Post by mhbruin on Dec 29, 2022 11:34:05 GMT -8
Washington is another one of those teams with a mixed record. They have good wins over St Mary's and Colorado. They have bad losses to Oregon State and Cal Baptist.
They play pretty good defense and bad offense. In short, they are a typical Mike Hopkins team.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -10.0
Line: UCLA -10.5 (8.5 point favorites win 90% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-63.
KemPom: UCLA wins 86% of the time, 76-65.
The computers all see the Huskies as a bit weaker than the Cougars, even though they have won more games.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington is one of those enigma teams with two wins in the top two quads and 3 losses in the bottom two.
THey have good wins over Saint Mary's and Colorado. They have bad losses to USC, Oregon State, and Cal Baptist. The USC and Cal Baptist losses were at home.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us, but it is close to a Quad 3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington plays a lot of "that zone", but will play some man defense.
Washington's defense is not quite as good as WSU's defense, and it is a different defense. The Huskies are very good at defending the three-point shot, but not so good against the two-point shot. We don't shoot a lot of 3's, and we are very good inside the arc.
They are elite at one thing and terrible at the other. Their real strength is blocking shots, where they are one of the best in the country. We are just as good at not getting our shots blocked. This is real strength against strength. If we can avoid getting our shots blocked, we should have a good scoring game.
The real problem of Washington is their defensive board. They give up a ton of offensive rebounds. We are good on the offensive boards, so we should be able to exploit this.
Before the WSU game, I wrote, "If we have a weakness at this point, it is poor FT shooting. That could keep this game closer than it needs to be." Then we go 21 for 22. What do I know?
Both teams play around the same moderate tempo.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
This one is pretty simple. Washington’s scoring attack has been an inconsistent and chaotic mess. UW is tied for 328th in the NCAA with 10.9 assists per game, ranked 254th in three-point field goal percentage (32.3%) and 216th in points per game (70.5).
It's hard to find anything UW does does well on offense or even decently They don't shoot the three that well, they are almost as bad at the two. They aren't very good on the offensive boards. They turn the ball over a lot. They get a lot of their shots blocked. They don't get a lot of assists, but they aren't great one-on-one players. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
They are good at one thing: Shooting free throws (in spite of Meah's odd way of shooting them). But they are only average at getting to the line.
It makes you wonder how they have good wins. Saint Mary's had a terrible shooting night, and the Huskies had an unusually good night shooting against Colorado.
Advantage: Big for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
We are better on the boards, and we handle the ball better.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Washington will go around 8 deep.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Huskies have some talented players, but the players I really like aren't the 5-star and 4-star players. Their two best players may be 3-stars Braxton Meah and Keyon Meinfield.
The real star is not Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks, but Fresno transfer Braxton Meah. The 7'1" center is only averaging 9 points per game, but he is shooting shooting 67%. Add in 6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game and he is contributing a lot. This is a surprise, since he didn't show much at Fresno. But he is flourishing in Seattle. He was going to be sharing minutes with Oregon transfer Franck Kepnang, but Franck went down for the season with an ACL tear.
Keion Brooks will gets the headlines. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Don't let his 17 points per game impress you. He is doing that while shooting 42% and 26% from the arc. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. Then again, he may be forced to shoot a lot, because there is no other reliable scorer for the Huskies. Like a number of Huskies, he turns the ball over a lot.
If there's another kid with star power on the roster, it's true freshman Keyon Menifield. By Coach Hopkins standards he is short, but he is quick and can score. When we are not playing the Huskies, I love watching this kid play. He has recently been put in the starting lineup, which makes sense, because he is by far their best ball-handler. At times he shows his youth with some bad shot selection, but he is dangerous from beyond the ard.
Cole Bajema may be the most improved player from last season. By Washington standards, he is a good shooter, and their second-leading scorer. He also rebounds pretty well for a Husky.
PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey don't seem to have improved much from being decent defender. Fuller leads them in steals with 1.2 per game. It's hard to believe that two seasons ago, Bey led the Pac-12 in three-point shooting. His number have gotten worse every year since them.
Koren Johnson is a nice-looking freshman guard. He and Menifield will make an excellent future pair of guards.
