Post by mhbruin on Dec 1, 2022 11:26:45 GMT -8
It's a bit early too put a lot of weight on stats, but that won't stop me from doing something dumb. Not much does.
You might look at Stanford's 3-4 record and conclude they aren't very good. I think that underestimates them. Their losses are to quality teams, and no one blew them out.
We are clearly the better team, but road games are always dangerous. This is no cupcake.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -6,5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 59% of the time
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-62 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 71-66 (thanks to Born2BBruin)
STANFORD''S RECORD
Stanford has played a tough schedule including Wisconsin, San Diego State, and Memphis. They lost all those games, each by 10-12 points.
Stanford's home loss was to San Diego State. We have not played a true road game, yet.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford's strength is their defense. UCLA is even better on offense.
We are an excellent 3-point shooting team, but we don't shoot a lot of them. This is probably because we are so good at our 2-point shots.
Stanford is average at defending both the 2 and the 3.
The one thing they are exceptional at is protecting their defensive boards. They don't give up a lot of offensive rebounds. OTOH, they are one of the slower tempo teams in the country, so I don't think we need to worry too much about them fast breaking.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE
Stanford is not a very good shooting team, particularly from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. We are very good at defending the arc. If they insist on shooting a lot of 3's, this will be an easy win for us (unless they suddenly find their shot against us.)
&nb
If Jarod Haase is smart (and I think he is), he will try to get his team to shoot more two-point shots, since they shoot them better, and we don't defend them as well.
They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but we good at keeping other teams off the offensive board. This is a pretty even matchup, but we might be able to get some fast-break baskets if we push the ball.
Even better for our fast breaks, Stanford turns the ball over a lot, and we are damned good at getting turnovers. If Jaylen Clark doesn't play, we might not generate as many turnovers.
Advantage: UCLA, by a significant margin.
OTHER FACTORS
Overall, Stanford has been very good on the boards. We are good. They are better.
UCLA is #7 in the nation in A/TO ratio. We are terrific at both assists and taking care of the ball. Stanford is #268. They aren't very good. Their two primary ball handers are at 0.8, which is terrible for a PG; We have a massive advantage in ball-handling.
PLAYERS
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The first thing you might notice is that this is a pretty tall team. Until you get to the two point guards, everyone is well over 6 feet.
Harrison Ingram gets all the ink as the "star of the team, probably because he was so highly rated out of HS. He's a good college player, but I don't think Ingram is an NBA player. Spencer Jones is their best player, even if he is shooting miserably In fact, all three of their leading scorers aren't shooting very well
CONCLUSION
Stanford was considered a possible tournament team before the season.; They haven't looked like it so far this season. But as mentioned, they are probably better than their record would indicate.
This will be our first true road game, and we will see how our freshmen handle it.; Fortunately, this is Stanford, so it won't be a hostile environment.
We are clearly the better team.They turn the ball over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. They are offensively challenged.
I feel pretty good about this one.
Go Bruins!
You might look at Stanford's 3-4 record and conclude they aren't very good. I think that underestimates them. Their losses are to quality teams, and no one blew them out.
We are clearly the better team, but road games are always dangerous. This is no cupcake.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -6,5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins; 59% of the time
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 66% of the time.69-65
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-62 .
KemPom: UCLA wins 71-66 (thanks to Born2BBruin)
| Stanford | UCLA | |
| NET | 106 | 11 |
| KenPom Ran; | 65 | 12 |
| Sagarin Rank | 79 | 13 |
| Torvick Rank | 58 | 6 |
| SOS | 47 | 178 |
| Record | 3-4 | 5-2 |
STANFORD''S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 |
| Stanford | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
Stanford has played a tough schedule including Wisconsin, San Diego State, and Memphis. They lost all those games, each by 10-12 points.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 0-2 |
| Stanford Home | 2-1 |
Stanford's home loss was to San Diego State. We have not played a true road game, yet.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 40 | 8 |
| Torvick Rank | 40 | 5 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 63 | 83 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 264 of 358 | 164 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 50% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.9% (126) | 56.3% (27) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.2% (149) | 38.1% (24) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 37.6% (175) | 29.8% (329) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47.4% (134) | 55.3% (43) |
| FT Percent | 71% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 19.3% (7) | 31.9% (104) |
| Assist Percent | 48.0% (100) | 55.1% (86) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 17.8% (226) | 14.3% (15) |
| Block Percent | 11.4% (89) | 4.8% (17) |
Stanford's strength is their defense. UCLA is even better on offense.
