Post by mhbruin on Mar 5, 2023 11:32:13 GMT -8
Here are the top candidates for a #1 seed. If we can believe the "experts" Houston, Alabama, and Kansas are locks, but there is a mixed opinion about the 4th #1 seed. They think it is between UCLA and Purdue.
This table shows a lot of the factors that the committee says they consider.
NOTE: The numbers in parentheses are NET rankings and location of the game. 8-N is #8 in the net on a neutral court and 30-R is #30 in a road game.
The Case for UCLA over Purdue: The computers prefer UCLA. UCLA has a better overall record and a better road record. UCLA has no losses outside of Quad 1.
The Case for Purdue over UCLA: Purdue has one more Quad 1 win, and quality of it's wins is better. Purdue has played a better schedule. UCLA may be without one of its best players.
The Verdict: It's a pretty close call, which is reflected in the mixed opinions by bracketologists. One factor that could help UCLA is that the Bruins are on a 10-game winning steak, while the Boilermakers have lost 4 of their last 8. Even theough the committee isnt' supposed to consider that, it is hard to ignore.
Comment on Alabama: A strong resume based on a tough schedule. Great computer numbers. However, in the tournament, I would worry about a team that shoots almost half it's shots from outside the arc. It just takes one bad shooting game, and you are gone.
Comment on Kansas: It's hard to argue with 15 Quad 1 wins and the toughest schedule in the country.
Comments on Houston: I am not as sold on Houston as most experts seem to be. Yes, they have great comuters numbers, but they got all those computer numbers against a very easy schedule. Among the contenders they have the fewest Quad 1 wins and by FAR the worst loss.
And I'm not blown away by their wins. St. Mary's is a good team, but are they really the #8 team in the country? Virginia? Very good team, but hardly elite. Virginia has at least two losses to teams that won't be in the field including a bad loss to Boston College.
This table shows a lot of the factors that the committee says they consider.
NOTE: The numbers in parentheses are NET rankings and location of the game. 8-N is #8 in the net on a neutral court and 30-R is #30 in a road game.
| TEAM | NET | RECORD | ROAD RECORD | KenPom | TORVICK | BPI | AP POLL | SAGARIN | QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | SOS | OOC SES | BEST WINS | WORST LOSSES |
| Houston | 1 | 29-2 | 11-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-1 | 8-0 | 7-1 | 10-0 | 102 | 77 | St. Marys (8-N) Virginia (30-R) Memphis (34-R) Oregon (47-R) | Temple (121-H) |
| Alabama | 2 | 26-5 | 9-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9-5 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | Houston (1-R) Arkansas (18-R) Auburn (32-R) Arkansas (18-H) | Oklahoma (18-R) Texas A&M (23-R) |
| UCLA | 4 | 27-4 | 9-2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8-4 | 8-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 | 38 | 102 | Arizona (11-H) Kentucky (20-N) Maryland (26-R) Oregon (47-R) | USC (44-R) Illinois (34-N) |
| Purdue | 5 | 26-5 | 8-3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9-4 | 7-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 30 | 94 | Gonzaga (9-N) Marquette (13-H) Duke (24-N) West Virginia (25-N) | Rutgers (37-H) Northwestern (45-R) |
| Kansas | 7 | 25-6 | 7-4 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 15-6 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 16 | Texas (10-H) Baylor (12-H) Kentucky (20-R) Duke (24-N) | TCU (29-H) Iowas St (19-R) |
The Case for UCLA over Purdue: The computers prefer UCLA. UCLA has a better overall record and a better road record. UCLA has no losses outside of Quad 1.
The Case for Purdue over UCLA: Purdue has one more Quad 1 win, and quality of it's wins is better. Purdue has played a better schedule. UCLA may be without one of its best players.
The Verdict: It's a pretty close call, which is reflected in the mixed opinions by bracketologists. One factor that could help UCLA is that the Bruins are on a 10-game winning steak, while the Boilermakers have lost 4 of their last 8. Even theough the committee isnt' supposed to consider that, it is hard to ignore.
Comment on Alabama: A strong resume based on a tough schedule. Great computer numbers. However, in the tournament, I would worry about a team that shoots almost half it's shots from outside the arc. It just takes one bad shooting game, and you are gone.
Comment on Kansas: It's hard to argue with 15 Quad 1 wins and the toughest schedule in the country.
Comments on Houston: I am not as sold on Houston as most experts seem to be. Yes, they have great comuters numbers, but they got all those computer numbers against a very easy schedule. Among the contenders they have the fewest Quad 1 wins and by FAR the worst loss.
And I'm not blown away by their wins. St. Mary's is a good team, but are they really the #8 team in the country? Virginia? Very good team, but hardly elite. Virginia has at least two losses to teams that won't be in the field including a bad loss to Boston College.