Post by mhbruin on Mar 3, 2023 14:08:10 GMT -8
I don't think I have to tell anyone this is a HUGE game, even if we have already won the Pac-12. It could decide whether we get to stay in the West in the NCAA tournament. It could decide the Pac-12 POY race. And it's Arizona vs UCLA. Nuff said!
The first time we played Arizona, we were without Amari Bailey. Did that make a difference? Probably.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -12.5
Line: UCLA -5 (5 point favorites win 68% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 79% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 69-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 74% of the time, 79-72.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 75% of the time, 75-70.
ARIZONA'S RECORD
Arizona's Quad 1 wins are over Tennessee, UCLA , Creighton (N) San Diego St, Indiana, USC, ASU, and WSU. Their Quad 1 losses are to Oregon and Utah.
Their Quad 2 losses are to Stanford, ASU, and WSU.
The Wildcars are 3-2 in their last five games.
Arizona State's road record is the second best in the Pac-12. Only our 9-2 record is better.
UA ROAD WINS
USC (6 points)
Arizona St (9)
Washington St (5)
Washtington (23)
Oregon St (12)
Cal (23)
Except for the USC win, I don't think they have a lot of impressive wins on the road.
UA ROAD LOSSES
Oregon (21 points)
Utah (15)
Stanford (9)
When they lose on the road, they seem to lose pretty badly.
They are 6-1 in close games. We are 3-2.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona is not an elite defense, like some others we have played lately, but they are a good defensive team.
The most remarkable thing about Arizona's defense is there is nothing remarkable about it. They are pretty good at most things, but not elite at anything.
Their strongest stat is their two point defense. However, they don't do it with a lot of blocked shots. They are just good at defending the paint.
They are pretty bad at generating turnovers.
In our first game, we shot miserably against them. 31% / 20% /55%. There is nothing in their defensive stats for the season that suggests that we will shoot as poorly at home.
They like to play very fast. We don't. We will need to pay attention to getting back on defense. Every game, Tubelis seems to beat the defense down the floor a couple of times for an easy basket. The will make Coach Cronin very angry.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
Arizona State's offense isn't very good and we have an elite defense.
Arizona is an elite offensive team. We are an elite defensive team. It's a matchup for the ages.
They are really good at three-point shooting and even better at two-point shooting. Even though they are a very fast-tempo team, they are not a big one-on-one team. They get assists on 2/3rds of their baskets.
It they have any weaknesses, they are turnovers and getting shots blocked. They turn the ball over quite a bit and get a lot of shots blocked. We are well equipped to take advantage of both of those.
In our first game we held them to 39% and 28% on threes. They had 17 turnovers, but we only had two blocks. If we have defensive numbers like that on Saturday, we should be in great shape at home.
Advantage: Even. They say great defense beats great offense. I'm not sure that's always true.
OTHER FACTORS
The rebound margin may seem a bit daunting, but that is partly the result of Arizona playing a fast pace. When you look at the other rebounding numbers, we seem pretty even on the boards.
Arizona leads the Pac-12 in A/TO ratio. We are #2. They have a small edge here.
However, we have a BIG edge in Extra Scoring Chances.
Advantage: UCLA.
PLAYERS
Arizona is the 15th tallest team in the country (which is only the 6th tallest team in the Pac-12.)
Coach Lloyd has settled on a 7-man rotation. They are pretty heavily dependent on their top six players. They are #287 in the US in bench minutes.
They have a lot of talent, with five Top 100 players, but we have eight Top 100 players.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The first two players are primarily
As I am sure you have heard many times, Tubelis leads the Pac-12 in scoring and rebounding. He is a terrific player and Jaimie Jaquez's primary competition for Pac-12 player of the year. He is excellent around the basket and can score in a variety of ways, even if HE LIKES TO GO TO HIS LEFT. He will shoot a three point shot around once a game, but he is much more dangerous inside the ard. He does everything well, including rebounding, blocking shots, and running the floor.
The other two-point shooter is Tubelis' front-court mate, Oumar Ballo. He's strong, mobile and skilled around the basket, but he seems to score a ton on dunks off of high-low action. Ballo and Tubelis may be the best two big men on the same team in the country.
The next two guys are the three-point shooters.
Texas transfer Courtney Ramey was brought in for his three-point shooting, and he has been good at it. 72% of his shots are three-pointers. He also handles the ball well, and leads the team in steals.
If you think 72% is a high percentage of threes, then there is everyone's least favorite Wildcat Kerr Kriisa. 77% of his shots are threes. Given his poor shooting inside the arc, that is appropriate.
He leads the Pac-12 in assists (in large part because of the team's tempo), and he also leads the team in turnovers. Nonetheless, his A/TO ratio is very good.
He's at his best when he plays facilitator. When he decides to be a scorer, he often plays too much hero ball. In their five losses he was 12 of 49 (24%) from the field and 9 of 42 (21%) from the arc.
Pelle Larsson (son of Lars) was the Pac-12's best 6th man at Utah, but became a starter at Arizona. Then Lloyd moved him back to his sixth-man role. He does everything pretty well.
