Post by mhbruin on Jan 5, 2023 11:19:39 GMT -8
Utah is a good team. According to the NET, only two teams we have played this year are higher-rated, Baylor and Illinois. We lost both those games.
If you prefer KenPom, Baylor, Illinois, and Kentucky are the teams that are higher-rated than Utah.
Whatever computer ranking you like, Utah is a good team and a serious challenge. They are fundamentally sound and very well coached.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -10.5
Line: UCLA -12 (12 point favorites win 97% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 90% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-58
KemPom: UCLA wins 85% of the time, 73-61.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 88% of the time, 73-60.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing at home? When we play at Utah, KenPom gives us a 68%, which is 17% less than our chance of winning in Pauley.
We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
UTAH'S RECORD
Utah's record is a little weird, with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 losses.
The Quad 1 wins are over Arizona and at Washington State. The Quad 1 losses are to Mississippi State and TCU.
Their Quad 2 losses are to Sam Houston State, BYU and Oregon. Sam Houston State is #39 in the NET and #80 in KenPom. They are a decent team, with another road win at Oklahoma.
There's a little bit of shine off Utah's Arizona win after they lost at home to WSU, but a bit more shine on the Washington State win after their win over Arizona.
Utah has lost 3 of their last 6 games, with the wins over Oregon State, Stanford, and Cal, who are not exactly the best of the Pac-12.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for the Utes.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
This end of the floor will be where great offense meets great defense.
Utah plays mostly man defense, but they will throw in a little bit of zone.
Defensive efficiency is basically points per 100 possessions. There are two key factors in how efficient your defense is:
Utah is elite at #1, but not very good at #2. Utah will be the most efficient defense we will face until the NCAA tournament.
Utah defends the two-point shot extremely well. They defend the three-point shot even better. We may find it hard to get high-quality shots.
As mentioned, they don't generate turnovers. We don't turn the ball over.
There is more example of strength on strength. They block a lot of shots. We don't get shots blocked much. We need to do better than we did against SC.
Advantage: Small Edge for Utah
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
The most remarkable thing about the Utah offense is that there is nothing remarkable about it. They are decent at everything, but not particularly good at anything.
Their best stat is being #66 assisted baskets. They are a good passing team.
We are better at defense than they are at offense with one exception. They shoot the 2-point shot better than we defend it.
In fact, our defense inside the arc isn't great. Last season we held teams to 47% inside the arc. I am sure Mick isn't happy about this season's 52%.
That is somewhat offset by turnovers. We generate them. A lot of them. They are only average at protecting the ball. Our 24% turnover rate is a big improvement over last season's 19%.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
In addition to defense, Utah is GREAT on the boards. Their rebound margin is #22 in the country. The next best teams in the Pac-12 are Colorado at #51 and Oregon at #59.
However, this is mostly defensive rebounds. They are #171 in offensive rebounds and #3 on defensive boards. We should not expect a lot of offensive rebounds,
They handle the ball well, but we handle it better.
Advantage: Mixed
PLAYERS
Utah is the ninth tallest team in the nation. If it seems like we are playing a lot of tall teams, this is because we are. Here are some Pac-12 teams average heights:
The Bruins are the 185th tallest team in the country.
Utah will play a lot of players, but still relies heavily on their starters. They are 281st in bench minutes. If you check out the shooting percentages for their bench players, you can understand why.
On paper this is not a talented roster, but with solid fundamentals and by playing together, they have overachieved. Good coaching will do that.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Branden Carlson (the tall guy with the headband) may be the only true center in the Pac-12 who leads his team in scoring. He also leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is second in the league in blocks per game, 4th in rebounds, and 7th in scoring. I think he is the only player in the Pac-12 who is Top Ten in scoring, rebounding, blocks, two-point percent, and three-point percent.
Carlson is the key to Utah's offense. He's very versatile scorer He can maneuver around the basket and hit the three. He is not a physical player, and he may not enjoy physical defense. Then again, he scored 22 against Ballo in Tucson.