Noah Williams, the former scorer at WSU has been injured and is just coming back into the lineup.
CONCLUSION
This is very similar to my preview of the WSU game. UCLA is the better team. We have more talent. We are much better on offense. We are better on defense. We don't turn the ball over. We have an edge on the boards.
Unlike WSU, Washington doesn't always keep the game close. They lost games by 17 and 23. They did keep the game close against SC, before giving up a late surge and losing by 13
Before we played WSU, I thought that would be the tougher game on the road trip. I don't know if we get any other road sweeps this season. Arizona, the mountain schools and Oregon should all be tougher road trips. (We don't play at Cal this season.)
However, I think we do get this road sweep, and I don't expect it to be as excruciating as the WSU game.
Go Bruins!
They play pretty good defense and bad offense. In short, they are a typical Mike Hopkins team.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -10.0
Line: UCLA -10.5 (8.5 point favorites win 90% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 88% of the time.77-65.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-63.
KemPom: UCLA wins 86% of the time, 76-65.
| Washington | UCLA | |
| NET | 129 | 6 |
| KenPom Rank | 109 | 4 |
| Sagarin Rank | 103 | 5 |
| Torvick Rank | 121 | 4 |
| SOS | 63 | 74 |
| Record | 9-5 | 12-2 |
The computers all see the Huskies as a bit weaker than the Cougars, even though they have won more games.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-2 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
| Washington | 1-2 | 1-0 | 2-2 | 5-1 |
Washington is one of those enigma teams with two wins in the top two quads and 3 losses in the bottom two.
THey have good wins over Saint Mary's and Colorado. They have bad losses to USC, Oregon State, and Cal Baptist. The USC and Cal Baptist losses were at home.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 4-2 |
| Washington Home | 7-3 |
This will be a Quad 2 game for us, but it is close to a Quad 3.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington plays a lot of "that zone", but will play some man defense.
Washington Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 89 | 6 |
| Torvick Rank | 109 | 6 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 80 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 120 of 363 | 169 |
| FG Percent | 44% | 50% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.0% (84) | 54.7% (40) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 27.8% (21) | 37,0% (54) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 38.2% (199) | 25.9% (356) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50.4% (190) | 54.5% (50) |
| FT Percent | 71% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 32.4% (300) | 32.9% (70) |
| Assist Percent | 55.8% (283) | 48.8% (239) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 20.2% (96) | 14.3% (6) |
| Block Percent | 16.6% (5) | 5.1% (9) |
Washington's defense is not quite as good as WSU's defense, and it is a different defense. The Huskies are very good at defending the three-point shot, but not so good against the two-point shot. We don't shoot a lot of 3's, and we are very good inside the arc.
They are elite at one thing and terrible at the other. Their real strength is blocking shots, where they are one of the best in the country. We are just as good at not getting our shots blocked. This is real strength against strength. If we can avoid getting our shots blocked, we should have a good scoring game.
The real problem of Washington is their defensive board. They give up a ton of offensive rebounds. We are good on the offensive boards, so we should be able to exploit this.
Before the WSU game, I wrote, "If we have a weakness at this point, it is poor FT shooting. That could keep this game closer than it needs to be." Then we go 21 for 22. What do I know?
Both teams play around the same moderate tempo.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
This one is pretty simple. Washington’s scoring attack has been an inconsistent and chaotic mess. UW is tied for 328th in the NCAA with 10.9 assists per game, ranked 254th in three-point field goal percentage (32.3%) and 216th in points per game (70.5).
UCLA Defense | Washington Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 11 | 155 |
| Torvick Rank | 10 | 155 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 62 | 71 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 45% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.0% (108) | 49.1% (217) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.7% (69) | 32.4% (220) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 40.9% (279) | 34.5% (260) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.3% (156) | 49.3% (202) |
| FT Percent | 76.5% (31) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.7% (181) | 26.8% (239) |
| Assist Percent | 52.8% (215) | 44.2% (322) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 25.3% (11) | 19.2 (203) |
| Block Percent | 10.8% (94) | 9.8% (236) |
It's hard to find anything UW does does well on offense or even decently They don't shoot the three that well, they are almost as bad at the two. They aren't very good on the offensive boards. They turn the ball over a lot. They get a lot of their shots blocked. They don't get a lot of assists, but they aren't great one-on-one players. Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?
