Post by mhbruin on Feb 6, 2023 11:08:17 GMT -8
Let me start by saying that I have watched very little Oregon State basketball this season. Why would anyone want to?
However, I can provide this deep analysis: Oregon State is a bad f'ing team.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -15.5
Line: UCLA -14.5 (14.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 77-59.
KemPom: UCLA wins 91% of the time, 77-55.
KenPom ranks the Beavers below Detroit Mercy, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Tarleton State, and Northwestern State. (I'll bet you don't know where Northwestern State is located. I didn't.)
WSU'S RECORD
Oregon State's best win is over Colorado in Corvallis. Their two Quad 4 losses are both to Portland State, once at home and once on a neutral site.
Most of OSU's Quad 1 games haven't been close, but they managed to lose by 3 to Duke around Thanksgiving.
Like most teams, OSU plays better at home. Or perhaps I should say, less badly. They only lost to Arizona by 14 at home, instead of losing by 32 in Tucson.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OSU'S DEFENSE
Oregon State's defense isn't terrible. It isn't good. It's mediocre. It's not bad at most things, and it's not good at anything.
Oregon State will play different defenses. They play quite a bit of zone, but will play some man. They also will press occasionally.
Although they aren't bad at most things, there are a couple of things they are bad at. One is defensive rebounding. We are one of the best teams in the nation at offensive rebounding. Second-chance points, anyone?
Both team play slowly They play REALLY slowly. This may help them against teams who like to play fast, but we should be fine with the tempo. Expect a low-scoring, low possession game.
We have stuggled on offense against some elite defenses. Oregon State doesn't have an elite defense. I don't expect us to struggle.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OSU'S OFFENSE
Oregon State's defense may be decent, but their offense isn't. The only Power 6 teams with a worse offense are Minnesota, California, and Louisville. All three are in last place in their conferences, with a combined conference record of 4-33.
When the KenPom #266 offense meets the #3 defense, you would expect it to be ugly. It will be.
See all that red in the chart above. Those are things that Oregon State is REALLY BAD at. Howeever, the rest of the items aren't things they are good at. They aren't good at anything. The non-red things are just things they aren't terrible at.
So what are they terrible at?
When your two-point shooting is terrible, and your three-point shooting is fair, you might expect them to shoot a lot of threes. Strangely, they don't. They are just average on three-point frequency for all of Divison 1.
Perhaps the worst part of this matchup for the Beavers is that they turn the ball over a lot, and we are elite at creating turnovers. Combine this with their giving up offensive rebounds, and we should get quite a few more shots than they do.
Advantage: UCLA, BIG, BIG, BIG
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon State isn't very good on the boards. Or should I say they are pretty bad on the boards. We are pretty good.
They also aren't very good at handling the ball. They only have one player with an A/TO ratio over 0.9, and that is Jordan Pope at 1.9. We have three players better than that.
Since they aren't very good on the offensive boards and they turn the ball over a lot, they don't get a lot of extra scoring chances.
We shoot a higher percentage (46.4% to 42.2%), and we should get a lot more scoring chances, so we should score a lot more points. That bodes well for our chances of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The five leading scorers from last season are gone. The top 4 at rebounds and steals are gone. So are the top 3 at assists and blocks.
The top 5 in minutes played have left. So if you find yourself unfamiliar with the Beaver players, you can be forgiven.
They are also young. In their last game, they started three freshmen, a sophomore, and a senior.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Since Coach Tinkle got rid of his entire starting lineup from last season, you might expect he had a bunch of great players coming in to replace them. You would be disappointed. Based on star ratings, this is a REALLY untalented roster. Based on results on the court, this is a REALLY untalented roster.
One issue seems to be that players are taking the wrong shots. Rataj seems to be their best outside shooter, but he is 6th on the team in 3-point attempts. Dexter Akanno, who is a poor shooter is second in 3-point shots. The only one that really makes sense is Ryuny, who is a good shooter and 3rd on the team in attempts. But Taylor and Pope take three times as mnay outside shots as Ryuny, who shoots them much better.
