UCLA at Oregon Preview

In my last preview, I wrote, "When the KenPom #266 offense meets the #3 defense, you would expect it to be ugly."  

What does ugly look like?  With 4:41 left in the game, Oregon State had scored 30 points, before Cronin called off the dogs and put in the subs.
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Oregon is finally healthy.  Oregon hasn't had a very stable rotation. Rotation players have missed 47 games. 10 different players have started a game. Their current starters have missed 36 games.

This is not the Oregon team we faced back in December.

Line: UCLA -2.5 (2.5 point favorites win 57% of the time.)

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 66% of the time


Oregon isn't quite the best team in the country with double-digit losses.  KenPom ranks 11-13 Ohio State as the #39 team in the country.  When did winning stop mattering?

OREGONS RECORD


Oregon has more Quad 1 wins than we do.  They also have more Quad 2 and Quad 3 losses than we do.  

Their best wins are home wins over Arizona and Nevada.  (Yes, Steve Alford's team is very good and will be in the tournament.)  Their next best wins are at Utah and Arizona State.

You might be very impressed by their win over USC.  The NET isn't.  It only ranks as a Quad 2 win and is their 6th best win.  

Their worst losses are to UC Irvine and Utah Valley early in the season, but they also lost to Arizona State and Stanford in January.  

Although Oregon has been a bit inconsistent, they have won 4 of their last 6.  They have won their last 4 home games.

 
Oregon has the 46^th best home court advantage in the country.

This will be a Quad 1 game for goth teams.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE

Oregon has a good defense.  To understand their defense, you need to know that Oregon is really tall.  They have the 4th tallest roster in the country.

But more than that, they play tall.  They will almost always have two 7-footers on the floor at the same time.  (Yes, Dante is only 6'11", but don't get picky.)   That means they have two really good shot blockers on the floor all the time.  There is a good reason they are Top 10 nationally in blocks.  Dante and Ware are two of the 10 best shot blockers in the Pac-12.


However, UCLA is one of the best teams in the country at NOT gettting our shots blocked.  Will they block a lot of our shots?  This could be a deciding factor on this end of the floor.

Another factor is that UCLA is an outstanding offensive rebounding team.  For all that size, Oregon is only pretty good on their defensive boards.  We should have the advantage here.    

Also, Oregon is not very good at forcing turnovers, and we don't turn it over much.  Will Richardon is one of they best in the league at getting steals, but as a team they are not that great.  They are more likely to pack the lane, rather than pressure the ball.

There is one thing to worry about.  Oregon is one of those teams that is very good at two-point defense.  We have had some of our worst offensive performances against teams who defend well inside the arc.  USC held us to 35% and 36% shooting and 64 and 60 points.  Arizona held us to 31% and 52 points.

We will need to make some threes to be successful on this end of the floor.  If we do that and avoid getting our shots blocked, we should do fine.

Advantage:  UCLA, modest.

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE

Oregon has the 3^rd most efficient offense we have played, after Arizona and Kentucky.  We held Arizona to 58 points and Kentucky to 53.


Oregon is a poor 3-point shooting team and we defend the 3 very well.  They are outstanding inside the arc, and our two-point defense is only good.  If I were coaching the Ducks, I would tell them to only shoot 2-point shots.  Fortunately for them, I am not the coach of the Ducks.

As you might expect, with their size they are a very good offensive rebounding team.  We aren't great on our defensive boards.

Fortunately for us, they turn the ball over a lot.  We should be able to take advantage of that.

Advantage:  Even or small edge for UCLA.

OTHER FACTORS


Lots of experts think rebound margin is a meaningless stat.  It may be meaningless, but we have a better rebound margin.

Stats 101: Why You Should Ditch Rebounding Margin

We handle the ball better, and we get more extra scoring chances.

Advantage:  UCLA

PLAYERS

Oregon lost one starter from last season's team, De'Vion Harmon who transferred to Texas Tech.  They will play 5 seniors and two juniors in their 10-man rotation.  This is a veteran team, which makes some of their losses a little harder to understand, unless you take all the injuries into account.

If you have been paying attention, you may have noticed that they turn the ball over quite a bit and don't have a great team A/TO ratio.  Their front line is very good, but except for Will Richardson, their guard play hasn't been great. However, with the return of Couisnard and Barthelemy from injury it has improved, a bit.

Part of the problem is they don't have a great PG.  They have a bunch of pretty good point guards playing the position by committee.


* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

Let's stalk about shooting percentages.  When I wrote that they should only shoot two-point shots, I probably should have added that Dante should take most of them and that Bittle and Ware should take the rest.  All the guys under 6'11" aren't great shooters. 

But the "short" guys as a group seem to like to shoot threes.  They have no great 3-point shooters.  Couisnard at 36% is their best.  Canka, Singleton, and Bailey all shoot quite a bit better than that. But most them insist on taking 45% to 57% from beyond the arc.  

At times Will Richardon looks like an All-American.  He leads the team in points, assists, and steals.  However, he is only shooting 44% / 34%, and he leads the team in turnovers.  He's a really good player, but he never quite seems to live up to his potential.  He isn't really a true PG, but he is often forced to play that position.

N'Faly Dante finally seems to be healthy and living up to his lofty recruiting ranking.  In the Pac-12, he only trails Ballo in FG% and is 3^rd in rebounds per 40 minutes.  He is big and strong, skilled around the basket, and Bona will have a hard time not fouling out, trying to defend Dante.

Nate Bittle has gone from bench warmer to starter.  Although he is tall, he is not anywhere as physical as Dante.  He tends to play more around the 3-point line on offense.  He is a good rebounder and shot-blocker.  Almost half his shots are threes, and we should be happy to see him take them.

Kel'el Ware in not Superman (who is Kal-El), even if based on his recruiting ranking you might expect him to be.  He is super athletic for his size.  He is the best shot-blocker on a team of good shot blockers.  His offensive game is still developing, even if he makes some plays that are worth of Sports Center Top 10.  Like Bittle, he shoots too many threes.

Both Bittle and Ware are not very physical.   It might behoove us to play physcial against them.

The four primary wings are Couisnard, Guerrier,  Barthelemy, and Soares.  They are all decent players, but none of them strike me as special.  Soares is the best rebounder of the bunch and the worst shooter.  

Lok Wor, what is he good for?  Absolutely nothing.
 
CONCLUSION

Oregon is pretty squarely on the tournament bubble.  Their win over SC was helpful, but it was still only a Quad 2 win.  Saturday's game is a huge opportunity for them.  They should be heavily motivated to win this game.  

The arena was only about half full for the SC game.  I would expect it to be a lot closer to sold out and rocking.  They don't like us in Eugene.  The feeling is mutual.

At home, we would be solid favorite.  On the road, we are just moderate favorites.

We are the better team, but they are very good and playing very well right now.  I think that winning will depend on two things:  1)  Making outside shots.  2)  Keeping Bona out of foul trouble.  

Getting some turnovers and easy baskets wouldn't hurt. 

I see this game as a 9 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)

Go Bruins!