Post by mhbruin on Mar 12, 2023 16:20:43 GMT -8
UNC-Ashville is not in the same league as the Bruins, both literally and figurately. However, they are worth a little worry. They have two of the top 14 three-point shooters in the country, and a big guy who is #14 in the country in scoring.
However, they will have to face KenPom's #1 defense in the country.
BTW, their coach's outfit makes him look like he is is a crew member of the Star Ship Enterprise.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -19.5
Line: UCLA -17.5 (17.5 point favorites win 99.9% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 70-56
KemPom: UCLA wins 95% of the time, 76-58.
We have a better record against a MUCH tougher schedule. Ashville played one of the weakest schedules in the country.
According to Team Rankings, the Big South is the 26th best conference out of 33.
That's not to say Ashville is a terrible team. There are 11 Power 5 teams that rank lower in KenPom than the Bulldogs including both Oregon State and California.
UNC-ASHEVILLE'S RECORD
UCNA's Quad 1 win is at the real USF (San Francisco, not South Florida). It was their first game of the season, and it took two overtimes. Their next best win is over Longwood.
In their other Quad 1 game, they lost by 34 at Arkansas.
They have losses to Winthrop, South Carolina Upstate, and Georgia State.
They have won 9 straight and 18 of their last 19.
They are 11-4 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UNC-ASHVILLE'S DEFENSE
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Asheville plays mostly straight man defense, although they will throw in a little bit of zone. They will occsionally press and double the ball. When there is pentration into the lane, they agreesively collapse on the ball, leaving them vulnerable to a pass to an open man.
Ashville's defense isn't terrible, but it is not up to the standards of the really good Pac-12 defenses that have given us problems. They excel at one thing, defending the three-point shot. However, that should not help them much. We are near the bottom of teams that depend on the three.
Overall they are pretty good at holding the other team to low shooting percentages, but they are not very good at keeping the other team from shooting more shots. They give up a lot of offensive rebounds and they turn the ball over a lot. We are the perfect team to exploit both of those things.
We are the nightmare team for their defense.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UNC-ASHEVILLE'S OFFENSE
We're #1!! In defense, accoring to KenPom.
UNCA runs mostly a 5-out offense, with lots of cutting to the basket.
UNC-Asheville is a good shooting team, particularly from the arc, however we are very good at defending the arc.
They are nowhere near as good inside the arc.
Then they have some weaknesses, and UCLA's defense looks perfect to exploit them. They aren't very good on the offensive boards, but their real problem is they turn the ball over A LOT, and they get a lot of shots blocked. Those are bad qualities for going up against the UCLA defense.
One other thing to remember. The Bulldogs got those offensive numbers going up against Big South defenses. They are not exactly lock-down defenses. The best defensive efficiency is Gardner -Webb at #58. The rest range from #199 to #338 (out of 358).
As a team they are very good at free throws, but it depends a lot on who is shooting them. They have two rotation players who shoot over 83% and three that shoot under 50.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Here's where things start to look really bad for the Bulldogs.
We have a significant advantage on the boards.
We are a much better ball-handling team.
We have massive edges in turnover margin and extra scoring chances.
AND all of this is with their stats accumulated in the Big South Conference. Simply put, we will get a lot more shots than they will.
Advantage: UCLA - HUGE.
PLAYERS
The Bulldogs go 8 men deep, but they rely heavily on their top two players for scoring. They are #126 in the country in bench minutes.
HOWEVER, in their conference championship game, only 6 players played more than 4 minutes. Expect to see a 6-man rotation with a little of Caldwell, and Sephney rarely seeing the floor.
They are a veteran team. Their rotation consists of 5 seniors and 3 juniors.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Most of their offense come from three guys, Pember, Jones, and Abee. Burgess is their point guard. Pember is a threat from inside and outside, whil Jones and Abee are very dangerous outside shooters. The other guys will mostly get their points from backdoor cuts.
Drew Pember, a transfer from Tennessee is the Big South player of the year and defensive player of the year. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks. He leads the nation in free-throw attempts and makes, and he makes 83% of them. It will be important for our centers not to foul when he tries to shoot. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Pember is not a post-up scorer. He is not a physical player, and he doesn't set particularly good screens.
