Post by mhbruin on Feb 20, 2023 11:40:44 GMT -8
Remember when Utah was the second place team in the Pac-12 with a win over Arizona? They were coming into Pauley to battle for the Pac-12 lead.
Since then they have gone 6-5. The Dec 1 win over Arizona seems like a distant memory.
We beat them handily, but they were playing without their best player.
Going into this game there are big questions about who will play for the Utes. Second-leading scorer Gabe Madsen hasn't played since Jan 28th. Team assist leader Rollie Worster left early in their most recent game with an injured ankle and never returned. It doesn't sound like either of them will play on Thursday.
In any event, Utah is well-coached and plays fundamentally sound basketball. Will that be enough?
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -5.5
Line: UCLA -7 (7-point favorites win 76% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-61
KemPom: UCLA wins 70% of the time, 68-62.
We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
UTAH'S RECORD
Utah's record is a little weird, with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 losses.
The Quad 1 wins are over Arizona and at Washington State. Their worst losses are to Oregon, Sam Houston State, BYU, and Stanford.
Sam Houston State isn't a terrible loss. They are #60 in the NET and #74 in KenPom. That puts them ahead of Stanford, Washington, Oregon St, and Cal. They have a win at Oklahoma.
Utah has lost 7 of their last 12 games. Since beating Arizona, their Pac-12 wins are over Washington St, Washington, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, and Cal. Those are the bottom six teams in the Pac-12. In other words, since Dec 1st, they do not have a win over a team with a winning record in the league.
On the other hand, we have to play them on the road. The road has not been kind to ranked teams this year.
According to KenPom, Utah has the 25th best home court advantage in the nation. 4,783 of altitude helps.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
This end of the floor will be where great offense meets great defense.
Utah plays mostly man defense, but they will throw in a little bit of zone.
Defensive efficiency is basically points per 100 possessions. Here are two key factors in how efficient your defense is:
Utah is elite at #1, but not very good at #2. Utah will be best effecitve FG defense we will face until the NCAA tournament.
Utah defends the two-point shot extremely well. They defend the three-point shot even better. We may find it hard to get high-quality shots.
If 5 of their last 9 games, they held their opponent to under 40% shooting. However, those games were against Washington St, Washington, Oregon St, Cal, and Colorado, who are 5 of the 6 worst shooting teams in the league. We are second best.
In addition, there are two other factors helping us on offense. We don't turn the ball over and we get a lot of offensive rebounds. Their defense doesn't help them, particularly on turnovers. They are one of the worst teams in the country in generating turnovers. They are #301 in the country in steals per game.
We should also get quite a few offensive boards. For such a tall team, their defensive rebounding is only fair.
All those extra shots we should get will mitigate a lower shooting percentage. That's if we shoot a low percentage.
They block a lot of shots. We don't get shots blocked. We may have a small edge here.
Advantage: Small Edge for UCLA
There is one area of concern. Our free throw shooting isn't very good.
Both teams play a slow tempo. In fact we are tied for how slowly we play. We should both be comfortable with that pace.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
Most of Utah's offensive stats range from mediocre to poor. They are really terrible at getting their shots blocked.
However, they could have an edge in two areas.
1) Their best stat is being #27 in assisted baskets. They are a very good passing team.
2) They are a good (not great) offensive rebounding team and our work on the defensive boards hasn't been great.
We have a clear edge in two areas where we are good and they are not:
1) Turnovers. We are #5 in the nation in generating them, and they are only fair in protecting the ball.
2) Blocking shots. We are very good at it, and they are poor at avoiding it.
We are the second most efficient defense in the country after Tennessee. They should have a hard time scoring against us.
All this is based on a full roster. However, they are likely missing their best outside shooter and their starting point guard. This was a mismatch if they had a full roster. They don't.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA has a small edge on the boards, but we can call this even.
We have a modest edge in A/TO ratio. Overall they are a good passing team and handle the ball well. But if Worster, who is their assist leader and best ball-handler cannot go, our edge become significant.
