Post by mhbruin on Feb 23, 2023 17:17:42 GMT -8
Predictions are hard. In my Utah preview I wrote, "Mike Saunders Jr. transferred from Cincinnati. He's not related to former UCLA player Mike Sanders. He hasn't shot the ball well." How do you predict that a guy who was shooting 35% and 18% from the arc would go off for 10 of 17 and 3 of 6 on threes for 25 points?
I should quit, but apparently I am a glutton for punishment.
Three key Colorado subs didn't play in the USC game last night. Will they play against us? It beats me. However, I don't think it will mattter. I also doubt that someone from deep on the Colorado bench will pull a Mike Saunders and go off for 25 against us.
Colorado is a "good field, no hit" team. Excellent defense. Crappy offense.
METRICS
For some reason, all the computers predict we will score exactly 70 points. They also predict that this will be a slightly easier game than the Utah game.
Estimated Line: UCLA -6
Line: UCLA -7 (7-point favorites win 76% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 80% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 70-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 73% of the time, 70-63.
COLORADO'S RECORD
Colorado is the ultimate schizo team. They have three Quad 1 wins over Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at Arizona State. Then they have a Quad 4 losss at Cal.
They also have Quad 3 losses to Washington, UMass, Grambling, and Oregon State.
Apparently they can beat just about anyone and lose to just about anyone.
They are the worst kind of team to play. They aren't very good, so a win over them doesn't help much. Their lbeat-down by USC drops this to a Quad 2 game.
However, they are dangerous, and a loss in Boulder would be our worst loss of the year.
According to KenPom, Utah has the 4th best home court advantage in the nation. 5,430 feet of altitude helps. It helps that we don't have to play until Sunday. If we travel to Colorado on Friday, we have two full days to adapt, and the game in Salt Lake City doesn't hurt.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
Exxcelent offense meets excellent defense.
Colorado is a very different defense from Utah's. They are good against the two-point shot, but not that good against the three. They tend to pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. That worked pretty well for them in our first meeting. We shot 38% from the field and 21% from the arc.
If you do try to go inside, they are pretty good at two things, stealing the ball and blocking shots.
How did we win that first game? We held them to 31% from the field. As I mentioned, they are not a very good offensive team. We also blocked a season-high 11 of their shots.
Unlike some of our other recent foes, they like to play pretty fast. I don't think we will match them.
Advantage: Even
Before the Utah game, I wrote, "There is one area of concern. Our free throw shooting isn't very good." Then we went 6 of 14 from the line. Danger, Will Robinson! This could cost us a game in March and end our season.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
Elite defense meets mediocre offense.
Colorado is a poor shooting team. They aer terrible from the arc and only fair from inside the arc. They are smart enough to not shoot a ton of threes, but they still shot around around 20 per game.
Their FT shooting is even worse than ours. About the only thing they do well is hit the offensive boards. After the Utah game, that should concern us.
They turn the ball over a lot. They average almost 14 per game. They turned it over 23 times in our first meeting. That's a season high for our opponents.
They are one of the worst teams in the country at getting shots blocked. It is no concindence that we had a season high 11 blocks in our first meeting.
Advantage: UCLA. A mediocre offense meets one of the best 2 or 3 defenses in the country. It has to be advantage UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Colorado may have a small edge on the boards.
We have the edge in A/TO ratio. KJ Simpson leads the Buffs with a 1.5 A/TO ratio. We have FIVE players who are better than that. (For extra credit, try to name them without looking.)
We have a significant edge in extra scoring chances. If you shoot a higher percentage (we do) and get more chances to score (we do), you have a VERY good chance of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Colorado lost 4 of their top 6 rotation players off of last season's team, including 3 starters. However Tad Boyle has always played a lot of players so he is bringing back 6 players who played more than 10 minutes per game last season.
Boyle continues to play a lot of guys this season. They are #20 in the country in bench minutes.
HOWEVER, three of those guys didn't play against USC, Hadley, Ruffin (knee), and Gabbidon (concussion). They represent 58 minutes, 18.6 points, and 3.1 assists per game. At this point, I don't know if any of they will play on Sunday. (None of the players who may be out for Colorado played in Boulder last season.)
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Tristan da Silva has emerged as the star of this team and should be All-Pac-12. He is an elite three-level scorer. He's scored over 20 in 6 of his last 9 games. He's by far the best shooter on the team, but for some reason KJ Simpson takes more shots than he does. The matchup between da Silve and Jaimie Jaquez should be a great one. Unlike Jaimie, he doesn't have the same quality of supporting cast.
