Post by mhbruin on Jan 1, 2023 11:15:56 GMT -8
If you are a typical UCLA fan, you probably find the prospect of playing SC makes you anxious. It makes he anxious. We have seen too many of their players have career nights against us, and others make ridiculous buzzer-beaters.
On top of that, SC is 11-4 and has a win over Auburn.
However, this team is talented and dangerous, but they have some serious flaws. We should be solid favorites.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -12.0
Line: UCLA -12.5 (12.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-60
KemPom: UCLA wins 91% of the time, 78-64.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing at home? Later, when we play at Galen, KenPom gives us a 77%, which is 14% less than our chance of winning in Pauley. They road is a challenge.
The computers don't think much of SC. The Trojans have the worst NET ranking of any Power 6 team with 4 losses. I have a little higher opinion of them.
We have played a tougher schedule that USC.
USC'S RECORD
SC's best wins are at home over Auburn and over BYU on a neutral court.
Their losses are to Tennessee, Wisconsin, Washington State and FGCU. Florida Gulf Coast is 10-3, and they are 4 spots in the NET away from giving SC a Quad 2 loss instead of the Quad 3 loss.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for the Trojans.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
SC will mix up defenses, including man, zone, and pressing full court.
USC is a good defensive team, but they are elite in two related things. They defend the two-point shot EXTREMELY well, and this is in large part because they are one of the very best shot blocking teams in the nation. Joshua Morgan leads the nation in blocked shots. They can pack the lane with a bunch of tall guys with long arms.
We don't usually get our shots blocked, so this will be strength against strength. Jaimie may have some problems with his normal post-up game, but if he takes his mid-range shots, like he did in the second half against WSU, he should be fine.
USC challenges teams to beat them with the outside shots, and they don't defend the three all that well. WSU shot 48% from the arc on 29 3-point shots and beat the Trojans fairly soundly. We shoot the three extremely well, but we don't shoot very many of them. We are 199th in the nation in 3-point frequency.
Washington tried to pack the lane and challenge us to shoot threes. We took 23 of them and made 39% of those shots.
Other than when they are pressing full court, they don't pressure the ball that much, so they are not very good at generating turnovers. It may not matter too much, since we don't turn the ball over that much.
For all their size, they give up quite a few offensive rebounds, and we are pretty good on the offensive boards. We should be able to exploit this.
Advantage: UCLA , but only if we are hitting our threes.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC'S OFFENSE
SC is not a good 3-point shooting team. They seem to realize this and they take very few of them. They make their points inside the arc.
We are better at defending the three than the two, so this is their relative strength against the weaker part of our defense.
However, they turn the ball over a lot, and of course, we generate a lot of turnovers. That should be the difference on this end of the floor.
We are blocking more shots, and they get quite a few of their shots blocked.
Overall, we are an elite defense, and they are just a good offense.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
We are better on the boards. We handle the ball better.
USC has no rotation with an A/TO ratio above 1.6, while we have four of them. Two players are over 3.0, while Tyger is at 2.5, and that's not counting Will McClendon who has 7 assists and no turnovers on the season.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
USC will play a lot of players, but most of their production comes from seven of them. The Trojans would probably be a lot better if they had 5-star freshman VIncent Iwuchukwu, who is out with heart problems.
They are still a very tall team.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
One of the problems for the Trojans is that they don't have a real point guard. Drew Peterson is probably their best ball-handler, and although he is 6'9", he is no Magic Johnson. He leads the team in turnovers.
Other than Morgan, the starters are decent ball handlers, but a couple of their bench players (Dixon-Waters and Malik Thomas) are turnover machines. The tends to limit how Enfield can use his bench.
Although everyone who will play can score, the Trojans have only two really dangerous players, Boofie Ellis and Drew Peterson.
Boogie Ellis is their leading scorer. He is their second best 3-point shooter, and he will shoot a lot of them, but he is also very quick and very good at getting to the rim. I am not sure who will guard him.
You probably remember Drew Peterson going off for a career high of 27 points against us last season including 4-5 from the arc. This 5th-year senior is their other really dangerous scorer. He is their second leading scorer and leads the Trojans in rebounds and assists. He's only a 33% three-point shooter, and he is most dangerous when posting up. He is VERY good with his turn-around fade-away shot. It is almost impossible to block this shot, so we need to not let him get good position or double him from the outside. (Biggest adam's apple in college hoops.)
Earlier in the season, Reese Dixon-Waters started for the Trojans, but he now comes off the bench. He still plays almost starter minutes. He's not shooting all that well and he turns the ball over a lot. However, Enfield doesn't have a better option off the bench.
Joshua Morgan transferred from Long Beach a couple of years ago and has developed into a quality Pac-12 center. Although he has some post move and a nice jump shot, he isn't typically a big scorer. He leads the Pac-12 in blocked shots at 2.8 per game. He's no Mobley, but he's a good player.