He typically starts each possession at the top of the key. If he gets the ball he will either shoot it from there or try to take his man to the basket. He will also cut to the basket without the ball.
Perhaps their favorite play is to give him the ball at the top of the circle and having the other four players spread out leaving the lane open. Then he uses a quick first step to drive down the empty lane, either getting a layup or getting fouled.
He doesn't have a post-up game. Don't think of him as Tubelis of Arizona, but think more of him as one of the Mobley brothers from USC, but less skilled around the basket.
Pember didn't have much success at Tennessee. After a lackluster first seaon, he only played 3 minutes a game for the Volunteers as a sophomore. However, he has found success in Ashville.
Tajion Jones is the leading scorer in Ashville history, and leads them in career three-point shots. He's their version of Boogie Ellis, but he shoots the three-point shot a lot better. He is #3 in the country at three-point shooting. He's capable of making three-point shots off the bounce and off balance, even if well-guarded. He is dangerous.
He's attempted 342 shots and has 41 assists on the year, so it seems once he has the ball in his hands he is far more likley to shoot it than make a great pass.
Fletcher Abee is another deadly 3-point shooter. He has a quick release. You don't go under a screen against him. He would be #14 nationally in three-point shooting (just ahead of LJ Cryer of Baylor), if he had enough attempts. He's scored in double figures in 12 of his 31 games. (If Fletcher Abee had an old music disc, it would be an Abee CD.)
Nicholas McMullen is not a stretch 4. He has only attempted 6 three-pointers all year, making 1 of them. He is a good rebounder, and a lot of his offense will come from an offensive rebound.
Caleb Burgess leads the Big South in assists per game, but his A/TO ratio is nothing to write home about. He's not much of a scorer.
Jamon Battle is essentially the bench for the Bulldogs. He is effective at going backdoor to the basket and he is a decent rebounder.
CONCLUSION
We are better on offense, and much better on defense. We are better on the boards, and we take care of the ball better. We have better players and most likely a better coach. Why is the line only 17.5? We are more physical than they are, and I don't think they can stop Jaimie.
How does Ashville have a chance of beating us? As a lot of people have pointed out, UNCA has weapons on offense. That gives them a punchers chance. I don't think they can stop us on offense, so they will have to outscore us. Also, Pembeer's superpower is getting fouled. Our bigs have to force him to make his shots, rather then sending him to the free-throw line.
They are capable of hitting a lot of difficult threes, and that could keep the game close.
However, this should be a pretty easy win.
I see this game as a 2 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
However, they will have to face KenPom's #1 defense in the country.
BTW, their coach's outfit makes him look like he is is a crew member of the Star Ship Enterprise.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -17.5 (17.5 point favorites win 99.9% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time 76-59.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 70-56
KemPom: UCLA wins 95% of the time, 76-58.
UNC-Asheville | UCLA | |
NET | 140 | 3 |
KenPom Rank | 146 | 2 |
Sagarin Rank | 154 | 3 |
Torvick Rank | 177 | 3 |
SOS | 294 | 33 |
Record | 27-7 | 29-5 |
We have a better record against a MUCH tougher schedule. Ashville played one of the weakest schedules in the country.
According to Team Rankings, the Big South is the 26th best conference out of 33.
That's not to say Ashville is a terrible team. There are 11 Power 5 teams that rank lower in KenPom than the Bulldogs including both Oregon State and California.
UNC-ASHEVILLE'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 8-5 | 9-0 | 5-0 | 7-0 |
UNC-Asheville | 1-1 | 0-1 | 4-2 | 20-3 |
UCNA's Quad 1 win is at the real USF (San Francisco, not South Florida). It was their first game of the season, and it took two overtimes. Their next best win is over Longwood.
In their other Quad 1 game, they lost by 34 at Arkansas.
They have losses to Winthrop, South Carolina Upstate, and Georgia State.
UNC-Asheville Road / Neutral | 14-7 |
UCLA Road / Neutral | 12-5 |
They have won 9 straight and 18 of their last 19.
They are 11-4 in close games. We are 3-3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UNC-ASHVILLE'S DEFENSE
.
