ignore this fact.
Chase Audige is a little better shooter than Buie, but not by a lot. He leads the team in steals.
Ty Berry had a great game against Boise, going 3 of 4 from beyond the arc, but he is still a 29% three-point shooter. He hasn't shot 75% from the arc in any other game this season. In his previous game he was 1 for 6.
I would not expect a repeat preformance, but he will try. 62% of his shots are threes.
Brooks Barnhize is a nice looking freshman, and he is the best shooting among their guards. 42% is enough to be their best-shooting guard.
Matthew Nicholson is their starting center, and he leads the team in rebounds and blocks, but he is not much of a scorer.
Nick Martinelli may look like a real 3-point threat, but he has only attempted 8 all season.
CONCLUSION
Some how the whole is greater than the sum of the parts for Northwestern. That's a sign of good coaching.
They are not exceedingly talented. They don't score very well. Yet somehow the Wildcats scratch their way to a lot of wins and second place in the B1G.
I expect us to prepare to force Buie to go to his left and to shut down the Purdue offense, such as it is. The big question is whether we can score on them.
This will be an ugly, grinding, physical game. In other words, right up our alley. We love games like this!
I see this game as a 6 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
Northwestern is like a bunch of teams we have played this year. They are very good on defense, but not very good on offense. We usually beat teams like that, but not easily.
They are coached by Chris Collins, son of long-time NBA coach Doug Collins. He probably knows how to prepare a team.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -8 (17.5 point favorites win 80% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 85% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 74% of the time 65-59.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 71-62
KemPom: UCLA wins 77% of the time, 67-59.
| Northwestern | UCLA | |
| NET | 41 | 3 |
| KenPom Rank | 37 | 2 |
| Sagarin Ran | 35 | 2 |
| Torvick Rank | 31 | 3 |
| SOS | 40 | 33 |
| Record | 22-11 | 30-5 |
The computers think pretty highly of Northwestern, perhaps a bit more highly than I do. Accoring to KenPom, they are about as good as USC.
NORTHWESTERN'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 8-5 | 9-0 | 6-0 | 7-0 |
| Northwestern | 8-6 | 4-5 | 1-0 | 9-0 |
Northwestern has some good wins, including over Purdue, at Indiana, at Michigan State, and at Rutgers.
Their worst losses are to Pittsburgh, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, all at home.
This is probably what the computers like. Some very good wins, and no bad losses.
Of course, we have 8 Quad 1 wins, too and no Quad 2 losses.
How did they beat Purdue? They didn't shoot that well. They rarely do. However, they held the Boilers to 35% / 23% shooting. Zach Eady scored 24 on 7 of 10 shooting, but the rest of the team was 10 for 37, which is 27%. 22 of those 37 shots were three-pointers. If we shoot 22 three-pointers we will lose. We don't shoot 22 three-pointers. Mick will go bonkers if we come close.
| Northwestern Road / Neutral | 9-6 |
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 13-5 |
They have lost 4 of their last 6 games.
They are 7-5 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS NORTHWESTERN'S DEFENSE
.
Northwestern plays aggressive man defense. They pressure the ball and double the ball quite a bit.
Northwestern Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 18 | 21 |
| Torvick Rank | 17 | 33 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 74 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 306 of 363 | 226 |
| FG Percent | 41.2% | 45.8% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.2% (78) | 50.0% (165) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 33.6% (128) | 34.7% (141) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 42.1% (323) | 29.1% (340) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.6% (40) | 50.4% (180) |
| FT Percent | 72.2% (163) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.0% (163) | 33.7% (32) |
| Assist Percent | 60.9% (355) | 50.9% (168) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 21.5% (30) | 15.3% (27) |
| Block Percent | 13.0% (23) | 6.3% (16) |
Northwestern wins with defense, but they are only good at certain things. They don't defend the three very well, but they are very good inside the arc. In that regard, Northwestern should like playing our offense, since we are heavily dependent on two-point shooting.
Howver, their biggest strengths are generating turnover sand blocking shots. In that regard, we are not a good matchup for them, since we don't turn the ball over or get our shots blocked.
61% of the baskets scored off of Northwestern are assisted. That tells us that we should move the ball with the pass against them, rather than relying too much on dribble.
Advantage: Even or small UCLA edge.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS NORTHWESTERN'S OFFENSE
We're #1!! In defense, accoring to KenPom.
UCLA Defense | Northwestern Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 1 | 100 |
| Torvick Rank | 2 | 87 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 68 |
| FG Percent | 40.5% | 40.6.4% |
| Effective FG Percent | 46.8% (28) | 47.4% (317) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.4% (34) | 32.2% (275) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 39.7% (264) | 41.1% (78) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.8% (45) | 46.8% (308) |
| FT Percent | 75.4% (50) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.6% (141) | 28.3% (191) |
| Assist Percent | 52.2% (218) | 54.3% (85) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (6) | 14.7% (13) |
| Block Percent | 12.1% (47) | 9.8% (272) |
Northwestern needs to be good on defense, because they are terrible on offense. Don't let their hot shooting against Boise State fool you. They are a BAD shooting team. They shot this well 10 times in 33 games. And they are about to go up against the most efficient defense in the country.
