Post by mhbruin on Dec 5, 2022 14:41:31 GMT -8
I haven't watched all the teams, so take my comments with a grain or two of salt.
Here is a look at where the Pac-12 teams stand after almost all the OOC games. I list them in the order of NET ranking.
UCLA
We are the most complete team in the league, and we are improving. A month ago, our defensive efficiency was #22. Now we are up to #11. We are getting better center play, and we now have our full roster. I don't see us losing to Illinois if we played today. I don't think it would be close.
Teams that win the national championship tend of have offensive and defensive efficiency in the top 20. Top 10 in both is elite. We are knocking on the door of elite.
The only team in the Top 10 of both is UConn. The other teams in the Top 20 of both are Houston, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama.
We are still the favorites to win the Pac-12. This is a team that could hang a banner.
Arizona
Arizona is clearly the other really good team in the Pac-12. They have two excellent wins over Tennessee and Indiana and a good win over San Diego State. Tubelis may be the best player in the Pac-12 who can't go to his right, and with Ballo they may have the best two bigs in the country.
The loss to Utah is surprising, but they shot miserably in Salt Lake City
There are potential problems for the Wildcats. First, their starting five is terrific, but after that there is only 1 good sub on the bench. They are one injury or some foul trouble away from problems.
Then there is that defensive efficiency rating. They don't defend the three very well.
Finally, there is Kriisa. If he is willing to be a facilitator, he can be a very good player. If he wants to play the hero, I think they have problems. Sometimes he makes the difficult shots. Sometimes he doesn't.
In any event, they are one of the two best teams in the league.
Utah
The biggest positive surprise in the league is Utah. I have been impressed with Coach Craig Smith since he was at Utah State. I continue to be impressed. This is not the most talented team. They have one 4-star player on the roster, but they play very well together.
Utah is the only other team in the Pac-12 that looks like a tournament team this year. Their best win by far is over Arizona. Their next best win is at Washington State.
However, they are far from a tournament lock. There is nothing bad about losses to TCU and Mississippi State , but they have losses to Sam Houston State and BYU.
Their center, Brandon Carlson, may be the best NBA prospect at center in the Pac-12. They have depth, decent talent, they play good defense, and they pass the ball well.
Right now, they look like the third best team in the league.
Arizona State
Many folks (including yours truly) might have put ASU as the third best team in the league, before they laid an egg the size of Tempe against San Francisco. They look like a clear bubble team.
This is one of those enigmas in the Pac-12. They have some good wins over Creighton, Colorado, and Michigan, although none of those teams look NCAA bound. Then the have two terrible losses to Texas Southern and USF. Losing to USF isn't terrible. Losing by 37 is.
They usually play good defense, but their offensive efficiency doesn't look like an NCAA tournament team. 42% from the field won't get it done.
They have had injuries, and they are integrating a lot of new players. Four of their top six players are transfers.
OTOH, to long-suffering ASU fans, that may sound like more Bobby Hurley excuses for underperforming. They may look at UConn and think they got the wrong Hurley.
Colorado
What do we make of a team that beats Tennessee and Texas A&M, but loses to UMass and Grambling? Who knows? Add them to the enigma pile.
It seems they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.
KJ Simpson has been terrific, leading them in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Tristan da Silva has been very good as well. Transfer J'Vonne Hadley has looked good. Then it's a bunch of OK players.
In watching them, they seem to play very good defense.
They look like a team just on the wrong side of the bubble, but they will get some good wins at home. When your campus is 5,328 feet, there's no place like home.
Oregon
Oregon is the "pretty good" team. They have a pretty good offense. They have a pretty good defense. They have a pretty good record. However, pretty good isn't going to make the NCAA tournament.
Oregon has played a tough schedule, but they have lost to the four best teams they have played. They have a decent win over Villanova, but Villanova hasn't been all that good. They have bad losses to UC Irvine and Utah Valley.
Oregon has two GREAT players in Will Richardson and freshman center Kel'el Ware (although Ware seems more interested in turning pro after the season than playing hard for the Ducks). Their other center N'Faly Dante looks very good, too. The other two starters aren't bad.
