Post by mhbruin on Mar 9, 2023 21:51:36 GMT -8
Dana Altrmann has a history of having teams that play better as the season goes on. So far the Ducks are 3-0 in March. Should we be afraid?
Oregon is finally healthy. Oregon hasn't had a very stable rotation. Rotation players have missed 47 games. 10 different players have started a game. Their current starters have missed 36 games.
This is not the Oregon team we faced back in December.
METRICS
Line: UCLA 6 (6 point favorites win 72% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-63
KemPom: UCLA wins 77% of the time, 72-64.
The computers and Vegas think this will be a tough, competitive game for us. I agree with the computers and with the casinos.
OREGON'S RECORD
Oregon's two Quad 1 wins are a home win over Arizona and a win over Arizona State in Tempe.
Their worst losses are to UC Irvine and Utah Valley early in the season, and to Washington.
Although Oregon has won their last 4, but their wins are over Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, and WSU.
This will be a Quad 1 game for us teams, but barely for us. They are #47 in the NET. If they drop to #51, it will be a Quad 2 win.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon has a good defense. To understand their defense, you need to know that Oregon is really tall. They have the 4th tallest roster in the country.
But more than that, they play tall. They will almost always have two 7-footers on the floor at the same time. (Yes, Dante is only 6'11", but don't get picky.) That means they have two really good shot blockers on the floor all the time. There is a good reason they are Top 10 nationally in blocks. Dante and Ware are two of the 10 best shot blockers in the Pac-12.
However, UCLA is one of the best teams in the country at NOT gettting our shots blocked. Will they block a lot of our shots? This could be a deciding factor on this end of the floor.
Another factor is that UCLA is an outstanding offensive rebounding team. For all that size, Oregon is only pretty good on their defensive boards. We should have the advantage here.
Also, Oregon is not very good at forcing turnovers, and we don't turn it over much. Will Richardon is one of they best in the league at getting steals, but as a team they are not that great. They are more likely to pack the lane, rather than pressure the ball.
There is one thing to worry about. Oregon is one of those teams that is very good at two-point defense. We have had some of our worst offensive performances against teams who defend well inside the arc. USC held us to 35% and 36% shooting and 64 and 60 points. Arizona held us to 31% and 52 points.
We will need to make some threes to be successful on this end of the floor. If we do that and avoid getting our shots blocked, we should do fine.
In December we shot 42% / 55% against them. In February, we shot 41% / 28%. We scored 70 and 65 points in those two games. We may have some trouble scoring.
Advantage: UCLA, modest.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
Oregon has the 3rd most efficient offense we have played, after Arizona and Kentucky. We held Arizona to 58 points and Kentucky to 53.
Oregon is a poor 3-point shooting team and we defend the 3 very well. They are outstanding inside the arc, and our two-point defense is only good. If I were coaching the Ducks, I would tell them to only shoot 2-point shots. Fortunately for them, I am not the coach of the Ducks.
As you might expect, with their size they are a very good offensive rebounding team. We aren't great on our defensive boards.
Fortunately for us, they turn the ball over a lot. We should be able to take advantage of that.
Advantage: Even or small edge for UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
The two teams are pretty even in rebounding.
We handle the ball better, and we get more extra scoring chances.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Oregon lost one starter from last season's team, De'Vion Harmon who transferred to Texas Tech. They will play 5 seniors and two juniors in their 10-man rotation. This is a veteran team, which makes some of their losses a little harder to understand, unless you take all the injuries into account.
They also have a lot of talent, with three 5-star players. Howver, they all play center. To get them on the floor, Altmann has been playing two of them at the same time a lot. It helps that Nate Bittle is sort of a stretch four, who can hit the three. It doesn't help that he is only 30% from the arc, and shoots almost half his shots from there.
They only have four players who have played in every game this season, Will Richardson, Quincy Guerrier, Rivaldo Soares, and Brennan Rigsby.
If you have been paying attention, you may have noticed that they turn the ball over quite a bit and don't have a great team A/TO ratio. Their front line is very good, but except for Will Richardson, their guard play hasn't been great. However, with the return of Couisnard and Barthelemy from injury it has improved, a bit.
Part of the problem is they don't have a great PG. They have a bunch of pretty good point guards playing the position by committee.
In their first-round game, they basically played 7 men, which may be an issue with a 24-hour turnaround. Then again, we basically played 7 men, too.
One personnel issue is the health of N'Faly Dante. He looked pretty badly injured when the left the floor yesterday, but he said after the game he will be ready to go. Will he he be 100%?