Kobe Johnson (not to be confused with Washington's Koren Johnson, who I don't think reads the Koran) may be the most complete player on Andy Enfield's roster. He does everything well, including leading the team in steals. Johnson is probably their best on-ball defender. (Candidate for Vlade Divac flopping award.)
I have no idea why Kijani Wright was a McDonald's All American or ranked that high out of high school. I don't think he was that good in high school and he is not ready to play D-1 basketball. But they need somebody to back up Joshua Morgan and he is a good rebounder and shot blocker.
Tre White is one of the better freshmen in the Pac-12, and he has replaced Dixon-Waters in the staring lineup. His 3-point shooting isn't very good, but he is dangerous inside the arc.
Malik Thomas is their best outside shooter, but he doesn't play a ton of minutes.
CONCLUSION
The computers see the Bruins as heavy favorites at home. Maybe the computers see SC's flaws.
UCLA is a more talented, more complete team. After all, in the immortal words of J.R. Henderson, "The are just SC."
Go Bruins! Beat SC!!
On top of that, SC is 11-4 and has a win over Auburn.
However, this team is talented and dangerous, but they have some serious flaws. We should be solid favorites.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -12.5 (12.5 point favorites win 99% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 93% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 92% of the time 79-64.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 72-60
KemPom: UCLA wins 91% of the time, 78-64.
How much of that win percent is the result of playing at home? Later, when we play at Galen, KenPom gives us a 77%, which is 14% less than our chance of winning in Pauley. They road is a challenge.
| USC | UCLA | |
| NET | 84 | 6 |
| KenPom Rank | 67 | 4 |
| Sagarin Rank | 59 | 3 |
| Torvick Rank | 66 | 4 |
| SOS | 99 | 50 |
| Record | 11-4 | 13-2 |
The computers don't think much of SC. The Trojans have the worst NET ranking of any Power 6 team with 4 losses. I have a little higher opinion of them.
We have played a tougher schedule that USC.
USC'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-2 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| USC | 0-2 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 7-0 |
SC's best wins are at home over Auburn and over BYU on a neutral court.
Their losses are to Tennessee, Wisconsin, Washington State and FGCU. Florida Gulf Coast is 10-3, and they are 4 spots in the NET away from giving SC a Quad 2 loss instead of the Quad 3 loss.
| UCLA Home | 8-0 |
| USC Road / Neutral | 5-2 |
This will be a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for the Trojans.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS USC'S DEFENSE
SC will mix up defenses, including man, zone, and pressing full court.
USC Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 69 | 6 |
| Torvick Rank | 76 | 7 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 79 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 99 of 363 | 186 |
| FG Percent | 38% | 49% |
| Effective FG Percent | 44.5% (37) | 53.7% (48) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.9% (161) | 37.2% (41) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 38.2% (199) | 26.2% (35) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 41.5% (4) | 52.9% (73) |
| FT Percent | 74% (71) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 32.5% (304) | 31.9% (87) |
| Assist Percent | 55.5% (278) | 48.9% (231) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.7% (192) | 13.8% (4) |
| Block Percent | 15.2% (13) | 5.7% (19) |
USC is a good defensive team, but they are elite in two related things. They defend the two-point shot EXTREMELY well, and this is in large part because they are one of the very best shot blocking teams in the nation. Joshua Morgan leads the nation in blocked shots. They can pack the lane with a bunch of tall guys with long arms.
We don't usually get our shots blocked, so this will be strength against strength. Jaimie may have some problems with his normal post-up game, but if he takes his mid-range shots, like he did in the second half against WSU, he should be fine.
USC challenges teams to beat them with the outside shots, and they don't defend the three all that well. WSU shot 48% from the arc on 29 3-point shots and beat the Trojans fairly soundly. We shoot the three extremely well, but we don't shoot very many of them. We are 199th in the nation in 3-point frequency.
Washington tried to pack the lane and challenge us to shoot threes. We took 23 of them and made 39% of those shots.
Other than when they are pressing full court, they don't pressure the ball that much, so they are not very good at generating turnovers. It may not matter too much, since we don't turn the ball over that much.
For all their size, they give up quite a few offensive rebounds, and we are pretty good on the offensive boards. We should be able to exploit this.
Advantage: UCLA , but only if we are hitting our threes.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS USC'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | USC Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 7 | 71 |
| Torvick Rank | 9 | 63 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 6 | 72 |
| FG Percent | 38% | 46% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.3% (89) | 51.1% (133) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 29.4% (38) | 32.3% (238) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 41.1% (287) | 31.6% (310) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.6% (164) | 52.7% (97) |
| FT Percent | 71.3% (157) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.9% (183) | 30.2% (142) |
| Assist Percent | 52.6% (218) | 54.2% (103) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.7% (12) | 20.3 (271) |
| Block Percent | 11.3% (72) | 7.9% (103) |
SC is not a good 3-point shooting team. They seem to realize this and they take very few of them. They make their points inside the arc.