Gabe Madsen (the smaller guy with the headband) is a Cincinnati transfer. Although, as a team, the Utes don't shoot a log of threes, Madsen is a big exception, with around 2/3rds of his shots coming from outside the arc. He has a quick release and shoots the three well off the dribble. He leads the team in steals, but this is not a team that steals the ball a lot.
Lazar Stefanovic shoots the same average inside and beyond the arc. 39% is a good number for three-point shots, but not for twos.
5th-year senior Marco Anthony is on his third school. After 2 years at Virginia, he transferred to Utah State, and then followed Coach Smith to Utah. He's considered their glue guy. He's their third-leading scorer, but he is not an outside threat, having only taken one three-point shot all season. He has a good midrange game, and he is dangerous off the di.
You might expect a guy who played for Tony Bennett at Virginia to be a very good on defense. You would be correct. Anthony is their best individual defender. He will probably be assigned to Jaimie Jaquez.
Rollie Worster is another player who followed coach Smith from Utah State. He is nominally the PG, but they run their offense with a lot of motion and passing, so he doesn't necessarily have the ball in his hands most of time. He leads the team in assists.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, where he played around 9 minutes a game. He's a good rebounder.
Keba Keita is from Mali. At 6'7" he is their backup center. He only shoots around twice a game, but he makes a high percentage.
Mike Saunders Jr. transferred from Cincinnati. He's not related to former UCLA player Mike Sanders. He hasn't shot the ball well.
Wilguens Exacte Jr. is their best three-point shooter off the bench, but he hasn't been playing much lately.
CONCLUSION
The computers see the Bruins as solid favorites at home. However, this doesn't look like an easy win. Utah hasn't lost a game by more than 10 all season.
In their losses, they other teams didn't shoot all that well. However, Utah shot worse. We should not expect to blow them out with explosive offense. We need to win this game with defense.
Coach Cronin has had a week to deal with the problems that showed up during the SC game. I expect a better effort.
I think Utah is a better team than SC, even if SC has better athletes. This looks like a close, low-scoring game. I think we win at home, but I think this is closer than the computers predict.
I see this game as an 8 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!
If you prefer KenPom, Baylor, Illinois, and Kentucky are the teams that are higher-rated than Utah.
Whatever computer ranking you like, Utah is a good team and a serious challenge. They are fundamentally sound and very well coached.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -10.5
Line: UCLA -12 (12 point favorites win 97% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 90% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 88% of the time 72-60.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-58
KemPom: UCLA wins 85% of the time, 73-61.
Average prediction: UCLA wins 88% of the time, 73-60.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing at home? When we play at Utah, KenPom gives us a 68%, which is 17% less than our chance of winning in Pauley.
| Utah | UCLA | |
| NET | 43 | 7 |
| KenPom Rank | 45 | 4 |
| Sagarin Rank | 53 | 5 |
| Torvick Rank | 38 | 4 |
| SOS | 176 | 52 |
| Record | 12-5 | 14-2 |
We have a better record against a tougher schedule.
UTAH'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 3-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Utah | 2-2 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 8-0 |
Utah's record is a little weird, with two Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 losses.
The Quad 1 wins are over Arizona and at Washington State. The Quad 1 losses are to Mississippi State and TCU.
Their Quad 2 losses are to Sam Houston State, BYU and Oregon. Sam Houston State is #39 in the NET and #80 in KenPom. They are a decent team, with another road win at Oklahoma.
There's a little bit of shine off Utah's Arizona win after they lost at home to WSU, but a bit more shine on the Washington State win after their win over Arizona.
Utah has lost 3 of their last 6 games, with the wins over Oregon State, Stanford, and Cal, who are not exactly the best of the Pac-12.
| UCLA Home | 9-0 |
| Utah Road / Neutral | 4-3 |
| Utah True Road Games | 3-1 |
This will be a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for the Utes.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
This end of the floor will be where great offense meets great defense.
Utah plays mostly man defense, but they will throw in a little bit of zone.
