Post by mhbruin on Feb 2, 2023 13:51:05 GMT -8
Coach 'Kyle Smith lost 4 starters from last year's team to graduation, the draft and transfers. He returned one full-time and one part-time starter, and brought in an undistinguished group of transfers and recruits.
Yet somehow, he managed to put together a dangerous team, particularly at home. Ask Arizona, USC, Arizona State, and Baylor.
Heck! Just ask the Bruins, who eked out a 1-point win in Pullman, after trailing for most of the game.
This game will in part depend on who will play, but we will get to that later when the discuss the players.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -12.0
Line: UCLA -11.5 (11.5 point favorites win 95% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 92% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-60.
KemPom: UCLA wins 86% of the time, 71-59.
The computers all predict UCLA is more likely to beat WSU than they were to beat Washington. Vegas doesn't agree.
This computers see UCLA as a solid favorite. However, they give the Cougars around a 20% chance to win this game. That is significant. We need to take the Cougars seriously.
The Cougars have played a pretty tough schedule
WSU'S RECORD
Washington State's Quad 1 win is one of their two road wins. They beat Arizona in Tucson by 13. Their only other road win is over Eastern Washington (pronounced E-Woo).
WSU also has wins over USC and Arizona State, two teams that are likely to make the NCAA tournament.
Their Quad 4 loss is to Prarie View A&M, who are 8-14, and #281 in KenPom. The Cougars seem to be able to beat just about anyone and lose to just about anyone.
We own the longest home win streak in the nation.
This MAY be a Quad 2 game for us. If we beat the Cougars, it may drop their NET ranking to make it a Quad 3 game.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WSU'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays pressure defense on the ball. However, they are vulnerable to strong drives to the basket and backdoor plays.
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Both team play SLOOWW. Expect a low-scoring, low possession game.
UCLA's offense hasn't been very good lately. We shot a pretty good 49% against the Huskies, but we had season-high 18 turnovers. The Cougs have an average Power 5 defense, and we match up pretty well with it. That's not to say to expect an offensive explosion, but we should shoot better than the 36% we shot up in Pullman.
Washington State's defense is good at defending the three-point shot, and most teams don't shoot a lot of them against the Cougars. That should not be a problem for us, since most of our shots are two-point shots. We shoot them well, and they are not that good at defending inside the arc.
The Cougars are good on their defensive board. We are even better on our offensive board.
There are two areas where we are pretty even, but neither of them really helps the Cougs. They don't create a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get our shots blocked much.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WSU'S OFFENSE
Coach Smith is a big believer in analytics. He wants his team to shoot 3's and layups. His team is good at shooting 3's.
When Gueye is on the floor, they will mostly run a 1-in, 4-out offense. He will alternate between spending time at the top of the key setting screens and rolling to the hoop.
When he is on the bench they will often run 5-out.
If our offense has gotten worse, our defense has gotten better. WSU's offense hasn't improved since our first game, when we held them to 43% shooting. Overall, our defense matches up well with their offense.
As you might expect, a team that plays very slowly and isn't highly efficient on offense doesn't score a lot of points. The only teams that score less are Oregon State and Cal, who happen to be the two worst teams in the Pac-12.
The Cougars are good at two things, three-point shooting and offensive rebounds. They shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. They lead the Pac-12 in three-point atttempts, and are second to Arizona in three-point accuracy by 0.1%. Fortunately, we are one of the best teams in the country at defending the three.
The Cougars are very good on the offensive boards. Part of this is that they shoot a lot of 3's, and this leads to a lot of long rebounds, but they are also long and good leapers. We aren't that great on our defensive boards. We REALLY need to put a body on their long-armed leapers. We gave up 12 offensive boards in Pullman.
WSU is not as good inside the arc, except, of course for Gueye.
What is WSU bad at on the offensive end? 1) Turning the ball over. They turn it over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. 2) They get a lot of shots blocked. We are pretty good at blocking them.
