Post by mhbruin on Nov 29, 2022 11:37:36 GMT -8
I haven't watched all the teams, so take my comments with a grain or two of salt.
Arizona (6-0)
KenPom Rank:#10 Off Efficiency:#3 Def Efficiency:#44
Arizona is MUCH better than I thought they would be. Ballo has taken a huge leap forward and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey has turned out to be excellent.
They have good wins over San Diego State and Creighton.
I don't think they are as good as last year, but they are damned good, particularly on offense. They still have games with Indiana and Tennessee, where we will learn more.
Arizona State (6-1)
KenPom Rank:53 Off Efficiency:102 Def Efficiency: 23
This many be Bobby Hurley's best team. They have a couple of good wins over Michigan and VCU, even if Michigan is overrated.
I would say they are an NCAA tournament team, but they have a terrible loss to 1-7 Texas Southern. The Texas Southern Tigers only win is over the Sun Devils.
They are putting a lot of new players together, so they should get better. Sadly, Marcus Bagley just doesn't seem like the player he was before he got hurt.
California (0-7)
KenPom Rank:213 Off Efficiency:266 Def Efficiency: 155
California is terrible. They aren't getting blown out, but they aren't winning games. They are shooting 41% from the floor and 29% from the arc.
However, they won't go 0-20 in the Pac-12. They will have a good shooting night sometime this season.
Colorado (4-3)
KenPom Rank:68 Off Efficiency:58 Def Efficiency: 46
What do we make of a team that beats Tennessee and Texas A&M, but loses to UMass and Grambling? Who knows?
It seems they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.
KJ Simpson has been terrific, leading them in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Tristan da Silva has been very good as well. Transfer J'Vonne Hadley has looked good. Then it's a bunch of OK players.
In watching them, they seem to play very good defense.
They look like a team just on the wrong side of the bubble, but they will get some good wins at home.
Oregon (3-4)
KenPom Rank:43 Off Efficiency:29 Def Efficiency:75
Oregon has played a tough schedule and has a decent win over Villanova, but Villanova hasn't been all that good. They have a bad loss to UC Irvine.
Oregon has two GREAT players in Will Richardson and freshman center Kel'el Ware. Their other center N'Faly Dante looks very good, too. However, after that, they just aren't that good.
Commentators will talk about how many players are out injured, however, the injured players aren't all that special either.
I expect them to miss the tournament, again.
Oregon State (3-4)
KenPom Rank:240 Off Efficiency:229 Def Efficiency: 252
Oregon State is about as bad a Cal, but they have managed wins over Tulsa, Florida A&M, and Bushnell.
For some reason they have played Portland State (who are not Portland who is good) twice. They lost both times.
Stanford (3-4)
KenPom Rank:65 Off Efficiency:105 Def Efficiency: 40
Stanford is better than their 3-4 record. All four of their losses are to good teams, and they were within 10-12 points of Wisconsin, San Diego St, Memphis, and Mississippi.
They beat Florida State.
They have three good players in Spencer Jones, Harrison Ingram, and Michael Jones. (In Palo Alto, the whole town is talking 'bout the Jones boys.) Brandon Angel is pretty good. If 7-foot Maxime Renaud starts playing up to his potential, they could have a strong starting five.
I still think the Cardinal finish in the top half of the league.
UCLA (5-2)
KenPom Rank:12 Off Efficiency:8 Def Efficiency: 22
We may be the most complete team in the league. If our defense keeps improving and Amari Bailey keeps getting better, we should win the league.
USC (4-3)
KenPom Rank:63 Off Efficiency:79 Def Efficiency:54
USC caught a really bad break when freshman center Ichukwu suffered heart problems that sidelined him.
That leaves them with two NBA players, Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis, and a bunch of barely ready for primetime players.
USC has so-so wins over BYU and Vermont and a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast.
I don't think they make the tournament, but maybe Peterson can carry them.
Utah (5-2)
KenPom Rank:64 Off Efficiency:74 Def Efficiency: 60
Utah has a nice record, but no quality wins. They have losses to Mississippi State (without Ben Howland) and Sam Houston State (without Sam Houston).
I think they will be better than last season, but that isn't saying a lot.
Washington (6-1)
KenPom Rank:105 Off Efficiency:153 Def Efficiency: 73
This is the best Washington team in several years. They seem to have the best defense since Matisse Thybulle was terrorizing the Pac-12.
They have good wins over Saint Mary's and Seattle U (who is a very good team), but an inexplicable loss to Cal Baptist.
They are still a bad offensive team, which seems to be a Mike Hopkins trademark. They only seem to score well off of turnovers.
I think that will keep them on the wrong side of the tournament bubble,
Washington State (3-2)
KenPom Rank:60 Off Efficiency:65 Def Efficiency: 67
It's hard to get a handle on this team. They have only played 5 games and lost to the only quality team they played, Boise State. AND they have a loss to a terrible Prarie View A&M team.
Mouhamed Gueye will probably have a breakout year, and several other players look pretty good. But until they play a couple of decent teams. we won't know if they are any good. Well see how they do this week in Eugene and a date with Baylor looms.
CRUDE SUMMARY (Roughly in the order I expect them to finish.)