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Let's stalk about shooting percentages. When I wrote that they should only shoot two-point shots, I probably should have added that Dante should take most of them and that Bittle and Ware should take the rest. All the guys under 6'11" aren't great shooters.
But the "short" guys as a group seem to like to shoot threes. They have no great 3-point shooters. Couisnard at 36% is their best. Canka, Singleton, and Bailey all shoot quite a bit better than that. But most them insist on taking 45% to 57% from beyond the arc.
At times Will Richardon looks like an All-American. He leads the team in points, assists, and steals. However, he is only shooting 44% / 34%, and he leads the team in turnovers. He's a really good player, but he never quite seems to live up to his potential. He isn't really a true PG, but he is often forced to play that position.
N'Faly Dante finally seems to be healthy and living up to his lofty recruiting ranking. In the Pac-12, he only trails Ballo in FG% and is 3rd in rebounds per 40 minutes. He is big and strong, skilled around the basket, and Bona will have a hard time not fouling out, trying to defend Dante.
Nate Bittle has gone from bench warmer to starter. Although he is tall, he is not anywhere as physical as Dante. He tends to play more around the 3-point line on offense. He is a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Almost half his shots are threes, and we should be happy to see him take them.
Kel'el Ware in not Superman (who is Kal-El), even if based on his recruiting ranking you might expect him to be. He is super athletic for his size. He is the best shot-blocker on a team of good shot blockers. His offensive game is still developing, even if he makes some plays that are worth of Sports Center Top 10. Like Bittle, he shoots too many threes. He didn't play much in yesterday's game.
Both Bittle and Ware are not very physical. It might behoove us to play physcial against them.
The four primary wings are Couisnard, Guerrier, Barthelemy, and Soares. They are all decent players, but none of them strike me as special. Soares is the best rebounder of the bunch and the worst shooter.
Barthelemy is their best three-point shooter. He was 3 for 6 in their game yesterday, and 11 for 23 in their last 5 games. We should make sure we don't leave him open.
Lok Wor, what is he good for? Absolutely nothing.
CONCLUSION
In our two games against the Ducks this season, Bona had 8 fouls in 31 minutes. I am confident he won't have 8 fouls in today's game, but staying on the floor against Dante (if he plays) will be critical.
Oregon is a decent team, and they have the kind of defense that we have had trouble with this season.
I would have taken consolation in the fact that Oregon isn't a very good three-point shooting team, but Colorado is even worse, and they shot 44% against us.
We are the better team, but they are very good and playing very well right now.
I think that winning will depend on three things: 1) Making outside shots. 2) Keeping Bona out of foul trouble. 3) Creating turnovers.
We will probably have an easy game in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but other than that, every game will be tough. I don't see this as an exception.
I see this game as a 7 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
Oregon is finally healthy. Oregon hasn't had a very stable rotation. Rotation players have missed 47 games. 10 different players have started a game. Their current starters have missed 36 games.
This is not the Oregon team we faced back in December.
METRICS
Line: UCLA 6 (6 point favorites win 72% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time.71-64.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-63
KemPom: UCLA wins 77% of the time, 72-64.
The computers and Vegas think this will be a tough, competitive game for us. I agree with the computers and with the casinos.
Oregon | UCLA | |
NET | 47 | 4 |
KenPom Rank | 38 | 2 |
Sagarin Rank | 43 | 2 |
Torvick Rank | 42 | 4 |
SOS | 24 | 39 |
Record | 19-13 | 28-4 |
OREGON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 7-4 | 9-0 | 5-0 | 7-0 |
Oregon | 2-8 | 7-4 | 5-1 | 5-0 |
Oregon's two Quad 1 wins are a home win over Arizona and a win over Arizona State in Tempe.
Their worst losses are to UC Irvine and Utah Valley early in the season, and to Washington.
Although Oregon has won their last 4, but their wins are over Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, and WSU.
UCLA Road / Neutral | 11-4 |
Oregon Home | 6-8 |
This will be a Quad 1 game for us teams, but barely for us. They are #47 in the NET. If they drop to #51, it will be a Quad 2 win.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon has a good defense. To understand their defense, you need to know that Oregon is really tall. They have the 4th tallest roster in the country.
But more than that, they play tall. They will almost always have two 7-footers on the floor at the same time. (Yes, Dante is only 6'11", but don't get picky.) That means they have two really good shot blockers on the floor all the time. There is a good reason they are Top 10 nationally in blocks. Dante and Ware are two of the 10 best shot blockers in the Pac-12.