Utah Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 16 | 10 |
| Torvick Rank | 18 | 12 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 78 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 143 of 363 | 210 |
| FG Percent | 36% | 48% |
| Effective FG Percent | 41.6% (3) | 53.0% (58) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 26.8% (6) | 37.0% (47) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 37.2% (167) | 27.2% (353) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 41.4% (10) | 52.1% (101) |
| FT Percent | 74% (91) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.8% (114) | 32.5% (71) |
| Assist Percent | 50.1% (152) | 49.4% (217) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 16.0% (324) | 13.8% (4) |
| Block Percent | 12.5% (39) | 6.1% (24) |
Defensive efficiency is basically points per 100 possessions. There are two key factors in how efficient your defense is:
- Holding your opponent to a low shooting percentage.
- Preventing your opponent from shooting at all by generating turnovers.
Utah is elite at #1, but not very good at #2. Utah will be the most efficient defense we will face until the NCAA tournament.
Utah defends the two-point shot extremely well. They defend the three-point shot even better. We may find it hard to get high-quality shots.
As mentioned, they don't generate turnovers. We don't turn the ball over.
There is more example of strength on strength. They block a lot of shots. We don't get shots blocked much. We need to do better than we did against SC.
Advantage: Small Edge for Utah
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Utah Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 6 | 101 |
| Torvick Rank | 6 | 105 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 61 | 74 |
| FG Percent | 42.7% | 46.5% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.5% (84) | 51.7% (104) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 28.9% (22) | 34.5% (138) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 40.4% (273) | 34.3% (266) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50.3. (188) | 51.6% (112) |
| FT Percent | 70.8% (186) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 32.5% (71) | 31.4% (98) |
| Assist Percent | 51.8% (194) | 55.9% (66) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (12) | 18.9 (183) |
| Block Percent | 10.9% (81) | 8.5% (149) |
The most remarkable thing about the Utah offense is that there is nothing remarkable about it. They are decent at everything, but not particularly good at anything.
Their best stat is being #66 assisted baskets. They are a good passing team.
We are better at defense than they are at offense with one exception. They shoot the 2-point shot better than we defend it.
In fact, our defense inside the arc isn't great. Last season we held teams to 47% inside the arc. I am sure Mick isn't happy about this season's 52%.
That is somewhat offset by turnovers. We generate them. A lot of them. They are only average at protecting the ball. Our 24% turnover rate is a big improvement over last season's 19%.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
| Utah | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 6.8 | 2.7 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
In addition to defense, Utah is GREAT on the boards. Their rebound margin is #22 in the country. The next best teams in the Pac-12 are Colorado at #51 and Oregon at #59.
However, this is mostly defensive rebounds. They are #171 in offensive rebounds and #3 on defensive boards. We should not expect a lot of offensive rebounds,
They handle the ball well, but we handle it better.
Advantage: Mixed
PLAYERS
Utah is the ninth tallest team in the nation. If it seems like we are playing a lot of tall teams, this is because we are. Here are some Pac-12 teams average heights:
| Team | National Rank |
| Oregon | #2 |
| California | #5 |
| USC | #6 |
| Stanford | #7 |
| Utah | #9 |
| Arizona | #13 |
| Washington State | #15 |
| Oregon State | #25 |
The Bruins are the 185th tallest team in the country.
Utah will play a lot of players, but still relies heavily on their starters. They are 281st in bench minutes. If you check out the shooting percentages for their bench players, you can understand why.
