Post by mhbruin on Jan 17, 2023 20:59:08 GMT -8
One down, two to go. The drudge through the desert continues.
This is not your grandfather's Arizona team. They are not last-year's team. They are good, but not on a par with last year's team, that only lost two games until the Sweet 16. Have respect, but no fear.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -0.5
Line: UCLA -1 (1-point favorites win 52% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 50% of the time
Nolan Prediction: Arizona wins 68-67
KemPom: UCLA wins 61% of the time, 78-75.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 55% of the time, 74-73.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing on the road? When we play Arzona at home, KenPom gives us 81%, which is 20% more than our chance of winning in Tucson. KenPom also says the Wildcats have a 3.3 point home court advantage in college basketball, which is the 118th best in D1. Maybe the endless "You of Ayy" chants annoys the Arizona players, too.
We have played comparable schedules.
ARIZONA'S RECORD
Only Purdue and Kansas have more Quad 1 wins than Arizona. The Wildcats are tied with four other teams with 5 Quad 1 wins.
Those Quad 1 wins are over Tennessee, Creighton, Indiana, San Diego State, and Arizona State. They have Quad 1 losses to Oregon and Utah, both on the road.
The real blemish on their record is a 13-point home loss to Washington State, when the Cougars made 12 three-pointers. Is this a hint to how to beat the Wildcats?
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
For a change, we are not playing an elite defense.
UCLA's offense hasn't been as good lately, but it is still excellent (as Arizona State found out in the last 5 minutes of Thursday's game.)
Meanwhile Arizona's defense is good, but not great at anything. Their best stat is defending the two-point shot. Again, good, but not great.
They are significantly worse at defensing the three-point shot, and we are better at shooting the three than the two.
They are really bad at generating turnovers. They are #220 in the country in steals per game. We might have turned the ball over 10 times in the first half last night, but don't expect a repeat in Tucson. (Don't expect much from Tucson except heartburn.)
They are the 15th tallest team in the country. However, they are 115th in the country in blocks. Unlike Arizona State, they are not great leapers.
Arizona plays fast. They are one of the fastest teams in the country.
Advantage: UCLA If Arizona State gave up 77 points to us, expect more against the Wildcats with a weaker defense and a faster tempo.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
This should be interesting. Elite offense meets elite defense. The conventional wisdom is that the defense wins. Here's hoping conventional wisdom is right.
Arizona is really good at scoring inside the paint. One part is fast breaks. Both their bigs run the floor well, but Tubelis is the biggest threat. We need to focus on getting back, particularly when Tyger penetrates.
The other part of this is the two great big players, Tubelis and Ballo. Oregon handled them by starting two 5-star 7-footers, Dante and Bittle. Ballo didn't do much damage when he faced a center as big and strong as he is. Dante not only held him to 10 points, but scored a season-high 22. We don't have that option.
If you like individual matchups, watching Jaimie or Jaylen defend Tubelis should be a blast. They simply need to keep repeating, "Tubelis is left-handed. Make him go to his right." In addition to repeating that, they need to make him go to his right. He is FAR less effective when he goes to his right. Somehow, many defenders on other teams don't seem to remember this. To paraphrase Bill Walton, he is left-handed and will continue to be so for the entire game.
Arizona assists on a very high percentage of their baskets. Other than Tubelis posting up, this is not a big one-on-one team.
Arizona turns the ball over a lot They have had double-digit turnovers in 10 of their last 11 games. We should make that 11 of 12, and with quite a few more than 10 turnovers.
Advantage: Even, although turnovers might give the Bruins a small edge.
OTHER FACTORS
With their size, Arizona is an excellent rebounding team. They also assists on a high percentage of their baskets. But they also turn the ball over a lot.
The Wildcats are #2 in the country at defensive rebounds. #1 is Alabama, another very fast-tempo team. When there are more possessions per game, there will be more rebounds.
They are #89 in offensive rebounds.
Advantage: Arizona
PLAYERS
Arizona is the 15th tallest team in the country (which is only the 6th tallest team in the Pac-12.)
Arizona will play 9 players, but they are pretty heavily dependent on their top six players. They are #282 in the US in bench minutes.
They have a lot of talent, with five Top 100 players, but we have seven Top 100 players, even without Amari Bailey.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Tubelis is a terrific player and Jaimie Jaquez's primary competition for Pac-12 player of the year. He is excellent around the basket, even if HE LIKES TO GO TO HIS LEFT. He is Arizona's best three-point shooter, although he doesn't shoot a lot of them. He does everything well, including rebounding, blocking shots, and running the floor. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding.
