Post by mhbruin on Nov 13, 2022 14:46:09 GMT -8
D 204 vs R 211 leaves 20 races to decide control of the House. Nine of those look very likely for the current leading candidate to win: six are D and three R.
Six D likely Holds:
AK-01 & ME-02 are the ranked choice races.
CA-6, CA-9, CA-21, and CO-8.
Three R likely holds:
CA-3, CA-45, and OR-5
That brings it to D 210, and R 214. Eleven close races left…
Five of those are leaning or expected to be D wins; just one is leaning to be an R win.
Five D leans:
AZ-1 — Maricopa County race (Phoenix). Biden won in ‘20, D Hodge currently has 0.8% lead.
CA-13 — the Dem candidate Gray trails by just 84 votes, and with almost 40% left to count, has good chances.
CA-47— D Katie Porter has a 2.8% lead
CA-49 — D Levin currently leads by 4.8%
OR-6— D Salinas has a 1.8% lead
One R lean:
NY-22— the R candidate B. Williams leads by 1.6% with 97% reported
That brings it to D 215 and R 215; the five seats remaining are rated more toss-up. Whichever party wins three of these controls the House:
The Five Toss-Ups to Control the House:
AZ-6. — D Engel trails by 0.4% with 87% counted. Biden won Pima County (includes Tucson) with 59% in 2020.
CA-22 — The D candidate Salas trails by 5% with 53% of the vote counted. The Washington Post analysts predict Salas will pull it out.
CA-27 — D Smith is down 10.8% now, but… quoting the WP today: “northern Los Angeles County seat is majority Hispanic and a big target for Democrats because Biden ran up double digits here in 2020. Smith is slightly favored.”
CA-41— The R candidate Calvert has a 1.4% lead over D Rollins. Trump won the district by 1 point; chances are Calvert holds his lead.
CO-03— Lauren Boebert has a 1100 vote lead, 0.4% over Adam Frisch. How awesome would it be if the Democrats win the House because Boebert lost her race!!??
The Three Races to Watch are AZ-6, CA-22, and CA-27.
Six D likely Holds:
AK-01 & ME-02 are the ranked choice races.
CA-6, CA-9, CA-21, and CO-8.
Three R likely holds:
CA-3, CA-45, and OR-5
That brings it to D 210, and R 214. Eleven close races left…
Five of those are leaning or expected to be D wins; just one is leaning to be an R win.
Five D leans:
AZ-1 — Maricopa County race (Phoenix). Biden won in ‘20, D Hodge currently has 0.8% lead.
CA-13 — the Dem candidate Gray trails by just 84 votes, and with almost 40% left to count, has good chances.
CA-47— D Katie Porter has a 2.8% lead
CA-49 — D Levin currently leads by 4.8%
OR-6— D Salinas has a 1.8% lead
One R lean:
NY-22— the R candidate B. Williams leads by 1.6% with 97% reported
That brings it to D 215 and R 215; the five seats remaining are rated more toss-up. Whichever party wins three of these controls the House:
The Five Toss-Ups to Control the House:
AZ-6. — D Engel trails by 0.4% with 87% counted. Biden won Pima County (includes Tucson) with 59% in 2020.
CA-22 — The D candidate Salas trails by 5% with 53% of the vote counted. The Washington Post analysts predict Salas will pull it out.
CA-27 — D Smith is down 10.8% now, but… quoting the WP today: “northern Los Angeles County seat is majority Hispanic and a big target for Democrats because Biden ran up double digits here in 2020. Smith is slightly favored.”
CA-41— The R candidate Calvert has a 1.4% lead over D Rollins. Trump won the district by 1 point; chances are Calvert holds his lead.
CO-03— Lauren Boebert has a 1100 vote lead, 0.4% over Adam Frisch. How awesome would it be if the Democrats win the House because Boebert lost her race!!??
The Three Races to Watch are AZ-6, CA-22, and CA-27.