Post by mhbruin on Dec 2, 2022 9:46:58 GMT -8
It's a bit early too put a lot of weight on stats, bACZut that won't stop me from doing something dumb. Not much does.
I am not sure this is one of Dana Altman's best teams, in spite of having three 5-star and three 4-star players. I think they will struggle to make the tournament.
However, they are still one of the better teams in the Pac-12, and a home win over them would be big.
METRICS
The computers think this should be easier than the Stanford game, since it is at home.
Line: UCLA -10-9 (estimated)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 86% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 80-63 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 77-67, 80% (thanks to Born2BBruin)
OREGON'S RECORD
Oregon has played 4 Quad 1 games, beating Villanova, while losing to Houston, UConn, and Michigan State. The Quad 3 loss is a home loss to a pretty good Irvine team.
Stanford's home loss was to San Diego State. We have not played a true road game, yet.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon's defense isn't as good as Stanford's. They are average for a power 5 team, while we are an elite offense. Overall, this is a significant advantage for us.
However, there are some interesting factors at this end of the floor. Oregon's opponents shoot a LOT of threes. This is probably because they tend to back it in on defense. They don't generate a lot of turnovers, so they are not pressuring the ball. Also, their best defensive stat is how much they block shots. They have been daring teams to bomb away, and denying getting to the basket. This should make for an interesting game for Jaimie.
Meanwhile, UCLA doesn't take a ton of 3's. We are one of the least 3-point dependent teams in the country. So that raises the question of whether we are going to attack the teeth of their defense or take the open outside shot. We are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country. This should be an interesting game within the game.
As I mentioned, their defensive super-power is blocking shots. We don't get many shots blocked.
It is worth noting, that although we don't play that fast, we score a lot of points.
One way or another, we should have the advantage on this end of the floor.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
The top line (efficiency) indicates that we are evenly matched on this end of the floor. However, there is an important game within their offense.
They are MUCH better shooting inside the arc than at shooting 3's. Their two bigs are really good at scoring around the basket. Meanwhile, Oregon is not a good 3-point shooting team.
You might think they would not shoot a lot of threes, but over 41% of their shots are from beyond the arc. We want them to take a lot of 3's.
A lot depends on whether Oregon stays with shooting a lot of 3's . If they do, I think we win pretty easily, unless they have one of those days where everything goes in.
OTOH, if Oregon stays committed to the inside game, this could be a difficult game for us.
Oregon is a GREAT offensive rebounding team. No boards, no win.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
Oregon is very good on the boards. We really need to focus on our defensive board.
They don't have a real PG, so Richardson has to fill that role. He would probably be more comfortable off the ball.
PLAYERS
You may hear a lot about all the injuries that Oregon is dealing with, but the only really significant guys missing are Colorado transfer Keeshawn Barthelemy who was playing 26 minutes with 8 points and 2.5 rebounds and Nate Bittle and his 20 minutes, six points, and 5 rebounds.
At this point, the Ducks are basically a 5-main team. The top 3 players are really good. Guerrier is a decent Pac-12 player. The rest of the roster isn't very good.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Ducks will frequently play 2 centers, although 7-footer Ware is playing as a stretch 4.
Dante is finally healthy and living up to his lofty recruiting ranking. He is a load inside, both scoring and rebounding. We really don't have anyone to match up to his strength inside. Expect Bona to spend most of this game in foul trouble. The only good news is Dante is only 61% from the free-throw line.
The other big is Kel-El Ware who may not be Superman (Kal-El), but he is a super player. He is very skilled and athletic for a big man. Think Evan Mobley. He can score out to the 3-point line, and is also a terrific rebounder. We have no one to match up with him.
The other member of the big 3 is 5th-year senior Will Richardson. At times he looks like a lottery pick, making great passes and difficult 3-point shots. Other times, he seems to disappear. He's not shooting that well, but he ia capable of really going. He has done it to us in the past.
Guerrier is primarily dangerous from beyond the arc. We shouldn't leave him open.