We have a BIG edge in extra scoring chances. If you shoot a higher percentage (we do) and get more chances to score (we do), you have a VERY good chance of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Utah is the ninth tallest team in the nation and the fifth tallest in the Pac-12. The Bruins are the 185th tallest team in the country. It is a bit of a surprise that for a tall team, their backup center is 6'7", although Kei
Utah has gone with 10 players for most of the season, but still relied heavily on their 5 leading scorers. They are 273st in bench minutes. If you check out the shooting percentages for their bench players, you can understand why.
Other than Brandon Carlson, this is not a talented roster, but with solid fundamentals and by playing together, they have overachieved. Good coaching will do that.
If Madsen and Worster don't go, expect them to rely on Carlson, Stefanovic, Anthony, Carlson, and Exacte, with Keita and Holt being the bench.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Branden Carlson (the tall guy with the headband) may be the only true center in the Pac-12 who leads his team in scoring. He also leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is 2nd in the league in blocks per game, 6th in rebounds, and 6th in scoring.
Carlson is the key to Utah's offense. He's very versatile scorer He can maneuver around the basket and hit the three. One-third of his shots are three-pointers, and he makes them at a decent clip. Our centers will need to defend him at the arc and near the bucket.
He is not a physical player, and he may not enjoy physical defense. Then again, he scored 22 against Ballo anc company in Tucson.
It will be interesting to see how Bona does against a center who is a legitimate 3-point threat. Mac Etienne may actually do a good job on him.
Gabe Madsen (the smaller guy with the headband) is a Cincinnati transfer. He shoots a lot of threes, with around 2/3rds of his shots coming from outside the arc. He has a quick release and shoots the three well off the dribble. Whoever is guarding him cannot leave him to double. (If he doesn't plays, you can ignore all this.)
Lazar Stefanovic shoots the almost same average inside and beyond the arc. Almost half his shots come from outside the arc. If Worster is not playing, he will play point guard for the Utes.
5th-year senior Marco Anthony is on his third school. After 2 years at Virginia, he transferred to Utah State, and then followed Coach Smith to Utah. He's considered their glue guy. He's their fouth-leading scorer, but he is not an outside threat. He's only made 6 three-point shots all season. He has a good midrange game, and he is dangerous off the dribble.
You might expect a guy who played for Tony Bennett at Virginia to be a very good on defense. You would be correct. Anthony is their best individual defender. He will probably be assigned to Jaimie Jaquez.
Rollie Worster is another player who followed coach Smith from Utah State. He leads the team in assists. He is #36 in the US at A/TO ratio, right behind #35, who is a guy named "Tyger". He is #40 in assists per game. If he can not play against us (as is likely), he will be sorely missed.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, where he played around 9 minutes a game. He's a good rebounder, but otherwise he isn't that productive.
Freshman Wilguens Exacte Jr. was playing more lately before the injuries. He has been pretty productive. He's a decent three-point shooter and over half his shots are from beyond the arc. He is more athletic than you might guess from his physique.
Keba Keita is from Mali. At 6'7" he is their backup center. He only shoots one or twice a game, but he makes a high percentage. He is very athletic and is good on the boards and at bleocking shots. He has 23 turnovers and 4 assists. That isn't good.
Mike Saunders Jr. transferred from Cincinnati. He's not related to former UCLA player Mike Sanders. He hasn't shot the ball well.
CONCLUSION
The computers see this as our toughest remaining game. They see a competive game, where we have the edge. However, the computers don't take injuries into account.
Anything can happen. After all, Louisville beat Clemson who was tied for second in the ACC. (Unforturnately for Cal, they are no longer the second worst power conference and 3-win team in America. They can no longer cheer, "We're better than Louisville." )
However, I am having a hard time seeing how Utah competes with us, even with their full roster playing at 100%. With the injuries, I think it gets much less likely.
