Post by mhbruin on Dec 18, 2022 12:57:29 GMT -8
Coach 'Kyle Smith lost 4 starters from last year's team to graduation, the draft and transfers. He returned one full-time and one part-time starter, and brought in an undistinguished group of transfers and recruits. Yet somehow, he managed to put together a dangerous team, particularly at home. Ask Baylor and Utah.
They have done pretty well considering 8 players have missed at least one game with an injury.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -8.0
Line: UCLA -8.5 (8.5 point favorites win 82% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-62.
KemPom: UCLA wins 79% of the time, 72-63.
This computers see UCLA as a solid favorite. However, they give the Cougars around a 20% chance to win this game. That is significant. We need to take the Cougars seriously.
The Cougars have played a pretty tought schedule
WSU'S RECORD
WSU is the highest ranked 8-loss team in the country in the NET and in KenPom. They are ranked higher in the NET than any 7-loss team. Why is that?
It is two things. First, they have played a difficult schedule. Second, they are not getting blown out and are completive in their losses. They haven't lost a game by more than 11 all season. Four of their losses have been by 6 at Oregon, by 2 in OT to Utah, by 4 to UNLV, and by 6 to Baylor in Dallas.
You may think that close losses don't mean much. After all, they are still losing. However, staying close makes a team dangerous. When the game is close in the closing minutes a couple of shots going in, a weird bounce of the ball, or some bad calls can cost you the game.
Their record would be a lot better without a loss to a bad Prairie View A&M team.
The Cougars only home loss was by 2 to Utah in OT.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WSU'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays pressure defense on the ball. However, they are vulnerable to strong drives to the basket and backdoor plays.
UCLA's offense is better than WSU's defense in almost every category. This should not be a surprise, since we have an elite offense, and they have an average Power 5 defense.
Washington State's defense is good at defending the three-point shot, and most teams don't shoot a lot of them against the Cougars. That should not be a problem for us, since most of our shots are two-point shots. We shoot them well, and they are really bad at defending inside the arc.
WSU's opponents tend to score a lot on assisted baskets. We tend to score more on one-on-one play without an assist. We might want to focus a little more on passing the ball and forcing the defense to move.
We aren't a fast-paced team, but WSU plays really slow. Don't expect a high scoring game.
One area where WSU has a small edge is on their defensive board. They don't give up a lot of offensive boards. As part of their slow pace, they don't break down the floor when the ball goes up. They crash their defensive boards. We are good on the offensive boards, but we may have fewer second-chance points than usual.
There are two areas where we are pretty even, but neither of them really helps the Cougs. They don't create a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get our shots blocked much.
If we have a weakness at this point, it is poor FT shooting. That could keep this game closer than it needs to be.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WSU'S OFFENSE
Coach Smith is a big believer in analytics. He wants his team to shoot 3's and layups. His team is good at shooting 3's.
When Gueye is on the floor, they will mostly run a 1-in, 4-out offense. He will alternate between spending time at the top of the key setting screens and rolling to the hoop.
When he is on the bench they will often run 5-out.
In either case they will try to penetrate, then kick the ball out to someone else who will penetrate, etc. Their goal is to get defenders to help, opening up opportunities for other guys.
Usually KenPom and Torvick are very close on their numbers. For some reason, they diverge on WSU's offensive efficiency. I am not sure why.
As you might expect, a team that plays very slowly and isn't highly efficient on offense doesn't score a lot of points. The only teams that score less are Stanford, Oregon State, and Cal. That is not good company to be in on any statistic.
What is WSU good at on the offensive end? The Cougars are VERY good on the offensive boards. Part of this is that they shoot a lot of 3's, and this leads to a lot of long rebounds, but they are also long and good leapers. We aren't that great on our defensive boards. We REALLY need to put a body on their long-armed leapers.
They are better at three-point shooting than inside the arc, and they shoot quite a few of them. We are very good at defensing the three, so they may have even more trouble scoring.
What is WSU bad at on the offensive end? 1) Turning the ball over. They turn it over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. 2) They get a lot of shots blocked. We are pretty good at blocking them.
WSU has a low percentage of assisted baskets. They will shoot a lot off of one-on-one play.
If we rebound well, we should dominate this end of the floor.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Advantage: Mixed
PLAYERS
WSU will go 9 or 10 deep, but after Jabe Mullins, they don't get a lot of production off the bench.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Two players Coach Smith expected to play have had injury issues. Dishon Jackson is out for the year. Andrej Jakimovsk missed the first 10 games and is just getting back into shape.
So Smith been left with the second-highest recruit in WSU history, Mouhamed Gueye, and a bunch of low-ranked and unranked players. With this roster, WSU is doing well to have won 5 games. even if none of them is a quality win.