Replacing the son of Lars in the starting lineup was Cedric Henderson Jr (son of Cedric Henderson). He is shooting better that Pelle, and he rebounds about as well. The change makes sense.
Freshman Kylan Boswell is going to be a terrific player. He already has an excellent A/TO ratio. His shooting hasn't been great, although he scored 15 against USC.
CONCLUSION
Arizona is very good, even if they are not as good as last season. Their two-headed big man monster will definitely be a challenge for us. In our last meeting, both Bona and Nwuba ended up with 4 fouls, and Nwuba only played 10 minutes.
We did outrebound them 44-37, and we won the turnover battle 17-11, However, they got 9 more points at the free-throw line and won the game by 6.
We are more talented than they are, and we are playing at home. We have been excellent at home, and they haven't been dominant on the road.
We will be favored and we should be. However, these are two really good teams, and in any one game anything can happen.
I HATE losing to Arizona. I think our seniors feel the same way. It's Senior Night. I think we make it a happy one.
I see this game as a 10 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
The first time we played Arizona, we were without Amari Bailey. Did that make a difference? Probably.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5 (5 point favorites win 68% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 79% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 72% of the time 78-72.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA Wins 69-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 74% of the time, 79-72.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 75% of the time, 75-70.
| Arizona | UCLA | |
| NET | 11 | 4 |
| KenPom Rank | 11 | 2 |
| Sagarin Rank | 8 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 8 | 4 |
| SOS | 50 | 42 |
| Record | 25-5 | 26-4 |
ARIZONA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 7-4 | 8-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| Arizona | 8-2 | 6-3 | 4-0 | 7-0 |
Arizona's Quad 1 wins are over Tennessee, UCLA , Creighton (N) San Diego St, Indiana, USC, ASU, and WSU. Their Quad 1 losses are to Oregon and Utah.
Their Quad 2 losses are to Stanford, ASU, and WSU.
The Wildcars are 3-2 in their last five games.
| Arizona Road | 6-3 |
| UCLA Home | 16-0 |
Arizona State's road record is the second best in the Pac-12. Only our 9-2 record is better.
UA ROAD WINS
USC (6 points)
Arizona St (9)
Washington St (5)
Washtington (23)
Oregon St (12)
Cal (23)
Except for the USC win, I don't think they have a lot of impressive wins on the road.
UA ROAD LOSSES
Oregon (21 points)
Utah (15)
Stanford (9)
When they lose on the road, they seem to lose pretty badly.
They are 6-1 in close games. We are 3-2.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
Arizona is not an elite defense, like some others we have played lately, but they are a good defensive team.
Arizona Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 57 | 22 |
| Torvick Rank | 44 | 30 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 72 | 74 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 6 of 363 | 230 |
| FG Percent | 41.0% | 46.5% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.4% (43) | 51.6% (129) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 33.0% (112) | 35.4% (104) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 38.7% (226) | 28.7% (344) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.1% (32) | 50.9% (154) |
| FT Percent | 70.1% (245) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.2% (81) | 34.1% (25) |
| Assist Percent | 49.0% (132) | 51.8% (151) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 17.1% (241) | 15.3% (23) |
| Block Percent | 8.7% (170) | 6.3% (16) |
The most remarkable thing about Arizona's defense is there is nothing remarkable about it. They are pretty good at most things, but not elite at anything.
Their strongest stat is their two point defense. However, they don't do it with a lot of blocked shots. They are just good at defending the paint.
They are pretty bad at generating turnovers.
In our first game, we shot miserably against them. 31% / 20% /55%. There is nothing in their defensive stats for the season that suggests that we will shoot as poorly at home.
They like to play very fast. We don't. We will need to pay attention to getting back on defense. Every game, Tubelis seems to beat the defense down the floor a couple of times for an easy basket. The will make Coach Cronin very angry.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
Arizona State's offense isn't very good and we have an elite defense.
UCLA Defense | Arizona Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 2 | 6 |
| Torvick Rank | 2 | 5 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 84 |
| FG Percent | 40.5% | 49.4% |
| Effective FG Percent | 46.5% (26) | 56.6% (4) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.7% (28) | 37.7% (21) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 39.7% (264) | 38.3% (151) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.9% (51) | 56.6% (9) |
| FT Percent | 71.8% (180) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.3% (173) | 31.8% (77) |
| Assist Percent | 52.2% (218) | 66.3% (3) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (6) | 18.2% (177) |
| Block Percent | 12.1% (47) | 9.2% (221) |
Arizona is an elite offensive team. We are an elite defensive team. It's a matchup for the ages.
They are really good at three-point shooting and even better at two-point shooting. Even though they are a very fast-tempo team, they are not a big one-on-one team. They get assists on 2/3rds of their baskets.
It they have any weaknesses, they are turnovers and getting shots blocked. They turn the ball over quite a bit and get a lot of shots blocked. We are well equipped to take advantage of both of those.