They are good at one thing: Shooting free throws (in spite of Meah's odd way of shooting them). But they are only average at getting to the line.
It makes you wonder how they have good wins. Saint Mary's had a terrible shooting night, and the Huskies had an unusually good night shooting against Colorado.
Advantage: Big for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
| Washington | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | -2.0 | 4.1 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
We are better on the boards, and we handle the ball better.
Advantage: UCLA
PLAYERS
Washington will go around 8 deep.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Keion Brooks F | Sr | 6'7" 320 | 5-star 24 | 12 | 34 | 17 | 6.6 | 1 | 1.3 | 42% | 26% | 0.4 | |
| Cole Bajema G | Sr | 6'7" 190 | 4-star 112 | 14 | 31 | 11 | 4.7 | 2 | 44% | 38% | 0.4 | ||
| Braxton Meah C | Jr | 7'1" 250 | 3-star 224 | 13 | 22 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | 1.5 | 67% | 0.3 | ||
| PJ Fuller II G | Sr | 6'4" 175 | 4-star 76 | 14 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 39% | 29% | 1.0 | |||
| Keyon Menifield | Fr | 6'1" 170 | 3-star 199 | 14 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 40% | 41% | 2.4 | |||
| Jamal Bey G | Sr | 6' 6" 210 | 4-star 105 | 14 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 37% | 27% | 1.5 | |||
| Koren Johnson G | Fr | 6'2" 175 | 3-star 121 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 43% | 36% | 1.0 | |||
| Noah Williams G | Sr | 6'5" 195 | 3-star 305 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 21% | --- | 0.0 | |||
| . |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Huskies have some talented players, but the players I really like aren't the 5-star and 4-star players. Their two best players may be 3-stars Braxton Meah and Keyon Meinfield.
The real star is not Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks, but Fresno transfer Braxton Meah. The 7'1" center is only averaging 9 points per game, but he is shooting shooting 67%. Add in 6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game and he is contributing a lot. This is a surprise, since he didn't show much at Fresno. But he is flourishing in Seattle. He was going to be sharing minutes with Oregon transfer Franck Kepnang, but Franck went down for the season with an ACL tear.
Keion Brooks will gets the headlines. He leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Don't let his 17 points per game impress you. He is doing that while shooting 42% and 26% from the arc. He scores a lot because he shoots a lot. Then again, he may be forced to shoot a lot, because there is no other reliable scorer for the Huskies. Like a number of Huskies, he turns the ball over a lot.
If there's another kid with star power on the roster, it's true freshman Keyon Menifield. By Coach Hopkins standards he is short, but he is quick and can score. When we are not playing the Huskies, I love watching this kid play. He has recently been put in the starting lineup, which makes sense, because he is by far their best ball-handler. At times he shows his youth with some bad shot selection, but he is dangerous from beyond the ard.
Cole Bajema may be the most improved player from last season. By Washington standards, he is a good shooter, and their second-leading scorer. He also rebounds pretty well for a Husky.
PJ Fuller and Jamal Bey don't seem to have improved much from being decent defender. Fuller leads them in steals with 1.2 per game. It's hard to believe that two seasons ago, Bey led the Pac-12 in three-point shooting. His number have gotten worse every year since them.
Koren Johnson is a nice-looking freshman guard. He and Menifield will make an excellent future pair of guards.
Noah Williams, the former scorer at WSU has been injured and is just coming back into the lineup.
CONCLUSION
This is very similar to my preview of the WSU game. UCLA is the better team. We have more talent. We are much better on offense. We are better on defense. We don't turn the ball over. We have an edge on the boards.
Unlike WSU, Washington doesn't always keep the game close. They lost games by 17 and 23. They did keep the game close against SC, before giving up a late surge and losing by 13
Before we played WSU, I thought that would be the tougher game on the road trip. I don't know if we get any other road sweeps this season. Arizona, the mountain schools and Oregon should all be tougher road trips. (We don't play at Cal this season.)
However, I think we do get this road sweep, and I don't expect it to be as excruciating as the WSU game.
Go Bruins!