Asheville plays mostly straight man defense, although they will throw in a little bit of zone. They will occsionally press and double the ball. When there is pentration into the lane, they agreesively collapse on the ball, leaving them vulnerable to a pass to an open man.
UNC-Asheville Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 115 | 25 |
Torvick Rank | 145 | 33 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 75 | 74 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 128 of 363 | 226 |
FG Percent | 47.7% | 45.8% |
Effective FG Percent | 48.0% (68) | 50.0% (165) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.5% (22) | 34.7% (141) |
3-Pt Rate | 34.0% (70) | 29.1% (340) |
2-Pt Percent | 51.4.1% (120) | 50.4% (180) |
FT Percent | 72.2% (163) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.7% (197) | 33.7% (32) |
Assist Percent | 45.2% (48) | 50.9% (168) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 17.9% (184) | 15.3% (27) |
Block Percent | 10.2% (99) | 6.3% (16) |
Ashville's defense isn't terrible, but it is not up to the standards of the really good Pac-12 defenses that have given us problems. They excel at one thing, defending the three-point shot. However, that should not help them much. We are near the bottom of teams that depend on the three.
Overall they are pretty good at holding the other team to low shooting percentages, but they are not very good at keeping the other team from shooting more shots. They give up a lot of offensive rebounds and they turn the ball over a lot. We are the perfect team to exploit both of those things.
We are the nightmare team for their defense.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UNC-ASHEVILLE'S OFFENSE
We're #1!! In defense, accoring to KenPom.
UNCA runs mostly a 5-out offense, with lots of cutting to the basket.
UCLA Defense | UNC-Ashville Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 1 | 195 |
Torvick Rank | 2 | 216 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 75 |
FG Percent | 40.5% | 47.4% |
Effective FG Percent | 46.8% (28) | 53.9% (34) |
3-Pt Percent | 31.4% (34) | 38.8% (6) |
3-Pt Rate | 39.7% (264) | 37.2% (18) |
2-Pt Percent | 46.8% (45) | 51.46% (120) |
FT Percent | 69.3% (277) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.6% (141) | 25.8% (261) |
Assist Percent | 52.2% (218) | 50.1% (184) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (6) | 20.0% (301) |
Block Percent | 12.1% (47) | 11.2% (335) |
UNC-Asheville is a good shooting team, particularly from the arc, however we are very good at defending the arc.
They are nowhere near as good inside the arc.
Then they have some weaknesses, and UCLA's defense looks perfect to exploit them. They aren't very good on the offensive boards, but their real problem is they turn the ball over A LOT, and they get a lot of shots blocked. Those are bad qualities for going up against the UCLA defense.
One other thing to remember. The Bulldogs got those offensive numbers going up against Big South defenses. They are not exactly lock-down defenses. The best defensive efficiency is Gardner -Webb at #58. The rest range from #199 to #338 (out of 358).
As a team they are very good at free throws, but it depends a lot on who is shooting them. They have two rotation players who shoot over 83% and three that shoot under 50.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
UNC-Asheville | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | 0.9 | 4.2 |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 25.8% (261) | 34.1% (25) |
Defensive Rebound Percent | 71.3% (197) | 71.7% (173) |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
Turnover Margin | -1.2 (280) | 5.7 (2) |
Extra Scoring Chances | -3.2 (317) | 8.6 (2) |
Here's where things start to look really bad for the Bulldogs.
We have a significant advantage on the boards.
We are a much better ball-handling team.
We have massive edges in turnover margin and extra scoring chances.
AND all of this is with their stats accumulated in the Big South Conference. Simply put, we will get a lot more shots than they will.
Advantage: UCLA - HUGE.
PLAYERS
The Bulldogs go 8 men deep, but they rely heavily on their top two players for scoring. They are #126 in the country in bench minutes.
HOWEVER, in their conference championship game, only 6 players played more than 4 minutes. Expect to see a 6-man rotation with a little of Caldwell, and Sephney rarely seeing the floor.