The main effect of the injuries is that they aren't deep. They really only go 6 deep and the sixth man in unheralded JUCO Brennan Risgby.
Commentators will talk about how many players are out injured, however, the injured players aren't all that special either. I don't think Keeshawn Barthelemy is the answer to their problems, even if he would provide some depth. If your big hope is the turn of Nathan Bittle and Keeshawn Barthelemy, then you are in trouble.
I expect them to miss the tournament, again.
USC
USC caught a really bad break when freshman center Ichukwu suffered heart problems that sidelined him. With him on the roster, they likely would have been a really good team. They aren't that good.
It's a bit surprising that SC isn't better. They have two outstanding players in Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis. Freshman Trey White is really good. So is sophomore Kobe Johnson. Center Joshua Morgan is have a good season. That's a very solid starting five. The problem is that things drop off quickly when they go to their bench.
USC has a one-game resume, their win over Auburn. After that their best wins are over Colorado State and BYU (who isn't good this season).
Throw in a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast and a NET ranking of 86, and they are not a tournament team right now. Neither their offensive or defensive efficiency is particularly good. They have enough talent to be a tournament team, but not the resume.
Can Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis carry them through a great conference season and get them to the tournament? It is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
However, they remain a dangerous team. If Ellis and Peterson go off on the same night, they can beat anyone.
Washington State
I think the Cougars are a little better than their 5-8 record indicates. They have lost to every good team they have played, but none of the games are blowouts and they have been very close in several of those games. It seems like they can compete with everyone. They just can't beat them. Also, there is that loss to a terrible Prarie View A&M team.
They have had some injury problems, losing Dishon Jackson for the season, and Andrej Jakimovski has just returned after missing most of the OCC schedule.
They have one breakout player in TJ Bamba, who is playing at an All-Pac-12 level, and Mouhamed Gueye is starting to play like the second-highest rated recruit in conference history, but after that they have a bunch of pretty good players.
This isn't a bad team. It just isn't a good one, either.
Stanford
Not bad. Not good. Stanford is another example of that.
Stanford was picked by some people as a tournament team this season. However, they have no wins outside Quad 4. They aren't even close to a tournament team.
So why are they a Top 65 team in KenPom? They are in every game. Their 14-point loss in Pauley is their biggest loss of the season.
They play good defense. However, their offense is pretty bad. 44% from the field and under 31% from the arc.
They have three talented players in the Jones Brothers (Spencer and Michael aren't really brothers) and Harrison Ingram. After that? A bunch of decent players.
The Cardinal aren't good, but they aren't as bad as an 0-7 in Quads 1 and 2 suggests.
Washington
Did I say Stanford's offense was bad? The Husky offensive is worse.
I'll admit it. I was taken in by the Huskies. I looked at wins over Saint Mary's and Seattle U (who is a very good team), and I was impressed. I managed to forgive a BAD loss to Cal Baptist. Then they lost to a BAD Oregon State team. Any team that loses to Oregon State or California should consider asking for some of that UCLA tax money.
They aren't a bad defensive team, and they have some good players. Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks is really good. Cole Bajema is much improved. Center Braxton Meah, who transferred from Fresno is one of the better centers in the Pac-12. (Sadly Franck Kepnang was lost to a season ending injury, which would have given them two really good centers.)
They have two really interesting freshmen guards, who are both very talented and very inconsistent. If they stay in Seattle, the Huskies are looking at a terrific backcourt in the future.
However they are still a bad offensive team, which seems to be a Mike Hopkins trademark. The only teams with worse offense in the Pac-12 are Oregon State and Cal, the worst teams in the league. Hopkins seems to recruit athletes to fit his zone, but he doesn't play enough attention to whether they can score.
I think this will be Mike Hopkins' last season squandering talent at Washington.
Oregon State
On to the really dismal part of the Pac-12.
Oregon State is fortunate to be in the same conference as California. That should keep them out of the cellar. They are the second worst Power 6 team in KenPom. That means they are below teams like Rider, Kennesaw State, and Cleveland State.
They have two decent home wins over Washington (by 1) and Seattle U. Their two worst losses are to Portland State and Portland State. (Don't ask me.)