Yes, it's a road game. Yes, it's at altitude. Yes, Utah is a decent team who once upon a time beat Arizona.
However, I don't see which matchups favor them, and I see plenty of matchups that favor us. They haven't had a quality win since December.
I suspect we will be ready to play on Thursday. If we are, we should move to 24-4.
I see this game as a 3 on the nail-biting scale, assuming Madsen and Worster don't play. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
Since then they have gone 6-5. The Dec 1 win over Arizona seems like a distant memory.
We beat them handily, but they were playing without their best player.
Going into this game there are big questions about who will play for the Utes. Second-leading scorer Gabe Madsen hasn't played since Jan 28th. Team assist leader Rollie Worster left early in their most recent game with an injured ankle and never returned. It doesn't sound like either of them will play on Thursday.
In any event, Utah is well-coached and plays fundamentally sound basketball. Will that be enough?
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -5.5
Line: UCLA -7 (7-point favorites win 76% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 68% of the time 66-62.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-61
KemPom: UCLA wins 70% of the time, 68-62.
Utah | UCLA | |
NET | 57 | 4 |
KenPom Rank | 55 | 3 |
Sagarin Rank | 60 | 4 |
Torvick Rank | 44 | 3 |
SOS | 75 | 52 |
Record | 23-4 | 17-11 |
We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
UTAH'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 5-4 | 7-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
Utah | 2-7 | 3-3 | 2-1 | 10-0 |
Utah's record is a little weird, with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 losses.
The Quad 1 wins are over Arizona and at Washington State. Their worst losses are to Oregon, Sam Houston State, BYU, and Stanford.
Sam Houston State isn't a terrible loss. They are #60 in the NET and #74 in KenPom. That puts them ahead of Stanford, Washington, Oregon St, and Cal. They have a win at Oklahoma.
Utah has lost 7 of their last 12 games. Since beating Arizona, their Pac-12 wins are over Washington St, Washington, Colorado, Oregon State, Stanford, and Cal. Those are the bottom six teams in the Pac-12. In other words, since Dec 1st, they do not have a win over a team with a winning record in the league.
On the other hand, we have to play them on the road. The road has not been kind to ranked teams this year.
UCLA Road | 7-2 |
Utah Home | 12-3 |
According to KenPom, Utah has the 25th best home court advantage in the nation. 4,783 of altitude helps.
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
This end of the floor will be where great offense meets great defense.
Utah plays mostly man defense, but they will throw in a little bit of zone.
Utah Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 33 | 23 |
Torvick Rank | 30 | 30 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 74 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 231 of 363 | 231 |
FG Percent | 38.9% (8) | 46.5% |
Effective FG Percent | 44.0% (4) | 51.7% (121) |
3-Pt Percent | 28.6% (8) | 35.7% (84) |
3-Pt Rate | 35.5% (124) | 29.0% (341) |
2-Pt Percent | 44.6% (13) | 50.9% (155) |
FT Percent | 771% (203) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.9% (157) | 34.8% (22) |
Assist Percent | 53,3% (241) | 52.4% (137) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 15.5% (334) | 15.6% (28) |
Block Percent | 10.5% (87) | 6.2% (13) |
Defensive efficiency is basically points per 100 possessions. Here are two key factors in how efficient your defense is:
- Holding your opponent to a low shooting percentage.
- Preventing your opponent from shooting at all by generating turnovers.
Utah is elite at #1, but not very good at #2. Utah will be best effecitve FG defense we will face until the NCAA tournament.
Utah defends the two-point shot extremely well. They defend the three-point shot even better. We may find it hard to get high-quality shots.
If 5 of their last 9 games, they held their opponent to under 40% shooting. However, those games were against Washington St, Washington, Oregon St, Cal, and Colorado, who are 5 of the 6 worst shooting teams in the league. We are second best.
In addition, there are two other factors helping us on offense. We don't turn the ball over and we get a lot of offensive rebounds. Their defense doesn't help them, particularly on turnovers. They are one of the worst teams in the country in generating turnovers. They are #301 in the country in steals per game.