We are an excellent 3-point shooting team, but we don't shoot a lot of them. This is probably because we are so good at our 2-point shots.
Stanford is average at defending both the 2 and the 3.
The one thing they are exceptional at is protecting their defensive boards. They don't give up a lot of offensive rebounds. OTOH, they are one of the slower tempo teams in the country, so I don't think we need to worry too much about them fast breaking.
Advantage: UCLA
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Stanford Offense | |
| nPom Rank | 22 | 105 |
| Torvick Rank | 31 | 95 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 64 | 67 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 42% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.9% (125) | 48,4% (222) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 29.6% (88) | 28.3% (317) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 42.6% (299) | 43.1% (77) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 50.4% (199) | 47.4% (134) |
| FT Percent | 68.9% (210) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 26.1% (85) | 31.0% (129) |
| Assist Percent | 52.7% (217) | 50.9% (189) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 24.1% (31) | 21.1% (266) |
| Block Percent | 11.4% (85) | 9.1% (190) |
Stanford is not a very good shooting team, particularly from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. We are very good at defending the arc. If they insist on shooting a lot of 3's, this will be an easy win for us (unless they suddenly find their shot against us.)
&nb
If Jarod Haase is smart (and I think he is), he will try to get his team to shoot more two-point shots, since they shoot them better, and we don't defend them as well.
They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but we good at keeping other teams off the offensive board. This is a pretty even matchup, but we might be able to get some fast-break baskets if we push the ball.
Even better for our fast breaks, Stanford turns the ball over a lot, and we are damned good at getting turnovers. If Jaylen Clark doesn't play, we might not generate as many turnovers.
Advantage: UCLA, by a significant margin.
OTHER FACTORS
| Stanford | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 7.9 | 4.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
Overall, Stanford has been very good on the boards. We are good. They are better.
UCLA is #7 in the nation in A/TO ratio. We are terrific at both assists and taking care of the ball. Stanford is #268. They aren't very good. Their two primary ball handers are at 0.8, which is terrible for a PG; We have a massive advantage in ball-handling.
PLAYERS
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | A/TO Ratio | |
| Spencer Jones F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-star #160 | 6 | 27 | 11 | 6 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 36% | 28% | 0.8 | |
| Harrison Ingram F | So | 6'7" | 5-star #19 | 7 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 35% | 32% | 1.2 | |
| Michael Jones G | Sr | 6'5" | Unranked | 7 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 27% | 19% | 2.3 | |
| Brandon Angel F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-star #216 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 7 | 1.0 | 48% | 27% | 0.6 | ||
| Maxime Raynaud F | So | 7'1" | Unranked | 7 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 0,7 | 1.8 | 58% | 40% | 0.6 | |
| James Keefe F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-star #339 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 67% | 0.7 | ||
| Max Murrell F | Jr | 6'9" | 4-star #120 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0.6 | 47% | 58% | 1.0 | ||
| Michael O'Connell G | Jr | 6'2" | Unranked | 7 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 1.7 | 40% | 11% | 0.8 | ||
| Isa Silva G | So | 6'4" | 4-star #44 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 1.1 | 44% | 14% | 0.8 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The first thing you might notice is that this is a pretty tall team. Until you get to the two point guards, everyone is well over 6 feet.
Harrison Ingram gets all the ink as the "star of the team, probably because he was so highly rated out of HS. He's a good college player, but I don't think Ingram is an NBA player. Spencer Jones is their best player, even if he is shooting miserably In fact, all three of their leading scorers aren't shooting very well
CONCLUSION
Stanford was considered a possible tournament team before the season.; They haven't looked like it so far this season. But as mentioned, they are probably better than their record would indicate.
This will be our first true road game, and we will see how our freshmen handle it.; Fortunately, this is Stanford, so it won't be a hostile environment.
We are clearly the better team.They turn the ball over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. They are offensively challenged.
I feel pretty good about this one.
Go Bruins!