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 70 | 22 |
Torvick Rank | 84 | 28 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 75 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 219 of 363 | 238 |
FG Percent | 41.4% | 46.4% |
Effective FG Percent | 47.9% (75) | 54.7% (40) |
3-Pt Percent | 33.4% (148) | 37.0% (54) |
3-Pt Rate | 38.6% (215) | 25.9% (356) |
2-Pt Percent | 46.4% (45) | 54.5% (50) |
FT Percent | 72% (176) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.9% (112) | 35.2% (18) |
Assist Percent | 52.1% (203) | 51.6% (161) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 17.3% (249) | 15.6% (22) |
Block Percent | 14.4% (10) | 6.2% (12) |
However, UCLA is one of the best teams in the country at NOT gettting our shots blocked. Will they block a lot of our shots? This could be a deciding factor on this end of the floor.
Another factor is that UCLA is an outstanding offensive rebounding team. For all that size, Oregon is only pretty good on their defensive boards. We should have the advantage here.
Also, Oregon is not very good at forcing turnovers, and we don't turn it over much. Will Richardon is one of they best in the league at getting steals, but as a team they are not that great. They are more likely to pack the lane, rather than pressure the ball.
There is one thing to worry about. Oregon is one of those teams that is very good at two-point defense. We have had some of our worst offensive performances against teams who defend well inside the arc. USC held us to 35% and 36% shooting and 64 and 60 points. Arizona held us to 31% and 52 points.
We will need to make some threes to be successful on this end of the floor. If we do that and avoid getting our shots blocked, we should do fine.
In December we shot 42% / 55% against them. In February, we shot 41% / 28%. We scored 70 and 65 points in those two games. We may have some trouble scoring.
Advantage: UCLA, modest.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
Oregon has the 3rd most efficient offense we have played, after Arizona and Kentucky. We held Arizona to 58 points and Kentucky to 53.
UCLA Defense | Oregon Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 2 | 38 |
Torvick Rank | 3 | 33 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 71 |
FG Percent | 41% | 45% |
Effective FG Percent | 47.6% (64) | 51.6% (118) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.4% (33) | 31.3% (309) |
3-Pt Rate | 40.5% (285) | 38.3% (126) |
2-Pt Percent | 49.0% (128) | 53.8% (50) |
FT Percent | 70% (231) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.4% (173) | 32.8% (51) |
Assist Percent | 52.9% (226) | 52.9% (127) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.8% (4) | 19.1% (234) |
Block Percent | 12.7% (33) | 6.9% (40) |
Oregon is a poor 3-point shooting team and we defend the 3 very well. They are outstanding inside the arc, and our two-point defense is only good. If I were coaching the Ducks, I would tell them to only shoot 2-point shots. Fortunately for them, I am not the coach of the Ducks.
As you might expect, with their size they are a very good offensive rebounding team. We aren't great on our defensive boards.
Fortunately for us, they turn the ball over a lot. We should be able to take advantage of that.
Advantage: Even or small edge for UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | 5.1 | 4.6 |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 32.8% (51) | 35.2% (20) |
Defensive Rebound Percent | 73.8% (77) | 72.6% (131) |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
Extra Scoring Chances | 0.9 (136) | 9.0 (1) |
The two teams are pretty even in rebounding.
We handle the ball better, and we get more extra scoring chances.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Oregon lost one starter from last season's team, De'Vion Harmon who transferred to Texas Tech. They will play 5 seniors and two juniors in their 10-man rotation. This is a veteran team, which makes some of their losses a little harder to understand, unless you take all the injuries into account.
They also have a lot of talent, with three 5-star players. Howver, they all play center. To get them on the floor, Altmann has been playing two of them at the same time a lot. It helps that Nate Bittle is sort of a stretch four, who can hit the three. It doesn't help that he is only 30% from the arc, and shoots almost half his shots from there.
They only have four players who have played in every game this season, Will Richardson, Quincy Guerrier, Rivaldo Soares, and Brennan Rigsby.
If you have been paying attention, you may have noticed that they turn the ball over quite a bit and don't have a great team A/TO ratio. Their front line is very good, but except for Will Richardson, their guard play hasn't been great. However, with the return of Couisnard and Barthelemy from injury it has improved, a bit.
Part of the problem is they don't have a great PG. They have a bunch of pretty good point guards playing the position by committee.
