Post by mhbruin on Jul 24, 2022 11:56:52 GMT -8
CHANGES
No other team has improved their roster as much since the earlier preview. They have added three transfers and a 4-star freshman. They needed the depth, and they got it.
Cedric Henderson Jr is grad transfer from Campbell
Courtney Ramey transfers from Texas.
Mathew Lang transfers from Gonzaga.
Luke Champion transfers from Missouri Western. I imagine he will be a walk-on.
Kylan Boswell reclassifies to Class of 2022 and will join the team for this season.
Shane Nowell picks UNLV
====================
Finally, we get to the 1st-place Arizona Wildcats. Nobody predicted they would do this well last season. I predicted they would finish 7th. I was only off by 6 places.
They were an outstanding team. They went 33-4. They won the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles. They were a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, losing to Houston in the Sweet 16.
Tommy Lloyd is the second-luckiest first-year coach in America after Hubert Davis. Lloyd inherited a roster with a bunch of NBA talent. Mathurin was expected to be great. Koloko came out of nowhere.
Plus Lloyd benefitted from having 6 players who never missed a game. This included his 3 best players. I don't think any other Pac-12 had this much continuity.
On top of this, his biggest competition in the Pac-12 was beset by injuries. UCLA had only two players play every game, Myles Johnson and Jules Bernard.
I am not saying Lloyd isn't a good coach. However, I don't think we know how good he is, yet. Everything broke right for him last season. I don't think lightning will strike twice in Tucson.
GRADUATING
Kier was an important sub for them, playing every game and averaging 20 minutes. He didn't have huge numbers, but he will be missed.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
These are the guys who really will be missed.
Mathurin led Arizona in scoring. He was a lottery pick.
Dalen Terry led Arizona in A/TO ratio at 2.8 and steals. He was #11 in the country in A/TO ratio. In the Pac-12, only Tyger Campbell (#6) was better. Terry was drafted just outside the lottery and is another big loss.
Koloko was the biggest surprise in the Pac-12. He averaged 2.8 blocks per game. He led the Wildcats in rebounds and blocks while shooting 64% from the floor. He was drafted early in the second round.
The Wildcats are losing 3 guys to the draft. Overall they are losing 3 of their top 5 scorers, 3 of their 4 top rebounders, 3 of their top 5 in assists, 4 of their top 5 in steals, and their leading shot blocker.
They have a TON of production to replace. Maybe 16 tons.
BTW, all these guys were brought to Arizona by Sean Miller.
TRANSFERRING OUT
Nowell was the highest-rated recruit in last year's class, and he is leaving.
In limited minutes, Aiken shot 9 of 16 from the arc. That's 56%. It's hard to believe he hasn't found a transfer destination.
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
The Wildcats return two starters from last season, and two other rotation players.
This is a nice core of returning players, but hardly elite talent. Of the four best teams in the league, the Wildcats are the only team without a 5-star player.
They are also the only team without any 5th-year and 4th-year players. This is a relatively young team.
Tubelis will play pro ball somewhere, whether in the NBA or overseas. He is a terrific player who would likely start for any team in the Pac-12. However, he can't carry this team alone.
Krissa could be another future pro. However, he needs to be a lot more consistent. He is consistently annoying.
Pelle Larsson was Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year. He should move into the starting lineup.
Ballo and Bal could be ballers. Ballo is the big one.
Bal didn't play much considering that 47% shooting average from the arc. That is on a team where no one else shot higher than 36%.
There is one more player on scholarship, the other Tubelis.
RECRUITS
I am not sure why this recruiting class is ranked so high. Dylan Anderson is likely a good player based on his list of offers. However, he is not Top 100, and big guys are less likely to be big contributors as freshmen unless they are elite. Anderson is not ranked as an elite player.
Dylan Anderson joins the "All Pac-12 Confusing Name Team" in partnership with Dylan Andrews of UCLA.
Kylan Boswell will be a very good college player, but I would not expect it to be in his first year. Most of the kids who reclassify to enter college early have troubles adapting to college.
In short, I don't expect the two 4-star players to have an instant impact.
Tommy Lloyd seems to love recruiting overseas, and he gets guys who are unknown and unranked. He is given a lot of credit for finding these guys for Gonzaga. His success with Arizona will depend a lot on how many of these players turn out to be quality players.
Lloyd must love this roster. Arizona has 8 foreign players out of 12 scholarship players. There are Lithuanian twins Azuolas and Tautvilas Tubelis, Estonians Kerr Kriisa and Henri Veesaar, Adama Bal from France, Pelle Larsson from Sweden, Ballo from Mali, and Serbia's Filip Borovicanin.