WSU has a low percentage of assisted baskets. They will shoot a lot off of one-on-one play.
If we rebound well, we should do well on this end of the floor.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Washington St doesn't have a true point guard, so their A/TO ratio isn't great.
We shoot a higher percentage (46.4% to 42.3%) and we should get more scoring chances, so we should score more points. You know what that means.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
WSU will go 9 or 10 deep, but we don't know about their depth for our game. Against USC, they only had 7 scholarship players and essentially went 7 deep. The announcers thought they looked tired at the end of the game. If they have to play a second game in 44 hours with only 7 players, that would be a problem.
The three missing players were DJ Rodman, Dylan Darling, and Adrame Diongue. They were out with an illness.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Coach Smith seems to like taller, thin guys. Other than Darling, everyone in the rotation is long, thin, quick, and a good leaper.
Mouhamed Gueye should make the All-Pac-12 team. He is second in the league in double-doubles. He has had 5 twenty-point games and a 31-point game. He is quick, athletic, and has a nice array of shots. He can make the three, but he isn't great at it. We should be much happier to see him shoot from outside. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks.
Gueye is an excellent rebounder, and will hit the offensive boards aggressively, using his leaping ability more than muscle. He is #3 in the league in rebounding and leads the league in offensive rebounds. He doesn't seem to like to bang. We should body him up.
TJ (Don't call him "La") Bamba is their best all around offensive player and leading scorer. He has a complete offensive game. He will shoot 3's, post up, and drive straight to the rim. He doesn't do anything flashy, so you may be surprised to look up and realize he has scored a lot. He is #10 in the Pac-12 in scoring. (BTW, Bamba's other offers were Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, and McNeese State. Sometimes players surprise the experts.)
Jabe Mullins played for two seasons for St. Mary's before transferring to WSU, where he found a lot more PT and success in shooting. He is an outstanding 3-point shooter, hitting 44% from the arc. IHe is #2 in the Pac-12 in three-point percent.
Justin Powell is a better player than his recruiting ranking indicates. He played 28 minutes a game as a freshman at Auburn, averaging 11 points off the bench before running into concussion problems. Then he spent a year at Tennessee, where he only played 14 minutes, before finding a home in Pullman. He is the closest thing they have to a PG, although he is more of a shooting guard. He has an excellent A/TO ratio, but not a ton of assists or turnovers, since he doesn't act as a primary ball-handler. He is a good 3-point shooter, and most of his shots come from distance..
DJ Rodman (Dennis' son) is a good player and probably their best defender. He is the Cougars answer to Vlade Divac. He spends more time on the floor than a college wrestler. He LOVES to take charges, so we need to be aware of him when driving into the lane. Not all of them are flops. He will also fall down when shooting a three.
Rodman's shooting has really fallen off this year, although he has been a good shooter in the past. He is an excellent rebounder for his size. After all, he is the son of Dennis Rodman.
Andrej Jakimovski missed the first 11 games with injuries. He will get to the rim sometimes, but he is mostly effective as a three-point shooter. He is a solid reobunder.
Kymany Houinsou is from France. Houinsou has been starting lately in place of Jabe Mullin. He isn't a great shooter, but he plays good defense and rebounds well.
Dylan Darling is a freshman, who played in the lowest division of basketball in the state of Washington. WSU got his commitment over Idaho State and Seattle Pacific. He plays REALLY hard, and is a real pest on defense. However he is limited on offense. His only other offers were Idaho State and Seattle Pacific.
CONCLUSION
Coach Smith likes to say the Cougars are the best 10-14 team in the country. They are, and it's not even close. The other two are Illinois State at #253 in the NET and Stonehill at #309 in the NET.
They are the best 14-loss team according the the NET and KenPom. They are also the best team with a losing record. (11-11 Ohio State has better computer rankings.)
KenPom and the NET say we are the second-best 18-win team in the country (after Tennessee). These kind of statements are dumb.
Washington St is still a 14-loss team, and they still have a losing record. However, they are still dangerous.
