Post by mhbruin on Dec 14, 2022 21:33:57 GMT -8
We are used to seeing Kentucky loaded with young 5-star talent who win games with outstanding individual play. This is not that kind of team. We have more 5-star players in the starting lineup than they do. They play a bunch of seniors, and they are focused on defense. passing the ball for the easy shot, and not turning it over. UCLA is the team starting two 5-star freshmen, and depending on more 1-on-1 play.
However, both teams will try to play stifling defense.
METRICS
Estimated Line: UCLA -1.0
Line: UCLA -1.5 (1.5 point favorites win 54% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 52% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 69-68 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 55% of the time, 72-71.
This computers see this as a close matchup, with UCLA the slight favorites.
KENTUCKY'S RECORD
Kentucky's Quad 1 loss is at Gonzaga, where they lost by 16.
Their Quad 2 wins are over Yale by 10 and a mediocre Michigan team by 4.
Their Quad 2 loss is to Michigan State by 9.
At this point, I don't think Kentucky has a win over a tournament team.
The Bruins have a better record away from home.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS KENTUCKY'S DEFENSE
UCLA is an elite offense. Kentucky plays outstanding defense. At least inside the arc.
Kentucky will pack things in. They are outstanding at defending the two-point shot. Teams shoot a low percentage inside the arc and Kentucky blocks a lot of shots.
We shoot most of our shots from inside the arc, and we don't get a lot of shots blocked. Clearly, something has to give.
OTOH, Kentucky doesn't defend the arc all that well. We shoot the three very well, but we don't take a lot of them. We might have to shoot a few more against the Wildcats. We should be able to get open shots.
Kentucky doesn't generate a lot of turnovers. They don't pressure the ball a lot. Meanwhile, we are one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over.
We are playing a bit faster than in previous years. We are about average for the country. Kentucky plays a little bit faster, but both teams should be comfortable with the pace.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS KENTUCKY'S OFFENSE
If you believe KenPom, this part of the matchup is even, with both teams ranked #18. If you prefer Torvick, UCLA has an edge at this end of the floor. I guess I prefer Torvick.
This is not an offense that depends on one-on-one play. It depends on passing. Almost 62% of their shots come off assists. This is a very good passing team. 5 of the 9 rotation players have A/TO ratios above 1.5.
They are pretty good at not turning the ball over, but we are outstanding at generating them. This could be the factor that decides the game. If we get turnovers we seem far more likely to win.
Kentucky is a much better 3-point shooting team than Maryland. However, they don't shoot that many of them.
With Tshiebwe and Toppin up front, you might expect them to be a great shooting team inside the paint. However, they are only average.
However, they are a good offensive rebounding team, and we aren't that good at preventing offensive rebounds.
They are elite in one stat. They don't get their shots blocked. If Bona tries to block a lot of shots, I fear he will be sitting with fouls.
While I worry about Bona's fouls, there is one silver lining. Kentucky isn't that great at the FT line.
To summarized, their strengths are passing, 3-point shooting, and offensive rebounding.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
Kentucky should have a bit of an edge on the boards. Since they have the best rebounder in the country on their team, that shouldn't shock anyone. However, it is not a big edge.
Usually, we have a significant edge in assist/turnover ratio. However, Kentucky's is almost as good as ours. They have a bunch of good ball-handlers.
PLAYERS
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.63%
If you think Kentucky still depends on a bunch of one-and-done freshmen, you are behind the times. That is Duke.
Sure Kentucky has some 5-star players, but Calipari has been far more active in the transfer portal than in previous days. Tshiebwe came from West Virginia, Reeves from Louisville, Toppin from Rhode Island, Wheeler from Georgia, and Frederick from Iowa. Not only does Kentucky have a 3-star on the roster, but (GASP!) two unranked players in starting lineup. Welcome to the new age.
Kentucky goes 9 deep, and most of the players are seniors or freshmen. 4 of the five starters are seniors joined by freshman Cason Wallace.
If you don't know about Oscar Tshiebwe, I would like to welcome you back from the coma you have been in for the last 18 months. Obviously he is the reigning national player of the year and a rebounding monster. He is also a skilled offensive player around the hoop.
Antonio Reeves is a deadly 3-point shooter. He is one of those rare players who shoots a higher percent outside the arc than inside of it. He knows where is bread is buttered. 58% of his shots are threes. Clearly we don't want to ever leave him alone outside, and we should challenge him to drive the ball.
Jacob Toppin is one of those glue-guy forwards. He does everything well, but is not outstanding at anything. His shooting isn't great.
Cason Wallace is the only freshman in the staring lineup, and he is playing great. He has an outstanding 2.2 A/TO ratio, and he is shooting a terrific 52% from beyond the arc. Fortunately, he only attempts around three shots from outside the arc per game. He is also a great defender, averaging 2.4 steals per game.