Some commetators will tell you that KJ Simpson is the star of the Colorado team. He leads the team in assists, A/TO ratio and steals. He is second in scoring. However, he also leads the team in turnovers, and his A/TO ratio is nothing to get excited about, since his 1.5 makes him #247 in the country. His shooting hasn't been that good, and he shoots too many threes for a guy who is making 29% of them.
He can go off for big scoring games, including twice going over 30. He can also score 4 points on 1 for 13 shooting.
J'Vonne Hadley, who transferred from Northeastern) does everything well. He has the highest shooting percentage, he leads the team in rebounds, and he blocks shots. The only thing he doesn't do is shoot the three. He's only attempted one all season. Of course, if you don't shoot from the outside, your FG% should be high. If he can't play on Sunday, he will be missed.
Julian Hammond III is the opposite of Hadley. He doesn't do anything particularly well, including shooting. I assume he plays good defense.
I have no idea why Nique Clifford starts for them and plays 22 minutes a game. He rebounds pretty well and blocks an average of 1 shot per game, but he is a pretty poor shooter.
Freshman Javon Ruffin is their second-best three-point shooter. That's what 36% gets you for the Buffs. He's one of three players who shoots above 30% on three-pointers. 61% of his shots are threes.
Luke O'Brien should not be confused with country singer Luke Bryan. He's should also not be confused with a good shooter. He has scored in double figures five times all season. He plays hard and rebounds well
Lawson Lovering is their only true center. He's never lived up to his lofty recruiting rating. He's not a great athlete, but he can score near the basket. He has a decent hook shot.
Jalen Gabbidon and Ethan Wright are transfers from the Ivy League. The Pac-12 is tougher than the Ivy League. If Coach Boyle was looking for some good shooters, neither Mr. Gabbidon nor Mr. Wright turned out to be Mr. Right.
We might also see Quincy Allen if some of the others are out for the game. Here's what one article said about him:
"Allen had played just nine minutes this season, all securely in garbage time, before playing nearly 17 minutes against the Trojans. He knocked down a 3-pointer shortly after checking in but couldn’t maintain the momentum offensively, finishing 2-for-8 (2-for-7 on 3-pointers)."
"Allen also recorded a rebound, one assist and four blocked shots without a turnover. The four blocked shots was the top total by any CU player this season."
CONCLUSION
It's hard to know which Colorado team will show up, the team that beat Tennesee and Texas A&M, or the team that lost to Cal. Their big wins were in November. The loss to Cal was in December.
It's hard to know which Buffalo team will play against us, the one with Hadley, Ruffin and Gabbidon, or one without some or all of them.
We are the better team. We should win this game. We have a great defense, and they aren't great shooters (other than da Silva.)
They do play good defense and that will keep you in a lot of games. I doubt we repeat our performance of getting them to commit 23 turnovers and blocking 11 shots, but they should have a hard time scoring on us.
I see this game as a 5 on the nail-biting scale. If Hadley doesn't play, I will make it a 4. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
I should quit, but apparently I am a glutton for punishment.
Three key Colorado subs didn't play in the USC game last night. Will they play against us? It beats me. However, I don't think it will mattter. I also doubt that someone from deep on the Colorado bench will pull a Mike Saunders and go off for 25 against us.
Colorado is a "good field, no hit" team. Excellent defense. Crappy offense.
METRICS
For some reason, all the computers predict we will score exactly 70 points. They also predict that this will be a slightly easier game than the Utah game.
Estimated Line: UCLA -6
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 80% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time 70-63.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 70-66
KemPom: UCLA wins 73% of the time, 70-63.
Colorado | UCLA | |
NET | 78 | 3 |
KenPom Rank | 52 | 2 |
Sagarin Rank | 67 | 4 |
Torvick Rank | 78 | 3 |
SOS | 47 | 52 |
Record | 24-4 | 15-14 |
COLORADO'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 6-4 | 6-0 | 6-0 | 6-0 |
Colorado | 3-6 | 4-3 | 4-4 | 4-1 |
Colorado is the ultimate schizo team. They have three Quad 1 wins over Tennessee, Texas A&M, and at Arizona State. Then they have a Quad 4 losss at Cal.
They also have Quad 3 losses to Washington, UMass, Grambling, and Oregon State.
Apparently they can beat just about anyone and lose to just about anyone.
They are the worst kind of team to play. They aren't very good, so a win over them doesn't help much. Their lbeat-down by USC drops this to a Quad 2 game.
However, they are dangerous, and a loss in Boulder would be our worst loss of the year.