Jordan Pope is their best player. He leads them in scoring, and he has been Pac-12 freshman of the Week three times. That is in large part because he scores a lot. He doesn't shoot a high percentage. He shoots a lot. He is definitely more dangerous shooting threes than inside the arc, and around half his shots are threes.
Pope is the only one on the team with a decent A/TO ratio. That's because he doesn't turn over the ball a ton, not because he has a lot of assists. He is #18 in the Pac-12 in assists per game. Pope is a talented freshman, but he is being asked to do a awful lot for a freshman.
Glenn Taylor Jr. is probably the best of the returning players. He is tied with Pope in assists and is their second-leading scorer. He is also not a great shooter, but he is most dangerous when driving to the hoop. It will be important to keep him out of the lane.
Michael Rataj seems to be their best three-point shooter, but he doesn't shoot a lot of them. He's never tried more than 4 of them in a game.
Tyler Bilodeau hasn't shot the ball that well, but he is a decent rebounder.
Rodrigue Andela is the veteran of the group. This is his third season in Corvallis. At 6-8, he is often asked to play center. He is strong, he plays hard, and he has some skills around the basket. He is very good on the boards.
Dzmitry Ryuny was unranked coming out of high school, but according to 247, he had offers from Alabama and Texas Tech. He seems to be pretty good. He leads the team in rebounds, steals, and blocks, while only playing 20 minutes per game.
KC Ibekwe is the only true center on the roster. He is athletic and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. He's been playing more minutes lately.
CONCLUSION
It's hard to see any reason to think Oregon State could win this game or even hang close, even if the Bruins are on the road. Their defense is fair, their offense is terrible, they don't rebound particularly well. They don't do anything particularly well.
They are in the Top 100 in the country in one thing: Getting to the free throw line. But UCLA is very good at defending without fouling.
I don't expect this game to be close.
The only way UCLA loses this game is if the players read this preview and decide they can win this game by going through the motions. I don't expect that.
Go Bruins!
FWIW, Northwestern State (NSU) is a public university in Natchitoches, Louisiana.
Individuals Rodrigue Tha Andela is Not Related To
Dennis the Menace
Ming the Merciless
Stan the Man
Smokie the Bear
Meaghan Thee Stallion
Ivan the Terrible
Howard the Duck
Peter the Great
William the Conqueror
Thomas the Tank Engine
The Edge
Winnie the Pooh
Carlos the Jackal
Attilla the Hun
However, I can provide this deep analysis: Oregon State is a bad f'ing team.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -14.5 (14.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 95% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 94% of the time.68-54.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 77-59.
KemPom: UCLA wins 91% of the time, 77-55.
| OSU | UCLA | |
| NET | 218 | 5 |
| KenPom Rank | 204 | 3 |
| Sagarin Ran | 163 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 222 | 3 |
| SOS | 46 | 33 |
| Record | 9-15 | 19-4 |
KenPom ranks the Beavers below Detroit Mercy, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Tarleton State, and Northwestern State. (I'll bet you don't know where Northwestern State is located. I didn't.)
WSU'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 3-4 | 7-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| OSU | 0-10 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 5-2 |
Oregon State's best win is over Colorado in Corvallis. Their two Quad 4 losses are both to Portland State, once at home and once on a neutral site.
Most of OSU's Quad 1 games haven't been close, but they managed to lose by 3 to Duke around Thanksgiving.
| UCLA Road | 5-2 |
| OSU Home | 7-4 |
Like most teams, OSU plays better at home. Or perhaps I should say, less badly. They only lost to Arizona by 14 at home, instead of losing by 32 in Tucson.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OSU'S DEFENSE
Oregon State's defense isn't terrible. It isn't good. It's mediocre. It's not bad at most things, and it's not good at anything.
Oregon State will play different defenses. They play quite a bit of zone, but will play some man. They also will press occasionally.
