Post by mhbruin on Feb 15, 2023 10:44:31 GMT -8
Next on the menu are the bad-news, last-place Bears.
They aren't the worst power-conference team or 3-win team in America. That honor goes to Louisville.
So Cal has something to cheer about: "We're better than Louisville!!"
I could probably skip the rest of this preview and simply say, "California is terrible. We are great. We are going to win." If you want to know the gory details, read on.
The Bears are not in the Top 100 nationally in any significant statistic. They aren't good at anything, and they are bad at quite a few things. They are terrible at some.
The real question is, "How did they manage to win three games?"
METRICS
Estimated line: UCLA -23.5
Line: UCLA -24.5 (With an O/U of 125, this predicts a score of 75-50.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 99% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 83-52 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 99%, 75-50
The computers don't expect this to be a close game. They don't expect California to score much more than 50 points. Neither does Las Vegas.
If any Cal fans are looking for the positive, according to KenPom, they are the best 23-loss team in the country.
Everyone agrees that we are the best 4-loss team in the country.
CALIFORNIA'S RECORD
California has beaten Colorado, Stanford, and UT-Arlington. In the two Pac-12 wins, they had Dejuan Clayton.
They have lost to Texas State, Southern, and UC San Diego. (That's not SDSU or even Steve Lavin's USD. For bonus points, what's the nickname of UC San Diego?)
They have had a few games where they kept it close. They lost to Clemson by 8. They have taken Washington and Arizona State to overtime. They only lost to Kansas State by 9.
They are 1-5 in close games.
We are undefeated at home, and they have not won a road game. Pauley Pavillion is the wrong place for the Bears to find a road win.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CALIFORNIA'S DEFENSE
Cal has the perfect combination for unwatchable basketball: 1) Horrible offense. 2) Bad defense. 3) Playing VERY, VERY slowly. They are almost the slowest team in the country.
What's the cure for UCLA's Offensive Woes? Jaimie Jaquez Jr and facing Cal's defense.
California is bad at just about everything on defense. They defend the three-pointer less badly than they defend the two-point shot. That shouldn't help them much, since we don't shoot a lot of threes.
While they let teams shoot a high percentage, they make it worse by not getting a lot of turnovers and by giving up a lot of offensive rebounds. We are really strong in not turning the ball over and on the offensive boards.
No one is a good matchup for Cal. UCLA is a terrible one.
Advantage: UCLA (Big)
This is a game between slower and slowest.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS CALIFORNIA'S OFFENSE
As bad as Cal's defense is, their offense is even worse.
Look at all that red in the right column. Those are all the things that Cal is terrible at. They are terrible at three-point shooting and even worse at two-point shooting. They turn the ball over a ton, and they get a lot of their shots blocked.
Given all this, and that they play slowly, is it any wonder that they are #350 our of 352 teams in points scored?
Now they have to face the best defense they have seen all season. It should not be a surprise that the computers and Vegas predict they will have a hard time scoring much more than 50.
Cal has had 7 games this season where they scored less than 50. I think this will make it 8 games.
Advantage: UCLA (MASSIVE!)
OTHER FACTORS
To complement their bad offense and defense, they are bad at everything else. Their rebounding is bad. Their ball-handling is bad.
Advantage: UCLA (MASSIVE!)
PLAYERS
I have found a stat where California is near the top of the nation: height. They are the 6th tallest team in the nation. What they have in height, they make up for by not being very athletic or skilled.
To add to their woes, da Bears have injury problems. Leading scorer Devin Askew is done for the season, and third-leading scorer Dejuan Clayton may be out. Clayton led them in three-point shooting, although that is a low bar on this team. Both of their Pac-12 wins and their two closest conference losses were when Clayton was playing.
Clayton has only played in 9 games this season. He did not play in their Thursday game against USC. I don't know about his availability against us.
Jalen Celestine would have likely been a starter, but he was lost for the season before the season even began.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
California has a bunch of players who shoot miserably. Clayton, Kuany, Alajiki, Bowser, and Roberson all shoot 40% or less from the floor. Newell, Brown, Bowser, and Roberson shoot less than 30% from the arc. Brown, Bowser, and Roberson make both lists of bad shooters.
The only 3 players who don't make either list are their three post players, who don't take threes and mostly shoot near the hoop.