Sahvir Wheeler is very effective running the team. He is #14 in the country at A/TO ratio. Tyger is #69. However, he hasn't been shooting that well.
CJ Frederick was supposed to be a deadly 3-point shooter when he came over from Iowa. He shot over 46% percent in both his seasons there. However, his shooting touch doesn't seem to have come with him from Iowa City. He does have a better A/TO ratio than Wheeler.
Ugonna Onyenso will mostly backup Tshiebwe, but he is a great shot blocker.
CONCLUSION
This is a tough game to project. Both teams are talented and led by seniors. Both teams play really good defense and are very effective on offense.
There is one big factor favoring the Wildcats. They have Oscar Tshiebwe, and we don't. Of course we have Jaimie Jacquez, and they don't. I don't know if those balance out.
We have played the tougher schedule, and we have been more competitive against good teams. The computers like us a bit more.
Don't expect a repeat of the Maryland game. Kentucky has better ball handlers and passers. They also have more of an inside game. I expect a close UCLA win, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Not that I have a farm.
Go Bruins!
However, both teams will try to play stifling defense.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -1.5 (1.5 point favorites win 54% of the time.)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 52% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 69% of the time.74-69.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 69-68 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 55% of the time, 72-71.
| Kentucky | UCLA | |
| NET | 29 | 6 |
| KenPom Rank | 6 | 4 |
| Sagarin Rank | 16 | 4 |
| Torvick Rank | 15 | 3 |
| SOS | 165 | 76 |
| Record | 7-2 | 9-2 |
This computers see this as a close matchup, with UCLA the slight favorites.
KENTUCKY'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 1-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| Kentucky | 0-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
Kentucky's Quad 1 loss is at Gonzaga, where they lost by 16.
Their Quad 2 wins are over Yale by 10 and a mediocre Michigan team by 4.
Their Quad 2 loss is to Michigan State by 9.
At this point, I don't think Kentucky has a win over a tournament team.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 2-2 |
| Kentucky Road / Neutral | 1-2 |
The Bruins have a better record away from home.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS KENTUCKY'S DEFENSE
Kentucky Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 7 | 3 |
| Torvick Rank | 21 | 2 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 82 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 125 of 358 | 145 |
| FG Percent | 38% | 50% |
| Effective FG Percent | 43.8% (19) | 55.6% (25) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31,6% (113) | 36.9% (61) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 36.0% (131) | 28.0% (341) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 41.7 (15) | 52.5% (229) |
| FT Percent | 74% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.1% (89) | 31.7% (99) |
| Assist Percent | 45.4% (65) | 50,8% (134) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19.4% (156) | 13.8% (5) |
| Block Percent | 14.7% (79) | 4.9% (13) |
UCLA is an elite offense. Kentucky plays outstanding defense. At least inside the arc.
Kentucky will pack things in. They are outstanding at defending the two-point shot. Teams shoot a low percentage inside the arc and Kentucky blocks a lot of shots.
We shoot most of our shots from inside the arc, and we don't get a lot of shots blocked. Clearly, something has to give.
OTOH, Kentucky doesn't defend the arc all that well. We shoot the three very well, but we don't take a lot of them. We might have to shoot a few more against the Wildcats. We should be able to get open shots.
Kentucky doesn't generate a lot of turnovers. They don't pressure the ball a lot. Meanwhile, we are one of the best in the country at not turning the ball over.
We are playing a bit faster than in previous years. We are about average for the country. Kentucky plays a little bit faster, but both teams should be comfortable with the pace.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS KENTUCKY'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Kentucky Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 18 | 18 |
| Torvick Rank | 16 | 35 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 81 |
| FG Percent | 43% | 47% |
| Effective FG Percent | 49.6% (163) | 53.3% (72) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.0% (84) | 39.2% (27) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 42.2% (302) | 33.0% (289) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 51.9% (199) | 50.7% (128) |
| FT Percent | 68.5% (242) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.5% (101) | 35.4% (30) |
| Assist Percent | 53.3% (227) | 61.9% (19) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 25.0% (15) | 16.8% (57) |
| Block Percent | 10.1% (118) | 4.2% (2) |
If you believe KenPom, this part of the matchup is even, with both teams ranked #18. If you prefer Torvick, UCLA has an edge at this end of the floor. I guess I prefer Torvick.
This is not an offense that depends on one-on-one play. It depends on passing. Almost 62% of their shots come off assists. This is a very good passing team. 5 of the 9 rotation players have A/TO ratios above 1.5.
They are pretty good at not turning the ball over, but we are outstanding at generating them. This could be the factor that decides the game. If we get turnovers we seem far more likely to win.
Kentucky is a much better 3-point shooting team than Maryland. However, they don't shoot that many of them.