OSU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 127 | 23 |
| Torvick Rank | 133 | 28 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 75 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 338 of 363 | 238 |
| FG Percent | 42.1% | 46.4% |
| Effective FG Percent | 49.0% (118) | 54.7% (40) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.3% (100) | 37.0% (54) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 39.6% (254) | 25.9% (356) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.3% (143) | 54.5% (50) |
| FT Percent | 72% (176) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 30.8% (278) | 35.2% (18) |
| Assist Percent | 58.4% (328) | 51.6% (161) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.3% (180) | 15.6% (22) |
| Block Percent | 9.7% (123) | 6.2% (11) |
Although they aren't bad at most things, there are a couple of things they are bad at. One is defensive rebounding. We are one of the best teams in the nation at offensive rebounding. Second-chance points, anyone?
Both team play slowly They play REALLY slowly. This may help them against teams who like to play fast, but we should be fine with the tempo. Expect a low-scoring, low possession game.
We have stuggled on offense against some elite defenses. Oregon State doesn't have an elite defense. I don't expect us to struggle.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OSU'S OFFENSE
Oregon State's defense may be decent, but their offense isn't. The only Power 6 teams with a worse offense are Minnesota, California, and Louisville. All three are in last place in their conferences, with a combined conference record of 4-33.
UCLA Defense | OSU Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 3 | 266 |
| Torvick Rank | 3 | 291 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 68 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 42% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.6% (64) | 48.0% (293) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.4% (33) | 33.9% (183) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 40.5% (285) | 37.7% (175) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.0% (128) | 67.3% (318) |
| FT Percent | 73% (134) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.4% (173) | 23.7% (320) |
| Assist Percent | 52.9% (226) | 48.3% (247) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.8% (4) | 21.2% (322) |
| Block Percent | 12.7% (33) | 9.3% (219) |
When the KenPom #266 offense meets the #3 defense, you would expect it to be ugly. It will be.
See all that red in the chart above. Those are things that Oregon State is REALLY BAD at. Howeever, the rest of the items aren't things they are good at. They aren't good at anything. The non-red things are just things they aren't terrible at.
So what are they terrible at?
- Effective FG Percent (Effective field goal percentage is a statistic that adjusts FG% to account for the fact that 3-pt field goals count for 3 points while field goals only count for 2 points.)
- Two-point shooting
- Offensive rebounding
- They turn the ball over a lot.
When your two-point shooting is terrible, and your three-point shooting is fair, you might expect them to shoot a lot of threes. Strangely, they don't. They are just average on three-point frequency for all of Divison 1.
Perhaps the worst part of this matchup for the Beavers is that they turn the ball over a lot, and we are elite at creating turnovers. Combine this with their giving up offensive rebounds, and we should get quite a few more shots than they do.
Advantage: UCLA, BIG, BIG, BIG
OTHER FACTORS
| OSU | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | -2.6 (302) | 4.3 (59) |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| Extra Scoring Chances | -4.8 (345) | 9.6 (1) |
Oregon State isn't very good on the boards. Or should I say they are pretty bad on the boards. We are pretty good.
They also aren't very good at handling the ball. They only have one player with an A/TO ratio over 0.9, and that is Jordan Pope at 1.9. We have three players better than that.
Since they aren't very good on the offensive boards and they turn the ball over a lot, they don't get a lot of extra scoring chances.
We shoot a higher percentage (46.4% to 42.2%), and we should get a lot more scoring chances, so we should score a lot more points. That bodes well for our chances of winning.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
The five leading scorers from last season are gone. The top 4 at rebounds and steals are gone. So are the top 3 at assists and blocks.
The top 5 in minutes played have left. So if you find yourself unfamiliar with the Beaver players, you can be forgiven.