Tier 1 (Tournament Teams)
UCLA
Arizona
Tier 2 (Bubble Teams)
Arizona State
Washington
Oregon
USC
Colorado
Stanford (maybe)
Tier 3 (Best of the Rest)
Washington State
Utah
Tier 4 (Bad Teams)
Oregon State
California
Arizona (6-0)
KenPom Rank:#10 Off Efficiency:#3 Def Efficiency:#44
Arizona is MUCH better than I thought they would be. Ballo has taken a huge leap forward and Texas transfer Courtney Ramey has turned out to be excellent.
They have good wins over San Diego State and Creighton.
I don't think they are as good as last year, but they are damned good, particularly on offense. They still have games with Indiana and Tennessee, where we will learn more.
Arizona State (6-1)
KenPom Rank:53 Off Efficiency:102 Def Efficiency: 23
This many be Bobby Hurley's best team. They have a couple of good wins over Michigan and VCU, even if Michigan is overrated.
I would say they are an NCAA tournament team, but they have a terrible loss to 1-7 Texas Southern. The Texas Southern Tigers only win is over the Sun Devils.
They are putting a lot of new players together, so they should get better. Sadly, Marcus Bagley just doesn't seem like the player he was before he got hurt.
California (0-7)
KenPom Rank:213 Off Efficiency:266 Def Efficiency: 155
California is terrible. They aren't getting blown out, but they aren't winning games. They are shooting 41% from the floor and 29% from the arc.
However, they won't go 0-20 in the Pac-12. They will have a good shooting night sometime this season.
Colorado (4-3)
KenPom Rank:68 Off Efficiency:58 Def Efficiency: 46
What do we make of a team that beats Tennessee and Texas A&M, but loses to UMass and Grambling? Who knows?
It seems they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.
KJ Simpson has been terrific, leading them in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. Tristan da Silva has been very good as well. Transfer J'Vonne Hadley has looked good. Then it's a bunch of OK players.
In watching them, they seem to play very good defense.
They look like a team just on the wrong side of the bubble, but they will get some good wins at home.
Oregon (3-4)
KenPom Rank:43 Off Efficiency:29 Def Efficiency:75
Oregon has played a tough schedule and has a decent win over Villanova, but Villanova hasn't been all that good. They have a bad loss to UC Irvine.
Oregon has two GREAT players in Will Richardson and freshman center Kel'el Ware. Their other center N'Faly Dante looks very good, too. However, after that, they just aren't that good.
Commentators will talk about how many players are out injured, however, the injured players aren't all that special either.
I expect them to miss the tournament, again.
Oregon State (3-4)
KenPom Rank:240 Off Efficiency:229 Def Efficiency: 252
Oregon State is about as bad a Cal, but they have managed wins over Tulsa, Florida A&M, and Bushnell.
For some reason they have played Portland State (who are not Portland who is good) twice. They lost both times.
Stanford (3-4)
KenPom Rank:65 Off Efficiency:105 Def Efficiency: 40
Stanford is better than their 3-4 record. All four of their losses are to good teams, and they were within 10-12 points of Wisconsin, San Diego St, Memphis, and Mississippi.
They beat Florida State.
They have three good players in Spencer Jones, Harrison Ingram, and Michael Jones. (In Palo Alto, the whole town is talking 'bout the Jones boys.) Brandon Angel is pretty good. If 7-foot Maxime Renaud starts playing up to his potential, they could have a strong starting five.
I still think the Cardinal finish in the top half of the league.
UCLA (5-2)
KenPom Rank:12 Off Efficiency:8 Def Efficiency: 22
We may be the most complete team in the league. If our defense keeps improving and Amari Bailey keeps getting better, we should win the league.
USC (4-3)
KenPom Rank:63 Off Efficiency:79 Def Efficiency:54
USC caught a really bad break when freshman center Ichukwu suffered heart problems that sidelined him.
That leaves them with two NBA players, Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis, and a bunch of barely ready for primetime players.
USC has so-so wins over BYU and Vermont and a bad loss to Florida Gulf Coast.
I don't think they make the tournament, but maybe Peterson can carry them.
Utah (5-2)
KenPom Rank:64 Off Efficiency:74 Def Efficiency: 60
Utah has a nice record, but no quality wins. They have losses to Mississippi State (without Ben Howland) and Sam Houston State (without Sam Houston).
I think they will be better than last season, but that isn't saying a lot.
Washington (6-1)
KenPom Rank:105 Off Efficiency:153 Def Efficiency: 73
This is the best Washington team in several years. They seem to have the best defense since Matisse Thybulle was terrorizing the Pac-12.
They have good wins over Saint Mary's and Seattle U (who is a very good team), but an inexplicable loss to Cal Baptist.
They are still a bad offensive team, which seems to be a Mike Hopkins trademark. They only seem to score well off of turnovers.
I think that will keep them on the wrong side of the tournament bubble,
Washington State (3-2)
KenPom Rank:60 Off Efficiency:65 Def Efficiency: 67
It's hard to get a handle on this team. They have only played 5 games and lost to the only quality team they played, Boise State. AND they have a loss to a terrible Prarie View A&M team.
Mouhamed Gueye will probably have a breakout year, and several other players look pretty good. But until they play a couple of decent teams. we won't know if they are any good. Well see how they do this week in Eugene and a date with Baylor looms.
CRUDE SUMMARY (Roughly in the order I expect them to finish.)
Tier 1 (Tournament Teams)
UCLA
Arizona
Tier 2 (Bubble Teams)
Arizona State
Washington
Oregon
USC
Colorado
Stanford (maybe)
Tier 3 (Best of the Rest)
Washington State
Utah
Tier 4 (Bad Teams)
Oregon State
California