Coach Smith seems to like taller, thin guys. Other than Darling, everyone in the rotation is long, thin, quick, and a good leaper.
TJ (Don't call him "La") Bamba is their best all around offensive player and leading scorer. He has a complete offensive game. He will shoot 3's, post up, and drive straight to the rim. He doesn't do anything flashy, so you may be surprised to look up and realize he has scored a lot. If he were on the Bruins, he would be challenging Amari Bailey for minutes. He is #6 in the Pac-12 in scoring and almost certainly will make the All-Pac-12 team. (BTW, Bamba's other offers were Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, and McNeese State. Sometimes players surprise the experts.)
Jabe Mullins played for two seasons for St. Mary's before transferring to WSU, where he found a lot more PT and success in shooting. He is an outstanding 3-point shooter, hitting 48% from the arc. If he were taking enough shots, he would be #3 in the Pac-12 in three-point percent. Although Mullins no longer starts, he is really the sixth starter.
Mouhamed Gueye is a great athlete. In addition to dunks around the basket, he has a nice jump shot, and an so-so hook shot. He will shoot a three-point shot around once a game, but doesn't make most of them.
Gueye is an excellent rebounder, and will hit the offensive boards aggressively, using his leaping ability more than muscle. He is #3 in the league in rebounding and leads the league in offensive rebounds. He doesn't seem to like to bang. We should body him up.
Justin Powell is a better player than his recruiting ranking indicates. He played 28 minutes a game as a freshman at Auburn, averaging 11 points off the bench before running into concussion problems. Then he spent a year at Tennessee, where he only played 14 minutes, before finding a home in Pullman. He is the closest thing they have to a PG, although he is more of a shooting guard. He is a good 3-point shooter, and most of his shots come from distance..
DJ Rodman (Dennis' son) is a good player and probably their best defender. He is the Cougars answer to Vlade Divac. He spends more time on the floor than a college wrestler. He LOVES to take charges, so we need to be aware of him when driving into the lane. Not all of them are flops. He will also fall down when shooting a three.
Rodman's shooting has really fallen off this year, although he has been a good shooter in the past. He is an excellent rebounder for his size. After all, he is the son of Dennis Rodman.
Kymany Houinsou is from France. Houinsou has been starting lately in place of Jabe Mullin. He doesn't try to do too much, and he could turn out to be a good player.
Dylan Darling is a freshman, who played in the lowest division of basketball in the state of Washington. WSU got his commitment over Idaho State and Seattle Pacific. He plays pesky defense, but who seems very limited on offense. His only other offers were Idaho State and Seattle Pacific.
Andrej Jakimovski was a key rotation player for the Cougars last season, but he missed the first 11 games with injuries. He is just getting back into playing shape. He's a better player than his numbers indicate.
CONCLUSION
UCLA is the better team. We have a lot more talent. We are better on offense. We are better on defense. We don't turn the ball over. They do have a small edge on the boards.
On paper, this looks like a blowout. However, the game isn't played on paper. It is played in Pullman. Pullman is a sucky road trip, even though I think we travel by charter these days.
Washington State doesn't get blown out. They lose to good teams, but they keep it close.
I think we match up really well with the Cougars. I don't think I will be biting my nails much by the second half. If I were to bet, I would bet we cover the spread.
Go Bruins!
They have done pretty well considering 8 players have missed at least one game with an injury.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -8.5 (8.5 point favorites win 82% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 76% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 81% of the time.72-63.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 75-62.
KemPom: UCLA wins 79% of the time, 72-63.
| WSU | UCLA | |
| NET | 94 | 6 |
| KenPom Rank | 77 | 4 |
| Sagarin Rank | 90 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 73 | 3 |
| SOS | 44 | 76 |
| Record | 5-8 | 11-2 |
This computers see UCLA as a solid favorite. However, they give the Cougars around a 20% chance to win this game. That is significant. We need to take the Cougars seriously.
The Cougars have played a pretty tought schedule
WSU'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
| WSU | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1-0 | 4-1 |
WSU is the highest ranked 8-loss team in the country in the NET and in KenPom. They are ranked higher in the NET than any 7-loss team. Why is that?
It is two things. First, they have played a difficult schedule. Second, they are not getting blown out and are completive in their losses. They haven't lost a game by more than 11 all season. Four of their losses have been by 6 at Oregon, by 2 in OT to Utah, by 4 to UNLV, and by 6 to Baylor in Dallas.
You may think that close losses don't mean much. After all, they are still losing. However, staying close makes a team dangerous. When the game is close in the closing minutes a couple of shots going in, a weird bounce of the ball, or some bad calls can cost you the game.
Their record would be a lot better without a loss to a bad Prairie View A&M team.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 3-2 |
| WSU Home | 3-1 |
The Cougars only home loss was by 2 to Utah in OT.