They are also young. In their last game, they started three freshmen, a sophomore, and a senior.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Jordan Pope G | Fr | 6-2 165 | 3-star 249 | 24 | 34 | 13 | 2.5 | 43% | 38% | 50% | 1.9 | ||
| Glenn Taylor Jr. F | So | 6-6 200 | 3-star 189 | 24 | 31 | 11 | 2.5 | 43% | 35% | 26% | 0.9 | ||
| Dexter Akanno G | Jr | 6-5 210 | 3-star 400 | 24 | 28 | 9 | 1.8 | 37% | 26% | 53% | 0.8 | ||
| Michael Rataj F | Fr | 6-9 220 | Unranked | 24 | 20 | 7 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 48% | 48% | 25% | 0.7 | |
| Tyler Bilodeau F | Fr | 6-9 220 | 3-star 206 | 24 | 19 | 6 | 7.8 | 0.7 | 44% | 31% | 0.7 | ||
| Rodrigue Tha Andela F | Sr | 6-8 250 | Unranked | 23 | 15 | 5 | 10.0 | 1.3 | 55% | 0.4 | |||
| Dzmitry Ryuny F | Sr | 6-9 220 | Unranked | 24 | 20 | 5 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 45% | 41% | 57% | 0.8 |
| KC Ibekwe C | Fr | 6-10 225 | Unranked | 13 | 9 | 3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 52% | 0.3 | |||
| Nick Krass G | Fr | 6-4 190 | Unranked | 21 | 9 | 2 | 28% | 30% | 0.3 | ||||
| . |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Since Coach Tinkle got rid of his entire starting lineup from last season, you might expect he had a bunch of great players coming in to replace them. You would be disappointed. Based on star ratings, this is a REALLY untalented roster. Based on results on the court, this is a REALLY untalented roster.
One issue seems to be that players are taking the wrong shots. Rataj seems to be their best outside shooter, but he is 6th on the team in 3-point attempts. Dexter Akanno, who is a poor shooter is second in 3-point shots. The only one that really makes sense is Ryuny, who is a good shooter and 3rd on the team in attempts. But Taylor and Pope take three times as mnay outside shots as Ryuny, who shoots them much better.
Jordan Pope is their best player. He leads them in scoring, and he has been Pac-12 freshman of the Week three times. That is in large part because he scores a lot. He doesn't shoot a high percentage. He shoots a lot. He is definitely more dangerous shooting threes than inside the arc, and around half his shots are threes.
Pope is the only one on the team with a decent A/TO ratio. That's because he doesn't turn over the ball a ton, not because he has a lot of assists. He is #18 in the Pac-12 in assists per game. Pope is a talented freshman, but he is being asked to do a awful lot for a freshman.
Glenn Taylor Jr. is probably the best of the returning players. He is tied with Pope in assists and is their second-leading scorer. He is also not a great shooter, but he is most dangerous when driving to the hoop. It will be important to keep him out of the lane.
Michael Rataj seems to be their best three-point shooter, but he doesn't shoot a lot of them. He's never tried more than 4 of them in a game.
Tyler Bilodeau hasn't shot the ball that well, but he is a decent rebounder.
Rodrigue Andela is the veteran of the group. This is his third season in Corvallis. At 6-8, he is often asked to play center. He is strong, he plays hard, and he has some skills around the basket. He is very good on the boards.
Dzmitry Ryuny was unranked coming out of high school, but according to 247, he had offers from Alabama and Texas Tech. He seems to be pretty good. He leads the team in rebounds, steals, and blocks, while only playing 20 minutes per game.
KC Ibekwe is the only true center on the roster. He is athletic and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. He's been playing more minutes lately.
CONCLUSION
It's hard to see any reason to think Oregon State could win this game or even hang close, even if the Bruins are on the road. Their defense is fair, their offense is terrible, they don't rebound particularly well. They don't do anything particularly well.
They are in the Top 100 in the country in one thing: Getting to the free throw line. But UCLA is very good at defending without fouling.
I don't expect this game to be close.
The only way UCLA loses this game is if the players read this preview and decide they can win this game by going through the motions. I don't expect that.
Go Bruins!
FWIW, Northwestern State (NSU) is a public university in Natchitoches, Louisiana.
Individuals Rodrigue Tha Andela is Not Related To
Dennis the Menace
Ming the Merciless
Stan the Man
Smokie the Bear
Meaghan Thee Stallion
Ivan the Terrible
Howard the Duck
Peter the Great
William the Conqueror
Thomas the Tank Engine
The Edge
Winnie the Pooh
Carlos the Jackal
Attilla the Hun