We should also get quite a few offensive boards. For such a tall team, their defensive rebounding is only fair.
All those extra shots we should get will mitigate a lower shooting percentage. That's if we shoot a low percentage.
They block a lot of shots. We don't get shots blocked. We may have a small edge here.
Advantage: Small Edge for UCLA
There is one area of concern. Our free throw shooting isn't very good.
Both teams play a slow tempo. In fact we are tied for how slowly we play. We should both be comfortable with that pace.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Utah Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 2 | 102 |
Torvick Rank | 2 | 94 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 59 | 70 |
FG Percent | 40.6% (32) | 43.7% |
Effective FG Percent | 47.5% (84) | 50.0% (214) |
3-Pt Percent | 30.7% (30) | 34.2% (174) |
3-Pt Rate | 39.8% (271) | 37.3% (183) |
2-Pt Percent | 47.2 (65) | 49.3% (220) |
FT Percent | 71.6% (185) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.9% (155) | 31.7% (79) |
Assist Percent | 52.0% (206) | 58.0% (27) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.7% (5) | 18.2 (168) |
Block Percent | 12.3% (41) | 10.2% (288) |
Most of Utah's offensive stats range from mediocre to poor. They are really terrible at getting their shots blocked.
However, they could have an edge in two areas.
1) Their best stat is being #27 in assisted baskets. They are a very good passing team.
2) They are a good (not great) offensive rebounding team and our work on the defensive boards hasn't been great.
We have a clear edge in two areas where we are good and they are not:
1) Turnovers. We are #5 in the nation in generating them, and they are only fair in protecting the ball.
2) Blocking shots. We are very good at it, and they are poor at avoiding it.
We are the second most efficient defense in the country after Tennessee. They should have a hard time scoring against us.
All this is based on a full roster. However, they are likely missing their best outside shooter and their starting point guard. This was a mismatch if they had a full roster. They don't.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
Utah | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | 2.1 | 4.0 |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 31.7% (79) | 34.8% (22) |
Defensive Rebound Percent | 27.9% (157) | 27.9% (155) |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
Extra Scoring Chances | -1.6 (260) | 9.4 (1) |
UCLA has a small edge on the boards, but we can call this even.
We have a modest edge in A/TO ratio. Overall they are a good passing team and handle the ball well. But if Worster, who is their assist leader and best ball-handler cannot go, our edge become significant.
We have a BIG edge in extra scoring chances. If you shoot a higher percentage (we do) and get more chances to score (we do), you have a VERY good chance of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Utah is the ninth tallest team in the nation and the fifth tallest in the Pac-12. The Bruins are the 185th tallest team in the country. It is a bit of a surprise that for a tall team, their backup center is 6'7", although Kei
Utah has gone with 10 players for most of the season, but still relied heavily on their 5 leading scorers. They are 273st in bench minutes. If you check out the shooting percentages for their bench players, you can understand why.
Other than Brandon Carlson, this is not a talented roster, but with solid fundamentals and by playing together, they have overachieved. Good coaching will do that.
If Madsen and Worster don't go, expect them to rely on Carlson, Stefanovic, Anthony, Carlson, and Exacte, with Keita and Holt being the bench.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Branden Carlson C | Sr | 7'0" 228 | 4-star 102 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 10.2 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 52% | 35% | 33% | 0.7 |
Lazar Stefanovic G | So | 6'7" 186 | Unranked | 28 | 28 | 11 | 2.6 | 38% | 37% | 48% | 1.8 | ||
Marco Anthony G | Sr 5 | 6' 6" 226 | 3-star 244 | 25 | 32 | 10 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 47% | 38% | 8% | 1.4 | |
Ben Carlson F | Jr | 6'9" 227 | 4-star 107 | 28 | 20 | 5 | 9.7 | 0.5 | 47% | 30% | 35% | 0.6 | |
Wilguens Exacte Jr. | Fr | 6'6" 230 | Unranked | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0.6 | 37% | 36% | 54% | 0.7 | ||
Keba Keita C | Fr | 6'7" 230 | 3-star 158 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 12.3 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 61% | 0.2 | ||
Mike Saunders Jr. G | Jr | 6'0" 185 | 3-star 240 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 35% | 18% | 1.5 | |||
Bostyn Holt F | Sr | 6'6" 193 | Unranked JUCO | 20 | 8 | 2 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 41% | 17% | 0.8 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Branden Carlson (the tall guy with the headband) may be the only true center in the Pac-12 who leads his team in scoring. He also leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is 2nd in the league in blocks per game, 6th in rebounds, and 6th in scoring.