I know they have some good wins, and have lost a bunch of close games, but ultimately we are the better team, we match up well, and we are playing at home.
Forget the game in Pullman. Forget that they won in Tucson. Forget that Gueye had 18 and 8 against us last time we met. (If they win, forget my prediction.) This may not be pretty, unless you think any Bruin win is pretty, but it should be a win.
If they have to play with only the 7 scholarship players they had against SC, this game should be easier, particularly in the second half.
Go Bruins!
Yet somehow, he managed to put together a dangerous team, particularly at home. Ask Arizona, USC, Arizona State, and Baylor.
Heck! Just ask the Bruins, who eked out a 1-point win in Pullman, after trailing for most of the game.
This game will in part depend on who will play, but we will get to that later when the discuss the players.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -11.5 (11.5 point favorites win 95% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 92% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 88% of the time.69-58.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-60.
KemPom: UCLA wins 86% of the time, 71-59.
The computers all predict UCLA is more likely to beat WSU than they were to beat Washington. Vegas doesn't agree.
| WSU | UCLA | |
| NET | 73 | 5 |
| KenPom Rank | 59 | 5 |
| Sagarin Ran | 69 | 6 |
| Torvick Rank | 55 | 5 |
| SOS | 11 | 28 |
| Record | 10-14 | 18-4 |
This computers see UCLA as a solid favorite. However, they give the Cougars around a 20% chance to win this game. That is significant. We need to take the Cougars seriously.
The Cougars have played a pretty tough schedule
WSU'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 4-4 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 5-0 |
| WSU | 1-9 | 3-4 | 2-0 | 4-1 |
Washington State's Quad 1 win is one of their two road wins. They beat Arizona in Tucson by 13. Their only other road win is over Eastern Washington (pronounced E-Woo).
WSU also has wins over USC and Arizona State, two teams that are likely to make the NCAA tournament.
Their Quad 4 loss is to Prarie View A&M, who are 8-14, and #281 in KenPom. The Cougars seem to be able to beat just about anyone and lose to just about anyone.
| UCLA Home | 12-0 |
| WSU Road | 2-7 |
We own the longest home win streak in the nation.
This MAY be a Quad 2 game for us. If we beat the Cougars, it may drop their NET ranking to make it a Quad 3 game.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WSU'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays pressure defense on the ball. However, they are vulnerable to strong drives to the basket and backdoor plays.
WSU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 52 | 26 |
| Torvick Rank | 60 | 29 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 75 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 325 of 363 | 238 |
| FG Percent | 44.5% | 46.4% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.8% (155) | 54.7% (40) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.7% (76) | 37,0% (54) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 31.4% (27) | 25.9% (356) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50.8% (210) | 54.5% (50) |
| FT Percent | 72% (176) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 25.7% (64) | 35.2% (19) |
| Assist Percent | 47.9% (99) | 51.6% (161) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 16.8% (282) | 15.6% (22) |
| Block Percent | 7.5% (244) | 6.2% (11) |
Both team play SLOOWW. Expect a low-scoring, low possession game.
UCLA's offense hasn't been very good lately. We shot a pretty good 49% against the Huskies, but we had season-high 18 turnovers. The Cougs have an average Power 5 defense, and we match up pretty well with it. That's not to say to expect an offensive explosion, but we should shoot better than the 36% we shot up in Pullman.
Washington State's defense is good at defending the three-point shot, and most teams don't shoot a lot of them against the Cougars. That should not be a problem for us, since most of our shots are two-point shots. We shoot them well, and they are not that good at defending inside the arc.
The Cougars are good on their defensive board. We are even better on our offensive board.
There are two areas where we are pretty even, but neither of them really helps the Cougs. They don't create a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get our shots blocked much.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WSU'S OFFENSE
Coach Smith is a big believer in analytics. He wants his team to shoot 3's and layups. His team is good at shooting 3's.
When Gueye is on the floor, they will mostly run a 1-in, 4-out offense. He will alternate between spending time at the top of the key setting screens and rolling to the hoop.