In their first-round game, they basically played 7 men, which may be an issue with a 24-hour turnaround. Then again, we basically played 7 men, too.
One personnel issue is the health of N'Faly Dante. He looked pretty badly injured when the left the floor yesterday, but he said after the game he will be ready to go. Will he he be 100%?
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Will Richardson G | Sr | 6-5 180 | 4-star 42 | 32 | 36 | 14 | 5.5 | 44% | 34% | 44% | 1.6 | ||
N'Faly Dante C | Sr | 6-11 230 | 5-star 24 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 63% | 0.6 | ||
Jermaine Couisnard G | Sr | 6-4 210 | 3-star 218 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 2.3 | 42% | 36% | 48% | 1.5 | ||
Quincy Guerrier F | Sr | 6-8 220 | 4-star 121 | 32 | 26 | 9 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 42% | 34% | 57% | 0.6 | |
Keeshawn Barthelemy G | Jr | 6-2 175 | 3-star 170 | 20 | 25 | 9 | 2.3 | 44% | 39% | 55% | 1.7 | ||
Rivaldo Soares G | Sr | 6-6 205 | #10 JUCO | 32 | 27 | 7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 37% | 25% | 47% | 1.0 | |
Kel'el Ware C | Fr | 7-0 210 | 5-star 9 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 9.2 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 46% | 29% | 31% | 0.7 |
Nate Bittle C | So | 7-0 215 | 5-star 16 | 24 | 18 | 7 | 11.2 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 48% | 30% | 46% | 0.6 |
Brennan Rigsby G | So | 6-3 180 | #10 JUCO | 21 | 19 | 5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 40% | 29% | 56% | 1.4 | |
Lok Wur F | Jr | 6-9 205 | 3-star 478 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 36% | 29% |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Let's stalk about shooting percentages. When I wrote that they should only shoot two-point shots, I probably should have added that Dante should take most of them and that Bittle and Ware should take the rest. All the guys under 6'11" aren't great shooters.
But the "short" guys as a group seem to like to shoot threes. They have no great 3-point shooters. Couisnard at 36% is their best. Canka, Singleton, and Bailey all shoot quite a bit better than that. But most them insist on taking 45% to 57% from beyond the arc.
At times Will Richardon looks like an All-American. He leads the team in points, assists, and steals. However, he is only shooting 44% / 34%, and he leads the team in turnovers. He's a really good player, but he never quite seems to live up to his potential. He isn't really a true PG, but he is often forced to play that position.
N'Faly Dante finally seems to be healthy and living up to his lofty recruiting ranking. In the Pac-12, he only trails Ballo in FG% and is 3rd in rebounds per 40 minutes. He is big and strong, skilled around the basket, and Bona will have a hard time not fouling out, trying to defend Dante.
Nate Bittle has gone from bench warmer to starter. Although he is tall, he is not anywhere as physical as Dante. He tends to play more around the 3-point line on offense. He is a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Almost half his shots are threes, and we should be happy to see him take them.
Kel'el Ware in not Superman (who is Kal-El), even if based on his recruiting ranking you might expect him to be. He is super athletic for his size. He is the best shot-blocker on a team of good shot blockers. His offensive game is still developing, even if he makes some plays that are worth of Sports Center Top 10. Like Bittle, he shoots too many threes. He didn't play much in yesterday's game.
Both Bittle and Ware are not very physical. It might behoove us to play physcial against them.
The four primary wings are Couisnard, Guerrier, Barthelemy, and Soares. They are all decent players, but none of them strike me as special. Soares is the best rebounder of the bunch and the worst shooter.
Barthelemy is their best three-point shooter. He was 3 for 6 in their game yesterday, and 11 for 23 in their last 5 games. We should make sure we don't leave him open.
Lok Wor, what is he good for? Absolutely nothing.
CONCLUSION
In our two games against the Ducks this season, Bona had 8 fouls in 31 minutes. I am confident he won't have 8 fouls in today's game, but staying on the floor against Dante (if he plays) will be critical.
Oregon is a decent team, and they have the kind of defense that we have had trouble with this season.
I would have taken consolation in the fact that Oregon isn't a very good three-point shooting team, but Colorado is even worse, and they shot 44% against us.
We are the better team, but they are very good and playing very well right now.
I think that winning will depend on three things: 1) Making outside shots. 2) Keeping Bona out of foul trouble. 3) Creating turnovers.
We will probably have an easy game in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but other than that, every game will be tough. I don't see this as an exception.
I see this game as a 7 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!