I don't know much about their roster. Nothing has inspired me to watch a Beavers game. They have run out of Tinkles and Thompsons.
Their best player seems to be Freshman Jordan Pope who leads them in scoring and assists. 6'9" Dzmitry Ryuny is a 5th-year senior transfer from USF who leads them in rebounds, blocks, and steals.
They seem to be bad at offense and defense. KenPom predicts they will lose every remaining game, except when they host Cal. Speaking of Cal, ...
California
How bad is Cal? They have a worse NET ranking than Jackson State of the SWAC, who have a 1-12 record. They are below every team in the A-10 and C-USA.
They have one win over Texas-Arlington. (Don't try to figure out UT Arlington. They are bad, but they have a win over USF who blew out Arizona State. Just thinking about it makes my head hurt.)
California is terrible. They aren't getting blown out, but they aren't winning games. They are shooting 41% from the floor and 27% from the arc. They are #302 in the nation out of 363 teams in offense. Mike Montgomery thinks they look totally lost on offense. Who am I to argue with Mike Montgomery?
Former 5-star player Devin Askew is their best player, and they were losing with him in the lineup. He's been injured.
Somebody leads them in rebounding, steals, assists, and blocks. It doesn't really matter who. They suck. Bigtime! That's all you need to know.
CRUDE SUMMARY (Roughly in the order I expect them to finish.)
Tier 1 (Tournament Teams)
UCLA
Arizona
Tier 2 (Bubble Teams)
Utah
USC
Arizona State
Tier 3 (Best of the Rest)
Oregon
Colorado
Washington State
Washington
Stanford
Tier 4 (Bad Teams)
Oregon State
California
Go Bruins!
Here is a look at where the Pac-12 teams stand after almost all the OOC games. I list them in the order of NET ranking.
UCLA
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 6 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 11-2 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
We are the most complete team in the league, and we are improving. A month ago, our defensive efficiency was #22. Now we are up to #11. We are getting better center play, and we now have our full roster. I don't see us losing to Illinois if we played today. I don't think it would be close.
Teams that win the national championship tend of have offensive and defensive efficiency in the top 20. Top 10 in both is elite. We are knocking on the door of elite.
The only team in the Top 10 of both is UConn. The other teams in the Top 20 of both are Houston, Kansas, Texas, and Alabama.
We are still the favorites to win the Pac-12. This is a team that could hang a banner.
Arizona
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 7 | 8 | 1 | 66 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 12-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
Arizona is clearly the other really good team in the Pac-12. They have two excellent wins over Tennessee and Indiana and a good win over San Diego State. Tubelis may be the best player in the Pac-12 who can't go to his right, and with Ballo they may have the best two bigs in the country.
The loss to Utah is surprising, but they shot miserably in Salt Lake City
There are potential problems for the Wildcats. First, their starting five is terrific, but after that there is only 1 good sub on the bench. They are one injury or some foul trouble away from problems.
Then there is that defensive efficiency rating. They don't defend the three very well.
Finally, there is Kriisa. If he is willing to be a facilitator, he can be a very good player. If he wants to play the hero, I think they have problems. Sometimes he makes the difficult shots. Sometimes he doesn't.
In any event, they are one of the two best teams in the league.
Utah
The biggest positive surprise in the league is Utah. I have been impressed with Coach Craig Smith since he was at Utah State. I continue to be impressed. This is not the most talented team. They have one 4-star player on the roster, but they play very well together.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 40 | 49 | 84 | 33 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 9-4 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
Utah is the only other team in the Pac-12 that looks like a tournament team this year. Their best win by far is over Arizona. Their next best win is at Washington State.
However, they are far from a tournament lock. There is nothing bad about losses to TCU and Mississippi State , but they have losses to Sam Houston State and BYU.
Their center, Brandon Carlson, may be the best NBA prospect at center in the Pac-12. They have depth, decent talent, they play good defense, and they pass the ball well.
Right now, they look like the third best team in the league.
