Stanford at UCLA Preview

Nexit we play the school named after a thief.  (Read about the history of the Transcontinental Railroad and the Crédit Mobilier scandal, if you want to know the story.)

This is not the school whose nickname means "the thieves". That would be Oklahoma. No, this is the school whose founder was a thief.

Meanwhile, the geniuses of Stanford are "The Cardinal", but have a tree (they claim it's a tree.) for a mascot.  Why not have a real cardinal for a mascot.

Introducing my proposed "Stanford Cardinal":



They can totally upstage Loyola-Chicago and Sister Jean.
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Turning to basketball, remember when Stanford was 0-7 in the Pac-12 and competing with Cal for finishing last in the league?  Those days are long gone.  (Actually it was just a month ago.)

Since then Stanford has gone 6-2, including a win over Arizona and a win at Utah.  

Should we be nervous, frightened, or scared?   No we should just be prepared.  



METRICS

Estimated line:  UCLA -14

Line: UCLA -14

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 94% of the time



According to Kenpom, Stanford is the second best 14-loss team in the country, after Ohio State.  The NET says they are third, after Ohio State and Nebraska.

Everyone agrees that we are the best 4-loss team in the country.

STANFORD''S RECORD


Stanford has had 3 decent wins all season, over Arizona, Utah, and Oregon.  Their worst losses?  To Mississippi (2-10 in the SEC) and Cal.  


We are undefeated at home, and they have been bad on the road, although their only road win was at Utah.  Their most recent road game was a 22-point loss to Colorado.  

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE

Remember when UCLA had a Top Ten offense?  No longer.  But we aren't going up against a great defense.

We also used to play a lot faster and our offense was better.  Are those two related?  Inquiring minds want to know.  

Yet we keep winning games.


There's nothing Stanford is very good at on defense.  They are pretty good on their defensive boards and decent at blocking shots.  We are VERY good on our offensive boards and not getting shots blocked, so it is hard to see then having an advantage in those areas.  

In every other area our offense is better than their defense.

Overall, we are still a very good offense aginst a mediocre defense.  We should win this end of the floor, pretty handily.

Advantage: UCLA (Big)

These are two slow-tempo teams.  Don't expect a lot of fast break basketball.  

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE



We are  #2 or #3 in defensive efficiency.  Stanford is a decent offensive team, but we are an elite defense.  

Stanford does a couple of thing well.  They are a good offensive rebounding team.  They are tall, so this is not a big surprise.  Since we are not great on our defensive boards, this is the one area where they have the advantage.

They also get a high percentage of their baskets off of assists.  (Anything over 50% is good.)  Teams that play us get a high percentage of their baskets off of assists.  This is the other area where Stanford has the advantage.

HOWEVER, this ignores the turnover elephant on the court.  Stanford turns the ball over a lot.  They don't have great point guard play.  And we are elite at causing turnovers.  

We also block a lot of shots, and they get quite a few of their shots blocked.  

Finally, they shoot a lot of three-point shots, and they aren't particularly good at it.  We are great at defending the arc.

I think that the Cardinal will be bit by the turnover bug, and that will be the deciding factor on this end of the floor.

Advantage: UCLA.

OTHER FACTORS


They are pretty good on both boards.  We are excellent on the offensive board, but not so great on our defensive board.  I would say the rebounding battle is pretty close.

We are significantly better at handling the ball.  As I mentioned, they don't have great point guard play.

We are better at getting extra scoring chances.  Whey you are #1 in the nation, you will always be better.

Advantage:  UCLA

PLAYERS

Stanford's improved play seems to have a lot to do with Jarod Haase cutting down his rotation. 

This may have not been entirely intentional.  James Keefe went out with an injury and Haase was forced to replace him with Maxime Raynaud in the starting lineup. At this point Stanford seems to have started playing a lot better. It doesn't seem that Jarod Haase made a brilliant coaching move.  An injury forced him to do the right thing.

At this point Stanford bascially plays 8 players, and it has been a pretty stable rotation.  Other than James Keefe, very few players have missed games.  

Stanford is another very tall team.  They are the 7^th tallest college team in the US.  I think they lead the nation in players named "Jones".  


* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

This is not generally a dangerous team from the 3-point line.  The dangerous shooter is Max Murrell, and Spencer Jones is pretty good from the arc.  Four of their rotation players are pretty bad outside shooters.  That's not to say a player cannot go off.  Michael O'Connell did.

Harrison Ingram used to get all  the ink as the "star of the team", probably because he was so highly rated out of HS.  He's a good college player, but I don't think Ingram is an NBA player.  Spencer Jones is their best player, even if he is not shooting that well.  He leads the team in points, steals, and blocks.  The fact that he leads the team in blocks at 6'7" should give you an idea about how good an athlete he is.  

Harrison Ingram, the McDonald's All American, is their second-leading scorer.  He is a pretty good college player, but he isn't shooting well, particulalry inside the arc.  He leads the team in assists.  

Michael Jones is a Davidson transfer where he scored 12 points per game.  He scored 31 in his first game in a Stanford uniform on 9 of 15 shooting.  That was against Pacific.  He looked like a superstar.  Unfortunately, Stanford doesn't play every game against Pacific.  He hasn't scored more than 18 since, and he has looked pretty ordinary.  Like most Stanford players, he doesn't shoot the ball all that well.  He comes off the bench, but plays starter minutes.

Maxime Raynaud is tall and moves pretty well for a tall guy.  He has some offense close to the basket.  He isn't a great leaper, as you might guess from his modest number of blocks for a 7-1 guy.  He is a good rebounder.  He shoots 1 or 2 three-pointers most games, but not that well.  We want him to shoot 3-pointers against us.  

Brandon Angel is not the answer to Jarod Haase's prayers, but he is a pretty good all-around player.   He does suffer from the Stanford disease.  He isn't a great shooter, particularly from distance.  

Michael O'Connell is ostensibly their point guard, but he only has modest assist numbers.  He's not usually much of a scorer.  Going into the Arizona game, he only scored in double figures in 4 out of 24 games with a career best of 11 points.   On the season he was 3 of 20 from the arc.  He had never made more than 1 three-pointer in a game.

So what happened against Arizona?  O'Connell doubled his career best with 22 points on 6 of 10 shots and 3 of 5 from the arc.  If he scores 22 against us, we will be in trouble.  He won't score 22 against us.  He won't score 10, and we won't be in trouble against Stanford. 

Interestingly, Stanford beat Arizona when McConnell had 2 turnovers and zero assists.   I guess you can forgive that from your starting PG if he scores 22.  

Max Murrell is by far their best 3-point shooter in the rotation.  (Bench warmer Ryan Agarwal is very good, too.)  However, he doesn't play that much and rarely takes very many of them in a game.  

Isa Silva is their backup PG.  He doesn't have a very good A/TO ratio, but he is not the turnover machine he was last year.  He is still trying to find his shooting touch.

CONCLUSION

Stanford was considered a possible tournament team before the season.   Then they looked like they might finish last in the Pac-12.  They currently reside in 9th place.  

If this game were in Palo Alto, I might give the Cardinal a puncher's chance.  This game isn't in Palo Alto.  Michael O'Connell won't be scoring 22, and Stanford will not be winning this game.  The computers give Stanford a 5% chance of winning.  I am not sure it will be that high.

Stanford may have had one surprise victory in them for this season.  They have used it up against Arizona.  They shot 61% against Arizona and 56% from that arc.  Not against our defense.

Go Bruins!









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