UCLA Road | 8-2 |
Colorado Home | 11-3 |
According to KenPom, Utah has the 4th best home court advantage in the nation. 5,430 feet of altitude helps. It helps that we don't have to play until Sunday. If we travel to Colorado on Friday, we have two full days to adapt, and the game in Salt Lake City doesn't hurt.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS COLORADO'S DEFENSE
Exxcelent offense meets excellent defense.
Colorado Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 18 | 22 |
Torvick Rank | 22 | 27 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 74 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 59 of 363 | 231 |
FG Percent | 42.5% (106) | 46.5% |
Effective FG Percent | 48.1% (72) | 51.7% (121) |
3-Pt Percent | 32.8% (106) | 35.7% (84) |
3-Pt Rate | 38.6% (264) | 29.0% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 47.5% (71) | 50.9% (155) |
FT Percent | 70.2% (236) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.0% (163) | 34.8% (22) |
Assist Percent | 51.9% (208) | 52.4% (137) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 20.3% (72) | 15.6% (28) |
Block Percent | 12.1% (46) | 6.2% (13) |
Colorado is a very different defense from Utah's. They are good against the two-point shot, but not that good against the three. They tend to pack it in and challenge you to beat them from the outside. That worked pretty well for them in our first meeting. We shot 38% from the field and 21% from the arc.
If you do try to go inside, they are pretty good at two things, stealing the ball and blocking shots.
How did we win that first game? We held them to 31% from the field. As I mentioned, they are not a very good offensive team. We also blocked a season-high 11 of their shots.
Unlike some of our other recent foes, they like to play pretty fast. I don't think we will match them.
Advantage: Even
Before the Utah game, I wrote, "There is one area of concern. Our free throw shooting isn't very good." Then we went 6 of 14 from the line. Danger, Will Robinson! This could cost us a game in March and end our season.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS COLORADO'S OFFENSE
Elite defense meets mediocre offense.
UCLA Defense | Colorado Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 2 | 139 |
Torvick Rank | 2 | 178 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 59 | 70 |
FG Percent | 40.6% (32) | 43.4% (249) |
Effective FG Percent | 47.5% (84) | 48.7% (266) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.7% (30) | 31.4% (308) |
3-Pt Rate | 39.8% (271) | 34.3% (272) |
2-Pt Percent | 47.2 (65) | 49.6% (210) |
FT Percent | 69.4% (265) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.9% (155) | 31.6% (87) |
Assist Percent | 52.0% (206) | 50.6% (179) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.7% (5) | 19.2% (240) |
Block Percent | 12.3% (41) | 11.1% (327) |
Colorado is a poor shooting team. They aer terrible from the arc and only fair from inside the arc. They are smart enough to not shoot a ton of threes, but they still shot around around 20 per game.
Their FT shooting is even worse than ours. About the only thing they do well is hit the offensive boards. After the Utah game, that should concern us.
They turn the ball over a lot. They average almost 14 per game. They turned it over 23 times in our first meeting. That's a season high for our opponents.
They are one of the worst teams in the country at getting shots blocked. It is no concindence that we had a season high 11 blocks in our first meeting.
Advantage: UCLA. A mediocre offense meets one of the best 2 or 3 defenses in the country. It has to be advantage UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Colorado | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | 4.9 | 4.0 |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 31.5% (87) | 34.8% (22) |
Defensive Rebound Percent | 25.2% (48) | 27.9% (155) |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
Extra Scoring Chances | 2.9 (54) | 9.3 (1) |
Colorado may have a small edge on the boards.
We have the edge in A/TO ratio. KJ Simpson leads the Buffs with a 1.5 A/TO ratio. We have FIVE players who are better than that. (For extra credit, try to name them without looking.)
We have a significant edge in extra scoring chances. If you shoot a higher percentage (we do) and get more chances to score (we do), you have a VERY good chance of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Colorado lost 4 of their top 6 rotation players off of last season's team, including 3 starters. However Tad Boyle has always played a lot of players so he is bringing back 6 players who played more than 10 minutes per game last season.
Boyle continues to play a lot of guys this season. They are #20 in the country in bench minutes.
HOWEVER, three of those guys didn't play against USC, Hadley, Ruffin (knee), and Gabbidon (concussion). They represent 58 minutes, 18.6 points, and 3.1 assists per game. At this point, I don't know if any of they will play on Sunday. (None of the players who may be out for Colorado played in Boulder last season.)