Pretty much Arizona divides the scoring. The bigs shoot two-pointers. The rest of the guys shoot three-pointers.
The other two-point shooter is Tubelis' front-court mate, Oumar Ballo. He's strong, mobile and skilled around the basket, but he seems to score a ton on dunks off of high-low action. Ballo and Tubelis may be the two combination of big men in the country.
Then there is everyone's least favorite Wildcat Kerr Kriisa. He's at his best when he plays facilitator. When he decides to be a scorer, he often plays too much hero ball. In their three losses he was 6 of 32 (19%) from the field and 4 of 25 from the arc. He's #11 nationally in assists per game, but that is in large part because of the tempo they play.
76% of Kriisa's shots are threes. That's a lot, but it makes sense. He doesn't shoot that well inside the arc. He loves to shoot from quite a ways behind the arc. While he makes some of them, he's not Steph Curry.
Texas transfer Courtney Ramey was brought in for his three-point shooting, and he has been good at it. He also handles the ball well, and leads the team in steals.
Pelle Larsson (son of Lars) was the Pac-12's best 6th man at Utah, but became a starter at Arizona. In their last game, he was replaced in the starting lineup, so he may be back to his familiar role. He does everything pretty well, but his shooting hasn't been good.
Replacing the son of Lars in the starting lineup was Cedric Henderson Jr (son of Cedric Henderson). He is shooting better that Pelle, and he rebounds about as well. The change makes sense.
Henri Veesaar backs up Ballo. He is tall and moves well, but he is not the banger that Ballo is.
Freshman Kylan Boswell is going to be a terrific player. He already has the best A/TO ratio on the team. His shooting hasn't been good, although he has had some good games. He is playing more lately.
CONCLUSION
Arizona is a completely different challenge from Arizona State. Instead of worrying about the quick guards, we need to worry about the two elite big men. In the NCAA tournament, you are likely to face all kinds of different challenges. To succeed in March, you have to be able to play against anyone. This game will be a good measure of that.
Arizona has a great frontcourt, but their backcourt isn't nearly as good.
The Wildcats have lost 2 of their last 4 games. Arizona's three losses have been their three worst-shooting and lowest-scoring games of the season. So the key to beating the Wildcats is simple. Simpler said than done.
Somehow, I imagine Mick has mentioned defense in the preparation for this game. He may have also mentioned that Tubelis likes to go to his left.
The computers see this game as a toss-up. On paper (or pixels), we are the better team. We would be favored on a neutral court.
Here are the reasons for optimism. 1) We are more talented. 2) We are deeper. 3) Great defense beats great offense.
All we need to do is shut down the #9 offense in the country. Just go do that Bruins!
And remember that Tubelis likes to go to his left.
I see this game as a 10 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
It's definitely at least a two-drink game for me.
Go Bruins!
This is not your grandfather's Arizona team. They are not last-year's team. They are good, but not on a par with last year's team, that only lost two games until the Sweet 16. Have respect, but no fear.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -0.5
Line: UCLA -1 (1-point favorites win 52% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 50% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 54% of the time 77-76.
Nolan Prediction: Arizona wins 68-67
KemPom: UCLA wins 61% of the time, 78-75.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 55% of the time, 74-73.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing on the road? When we play Arzona at home, KenPom gives us 81%, which is 20% more than our chance of winning in Tucson. KenPom also says the Wildcats have a 3.3 point home court advantage in college basketball, which is the 118th best in D1. Maybe the endless "You of Ayy" chants annoys the Arizona players, too.
Arizona | UCLA | |
NET | 12 | 5 |
KenPom Rank | 17 | 3 |
Sagarin Rank | 16 | 2 |
Torvick Rank | 12 | 3 |
SOS | 48 | 33 |
Record | 16-3 | 17-2 |
We have played comparable schedules.
ARIZONA'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 4-2 | 5-0 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
Arizona | 5-2 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
Only Purdue and Kansas have more Quad 1 wins than Arizona. The Wildcats are tied with four other teams with 5 Quad 1 wins.
Those Quad 1 wins are over Tennessee, Creighton, Indiana, San Diego State, and Arizona State. They have Quad 1 losses to Oregon and Utah, both on the road.
The real blemish on their record is a 13-point home loss to Washington State, when the Cougars made 12 three-pointers. Is this a hint to how to beat the Wildcats?