The other thing to notice is that they are not a great passing team. Joel Brown is ostensibly their PG, but he has a mediocre 1.5 A/TO ratio. He leads the team in assists (3.0) and steals (0.8), but neither of those numbers is spectacular. Normally a 40% / 25% / 50% guy wouldn't be playing much, but they don't have anyone else to handle the ball.
7'1" Lars Thiemann leads the team in points and rebounds. The fact that a 7-1 player doesn't block a lot of shots indicates that he isn't a great athlete, but he plays pretty well around the hoop. He leads the team in turnovers, which is a bit unusual for a guy who isn't a ball-handler.
Dejuan Clayton has played every season since 2016-17. He had played at least 2 games in SEVEN straight seasons. Five seasons were at Coppin State, one was at Hartford, and one has been at Cal. As mentioned, they play better when he plays, and I don't know his status for our game. Better means 2-7 when he plays and 1-16 without him.
Kuany Kuany is a decent ball-handler and a decent all-around player. His 40% from the field is the second best among non-post players.
Grant Newell is a nice-looking freshman. On most teams, he would be getting some bench minutes, but with this roster he is starting. His 42% from the field is the best on the team for a non-post player. He doesn't shoot a lot of threes.
Sam Alajiki leads the team in three-point attempts. Given how poorly he shoots from inside the arc, that seems smart.
ND Okafor was not highly rated out of high school, but he had offers from Arizona and Baylor. He is very athletic, and he leads the team om blocks, even though he only plays 13 minutes per game. His offensive game is pretty raw.
Monty Bowser may be their highest-rated recruit, but his other offers were from Cal Poly, CSUN, and Grand Canyon. He's dogged by poor shooting.
Marsalis Roberson is the worst shooter on a bad-shooting team. I am not sure why he plays 13 minutes per game.
Obinna Anyanwu has played 239 minutes for Cal over two seasons. In that time he has had ZERO assists and 13 turnovers. He is athletic but very raw.
A guy named "Wrenn Robinson" may play. That should be exciting for anyone who likes players with bird names embedded in their names.
CONCLUSION
California has two chances to win this game: Slim and none.
If Dejuan Clayton plays, their chances of winning go up a bit. They had four games where they scored more than 68 points. One was against UT-Arlington. Their top 3 scoring games were with Clayton in the lineup, when they scored 92, 80, and 78 points.
If Clayton doesn't play, Slim has just left town.
Go Bruins!
KUANY KUANY
Although I did not go 94 feet with Kuany Kuany, I have learned some personal information about him.
They aren't the worst power-conference team or 3-win team in America. That honor goes to Louisville.
So Cal has something to cheer about: "We're better than Louisville!!"
I could probably skip the rest of this preview and simply say, "California is terrible. We are great. We are going to win." If you want to know the gory details, read on.
The Bears are not in the Top 100 nationally in any significant statistic. They aren't good at anything, and they are bad at quite a few things. They are terrible at some.
The real question is, "How did they manage to win three games?"
METRICS
Estimated line: UCLA -23.5
Line: UCLA -24.5 (With an O/U of 125, this predicts a score of 75-50.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 99% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 98% of the time.73-51
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 83-52 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 99%, 75-50
The computers don't expect this to be a close game. They don't expect California to score much more than 50 points. Neither does Las Vegas.
| California | UCLA | |
| NET | 300 | 4 |
| KenPom Rank | 262 | 3 |
| Sagarin Rank | 220 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 253 | 4 |
| SOS | 42 | 41 |
| Record | 3-23 | 22-4 |
If any Cal fans are looking for the positive, according to KenPom, they are the best 23-loss team in the country.
Everyone agrees that we are the best 4-loss team in the country.
CALIFORNIA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 4-4 | 7-0 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
| California | 0-7 | 1-9 | 1-3 | 1-4 |
California has beaten Colorado, Stanford, and UT-Arlington. In the two Pac-12 wins, they had Dejuan Clayton.
They have lost to Texas State, Southern, and UC San Diego. (That's not SDSU or even Steve Lavin's USD. For bonus points, what's the nickname of UC San Diego?)
They have had a few games where they kept it close. They lost to Clemson by 8. They have taken Washington and Arizona State to overtime. They only lost to Kansas State by 9.