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Tristan da Silva F | Jr | 6'9" 217 | Unranked | 28 | 20 | 65 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 52% | 41% | 33% | 0.6 | |
KJ Simpson G | So | 6'2" 177 | 4-star 86 | 27 | 31 | 16 | 3.9 | 40% | 29% | 34% | 1.5 | ||
J'Vonne Hadley G | Jr | 6'6" 215 | JUCO | 22 | 26 | 8 | 9.1 | 1.3 | 53% | 1.2 | |||
Julian Hammond III G | So | 6'3" 181 | 3-star 234 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 1.8 | 38% | 33% | 1.1 | |||
Nique Clifford G | Jr | 6'6" 191 | 4-star 116 | 28 | 21 | 6 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 39% | 28% | 1.0 | |
Javon Ruffin G | Fr | 6'5" 191 | 3-star 201 | 24 | 16 | 6 | 0.8 | 42% | 36% | 61% | 1.0 | ||
Luke O'Brien G | Jr | 6'8" 213 | 3-star 419 | 26 | 20 | 5 | 9.7 | 0.8 | 41% | 29% | 0.9 | ||
Jalen Gabbidon G | Sr | 6'5" 195 | Unranked | 22 | 18 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 41% | 29% | 1.2 | ||
Lawson Lovering C | So | 7'1" 225 | 4-star 64 | 27 | 22 | 4 | 8.4 | 1.0 | 53% | 0.6 | |||
Ethan Wright G | Sr | 6'3" 190 | Unranked | 28 | 12 | 3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 38% | 30% | 58% | 0.9 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Tristan da Silva has emerged as the star of this team and should be All-Pac-12. He is an elite three-level scorer. He's scored over 20 in 6 of his last 9 games. He's by far the best shooter on the team, but for some reason KJ Simpson takes more shots than he does. The matchup between da Silve and Jaimie Jaquez should be a great one. Unlike Jaimie, he doesn't have the same quality of supporting cast.
Some commetators will tell you that KJ Simpson is the star of the Colorado team. He leads the team in assists, A/TO ratio and steals. He is second in scoring. However, he also leads the team in turnovers, and his A/TO ratio is nothing to get excited about, since his 1.5 makes him #247 in the country. His shooting hasn't been that good, and he shoots too many threes for a guy who is making 29% of them.
He can go off for big scoring games, including twice going over 30. He can also score 4 points on 1 for 13 shooting.
J'Vonne Hadley, who transferred from Northeastern) does everything well. He has the highest shooting percentage, he leads the team in rebounds, and he blocks shots. The only thing he doesn't do is shoot the three. He's only attempted one all season. Of course, if you don't shoot from the outside, your FG% should be high. If he can't play on Sunday, he will be missed.
Julian Hammond III is the opposite of Hadley. He doesn't do anything particularly well, including shooting. I assume he plays good defense.
I have no idea why Nique Clifford starts for them and plays 22 minutes a game. He rebounds pretty well and blocks an average of 1 shot per game, but he is a pretty poor shooter.
Freshman Javon Ruffin is their second-best three-point shooter. That's what 36% gets you for the Buffs. He's one of three players who shoots above 30% on three-pointers. 61% of his shots are threes.
Luke O'Brien should not be confused with country singer Luke Bryan. He's should also not be confused with a good shooter. He has scored in double figures five times all season. He plays hard and rebounds well
Lawson Lovering is their only true center. He's never lived up to his lofty recruiting rating. He's not a great athlete, but he can score near the basket. He has a decent hook shot.
Jalen Gabbidon and Ethan Wright are transfers from the Ivy League. The Pac-12 is tougher than the Ivy League. If Coach Boyle was looking for some good shooters, neither Mr. Gabbidon nor Mr. Wright turned out to be Mr. Right.
We might also see Quincy Allen if some of the others are out for the game. Here's what one article said about him:
"Allen had played just nine minutes this season, all securely in garbage time, before playing nearly 17 minutes against the Trojans. He knocked down a 3-pointer shortly after checking in but couldn’t maintain the momentum offensively, finishing 2-for-8 (2-for-7 on 3-pointers)."
"Allen also recorded a rebound, one assist and four blocked shots without a turnover. The four blocked shots was the top total by any CU player this season."
CONCLUSION
It's hard to know which Colorado team will show up, the team that beat Tennesee and Texas A&M, or the team that lost to Cal. Their big wins were in November. The loss to Cal was in December.
It's hard to know which Buffalo team will play against us, the one with Hadley, Ruffin and Gabbidon, or one without some or all of them.
We are the better team. We should win this game. We have a great defense, and they aren't great shooters (other than da Silva.)
They do play good defense and that will keep you in a lot of games. I doubt we repeat our performance of getting them to commit 23 turnovers and blocking 11 shots, but they should have a hard time scoring on us.
I see this game as a 5 on the nail-biting scale. If Hadley doesn't play, I will make it a 4. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!