When he is on the bench they will often run 5-out.
UCLA Defense | WSU Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 3 | 70 |
| Torvick Rank | 4 | 57 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 68 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 42% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.6% (64) | 50.1% (196) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.4% (33) | 36.0% (71) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 40.5% (285) | 42.4% (61) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.0% (128) | 47.3% (291) |
| FT Percent | 72% (177) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.4% (173) | 32.4% (68) |
| Assist Percent | 52.9% (226) | 48.5% (239) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (6) | 19.5% (256) |
| Block Percent | 12.7% (33) | 8.5% (156) |
If our offense has gotten worse, our defense has gotten better. WSU's offense hasn't improved since our first game, when we held them to 43% shooting. Overall, our defense matches up well with their offense.
As you might expect, a team that plays very slowly and isn't highly efficient on offense doesn't score a lot of points. The only teams that score less are Oregon State and Cal, who happen to be the two worst teams in the Pac-12.
The Cougars are good at two things, three-point shooting and offensive rebounds. They shoot a high percentage from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. They lead the Pac-12 in three-point atttempts, and are second to Arizona in three-point accuracy by 0.1%. Fortunately, we are one of the best teams in the country at defending the three.
The Cougars are very good on the offensive boards. Part of this is that they shoot a lot of 3's, and this leads to a lot of long rebounds, but they are also long and good leapers. We aren't that great on our defensive boards. We REALLY need to put a body on their long-armed leapers. We gave up 12 offensive boards in Pullman.
WSU is not as good inside the arc, except, of course for Gueye.
What is WSU bad at on the offensive end? 1) Turning the ball over. They turn it over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. 2) They get a lot of shots blocked. We are pretty good at blocking them.
WSU has a low percentage of assisted baskets. They will shoot a lot off of one-on-one play.
If we rebound well, we should do well on this end of the floor.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
| WSU | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| Extra Scoring Chances | 0.5 (155) | 9.7 (1) |
Washington St doesn't have a true point guard, so their A/TO ratio isn't great.
We shoot a higher percentage (46.4% to 42.3%) and we should get more scoring chances, so we should score more points. You know what that means.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
WSU will go 9 or 10 deep, but we don't know about their depth for our game. Against USC, they only had 7 scholarship players and essentially went 7 deep. The announcers thought they looked tired at the end of the game. If they have to play a second game in 44 hours with only 7 players, that would be a problem.
The three missing players were DJ Rodman, Dylan Darling, and Adrame Diongue. They were out with an illness.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| TJ Bamba G | Jr | 6'5" 215 | Unranked | 21 | 31 | 14 | 2 | 41% | 33% | 0.8 | |||
| Mouhamed Gueye F | So | 6' 11" 210 | 4-star 106 | 24 | 32 | 14 | 10.3 | 2 | 1.2 | 47% | 19% | 0.7 | |
| Justin Powell G | Jr | 6'6" 197 | 3-star 188 | 24 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 42% | 41% | 60% | 2.7 | ||
| Jabe Mullins G | Jr | 6' 6" 192 | Unranked | 20 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 45% | 44% | 65% | 1.3 | ||
| DJ Rodman F | Sr | 6'6" 215 | 1-star 511 | 22 | 30 | 9 | 7.2 | 1 | 42% | 39% | 1.3 | ||
| Andrej Jakimovski F | Jr | 6'7" 180 | Unranked | 12 | 23 | 1 | 6.5 | 1 | 40% | 37% | 62% | 0.8 | |
| Kymany Houinsou G | Fr | 6'6" 195 | Unranked | 24 | 20 | 5 | 6.0 | 2 | 42% | 22% | 0.5 | ||
| Carlos Rosario F | Jr | 6'7" 190 | Unranked | 18 | 10 | 3 | 6.3 | 0 | 44% | 29% | 0.5 | ||
| Dylan Darling G | Fr | 6'2" 175 | Unranked | 18 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 26% | 18% | 3 | 0.6 | ||
| Adrame Diongue C | Fr | 7'0" 190 | 4-star 117 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 12.2 | 0 | 3.1 | 53% |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Coach Smith seems to like taller, thin guys. Other than Darling, everyone in the rotation is long, thin, quick, and a good leaper.