They are 1-5 in close games.
| UCLA Home | 14-0 |
| California Road | 0-9 |
We are undefeated at home, and they have not won a road game. Pauley Pavillion is the wrong place for the Bears to find a road win.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS CALIFORNIA'S DEFENSE
Cal has the perfect combination for unwatchable basketball: 1) Horrible offense. 2) Bad defense. 3) Playing VERY, VERY slowly. They are almost the slowest team in the country.
What's the cure for UCLA's Offensive Woes? Jaimie Jaquez Jr and facing Cal's defense.
California Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 221 | 24 |
| Torvick Rank | 188 | 34 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 70 | 74 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 352 of 358 | 241 |
| FG Percent | 45.1% | 46.4% |
| Effective FG Percent | 51.7% (247) | 51.5% (128) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 33.9% (169) | 36.2% (63) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 38.7% (225) | 28.5% (344) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 52.3% (279) | 50.5% (161) |
| FT Percent | 71% (196) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 30.1% (254) | 34.9% (20) |
| Assist Percent | 52.4% (214) | 52.0% (155) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 16.1% (315) | 15.7% (30) |
| Block Percent | 9.3% (142) | 6.3% (15) |
California is bad at just about everything on defense. They defend the three-pointer less badly than they defend the two-point shot. That shouldn't help them much, since we don't shoot a lot of threes.
While they let teams shoot a high percentage, they make it worse by not getting a lot of turnovers and by giving up a lot of offensive rebounds. We are really strong in not turning the ball over and on the offensive boards.
No one is a good matchup for Cal. UCLA is a terrible one.
Advantage: UCLA (Big)
This is a game between slower and slowest.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS CALIFORNIA'S OFFENSE
As bad as Cal's defense is, their offense is even worse.
UCLA Defense | California Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 2 | 296 |
| Torvick Rank | 2 | 293 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored | 60 | 59 |
| FG Percent | 41% | 40.2% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.2% (49) | 45.1% (348) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.6% (29) | 30.9% (325) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 41.0% (293) | 32.0% (311) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 48.1% (96) | 45.5% (342) |
| FT Percent | 71.8% (182) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.0% (158) | 26.1% (255) |
| Assist Percent | 52.4% (214) | 46.9% (285) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 25.0% (4) | 20.8% (318) |
| Block Percent | 12.3% (39) | 11.0% (319) |
Look at all that red in the right column. Those are all the things that Cal is terrible at. They are terrible at three-point shooting and even worse at two-point shooting. They turn the ball over a ton, and they get a lot of their shots blocked.
Given all this, and that they play slowly, is it any wonder that they are #350 our of 352 teams in points scored?
Now they have to face the best defense they have seen all season. It should not be a surprise that the computers and Vegas predict they will have a hard time scoring much more than 50.
Cal has had 7 games this season where they scored less than 50. I think this will make it 8 games.
Advantage: UCLA (MASSIVE!)
OTHER FACTORS
| California | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | -2.3 | 4.2 |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.1% (255) | 34.9% (20) |
| Defensive Rebound Percent | 69.9% (254) | 72.0% (158) |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.7 to 1 (343) | 1.4 to 1 (23) |
| Extra Scoring Chances | -4.8 (346) | 9.5 (1) |
To complement their bad offense and defense, they are bad at everything else. Their rebounding is bad. Their ball-handling is bad.
Advantage: UCLA (MASSIVE!)
PLAYERS
I have found a stat where California is near the top of the nation: height. They are the 6th tallest team in the nation. What they have in height, they make up for by not being very athletic or skilled.
To add to their woes, da Bears have injury problems. Leading scorer Devin Askew is done for the season, and third-leading scorer Dejuan Clayton may be out. Clayton led them in three-point shooting, although that is a low bar on this team. Both of their Pac-12 wins and their two closest conference losses were when Clayton was playing.
Clayton has only played in 9 games this season. He did not play in their Thursday game against USC. I don't know about his availability against us.