Arizona Home | 10-1 |
UCLA Road / Neutral | 6-2 |
UCLA True Road Games | 5-0 |
This will be a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA'S DEFENSE
For a change, we are not playing an elite defense.
Arizona Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 70 | 12 |
Torvick Rank | 67 | 16 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 77 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 9 of 363 | 230 |
FG Percent | 41% | 47% |
Effective FG Percent | 47.2% (59) | 52.4% (84) |
3-Pt Percent | 32,3% (113) | 36.1% (69) |
3-Pt Rate | 39.1% (243) | 27.6% (350) |
2-Pt Percent | 46.4% (56) | 52.1% (101) |
FT Percent | 72% (161) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.3% (91) | 33.8% (40) |
Assist Percent | 48.6% (115) | 50.5% (195) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 16.7% (290) | 14.2% (6) |
Block Percent | 10.1% (115) | 5.6% (12) |
UCLA's offense hasn't been as good lately, but it is still excellent (as Arizona State found out in the last 5 minutes of Thursday's game.)
Meanwhile Arizona's defense is good, but not great at anything. Their best stat is defending the two-point shot. Again, good, but not great.
They are significantly worse at defensing the three-point shot, and we are better at shooting the three than the two.
They are really bad at generating turnovers. They are #220 in the country in steals per game. We might have turned the ball over 10 times in the first half last night, but don't expect a repeat in Tucson. (Don't expect much from Tucson except heartburn.)
They are the 15th tallest team in the country. However, they are 115th in the country in blocks. Unlike Arizona State, they are not great leapers.
Arizona plays fast. They are one of the fastest teams in the country.
Advantage: UCLA If Arizona State gave up 77 points to us, expect more against the Wildcats with a weaker defense and a faster tempo.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA'S OFFENSE
This should be interesting. Elite offense meets elite defense. The conventional wisdom is that the defense wins. Here's hoping conventional wisdom is right.
UCLA Defense | Arizona Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 5 | 9 |
Torvick Rank | 5 | 3 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 85 |
FG Percent | 40.9% | 49.2% |
Effective FG Percent | 46.6% (46) | 56.0% (9) |
3-Pt Percent | 29.0% (18) | 33.7% (89) |
3-Pt Rate | 27.6% (350) | 38.2% (167) |
2-Pt Percent | 51.8% (108) | 57.5% (8) |
FT Percent | 72.9% (140) | |
Offensive Rebound Percent | 30.8% (263) | 33.5% (49) |
Assist Percent | 50.5% (195) | 66.5% (6) |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.9% (9) | 19.1%(202) |
Block Percent | 12.9% (34) | 8.4% (135) |
Arizona is really good at scoring inside the paint. One part is fast breaks. Both their bigs run the floor well, but Tubelis is the biggest threat. We need to focus on getting back, particularly when Tyger penetrates.
The other part of this is the two great big players, Tubelis and Ballo. Oregon handled them by starting two 5-star 7-footers, Dante and Bittle. Ballo didn't do much damage when he faced a center as big and strong as he is. Dante not only held him to 10 points, but scored a season-high 22. We don't have that option.
If you like individual matchups, watching Jaimie or Jaylen defend Tubelis should be a blast. They simply need to keep repeating, "Tubelis is left-handed. Make him go to his right." In addition to repeating that, they need to make him go to his right. He is FAR less effective when he goes to his right. Somehow, many defenders on other teams don't seem to remember this. To paraphrase Bill Walton, he is left-handed and will continue to be so for the entire game.
Arizona assists on a very high percentage of their baskets. Other than Tubelis posting up, this is not a big one-on-one team.
Arizona turns the ball over a lot They have had double-digit turnovers in 10 of their last 11 games. We should make that 11 of 12, and with quite a few more than 10 turnovers.
Advantage: Even, although turnovers might give the Bruins a small edge.
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona | UCLA | |
Rebound margin | 9.0 | 3.1 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.4 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
With their size, Arizona is an excellent rebounding team. They also assists on a high percentage of their baskets. But they also turn the ball over a lot.
The Wildcats are #2 in the country at defensive rebounds. #1 is Alabama, another very fast-tempo team. When there are more possessions per game, there will be more rebounds.
They are #89 in offensive rebounds.
Advantage: Arizona
PLAYERS
Arizona is the 15th tallest team in the country (which is only the 6th tallest team in the Pac-12.)
Arizona will play 9 players, but they are pretty heavily dependent on their top six players. They are #282 in the US in bench minutes.
They have a lot of talent, with five Top 100 players, but we have seven Top 100 players, even without Amari Bailey.
Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
Azuolas Tubelis F | Jr | 6-11 245 | 4-star 57 | 19 | 30 | 20 | 12.6 | 2 | 1.2 | 57% | 45% | 8% | 1.0 |
Oumar Ballo C | Jr | 7-0 260 | 4-star 78 | 19 | 28 | 16 | 12.9 | 1 | 2.3 | 65% | 0.7 | ||
Kerr Kriisa G | Jr | 6-3 190 | 4-star 85 | 19 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 38% | 35% | 76% | 2.0 | ||
Courtney Ramey G | Sr | 6-3 185 | 4-star 43 | 16 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 39% | 41% | 68% | 2.0 | ||
Pelle Larsson G | Jr | 6-5 215 | 3-star 203 | 19 | 28 | 10 | 7.1 | 2 | 43% | 31% | 48% | 1.5 | |
Cedric Henderson Jr. G | Sr | 6-6 200 | Unranked | 19 | 20 | 7 | 6.7 | 1 | 50% | 36% | 44% | 0.7 | |
Henri Veesaar F | Fr | 7-0 200 | Unranked | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7.0 | 2 | 2.5 | 59% | 20% | 1.0 | |
Adama Bal G | So | 6-7 190 | 4-star 131 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 39% | 33% | 1.0 | |||
Kylan Boswell G | Fr | 6-1 190 | 4-star 30 | 19 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 28% | 67% | 2.8 | ||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Tubelis is a terrific player and Jaimie Jaquez's primary competition for Pac-12 player of the year. He is excellent around the basket, even if HE LIKES TO GO TO HIS LEFT. He is Arizona's best three-point shooter, although he doesn't shoot a lot of them. He does everything well, including rebounding, blocking shots, and running the floor. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding.
Pretty much Arizona divides the scoring. The bigs shoot two-pointers. The rest of the guys shoot three-pointers.
The other two-point shooter is Tubelis' front-court mate, Oumar Ballo. He's strong, mobile and skilled around the basket, but he seems to score a ton on dunks off of high-low action. Ballo and Tubelis may be the two combination of big men in the country.
Then there is everyone's least favorite Wildcat Kerr Kriisa. He's at his best when he plays facilitator. When he decides to be a scorer, he often plays too much hero ball. In their three losses he was 6 of 32 (19%) from the field and 4 of 25 from the arc. He's #11 nationally in assists per game, but that is in large part because of the tempo they play.
76% of Kriisa's shots are threes. That's a lot, but it makes sense. He doesn't shoot that well inside the arc. He loves to shoot from quite a ways behind the arc. While he makes some of them, he's not Steph Curry.
Texas transfer Courtney Ramey was brought in for his three-point shooting, and he has been good at it. He also handles the ball well, and leads the team in steals.
Pelle Larsson (son of Lars) was the Pac-12's best 6th man at Utah, but became a starter at Arizona. In their last game, he was replaced in the starting lineup, so he may be back to his familiar role. He does everything pretty well, but his shooting hasn't been good.
Replacing the son of Lars in the starting lineup was Cedric Henderson Jr (son of Cedric Henderson). He is shooting better that Pelle, and he rebounds about as well. The change makes sense.
Henri Veesaar backs up Ballo. He is tall and moves well, but he is not the banger that Ballo is.
Freshman Kylan Boswell is going to be a terrific player. He already has the best A/TO ratio on the team. His shooting hasn't been good, although he has had some good games. He is playing more lately.
CONCLUSION
Arizona is a completely different challenge from Arizona State. Instead of worrying about the quick guards, we need to worry about the two elite big men. In the NCAA tournament, you are likely to face all kinds of different challenges. To succeed in March, you have to be able to play against anyone. This game will be a good measure of that.
Arizona has a great frontcourt, but their backcourt isn't nearly as good.
The Wildcats have lost 2 of their last 4 games. Arizona's three losses have been their three worst-shooting and lowest-scoring games of the season. So the key to beating the Wildcats is simple. Simpler said than done.
Somehow, I imagine Mick has mentioned defense in the preparation for this game. He may have also mentioned that Tubelis likes to go to his left.
The computers see this game as a toss-up. On paper (or pixels), we are the better team. We would be favored on a neutral court.
Here are the reasons for optimism. 1) We are more talented. 2) We are deeper. 3) Great defense beats great offense.
All we need to do is shut down the #9 offense in the country. Just go do that Bruins!
And remember that Tubelis likes to go to his left.
I see this game as a 10 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
It's definitely at least a two-drink game for me.
Go Bruins!