On paper this is not a talented roster, but with solid fundamentals and by playing together, they have overachieved. Good coaching will do that.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Branden Carlson C | Sr | 7'0" 228 | 4-star 102 | 17 | 28 | 16 | 10.5 | 1 | 3.3 | 54% | 40% | 28% | 0.7 |
| Gabe Madsen G | Jr | 6'6" 202 | 3-star 209 | 17 | 30 | 13 | 2 | 0.6 | 37% | 37% | 66% | 1.0 | |
| Marco Anthony G | Sr 5 | 6' 6" 226 | 3-star 244 | 14 | 31 | 12 | 9.1 | 2 | 0.5 | 57% | 100% | 1% | 1.6 |
| Lazar Stefanovic G | So | 6'7" 186 | Unranked | 17 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 39% | 39% | 43% | 1.8 | ||
| Rollie Worster G | Jr | 6'4" 203 | Unranked | 17 | 31 | 8 | 7.3 | 5 | 42% | 24% | 33% | 2.3 | |
| Ben Carlson F | Jr | 6'9" 227 | 4-star 107 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 10.9 | 0 | 46% | 20% | 0.4 | ||
| Keba Keita C | Fr | 6'7" 230 | 3-star 158 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 12.1 | 0 | 3.6 | 74% | 0.2 | ||
| Mike Saunders Jr. G | Jr | 6'0" 185 | 3-star 240 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 38% | 11% | 1.3 | |||
| Wilguens Exacte Jr. | Fr | 6'6" 230 | Unranked | 17 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 38% | 37% | 45% | 1.0 | ||
| Bostyn Holt F | Sr | 6'6" 193 | Unranked JUCO | 12 | 8 | 2 | 8.0 | 0 | 46% | 25% | 0.8 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Branden Carlson (the tall guy with the headband) may be the only true center in the Pac-12 who leads his team in scoring. He also leads the team in rebounds and blocks. He is second in the league in blocks per game, 4th in rebounds, and 7th in scoring. I think he is the only player in the Pac-12 who is Top Ten in scoring, rebounding, blocks, two-point percent, and three-point percent.
Carlson is the key to Utah's offense. He's very versatile scorer He can maneuver around the basket and hit the three. He is not a physical player, and he may not enjoy physical defense. Then again, he scored 22 against Ballo in Tucson.
Gabe Madsen (the smaller guy with the headband) is a Cincinnati transfer. Although, as a team, the Utes don't shoot a log of threes, Madsen is a big exception, with around 2/3rds of his shots coming from outside the arc. He has a quick release and shoots the three well off the dribble. He leads the team in steals, but this is not a team that steals the ball a lot.
Lazar Stefanovic shoots the same average inside and beyond the arc. 39% is a good number for three-point shots, but not for twos.
5th-year senior Marco Anthony is on his third school. After 2 years at Virginia, he transferred to Utah State, and then followed Coach Smith to Utah. He's considered their glue guy. He's their third-leading scorer, but he is not an outside threat, having only taken one three-point shot all season. He has a good midrange game, and he is dangerous off the di.
You might expect a guy who played for Tony Bennett at Virginia to be a very good on defense. You would be correct. Anthony is their best individual defender. He will probably be assigned to Jaimie Jaquez.
Rollie Worster is another player who followed coach Smith from Utah State. He is nominally the PG, but they run their offense with a lot of motion and passing, so he doesn't necessarily have the ball in his hands most of time. He leads the team in assists.
Ben Carlson transferred from Wisconsin, where he played around 9 minutes a game. He's a good rebounder.
Keba Keita is from Mali. At 6'7" he is their backup center. He only shoots around twice a game, but he makes a high percentage.
Mike Saunders Jr. transferred from Cincinnati. He's not related to former UCLA player Mike Sanders. He hasn't shot the ball well.
Wilguens Exacte Jr. is their best three-point shooter off the bench, but he hasn't been playing much lately.
CONCLUSION
The computers see the Bruins as solid favorites at home. However, this doesn't look like an easy win. Utah hasn't lost a game by more than 10 all season.
In their losses, they other teams didn't shoot all that well. However, Utah shot worse. We should not expect to blow them out with explosive offense. We need to win this game with defense.
Coach Cronin has had a week to deal with the problems that showed up during the SC game. I expect a better effort.
I think Utah is a better team than SC, even if SC has better athletes. This looks like a close, low-scoring game. I think we win at home, but I think this is closer than the computers predict.
I see this game as an 8 on the nail-biting scale. (0=I finish the game with all my nails intact. 10=All my nails are trashed by the end of the game.)
Go Bruins!