Jalen Celestine would have likely been a starter, but he was lost for the season before the season even began.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Lars Thiemann F | Sr | 7-1 | Unranked | 26 | 32 | 16 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 50% | -- | 0.3 | |
| DeJuan Clayton G ?? | Sr | 6-2 | Unranked | 9 | 26 | 10 | 0.6 | 28% | 38% | 1.7 | |||
| Kuany Kuany F | Sr | 6-8 | 3-star 354 | 26 | 25 | 9 | 0.8 | 39% | 32% | 41% | 1.5 | ||
| Grant Newell F | Fr | 6-8 | 3-star 299 | 26 | 26 | 8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 42% | 29% | 8% | 0.7 | |
| Sam Alajiki F | So | 6-7 | Unranked | 23 | 22 | 6 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 37% | 35% | 63% | 0.8 | |
| Joel Brown G | Sr | 6-3 | 3-star 191 | 26 | 32 | 6 | 3.0 | 40% | 25% | 1.5 | |||
| ND Okafor F | Fr | 6-9 | 3-star 187 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 8.1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 49% | -- | 0.4 | |
| Monty Bowser F | So | 6-7 | 4-star 131 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 0.4 | 35% | 29% | 54% | 0.6 | ||
| Marsalis Roberson G | So | 6-6 | 3-star 156 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 30% | 22% | 0.7 | ||
| Obinna Anyanwu F | So | 6-7 | 3-star 192 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 71% | -- | 0.0 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
California has a bunch of players who shoot miserably. Clayton, Kuany, Alajiki, Bowser, and Roberson all shoot 40% or less from the floor. Newell, Brown, Bowser, and Roberson shoot less than 30% from the arc. Brown, Bowser, and Roberson make both lists of bad shooters.
The only 3 players who don't make either list are their three post players, who don't take threes and mostly shoot near the hoop.
The other thing to notice is that they are not a great passing team. Joel Brown is ostensibly their PG, but he has a mediocre 1.5 A/TO ratio. He leads the team in assists (3.0) and steals (0.8), but neither of those numbers is spectacular. Normally a 40% / 25% / 50% guy wouldn't be playing much, but they don't have anyone else to handle the ball.
7'1" Lars Thiemann leads the team in points and rebounds. The fact that a 7-1 player doesn't block a lot of shots indicates that he isn't a great athlete, but he plays pretty well around the hoop. He leads the team in turnovers, which is a bit unusual for a guy who isn't a ball-handler.
Dejuan Clayton has played every season since 2016-17. He had played at least 2 games in SEVEN straight seasons. Five seasons were at Coppin State, one was at Hartford, and one has been at Cal. As mentioned, they play better when he plays, and I don't know his status for our game. Better means 2-7 when he plays and 1-16 without him.
Kuany Kuany is a decent ball-handler and a decent all-around player. His 40% from the field is the second best among non-post players.
Grant Newell is a nice-looking freshman. On most teams, he would be getting some bench minutes, but with this roster he is starting. His 42% from the field is the best on the team for a non-post player. He doesn't shoot a lot of threes.
Sam Alajiki leads the team in three-point attempts. Given how poorly he shoots from inside the arc, that seems smart.
ND Okafor was not highly rated out of high school, but he had offers from Arizona and Baylor. He is very athletic, and he leads the team om blocks, even though he only plays 13 minutes per game. His offensive game is pretty raw.
Monty Bowser may be their highest-rated recruit, but his other offers were from Cal Poly, CSUN, and Grand Canyon. He's dogged by poor shooting.
Marsalis Roberson is the worst shooter on a bad-shooting team. I am not sure why he plays 13 minutes per game.
Obinna Anyanwu has played 239 minutes for Cal over two seasons. In that time he has had ZERO assists and 13 turnovers. He is athletic but very raw.
A guy named "Wrenn Robinson" may play. That should be exciting for anyone who likes players with bird names embedded in their names.
CONCLUSION
California has two chances to win this game: Slim and none.
If Dejuan Clayton plays, their chances of winning go up a bit. They had four games where they scored more than 68 points. One was against UT-Arlington. Their top 3 scoring games were with Clayton in the lineup, when they scored 92, 80, and 78 points.
If Clayton doesn't play, Slim has just left town.
Go Bruins!
KUANY KUANY
Although I did not go 94 feet with Kuany Kuany, I have learned some personal information about him.
| Favorite Player | Bol Bol |
| Favorite Snack | Bon Bons |
| Favorite Place to Visit | Pago Pago |
| Least Favorite Place to Visit | Sing Sing |
| Favorite Basketball Stat | Double Double |
| Favorite In-n-Out Burger | Double Double |
| Favorite Gilbert and Sullivan Character | Yum-Yum |
| Favorite Magic | Gris Gris |