They are a veteran team. Their rotation consists of 5 seniors and 3 juniors.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Drew Pember F | Sr | 6-10 212 | 3-star #206 | 34 | 34 | 21 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 46% | 37% | 35% | 0.7 |
Tajion Jones G | Sr | 6-5 210 | Unranked | 34 | 35 | 15 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 51% | 46% | 61% | 1.1 | |
Fletcher Abee G | Jr | 6-3 195 | Unranked | 31 | 30 | 8 | 1.0 | 42% | 42% | 61% | 1.3 | ||
Nicholas McMullen F | Jr | 6-8 237 | Unranked | 34 | 23 | 8 | 9.7 | 0.6 | 56% | 17% | 3% | 0.4 | |
Jamon Battle F | Sr | 6-5 207 | Unranked | 34 | 21 | 7 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 56% | 10% | 6% | 0.8 | |
Alex Caldwell G | Jr | 6-0 161 | Unranked | 29 | 15 | 6 | 1.0 | 40% | 33% | 65% | 1.2 | ||
Caleb Burgess G | Sr | 6-3 185 | 34 | 24 | 5 | 4.3 | 41% | 29% | 14% | 1.6 | |||
Trent Stephney G | Sr | 6-2 183 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1.3 | 45% | 37% | 43% | 1.1 | |||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Most of their offense come from three guys, Pember, Jones, and Abee. Burgess is their point guard. Pember is a threat from inside and outside, whil Jones and Abee are very dangerous outside shooters. The other guys will mostly get their points from backdoor cuts.
Drew Pember, a transfer from Tennessee is the Big South player of the year and defensive player of the year. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks. He leads the nation in free-throw attempts and makes, and he makes 83% of them. It will be important for our centers not to foul when he tries to shoot. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Pember is not a post-up scorer. He is not a physical player, and he doesn't set particularly good screens.
He typically starts each possession at the top of the key. If he gets the ball he will either shoot it from there or try to take his man to the basket. He will also cut to the basket without the ball.
Perhaps their favorite play is to give him the ball at the top of the circle and having the other four players spread out leaving the lane open. Then he uses a quick first step to drive down the empty lane, either getting a layup or getting fouled.
He doesn't have a post-up game. Don't think of him as Tubelis of Arizona, but think more of him as one of the Mobley brothers from USC, but less skilled around the basket.
Pember didn't have much success at Tennessee. After a lackluster first seaon, he only played 3 minutes a game for the Volunteers as a sophomore. However, he has found success in Ashville.
Tajion Jones is the leading scorer in Ashville history, and leads them in career three-point shots. He's their version of Boogie Ellis, but he shoots the three-point shot a lot better. He is #3 in the country at three-point shooting. He's capable of making three-point shots off the bounce and off balance, even if well-guarded. He is dangerous.
He's attempted 342 shots and has 41 assists on the year, so it seems once he has the ball in his hands he is far more likley to shoot it than make a great pass.
Fletcher Abee is another deadly 3-point shooter. He has a quick release. You don't go under a screen against him. He would be #14 nationally in three-point shooting (just ahead of LJ Cryer of Baylor), if he had enough attempts. He's scored in double figures in 12 of his 31 games. (If Fletcher Abee had an old music disc, it would be an Abee CD.)
Nicholas McMullen is not a stretch 4. He has only attempted 6 three-pointers all year, making 1 of them. He is a good rebounder, and a lot of his offense will come from an offensive rebound.
Caleb Burgess leads the Big South in assists per game, but his A/TO ratio is nothing to write home about. He's not much of a scorer.
Jamon Battle is essentially the bench for the Bulldogs. He is effective at going backdoor to the basket and he is a decent rebounder.
CONCLUSION
We are better on offense, and much better on defense. We are better on the boards, and we take care of the ball better. We have better players and most likely a better coach. Why is the line only 17.5? We are more physical than they are, and I don't think they can stop Jaimie.
How does Ashville have a chance of beating us? As a lot of people have pointed out, UNCA has weapons on offense. That gives them a punchers chance. I don't think they can stop us on offense, so they will have to outscore us. Also, Pembeer's superpower is getting fouled. Our bigs have to force him to make his shots, rather then sending him to the free-throw line.
They are capable of hitting a lot of difficult threes, and that could keep the game close.
However, this should be a pretty easy win.
I see this game as a 2 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!