This will be a Quad 2 game for us.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WSU'S DEFENSE
Washington State plays pressure defense on the ball. However, they are vulnerable to strong drives to the basket and backdoor plays.
WSU Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 70 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 92 | 5 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 69 | 80 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 319 of 363 | 169 |
| FG Percent | 44% | 50% |
| Effective FG Percent | 51.0% 207) | 54.7% (40) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.9% (120) | 37,0% (54) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 31.1% (29) | 25.9% (356) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 452.4 (254) | 54.5% (50) |
| FT Percent | 71% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 23.3% (26) | 32.9% (70) |
| Assist Percent | 49.1% (133) | 48.8% (239) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 17.2% (274) | 14.3% (6) |
| Block Percent | 6.9% (261) | 4.9% (9) |
UCLA's offense is better than WSU's defense in almost every category. This should not be a surprise, since we have an elite offense, and they have an average Power 5 defense.
Washington State's defense is good at defending the three-point shot, and most teams don't shoot a lot of them against the Cougars. That should not be a problem for us, since most of our shots are two-point shots. We shoot them well, and they are really bad at defending inside the arc.
WSU's opponents tend to score a lot on assisted baskets. We tend to score more on one-on-one play without an assist. We might want to focus a little more on passing the ball and forcing the defense to move.
We aren't a fast-paced team, but WSU plays really slow. Don't expect a high scoring game.
One area where WSU has a small edge is on their defensive board. They don't give up a lot of offensive boards. As part of their slow pace, they don't break down the floor when the ball goes up. They crash their defensive boards. We are good on the offensive boards, but we may have fewer second-chance points than usual.
There are two areas where we are pretty even, but neither of them really helps the Cougs. They don't create a lot of turnovers, and we don't turn the ball over much. They don't block a lot of shots, and we don't get our shots blocked much.
If we have a weakness at this point, it is poor FT shooting. That could keep this game closer than it needs to be.
Advantage: UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WSU'S OFFENSE
Coach Smith is a big believer in analytics. He wants his team to shoot 3's and layups. His team is good at shooting 3's.
When Gueye is on the floor, they will mostly run a 1-in, 4-out offense. He will alternate between spending time at the top of the key setting screens and rolling to the hoop.
When he is on the bench they will often run 5-out.
In either case they will try to penetrate, then kick the ball out to someone else who will penetrate, etc. Their goal is to get defenders to help, opening up opportunities for other guys.
UCLA Defense | WSU Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 11 | 90 |
| Torvick Rank | 10 | 63 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 62 | 69 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 44% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.0% (108) | 51.1% (136) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.7% (69) | 35.2% (106) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 40.9% (279) | 41.7% (85) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 49.3% (156) | 49.9% (182) |
| FT Percent | 72.4% (126) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 28.7% (181) | 33.6% (65) |
| Assist Percent | 52.8% (215) | 46.2% (288) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 25.3% (11) | 21.2 (291) |
| Block Percent | 10.8% (94) | 6.9% (261) |
Usually KenPom and Torvick are very close on their numbers. For some reason, they diverge on WSU's offensive efficiency. I am not sure why.
As you might expect, a team that plays very slowly and isn't highly efficient on offense doesn't score a lot of points. The only teams that score less are Stanford, Oregon State, and Cal. That is not good company to be in on any statistic.
What is WSU good at on the offensive end? The Cougars are VERY good on the offensive boards. Part of this is that they shoot a lot of 3's, and this leads to a lot of long rebounds, but they are also long and good leapers. We aren't that great on our defensive boards. We REALLY need to put a body on their long-armed leapers.
They are better at three-point shooting than inside the arc, and they shoot quite a few of them. We are very good at defensing the three, so they may have even more trouble scoring.
What is WSU bad at on the offensive end? 1) Turning the ball over. They turn it over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. 2) They get a lot of shots blocked. We are pretty good at blocking them.
WSU has a low percentage of assisted baskets. They will shoot a lot off of one-on-one play.
If we rebound well, we should dominate this end of the floor.