We are better at defending the three than the two, so this is their relative strength against the weaker part of our defense.
However, they turn the ball over a lot, and of course, we generate a lot of turnovers. That should be the difference on this end of the floor.
We are blocking more shots, and they get quite a few of their shots blocked.
Overall, we are an elite defense, and they are just a good offense.
Advantage: UCLA.
OTHER FACTORS
| USC | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | -1.6 | 2.6 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
We are better on the boards. We handle the ball better.
USC has no rotation with an A/TO ratio above 1.6, while we have four of them. Two players are over 3.0, while Tyger is at 2.5, and that's not counting Will McClendon who has 7 assists and no turnovers on the season.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
USC will play a lot of players, but most of their production comes from seven of them. The Trojans would probably be a lot better if they had 5-star freshman VIncent Iwuchukwu, who is out with heart problems.
They are still a very tall team.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Boogie Ellis G | Sr | 6'3" 185 | 4-star 38 | 15 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 2.5 | 44% | 38% | 46% | 1.3 | |
| Drew Peterson G | Sr | 6'9" 205 | 3-star 331 | 15 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 45% | 33% | 1.7 | |
| Reese Dixon-Waters G | So | 6'5" 210 | 4-star 52 | 15 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 43% | 25% | 0.4 | |
| Tre White G | Fr | 6'7" 210 | 4-star 47 | 15 | 26 | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 51% | 26% | 1.0 | |
| Joshua Morgan F | Jr | 6'11" 235 | 3-star 174 | 15 | 26 | 9 | 9 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 57% | 0.4 | ||
| Kobe Johnson F | So | 6'6" 200 | 3-star 247 | 15 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 2.8 | 48% | 36% | 1.6 | ||
| Malik Thomas G | So | 6'5" 210 | 4-star 81 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 0.3 | 46% | 39% | 0.3 | ||
| Kijani Wright F | Fr | 6'9" 235 | 4-star 44 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 44% | 1.2 | ||
| . |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
One of the problems for the Trojans is that they don't have a real point guard. Drew Peterson is probably their best ball-handler, and although he is 6'9", he is no Magic Johnson. He leads the team in turnovers.
Other than Morgan, the starters are decent ball handlers, but a couple of their bench players (Dixon-Waters and Malik Thomas) are turnover machines. The tends to limit how Enfield can use his bench.
Although everyone who will play can score, the Trojans have only two really dangerous players, Boofie Ellis and Drew Peterson.
Boogie Ellis is their leading scorer. He is their second best 3-point shooter, and he will shoot a lot of them, but he is also very quick and very good at getting to the rim. I am not sure who will guard him.
You probably remember Drew Peterson going off for a career high of 27 points against us last season including 4-5 from the arc. This 5th-year senior is their other really dangerous scorer. He is their second leading scorer and leads the Trojans in rebounds and assists. He's only a 33% three-point shooter, and he is most dangerous when posting up. He is VERY good with his turn-around fade-away shot. It is almost impossible to block this shot, so we need to not let him get good position or double him from the outside. (Biggest adam's apple in college hoops.)
Earlier in the season, Reese Dixon-Waters started for the Trojans, but he now comes off the bench. He still plays almost starter minutes. He's not shooting all that well and he turns the ball over a lot. However, Enfield doesn't have a better option off the bench.
Joshua Morgan transferred from Long Beach a couple of years ago and has developed into a quality Pac-12 center. Although he has some post move and a nice jump shot, he isn't typically a big scorer. He leads the Pac-12 in blocked shots at 2.8 per game. He's no Mobley, but he's a good player.
Kobe Johnson (not to be confused with Washington's Koren Johnson, who I don't think reads the Koran) may be the most complete player on Andy Enfield's roster. He does everything well, including leading the team in steals. Johnson is probably their best on-ball defender. (Candidate for Vlade Divac flopping award.)
I have no idea why Kijani Wright was a McDonald's All American or ranked that high out of high school. I don't think he was that good in high school and he is not ready to play D-1 basketball. But they need somebody to back up Joshua Morgan and he is a good rebounder and shot blocker.
Tre White is one of the better freshmen in the Pac-12, and he has replaced Dixon-Waters in the staring lineup. His 3-point shooting isn't very good, but he is dangerous inside the arc.
Malik Thomas is their best outside shooter, but he doesn't play a ton of minutes.
CONCLUSION
The computers see the Bruins as heavy favorites at home. Maybe the computers see SC's flaws.
- They don't defend the arc that well
- They turn the ball over a lot
- They don't have a real point guard.
- They aren't a good rebounding team.
- They aren't very deep.
UCLA is a more talented, more complete team. After all, in the immortal words of J.R. Henderson, "The are just SC."
Go Bruins! Beat SC!!