In our first game we held them to 39% and 28% on threes. They had 17 turnovers, but we only had two blocks. If we have defensive numbers like that on Saturday, we should be in great shape at home.
Advantage: Even. They say great defense beats great offense. I'm not sure that's always true.
OTHER FACTORS
| Arizona | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 7.3 | 3.8 |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 31.8% (77) | 34.1% (25) |
| Defensive Rebound Percent | 73.8% (81) | 71.7% (173) |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| Extra Scoring Chances | -0.5 (203) | 8.9 (2) |
The rebound margin may seem a bit daunting, but that is partly the result of Arizona playing a fast pace. When you look at the other rebounding numbers, we seem pretty even on the boards.
Arizona leads the Pac-12 in A/TO ratio. We are #2. They have a small edge here.
However, we have a BIG edge in Extra Scoring Chances.
Advantage: UCLA.
PLAYERS
Arizona is the 15th tallest team in the country (which is only the 6th tallest team in the Pac-12.)
Coach Lloyd has settled on a 7-man rotation. They are pretty heavily dependent on their top six players. They are #287 in the US in bench minutes.
They have a lot of talent, with five Top 100 players, but we have eight Top 100 players.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Azuolas Tubelis F | Jr | 6-11 245 | 4-star 57 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 58% | 33% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Oumar Ballo C | Jr | 7-0 260 | 4-star 78 | 30 | 28 | 14 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 64% | 0.9 | ||
| Courtney Ramey G | Sr | 6-3 185 | 4-star 43 | 27 | 31 | 11 | 3.7 | 41% | 41% | 72% | 2.4 | ||
| Kerr Kriisa G | Jr | 6-3 190 | 4-star 85 | 30 | 31 | 11 | 5.4 | 38% | 38% | 77% | 2.0 | ||
| Pelle Larsson G | Jr | 6-5 215 | 3-star 20 | 30 | 28 | 10 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 46% | 33% | 48% | 1.7 | |
| Cedric Henderson Jr. G | Sr | 6-6 200 | Unranked | 30 | 22 | 8 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 48% | 42% | 42% | 0.8 | |
| Kylan Boswell G | Fr | 6-1 190 | 4-star 30 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 1.6 | 41% | 33% | 57% | 2.1 | ||
| Henri Veesaar F | Fr | 7-0 200 | Unranked | 25 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 63% | 28% | 1.3 | |||
| Adama Bal G | So | 6-7 190 | 4-star 131 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 0.6 | 38% | 35% | 1.1 | |||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The first two players are primarily
As I am sure you have heard many times, Tubelis leads the Pac-12 in scoring and rebounding. He is a terrific player and Jaimie Jaquez's primary competition for Pac-12 player of the year. He is excellent around the basket and can score in a variety of ways, even if HE LIKES TO GO TO HIS LEFT. He will shoot a three point shot around once a game, but he is much more dangerous inside the ard. He does everything well, including rebounding, blocking shots, and running the floor.
The other two-point shooter is Tubelis' front-court mate, Oumar Ballo. He's strong, mobile and skilled around the basket, but he seems to score a ton on dunks off of high-low action. Ballo and Tubelis may be the best two big men on the same team in the country.
The next two guys are the three-point shooters.
Texas transfer Courtney Ramey was brought in for his three-point shooting, and he has been good at it. 72% of his shots are three-pointers. He also handles the ball well, and leads the team in steals.
If you think 72% is a high percentage of threes, then there is everyone's least favorite Wildcat Kerr Kriisa. 77% of his shots are threes. Given his poor shooting inside the arc, that is appropriate.
He leads the Pac-12 in assists (in large part because of the team's tempo), and he also leads the team in turnovers. Nonetheless, his A/TO ratio is very good.
He's at his best when he plays facilitator. When he decides to be a scorer, he often plays too much hero ball. In their five losses he was 12 of 49 (24%) from the field and 9 of 42 (21%) from the arc.
Pelle Larsson (son of Lars) was the Pac-12's best 6th man at Utah, but became a starter at Arizona. Then Lloyd moved him back to his sixth-man role. He does everything pretty well.
Replacing the son of Lars in the starting lineup was Cedric Henderson Jr (son of Cedric Henderson). He is shooting better that Pelle, and he rebounds about as well. The change makes sense.
Freshman Kylan Boswell is going to be a terrific player. He already has an excellent A/TO ratio. His shooting hasn't been great, although he scored 15 against USC.
CONCLUSION
Arizona is very good, even if they are not as good as last season. Their two-headed big man monster will definitely be a challenge for us. In our last meeting, both Bona and Nwuba ended up with 4 fouls, and Nwuba only played 10 minutes.
We did outrebound them 44-37, and we won the turnover battle 17-11, However, they got 9 more points at the free-throw line and won the game by 6.
We are more talented than they are, and we are playing at home. We have been excellent at home, and they haven't been dominant on the road.
We will be favored and we should be. However, these are two really good teams, and in any one game anything can happen.
I HATE losing to Arizona. I think our seniors feel the same way. It's Senior Night. I think we make it a happy one.
I see this game as a 10 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!