With Tshiebwe and Toppin up front, you might expect them to be a great shooting team inside the paint. However, they are only average.
However, they are a good offensive rebounding team, and we aren't that good at preventing offensive rebounds.
They are elite in one stat. They don't get their shots blocked. If Bona tries to block a lot of shots, I fear he will be sitting with fouls.
While I worry about Bona's fouls, there is one silver lining. Kentucky isn't that great at the FT line.
To summarized, their strengths are passing, 3-point shooting, and offensive rebounding.
Advantage: Slight for UCLA
OTHER FACTORS
| Kentucky | UCLA | |
| Rebound margin | 6.5 | 3.3 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Kentucky should have a bit of an edge on the boards. Since they have the best rebounder in the country on their team, that shouldn't shock anyone. However, it is not a big edge.
Usually, we have a significant edge in assist/turnover ratio. However, Kentucky's is almost as good as ours. They have a bunch of good ball-handlers.
PLAYERS
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Oscar Tshiebwe F | Sr | 6-9, 260 | 4-star #31 | 7 | 29 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 2.2 | 59% | --- | 1.0 | |
| Antonio Reeves G | Sr | 6-5, 205 | Unranked | 9 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 43% | 48% | 58% | 1.3 |
| Jacob Toppin F | Sr | 6-9, 205 | Unranked | 9 | 28 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 42% | 17% | 18% | 1.8 | |
| Cason Wallace G | Fr | 6-4, 193 | 5-star #10 | 9 | 32 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 53% | 52% | 46% | 2.2 | |
| Sahvir Wheeler G | Sr | 5-9, 180 | 4-star #100 | 8 | 30 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 39% | 32% | 33% | 3.5 | |
| CJ Fredrick G | Sr | 6-3, 185 | 3-star #242 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 41% | 36% | 71% | 4.0 | |
| Chris Livingston F | Fr | 6-6, 220 | 5-star #12 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 46% | 36% | 34% | 0.7 | |
| Ugonna Onyenso F | Fr | 6-11, 225 | 4-star #36 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 7.4 | 63% | --- | 2.0 | |
| Daimion Collins F | So | 6-9, 210 | 5-star #16 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1.9 | 25% | --- | 0.1 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.63%
If you think Kentucky still depends on a bunch of one-and-done freshmen, you are behind the times. That is Duke.
Sure Kentucky has some 5-star players, but Calipari has been far more active in the transfer portal than in previous days. Tshiebwe came from West Virginia, Reeves from Louisville, Toppin from Rhode Island, Wheeler from Georgia, and Frederick from Iowa. Not only does Kentucky have a 3-star on the roster, but (GASP!) two unranked players in starting lineup. Welcome to the new age.
Kentucky goes 9 deep, and most of the players are seniors or freshmen. 4 of the five starters are seniors joined by freshman Cason Wallace.
If you don't know about Oscar Tshiebwe, I would like to welcome you back from the coma you have been in for the last 18 months. Obviously he is the reigning national player of the year and a rebounding monster. He is also a skilled offensive player around the hoop.
Antonio Reeves is a deadly 3-point shooter. He is one of those rare players who shoots a higher percent outside the arc than inside of it. He knows where is bread is buttered. 58% of his shots are threes. Clearly we don't want to ever leave him alone outside, and we should challenge him to drive the ball.
Jacob Toppin is one of those glue-guy forwards. He does everything well, but is not outstanding at anything. His shooting isn't great.
Cason Wallace is the only freshman in the staring lineup, and he is playing great. He has an outstanding 2.2 A/TO ratio, and he is shooting a terrific 52% from beyond the arc. Fortunately, he only attempts around three shots from outside the arc per game. He is also a great defender, averaging 2.4 steals per game.
Sahvir Wheeler is very effective running the team. He is #14 in the country at A/TO ratio. Tyger is #69. However, he hasn't been shooting that well.
CJ Frederick was supposed to be a deadly 3-point shooter when he came over from Iowa. He shot over 46% percent in both his seasons there. However, his shooting touch doesn't seem to have come with him from Iowa City. He does have a better A/TO ratio than Wheeler.
Ugonna Onyenso will mostly backup Tshiebwe, but he is a great shot blocker.
CONCLUSION
This is a tough game to project. Both teams are talented and led by seniors. Both teams play really good defense and are very effective on offense.
There is one big factor favoring the Wildcats. They have Oscar Tshiebwe, and we don't. Of course we have Jaimie Jacquez, and they don't. I don't know if those balance out.
We have played the tougher schedule, and we have been more competitive against good teams. The computers like us a bit more.
Don't expect a repeat of the Maryland game. Kentucky has better ball handlers and passers. They also have more of an inside game. I expect a close UCLA win, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Not that I have a farm.
Go Bruins!