Soares really isn't that good, but Altmann doesn't really have anyone else to play. right now.
Lok Wor is mostly in there to give the starters a blow, but he is dangerous from the arc.
CONCLUSION
This is not a vintage Oregon team. They will not be in contention for the Pac-12 title. However, with their two VERY good bigs they present a unique challenge for us.
This is a good game to prepare for the quality centers we are likely to face in March.
I suspect we mostly pack it in on defense, and try to get a lot of steals on their post entry passes.
Oregon will be touch in Eugene, but we should be able to score on them and keep scoring. I think we win fairly easily.
Go Bruins!
I am not sure this is one of Dana Altman's best teams, in spite of having three 5-star and three 4-star players. I think they will struggle to make the tournament.
However, they are still one of the better teams in the Pac-12, and a home win over them would be big.
METRICS
The computers think this should be easier than the Stanford game, since it is at home.
Line: UCLA -10
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 86% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 87% of the time, 77-65.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 80-63 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 77-67, 80% (thanks to Born2BBruin)
| Oregon | UCLA | |
| NET | 76 | 11 |
| KenPom Rank | 41 | 10 |
| Sagarin Rank | 38 | 9 |
| Torvick Rank | 49 | 4 |
| SOS | 25 | 141 |
| Record | 4-4 | 6-2 |
OREGON'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-2 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| Oregon | 1-3 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
Oregon has played 4 Quad 1 games, beating Villanova, while losing to Houston, UConn, and Michigan State. The Quad 3 loss is a home loss to a pretty good Irvine team.
| Oregon Road / Neutral | 1-2 |
| UCLA Home | 5-0 |
Stanford's home loss was to San Diego State. We have not played a true road game, yet.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS OREGON'S DEFENSE
Oregon Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 63 | 8 |
| Torvick Rank | 80 | 4 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 83 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 251 of 358 | 143 |
| FG Percent | 41% | 51% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.8% (150) | 57.2% (15) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34.0% (195) | 38.1% (24) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 43.9% (321) | 29.4% (335) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47.1% (109) | 56.4% (34) |
| FT Percent | 72% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.7% (106) | 32.2% (90) |
| Assist Percent | 52.9% (222) | 53.3% (128) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 18.8% (178) | 15.4% (31) |
| Block Percent | 14.7% (25) | 5.1% (19) |
Oregon's defense isn't as good as Stanford's. They are average for a power 5 team, while we are an elite offense. Overall, this is a significant advantage for us.
However, there are some interesting factors at this end of the floor. Oregon's opponents shoot a LOT of threes. This is probably because they tend to back it in on defense. They don't generate a lot of turnovers, so they are not pressuring the ball. Also, their best defensive stat is how much they block shots. They have been daring teams to bomb away, and denying getting to the basket. This should make for an interesting game for Jaimie.
Meanwhile, UCLA doesn't take a ton of 3's. We are one of the least 3-point dependent teams in the country. So that raises the question of whether we are going to attack the teeth of their defense or take the open outside shot. We are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country. This should be an interesting game within the game.
As I mentioned, their defensive super-power is blocking shots. We don't get many shots blocked.
It is worth noting, that although we don't play that fast, we score a lot of points.
One way or another, we should have the advantage on this end of the floor.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS OREGON'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Oregon Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 30 | 31 |
| Torvick Rank | 29 | 34 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 69 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 44% |
| Effective FG Percent | 48.6% (141) | 48.8% (150) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 30.1% (83) | 28.6% (323) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 43.6% (315) | 41.5% (94) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 51.2% (225) | 56.6 (41) |
| FT Percent | 63.0% (324) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 27.1% (114) | 36.7% (23) |
| Assist Percent | 54.0% (243) | 51.5% (164) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.3% (29) | 19.7% (208) |
| Block Percent | 11.0% (95) | 7.5% (104) |
The top line (efficiency) indicates that we are evenly matched on this end of the floor. However, there is an important game within their offense.