They are bad at three-point shooting and even worse at two-point shots, so it's probably a good thing that they shoot a lot of threes.
To give you an idea of how bad their shooting is, they are very proud of holding other teams to 41.2% shooting. However, their own shooting is even worse at 40.6%.
The two things they do well is not turn the ball over and shoot free throws. They only turned the ball over 7 times against Boise State. We've never had an opponent commit fewer than 8 turnovers, and only two teams have committed fewer than 10.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
| Northwestern | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | -1.3 | 4.9 |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.3% (199) | 34.1% (25) |
| Defensive Rebound Percent | 72.0% (163) | 71.7% (173) |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| Turnover Margin | 4.5 (7) | 5.7 (2) |
| Extra Scoring Chances | 6.1 (6) | 8.5 (1) |
Usually, we have an advantage in these areas, but the only area where were are better is offensive rebounding.
In other areas, this is pretty even. In terms of turnovers and extra scoring chances, they are almost as good as we are.
Advantage: UCLA. small
PLAYERS
You have to give Coach Collins some credit. He has put together an NCAA tournament team with some high-quality wins without a bunch of 5-star players. In fact he only has one 4-star player and no Top 100 players. He has done this by getting them to buy into playing really hard, particularly on defense.
The Wildcats go 8 men deep. However, they don't rely on their bench too much. They are #284 in the country in bench minutes. They really are a 6-man team.
Most of the time they will go with 4 or 5 wings. One thing that is very unusual is they don't have any great ball handlers, but they don't have any really bad ones either. Everyone's A/TO ratio is betwwen 1.8 and 1.1.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Boo Buie G | Sr | 6-2 180 | 3-star 318 | 32 | 35 | 17 | 4.5 | 40% | 31% | 42% | 1.8 | ||
| Chase Audige G | Sr | 6-4 200 | Unranked | 32 | 34 | 14 | 2.8 | 37% | 33% | 45% | 1.2 | ||
| Ty Berry G | Jr | 6-3 185 | 3-star 149 | 32 | 28 | 9 | 1.2 | 34% | 29% | 62% | 1.4 | ||
| Robbie Beran F | Sr | 6-9 215 | 4-star 108 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 38% | 34% | 52% | 1.1 |
| Brooks Barnhizer G | So | 6-6 215 | 3-star 157 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 42% | 33% | 40% | 1.3 | |
| Matthew Nicholson C | Jr | 7-0 255 | 3-star 274 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 10.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 59% | 1.5 | ||
| Nick Martinelli F | Fr | 6-7 200 | Unranked | 18 | 20 | 3 | 0.3 | 49% | 50% | 1.2 | |||
| Tydus Verhoeven F | Sr | 6-9 235 | 3-star 423 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 56% | 1.5 | |||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
They typically play 4 wings, all of whom shoot quite a few threes, but no one is very good at it. In fact, no one who shoots a lot is a very good shooter.
Boo Buie is their big star. He leads the team in scoring and assists, but he isn't great at anything. He doesn't shoot very well. His A/TO ratio is far from elite. We have 3 guys with a better A/TO ratio.
He is GREAT at one thing: Going to his right. He seems to always go to his right and shoot with his right hand. Brendan Haywood kept saying during the broadcast how Boise State kept letting him do this. Somehow, I don't believe Mick Cronin will ignore this fact.
Chase Audige is a little better shooter than Buie, but not by a lot. He leads the team in steals.
Ty Berry had a great game against Boise, going 3 of 4 from beyond the arc, but he is still a 29% three-point shooter. He hasn't shot 75% from the arc in any other game this season. In his previous game he was 1 for 6.
I would not expect a repeat preformance, but he will try. 62% of his shots are threes.
Brooks Barnhize is a nice looking freshman, and he is the best shooting among their guards. 42% is enough to be their best-shooting guard.
Matthew Nicholson is their starting center, and he leads the team in rebounds and blocks, but he is not much of a scorer.
Nick Martinelli may look like a real 3-point threat, but he has only attempted 8 all season.
CONCLUSION
Some how the whole is greater than the sum of the parts for Northwestern. That's a sign of good coaching.
They are not exceedingly talented. They don't score very well. Yet somehow the Wildcats scratch their way to a lot of wins and second place in the B1G.
I expect us to prepare to force Buie to go to his left and to shut down the Purdue offense, such as it is. The big question is whether we can score on them.
This will be an ugly, grinding, physical game. In other words, right up our alley. We love games like this!
I see this game as a 6 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!