Advantage: UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
| WSU | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 6.7 | 4.1 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Advantage: Mixed
PLAYERS
WSU will go 9 or 10 deep, but after Jabe Mullins, they don't get a lot of production off the bench.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| TJ Bamba G | Jr | 6'5" 215 | Unranked | 13 | 32 | 17 | 6.0 | 2 | 45% | 42% | 37% | 0.9 | |
| Jabe Mullins G | Jr | 6' 6" 192 | Unranked | 9 | 27 | 11 | 1 | 1.2 | 45% | 48% | 65% | 0.9 | |
| Mouhamed Gueye F | So | 6' 11" 210 | 4-star 106 | 13 | 31 | 14 | 10.0 | 2 | 51% | 14% | 10% | 0.5 | |
| Justin Powell G | Jr | 6'6" 197 | 3-star 188 | 13 | 35 | 11 | 3 | 40% | 38% | 63% | 2.5 | ||
| DJ Rodman F | Sr | 6'6" 215 | 1-star 511 | 12 | 30 | 7 | 8.5 | 2 | 0.6 | 38% | 27% | 62% | 1.3 |
| Kymany Houinsou G | Fr | 6'6" 195 | Unranked | 13 | 22 | 6 | 6,4 | 2 | 49% | 33% | 21% | 0.9 | |
| Carlos Rosario F | Jr | 6'7" 190 | Unranked | 12 | 11 | 2 | 7.8 | 0 | 1.5 | 48% | 27% | 0.4 | |
| Andrej Jakimovski F | Jr | 6'7" 180 | Unranked | 2 | 15 | 2 | 6.2 | 0 | 25% | 0.0 | |||
| Dylan Darling G | Fr | 6'2" 175 | Unranked | 11 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 26% | 10% | 37% | 0.7 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Two players Coach Smith expected to play have had injury issues. Dishon Jackson is out for the year. Andrej Jakimovsk missed the first 10 games and is just getting back into shape.
So Smith been left with the second-highest recruit in WSU history, Mouhamed Gueye, and a bunch of low-ranked and unranked players. With this roster, WSU is doing well to have won 5 games. even if none of them is a quality win.
Coach Smith seems to like taller, thin guys. Other than Darling, everyone in the rotation is long, thin, quick, and a good leaper.
TJ (Don't call him "La") Bamba is their best all around offensive player and leading scorer. He has a complete offensive game. He will shoot 3's, post up, and drive straight to the rim. He doesn't do anything flashy, so you may be surprised to look up and realize he has scored a lot. If he were on the Bruins, he would be challenging Amari Bailey for minutes. He is #6 in the Pac-12 in scoring and almost certainly will make the All-Pac-12 team. (BTW, Bamba's other offers were Illinois-Chicago, Kent State, and McNeese State. Sometimes players surprise the experts.)
Jabe Mullins played for two seasons for St. Mary's before transferring to WSU, where he found a lot more PT and success in shooting. He is an outstanding 3-point shooter, hitting 48% from the arc. If he were taking enough shots, he would be #3 in the Pac-12 in three-point percent. Although Mullins no longer starts, he is really the sixth starter.
Mouhamed Gueye is a great athlete. In addition to dunks around the basket, he has a nice jump shot, and an so-so hook shot. He will shoot a three-point shot around once a game, but doesn't make most of them.
Gueye is an excellent rebounder, and will hit the offensive boards aggressively, using his leaping ability more than muscle. He is #3 in the league in rebounding and leads the league in offensive rebounds. He doesn't seem to like to bang. We should body him up.
Justin Powell is a better player than his recruiting ranking indicates. He played 28 minutes a game as a freshman at Auburn, averaging 11 points off the bench before running into concussion problems. Then he spent a year at Tennessee, where he only played 14 minutes, before finding a home in Pullman. He is the closest thing they have to a PG, although he is more of a shooting guard. He is a good 3-point shooter, and most of his shots come from distance..
DJ Rodman (Dennis' son) is a good player and probably their best defender. He is the Cougars answer to Vlade Divac. He spends more time on the floor than a college wrestler. He LOVES to take charges, so we need to be aware of him when driving into the lane. Not all of them are flops. He will also fall down when shooting a three.
Rodman's shooting has really fallen off this year, although he has been a good shooter in the past. He is an excellent rebounder for his size. After all, he is the son of Dennis Rodman.
Kymany Houinsou is from France. Houinsou has been starting lately in place of Jabe Mullin. He doesn't try to do too much, and he could turn out to be a good player.
Dylan Darling is a freshman, who played in the lowest division of basketball in the state of Washington. WSU got his commitment over Idaho State and Seattle Pacific. He plays pesky defense, but who seems very limited on offense. His only other offers were Idaho State and Seattle Pacific.
Andrej Jakimovski was a key rotation player for the Cougars last season, but he missed the first 11 games with injuries. He is just getting back into playing shape. He's a better player than his numbers indicate.
CONCLUSION
UCLA is the better team. We have a lot more talent. We are better on offense. We are better on defense. We don't turn the ball over. They do have a small edge on the boards.
On paper, this looks like a blowout. However, the game isn't played on paper. It is played in Pullman. Pullman is a sucky road trip, even though I think we travel by charter these days.
Washington State doesn't get blown out. They lose to good teams, but they keep it close.
I think we match up really well with the Cougars. I don't think I will be biting my nails much by the second half. If I were to bet, I would bet we cover the spread.
Go Bruins!