They are MUCH better shooting inside the arc than at shooting 3's. Their two bigs are really good at scoring around the basket. Meanwhile, Oregon is not a good 3-point shooting team.
You might think they would not shoot a lot of threes, but over 41% of their shots are from beyond the arc. We want them to take a lot of 3's.
A lot depends on whether Oregon stays with shooting a lot of 3's . If they do, I think we win pretty easily, unless they have one of those days where everything goes in.
OTOH, if Oregon stays committed to the inside game, this could be a difficult game for us.
Oregon is a GREAT offensive rebounding team. No boards, no win.
Advantage: Even
OTHER FACTORS
| Stanford | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 7.2 | 4.5 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
Oregon is very good on the boards. We really need to focus on our defensive board.
They don't have a real PG, so Richardson has to fill that role. He would probably be more comfortable off the ball.
PLAYERS
You may hear a lot about all the injuries that Oregon is dealing with, but the only really significant guys missing are Colorado transfer Keeshawn Barthelemy who was playing 26 minutes with 8 points and 2.5 rebounds and Nate Bittle and his 20 minutes, six points, and 5 rebounds.
At this point, the Ducks are basically a 5-main team. The top 3 players are really good. Guerrier is a decent Pac-12 player. The rest of the roster isn't very good.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| N'Faly Dante C | Sr | 6'11" 230 | 5-star 24 | 7 | 24 | 14 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 61.8% | 1.9 | 0.6 | ||
| Will Richardson G | Sr | 6'5" 180 | 4-star 42 | 8 | 35 | 14 | 5.3 | 46.6% | 30.2% | 1.6 | |||
| Kel'el Ware C | Fr | 7'0" 210 | 5-star 9 | 8 | 25 | 11 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 48.5% | 30.4% | 2.4 | 1.0 | |
| Quincy Guerrier F | Sr | 6'8" 220 | 4-star 121 | 8 | 27 | 10 | 0.6 | 37..1% | 35.1% | 0.5 | |||
| Rivaldo Soares G | Sr | 6'6" 205 | #10 Juco | 8 | 29 | 7 | 2.3 | 35.1% | 27.3% | 1.4 | |||
| Lok Wur F | Jr | 6'9" 205 | 3-star 478 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 0.5 | 33.3% | 41.9% | ||||
| Brennan Rigsby G | So | 6'3" 180 | #10 Juco | 1 | 22 | 2 | 0.0 | 25.0% | |||||
| . | |||||||||||||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Ducks will frequently play 2 centers, although 7-footer Ware is playing as a stretch 4.
Dante is finally healthy and living up to his lofty recruiting ranking. He is a load inside, both scoring and rebounding. We really don't have anyone to match up to his strength inside. Expect Bona to spend most of this game in foul trouble. The only good news is Dante is only 61% from the free-throw line.
The other big is Kel-El Ware who may not be Superman (Kal-El), but he is a super player. He is very skilled and athletic for a big man. Think Evan Mobley. He can score out to the 3-point line, and is also a terrific rebounder. We have no one to match up with him.
The other member of the big 3 is 5th-year senior Will Richardson. At times he looks like a lottery pick, making great passes and difficult 3-point shots. Other times, he seems to disappear. He's not shooting that well, but he ia capable of really going. He has done it to us in the past.
Guerrier is primarily dangerous from beyond the arc. We shouldn't leave him open.
Soares really isn't that good, but Altmann doesn't really have anyone else to play. right now.
Lok Wor is mostly in there to give the starters a blow, but he is dangerous from the arc.
CONCLUSION
This is not a vintage Oregon team. They will not be in contention for the Pac-12 title. However, with their two VERY good bigs they present a unique challenge for us.
This is a good game to prepare for the quality centers we are likely to face in March.
I suspect we mostly pack it in on defense, and try to get a lot of steals on their post entry passes.
Oregon will be touch in Eugene, but we should be able to score on them and keep scoring. I think we win fairly easily.
Go Bruins!