Mouhamed Gueye should make the All-Pac-12 team. He is second in the league in double-doubles. He has had 5 twenty-point games and a 31-point game. He is quick, athletic, and has a nice array of shots. He can make the three, but he isn't great at it. We should be much happier to see him shoot from outside. He leads the team in rebounds and blocks.
Gueye is an excellent rebounder, and will hit the offensive boards aggressively, using his leaping ability more than muscle. He is #3 in the league in rebounding and leads the league in offensive rebounds. He doesn't seem to like to bang. We should body him up.
TJ (Don't call him "La") Bamba is their best all around offensive player and leading scorer. He has a complete offensive game. He will shoot 3's, post up, and drive straight to the rim. He doesn't do anything flashy, so you may be surprised to look up and realize he has scored a lot. He is #10 in the Pac-12 in scoring. (BTW, Bamba's other offers were Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, and McNeese State. Sometimes players surprise the experts.)
Jabe Mullins played for two seasons for St. Mary's before transferring to WSU, where he found a lot more PT and success in shooting. He is an outstanding 3-point shooter, hitting 44% from the arc. IHe is #2 in the Pac-12 in three-point percent.
Justin Powell is a better player than his recruiting ranking indicates. He played 28 minutes a game as a freshman at Auburn, averaging 11 points off the bench before running into concussion problems. Then he spent a year at Tennessee, where he only played 14 minutes, before finding a home in Pullman. He is the closest thing they have to a PG, although he is more of a shooting guard. He has an excellent A/TO ratio, but not a ton of assists or turnovers, since he doesn't act as a primary ball-handler. He is a good 3-point shooter, and most of his shots come from distance..
DJ Rodman (Dennis' son) is a good player and probably their best defender. He is the Cougars answer to Vlade Divac. He spends more time on the floor than a college wrestler. He LOVES to take charges, so we need to be aware of him when driving into the lane. Not all of them are flops. He will also fall down when shooting a three.
Rodman's shooting has really fallen off this year, although he has been a good shooter in the past. He is an excellent rebounder for his size. After all, he is the son of Dennis Rodman.
Andrej Jakimovski missed the first 11 games with injuries. He will get to the rim sometimes, but he is mostly effective as a three-point shooter. He is a solid reobunder.
Kymany Houinsou is from France. Houinsou has been starting lately in place of Jabe Mullin. He isn't a great shooter, but he plays good defense and rebounds well.
Dylan Darling is a freshman, who played in the lowest division of basketball in the state of Washington. WSU got his commitment over Idaho State and Seattle Pacific. He plays REALLY hard, and is a real pest on defense. However he is limited on offense. His only other offers were Idaho State and Seattle Pacific.
CONCLUSION
Coach Smith likes to say the Cougars are the best 10-14 team in the country. They are, and it's not even close. The other two are Illinois State at #253 in the NET and Stonehill at #309 in the NET.
They are the best 14-loss team according the the NET and KenPom. They are also the best team with a losing record. (11-11 Ohio State has better computer rankings.)
KenPom and the NET say we are the second-best 18-win team in the country (after Tennessee). These kind of statements are dumb.
Washington St is still a 14-loss team, and they still have a losing record. However, they are still dangerous.
I know they have some good wins, and have lost a bunch of close games, but ultimately we are the better team, we match up well, and we are playing at home.
Forget the game in Pullman. Forget that they won in Tucson. Forget that Gueye had 18 and 8 against us last time we met. (If they win, forget my prediction.) This may not be pretty, unless you think any Bruin win is pretty, but it should be a win.
If they have to play with only the 7 scholarship players they had against SC, this game should be easier, particularly in the second half.
Go Bruins!