Arizona State
Many folks (including yours truly) might have put ASU as the third best team in the league, before they laid an egg the size of Tempe against San Francisco. They look like a clear bubble team.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 46 | 56 | 193 | 32 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 11-2 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 6-1 |
This is one of those enigmas in the Pac-12. They have some good wins over Creighton, Colorado, and Michigan, although none of those teams look NCAA bound. Then the have two terrible losses to Texas Southern and USF. Losing to USF isn't terrible. Losing by 37 is.
They usually play good defense, but their offensive efficiency doesn't look like an NCAA tournament team. 42% from the field won't get it done.
They have had injuries, and they are integrating a lot of new players. Four of their top six players are transfers.
OTOH, to long-suffering ASU fans, that may sound like more Bobby Hurley excuses for underperforming. They may look at UConn and think they got the wrong Hurley.
Colorado
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 60 | 55 | 59 | 50 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 8-5 | 1-0 | 1-3 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
What do we make of a team that beats Tennessee and Texas A&M, but loses to UMass and Grambling? Who knows? Add them to the enigma pile.
It seems they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.
KJ Simpson has been terrific, leading them in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Tristan da Silva has been very good as well. Transfer J'Vonne Hadley has looked good. Then it's a bunch of OK players.
In watching them, they seem to play very good defense.
They look like a team just on the wrong side of the bubble, but they will get some good wins at home. When your campus is 5,328 feet, there's no place like home.
Oregon
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 70 | 46 | 45 | 55 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 7-6 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
Oregon is the "pretty good" team. They have a pretty good offense. They have a pretty good defense. They have a pretty good record. However, pretty good isn't going to make the NCAA tournament.
Oregon has played a tough schedule, but they have lost to the four best teams they have played. They have a decent win over Villanova, but Villanova hasn't been all that good. They have bad losses to UC Irvine and Utah Valley.
Oregon has two GREAT players in Will Richardson and freshman center Kel'el Ware (although Ware seems more interested in turning pro after the season than playing hard for the Ducks). Their other center N'Faly Dante looks very good, too. The other two starters aren't bad.
The main effect of the injuries is that they aren't deep. They really only go 6 deep and the sixth man in unheralded JUCO Brennan Risgby.
Commentators will talk about how many players are out injured, however, the injured players aren't all that special either. I don't think Keeshawn Barthelemy is the answer to their problems, even if he would provide some depth. If your big hope is the turn of Nathan Bittle and Keeshawn Barthelemy, then you are in trouble.
I expect them to miss the tournament, again.
USC
USC caught a really bad break when freshman center Ichukwu suffered heart problems that sidelined him. With him on the roster, they likely would have been a really good team. They aren't that good.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 86 | 67 | 86 | 52 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 10-3 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 7-0 |
It's a bit surprising that SC isn't better. They have two outstanding players in Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis. Freshman Trey White is really good. So is sophomore Kobe Johnson. Center Joshua Morgan is have a good season. That's a very solid starting five. The problem is that things drop off quickly when they go to their bench.
USC has a one-game resume, their win over Auburn. After that their best wins are over Colorado State and BYU (who isn't good this season).
Throw in a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast and a NET ranking of 86, and they are not a tournament team right now. Neither their offensive or defensive efficiency is particularly good. They have enough talent to be a tournament team, but not the resume.
Can Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis carry them through a great conference season and get them to the tournament? It is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.
However, they remain a dangerous team. If Ellis and Peterson go off on the same night, they can beat anyone.
Washington State
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 94 | 77 | 90 | 70 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 5-8 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1-0 | 4-1 |
I think the Cougars are a little better than their 5-8 record indicates. They have lost to every good team they have played, but none of the games are blowouts and they have been very close in several of those games. It seems like they can compete with everyone. They just can't beat them. Also, there is that loss to a terrible Prarie View A&M team.
They have had some injury problems, losing Dishon Jackson for the season, and Andrej Jakimovski has just returned after missing most of the OCC schedule.
They have one breakout player in TJ Bamba, who is playing at an All-Pac-12 level, and Mouhamed Gueye is starting to play like the second-highest rated recruit in conference history, but after that they have a bunch of pretty good players.
This isn't a bad team. It just isn't a good one, either.
