UCLA at USC Preview

If you believe KenPom, we are about to play the toughest regular season game remaining on our schedule.  (It is slightly tougher than road games at Oregon and Colorado.)

At #62 in the NET and #49 in KenPom, the Trojans can't feel very comfortable about an NCAA bid.  Palm has them as a #11 seed.  Lunardi lists them as First Four Out. 

They need a win over Arizona or UCLA if they are going to get much sleep the night before Selection Sunday.

They hate us.  They need this win badly.  We already beat them once.  I think they will be highly motivated.  Then there's the Iwuchukwu factor.

We should be too.  This is a BIG game.

Here's a bonus.  If we win, we make it that much harder for SC to make the tournament.  It might be the nail in their coffin.

METRICS

Estimated Line:  UCLA -5.0

Line: UCLA -4.5 (4.5 point favorites win 64% of the time.)

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 78% of the time


The computers think we are the better team.  We have a better record against a slightly tougher schedule.

USC'S RECORD 


SC's best wins are at home over Auburn and at Arizona State.  Their Quad 1 losses are to Tennessee, UCLA, Arizona, and Washington State.  

Their losses are to Wisconsin, Washington State and FGCU.  Florida Gulf Coast is 13-7, with losses to the likes of Bellarmine and Austin Peay.  However, that loss was in November, so I don't know if we should read too much into it.

Auburn is #15 in KenPom, so SC can beat anyone and lose to anyone.  

 
Their home loss was to FGCU in November.

I,am not sure if this will be a true road game, since there isn't much travel involved, and there is usually a pretty good UCLA contingent in Galen.

This will be a Quad 1 game for both of us.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE

At the time we played Kentucky (Dec 14), we were #3 in offensive efficiency and #145 in temp. We are now #22 in offensive efficiency and #234 in tempo. Are those two facts related? Are we less efficient because we are playing slower? Or are we playing slower, and we are less efficient because we are facing better defenses?

I suspect it is a bit of each, but it does seem like we are not pushing the ball up the floor, and we seem to end up in too many late-clock situations. It also seems like we pass up quite a few shots early in the shot clock and we end up with a worse shot later in the clock. I would like to see us get back to being aggressive on offense.



USC is a good defensive team, but they are elite in two related things.  They defend the two-point shot EXTREMELY well, and this is in large part because they are the 13^th best shot blocking teams in the nation.   Joshua Morgan is #8 in the nation blocked shots.  They are the 6^th tallest team in the US, and they can pack the lane with a bunch of tall guys with long arms.  We only shot 32% inside the arc in the first game, which is worse than the 35% beyond the arc.

We don't usually get our shots blocked, so this will be strength against strength.  They got 5 blocks against us, which is less than their average of 7.6 blocks per game.

USC challenges teams to beat them with the outside shots, and they don't defend the three all that well.  On the season, we have shot the three very well, but we haven't been that good in recent games.  We have only shot 31% in our last 5 games.   

Other than when they are pressing full court, they don't pressure the ball that much, so they are not very good at generating turnovers.  It may not matter too much, since we don't turn the ball over that much.  

For all their size, they give up a lot of offensive rebounds, and we are good on the offensive boards.  We got 16 in the first game.  We should be able to exploit this.

Advantage:  Even.  Their two-point defense against our two-point offense isn't a great matchup for us, but we still do well on the offensive boards, don't turn the ball over, and shoot the three well.

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC'S OFFENSE


Our defense is better than the last time we faced them.  It needs to be.  Last time we let them shoot 47%, which is too high, even if we held them to 19% from the arc.  We also only generated 10 turnovers.


There really isn't anything SC does particularly well on offense, and they are pretty bad at somethings.  Frankly, it is hard to see how their offensive efficiency is as good as #64.

SC is not a good 3-point shooting team.  They seem to realize this, and they take very few of them.  In our las,t meeting, 30% of their shots were threes, which is right on their season average. 

They need to make their points inside the arc, but they aren't that great at that either.  

We are better at defending the three than the two, so this is their relative strength against the weaker part of our defense.  

However, they turn the ball over a lot, even if they didn't do that at Pauley.  Of course, we generate a lot of turnovers.  That should be the difference on this end of the floor.

We are very good at blocking more shots.  Their best offensive stat is not getting shots blocked, but even that isn't anything special.

Overall, we are an elite defense, and they are just a pretty good offense.  If we keep our focus for 40 minutes we should be able to hold them in check.

Advantage:  UCLA.

OTHER FACTORS


We are better on the boards.  We handle the ball better.  

USC has no rotation with an A/TO ratio above 1.5, while we have three of them, all of whom are over 2.0.  Two players are over 3.0, while Tyger is at 2.5.  That's not counting Will McClendon who has 10 assists and 1 turnover in 117 minutes.