Carlson is the key to Utah's offense. He's very versatile scorer He can maneuver around the basket and hit the three. One-third of his shots are three-pointers, and he makes them at a decent clip. Our centers will need to defend him at the arc and near the bucket.
He is not a physical player, and he may not enjoy physical defense. Then again, he scored 22 against Ballo anc company in Tucson.
It will be interesting to see how Bona does against a center who is a legitimate 3-point threat. Mac Etienne may actually do a good job on him.
Gabe Madsen (the smaller guy with the headband) is a Cincinnati transfer. He shoots a lot of threes, with around 2/3rds of his shots coming from outside the arc. He has a quick release and shoots the three well off the dribble. Whoever is guarding him cannot leave him to double. (If he doesn't plays, you can ignore all this.)
Lazar Stefanovic shoots the almost same average inside and beyond the arc. Almost half his shots come from outside the arc. If Worster is not playing, he will play point guard for the Utes.
5th-year senior Marco Anthony is on his third school. After 2 years at Virginia, he transferred to Utah State, and then followed Coach Smith to Utah. He's considered their glue guy. He's their fouth-leading scorer, but he is not an outside threat. He's only made 6 three-point shots all season. He has a good midrange game, and he is dangerous off the dribble.
You might expect a guy who played for Tony Bennett at Virginia to be a very good on defense. You would be correct. Anthony is their best individual defender. He will probably be assigned to Jaimie Jaquez.
Rollie Worster is another player who followed coach Smith from Utah State. He leads the team in assists. He is #36 in the US at A/TO ratio, right behind #35, who is a guy named "Tyger". He is #40 in assists per game. If he can not play against us (as is likely), he will be sorely missed.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, where he played around 9 minutes a game. He's a good rebounder, but otherwise he isn't that productive.
Freshman Wilguens Exacte Jr. was playing more lately before the injuries. He has been pretty productive. He's a decent three-point shooter and over half his shots are from beyond the arc. He is more athletic than you might guess from his physique.
Keba Keita is from Mali. At 6'7" he is their backup center. He only shoots one or twice a game, but he makes a high percentage. He is very athletic and is good on the boards and at bleocking shots. He has 23 turnovers and 4 assists. That isn't good.
Mike Saunders Jr. transferred from Cincinnati. He's not related to former UCLA player Mike Sanders. He hasn't shot the ball well.
CONCLUSION
The computers see this as our toughest remaining game. They see a competive game, where we have the edge. However, the computers don't take injuries into account.
Anything can happen. After all, Louisville beat Clemson who was tied for second in the ACC. (Unforturnately for Cal, they are no longer the second worst power conference and 3-win team in America. They can no longer cheer, "We're better than Louisville." )
However, I am having a hard time seeing how Utah competes with us, even with their full roster playing at 100%. With the injuries, I think it gets much less likely.
Yes, it's a road game. Yes, it's at altitude. Yes, Utah is a decent team who once upon a time beat Arizona.
However, I don't see which matchups favor them, and I see plenty of matchups that favor us. They haven't had a quality win since December.
I suspect we will be ready to play on Thursday. If we are, we should move to 24-4.
I see this game as a 3 on the nail-biting scale, assuming Madsen and Worster don't play. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!