Stanford
Not bad. Not good. Stanford is another example of that.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 101 | 65 | 104 | 47 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 5-7 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5-0 |
Stanford was picked by some people as a tournament team this season. However, they have no wins outside Quad 4. They aren't even close to a tournament team.
So why are they a Top 65 team in KenPom? They are in every game. Their 14-point loss in Pauley is their biggest loss of the season.
They play good defense. However, their offense is pretty bad. 44% from the field and under 31% from the arc.
They have three talented players in the Jones Brothers (Spencer and Michael aren't really brothers) and Harrison Ingram. After that? A bunch of decent players.
The Cardinal aren't good, but they aren't as bad as an 0-7 in Quads 1 and 2 suggests.
Washington
Did I say Stanford's offense was bad? The Husky offensive is worse.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 115 | 101 | 152 | 73 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 9-4 | 1-2 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
I'll admit it. I was taken in by the Huskies. I looked at wins over Saint Mary's and Seattle U (who is a very good team), and I was impressed. I managed to forgive a BAD loss to Cal Baptist. Then they lost to a BAD Oregon State team. Any team that loses to Oregon State or California should consider asking for some of that UCLA tax money.
They aren't a bad defensive team, and they have some good players. Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks is really good. Cole Bajema is much improved. Center Braxton Meah, who transferred from Fresno is one of the better centers in the Pac-12. (Sadly Franck Kepnang was lost to a season ending injury, which would have given them two really good centers.)
They have two really interesting freshmen guards, who are both very talented and very inconsistent. If they stay in Seattle, the Huskies are looking at a terrific backcourt in the future.
However they are still a bad offensive team, which seems to be a Mike Hopkins trademark. The only teams with worse offense in the Pac-12 are Oregon State and Cal, the worst teams in the league. Hopkins seems to recruit athletes to fit his zone, but he doesn't play enough attention to whether they can score.
I think this will be Mike Hopkins' last season squandering talent at Washington.
Oregon State
On to the really dismal part of the Pac-12.
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 223 | 221 | 272 | 147 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 6-6 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 2-1 | 4-1 |
Oregon State is fortunate to be in the same conference as California. That should keep them out of the cellar. They are the second worst Power 6 team in KenPom. That means they are below teams like Rider, Kennesaw State, and Cleveland State.
They have two decent home wins over Washington (by 1) and Seattle U. Their two worst losses are to Portland State and Portland State. (Don't ask me.)
I don't know much about their roster. Nothing has inspired me to watch a Beavers game. They have run out of Tinkles and Thompsons.
Their best player seems to be Freshman Jordan Pope who leads them in scoring and assists. 6'9" Dzmitry Ryuny is a 5th-year senior transfer from USF who leads them in rebounds, blocks, and steals.
They seem to be bad at offense and defense. KenPom predicts they will lose every remaining game, except when they host Cal. Speaking of Cal, ...
California
| NET | KenPom | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency |
| 320 | 241 | 302 | 105 |
| Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | |
| 1-12 | 0-1 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 1-4 |
How bad is Cal? They have a worse NET ranking than Jackson State of the SWAC, who have a 1-12 record. They are below every team in the A-10 and C-USA.
They have one win over Texas-Arlington. (Don't try to figure out UT Arlington. They are bad, but they have a win over USF who blew out Arizona State. Just thinking about it makes my head hurt.)
California is terrible. They aren't getting blown out, but they aren't winning games. They are shooting 41% from the floor and 27% from the arc. They are #302 in the nation out of 363 teams in offense. Mike Montgomery thinks they look totally lost on offense. Who am I to argue with Mike Montgomery?
Former 5-star player Devin Askew is their best player, and they were losing with him in the lineup. He's been injured.
Somebody leads them in rebounding, steals, assists, and blocks. It doesn't really matter who. They suck. Bigtime! That's all you need to know.
CRUDE SUMMARY (Roughly in the order I expect them to finish.)
Tier 1 (Tournament Teams)
UCLA
Arizona
Tier 2 (Bubble Teams)
Utah
USC
Arizona State
Tier 3 (Best of the Rest)
Oregon
Colorado
Washington State
Washington
Stanford
Tier 4 (Bad Teams)
Oregon State
California
Go Bruins!