Advantage:  UCLA

PLAYERS

There is one lineup change for the Trojans since our first game, and it is a big one, but literally and figuratively. 5-star center Vincent Iwuchukwu is in the lineup. Against ASU, he had 12 points, 5 rebounds and a block in 14 minutes. Starting center Joshua Morgan had 4 points, 2 rebounds, and a block in 25 minutes. It's one game, but still ...

Iwuchukwu (I hope he goes pro so I don't have to type that name next season) does provide some needed depth off the bench.  SC may play a lot of guys, but they are 325^th in bench minutes.  (We are 260^th.)



* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

One of the problems for the Trojans is that they don't have a real point guard.  Drew Peterson gets the most assists.  He is 6'9", and he is no Magic Johnson. He leads the team in turnovers. 

Other than Morgan, the starters are decent ball handlers, but a couple of their bench players (Dixon-Waters and Malik Thomas) are turnover machines.  The tends to limit how Enfield can use his bench.    However, he has to play someone.

Although everyone who will play can score, the Trojans have only two really dangerous players, Boofie Ellis and Drew Peterson.

Boogie Ellis is their leading scorer.  He is  their best 3-point shooter.  The fact that their best 3-point shooter shoots only 37% should tell you about their 3-point prowess.   Of course, that doesn't mean they can't have a hot-shooting night.  However, we are good at defending the three, so I wouldn't bet on it.

Boogie will shoot a lot of threes.  He leads the team in three-point attempts by a pretty wide margin.  However, e is also very quick and very good at getting to the rim.  I am not sure who will guard him.  We did a good job on him last game, holding him to 4 of 14.  

You probably remember Drew Peterson going off for a career high of 27 points against us last season including 4-5 from the arc.  This 5^th-year senior is their second-leading scorer. and leads the Trojans in rebounds and assists.  He's only a 33% three-point shooter, and he is most dangerous when posting up.  He is VERY good with his turn-around fade-away shot.  It is almost impossible to block this shot, so we need to not let him get good position or double him from the outside.  

Earlier in the season, Reese Dixon-Waters started for the Trojans, but he now comes off the bench.  He still plays almost starter minutes.  He's hasn't shot the ball all that well, but he was 7 for 7 against us.  In the next 4 games he shot 36% from the field.  Go figure.  

Joshua Morgan transferred from Long Beach a couple of years ago and has developed into a quality Pac-12 center.  Although he has some post move and a nice jump shot, he isn't typically a big scorer.  He leads the Pac-12 in blocked shots at 2.8 per game.  He's no Mobley, but he's a good player.

7-foot Vincent Iwuchukwu is a wild card.  He was supposed to be a star for them.  He has had one excellent performance  out of the 4 games he has played.  He has a ton of talent, but is he ready to play consistently this well?  Who knows?

Kobe Johnson (not to be confused with Washington's Koren Johnson, who I don't think reads the Koran) may be the most complete player on Andy Enfield's roster.  He does everything well, including leading the team in steals.  Johnson is probably their best on-ball defender. 

I have no idea why Kijani Wright was a McDonald's All American or ranked that high out of high school.  I don't think he was that good in high school and he is not ready to play D-1 basketball.  But they needed somebody to back up Joshua Morgan and he is a good rebounder and shot blocker.  He hasn't been playing much recently, and with the return of the Iwuchukwu, I don't expect him to play much against us.

Tre White is one of the better freshmen in the Pac-12, and he has replaced Dixon-Waters in the staring lineup.  His 3-point shooting isn't very good, but he is dangerous inside the arc. 

Malik Thomas is a young player with potential, but he hasn't been scoring well in the Pac-12.  

Harrison Hornery had a career high 6 points in a career-high 17 minutes against us.  Look at his shooting numbers for the season.  I don't expect a repeat.

CONCLUSION

Before the last game I listed these problems for SC.  Their performance in the first game in in parentheses.

1. They don't defend the arc that well  (We shot 35% from the arc.)
2. They turn the ball over a lot.  (They had one of their lowest number of turnovers for the season with 10)
3. They don't have a real point guard.  (They had 10 assists)
4. They aren't a good rebounding team. (We led in rebounds 36 to 30.)
5. They aren't very deep. (They got 22 points off the bench.)

I still think all of these flaws exist, although Iwuchukwu, may help with the rebounding.  

We are still a Top Ten team.  I know we are struggling in some areas, but which top team not nicknamed "The Crimson Tide" isn't struggling a bit.

SC is still a bubble team at best.  The road is tough, but the computers thing we win 3 out of 4 at Galen.  Here's hoping this is one of the three.

Go Bruins!  Beat SC!!