How good are the two European freshmen? I don't know. Arizona fans had better hope Tommy Lloyd does.
TRANSFERRING IN
Although he was a 4-year starter at Texas, Courtney Ramey never shot higher than 40% from the field. His 1.3 A/TO ratio is not very good for a PG. His 1.5 career number is a bit better. Most of his numbers dropped off in his one year playing for Chris Beard. He is a good defender. He looks like the likely 5th starter for the Cats.
Cedric Henderson chose Arizona over Texas Tech and NC State. He is a good shooter, but has an 0.9 A/TO ratio. I read a story saying he is going to replace Dalen Terry. He isn't going to do that.
You might be tempted to dismiss Henderson because his numbers were generated at Campbell. The Fighting Camels didn't have a Quad 1, 2, or 3 win all year. Their best win was over Marshall, #242 in the NET. However, Campbell played in two Quad 1 games. At Duke Henderson scored 18 and at VCU he scored 20, so he has the ability to score against higher-level competition. He won't be starting, but he will provide some scoring punch off the bench.
Lang was a walk-on for 3 years at Gonzaga, before getting a scholarship for his 4th year. His only start was on senior night. He is starting grad school in Tucson, and he will provide depth during garbage time.
CONCLUSION
Arizona won't as good as they were last season. They are losing 3 players to the NBA draft: a lottery pick, another first rounder. and a high second rounder.
They have to replace 55% of their minutes and points. They have to replace 60% of their rebounds, assists, and blocks. They have to do this with only 5 returning players from last year's team.
What do they have to replace this? They bring in SEVEN new players. What do they bring in?
Can you find the talent here to replace 3 NBA players? No one else can either.
The Wildcats have some quality players. Tubelis is a beast. Kriisa looked really good at times. Pelle Larsson is an solid player. Ballo will be a good center, and Ramey will likely be the fifth starter. That is a solid starting lineup. It maybe better than solid.
After that it starts to get a bit shaky. I don't think they have much off the bench.
I think the Wildcats finish 4th, and make the NCAA tournament as around a #10 seed. Of course, I picked them to finish 7th last season. There's a reason I don't bet sports. That's the same reason you shouldn't take my predictions seriously.
No other team has improved their roster as much since the earlier preview. They have added three transfers and a 4-star freshman. They needed the depth, and they got it.
Cedric Henderson Jr is grad transfer from Campbell
Courtney Ramey transfers from Texas.
Mathew Lang transfers from Gonzaga.
Luke Champion transfers from Missouri Western. I imagine he will be a walk-on.
Kylan Boswell reclassifies to Class of 2022 and will join the team for this season.
Shane Nowell picks UNLV
====================
Finally, we get to the 1st-place Arizona Wildcats. Nobody predicted they would do this well last season. I predicted they would finish 7th. I was only off by 6 places.
They were an outstanding team. They went 33-4. They won the Pac-12 regular season and tournament titles. They were a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, losing to Houston in the Sweet 16.
Tommy Lloyd is the second-luckiest first-year coach in America after Hubert Davis. Lloyd inherited a roster with a bunch of NBA talent. Mathurin was expected to be great. Koloko came out of nowhere.
Plus Lloyd benefitted from having 6 players who never missed a game. This included his 3 best players. I don't think any other Pac-12 had this much continuity.
On top of this, his biggest competition in the Pac-12 was beset by injuries. UCLA had only two players play every game, Myles Johnson and Jules Bernard.
I am not saying Lloyd isn't a good coach. However, I don't think we know how good he is, yet. Everything broke right for him last season. I don't think lightning will strike twice in Tucson.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Justin Kier | 37 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
Kier was an important sub for them, playing every game and averaging 20 minutes. He didn't have huge numbers, but he will be missed.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Christian Koloko | 37 | 37 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 1 |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 37 | 37 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 3 |
| Dalen Terry | 37 | 37 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
These are the guys who really will be missed.
Mathurin led Arizona in scoring. He was a lottery pick.
Dalen Terry led Arizona in A/TO ratio at 2.8 and steals. He was #11 in the country in A/TO ratio. In the Pac-12, only Tyger Campbell (#6) was better. Terry was drafted just outside the lottery and is another big loss.
Koloko was the biggest surprise in the Pac-12. He averaged 2.8 blocks per game. He led the Wildcats in rebounds and blocks while shooting 64% from the floor. He was drafted early in the second round.
The Wildcats are losing 3 guys to the draft. Overall they are losing 3 of their top 5 scorers, 3 of their 4 top rebounders, 3 of their top 5 in assists, 4 of their top 5 in steals, and their leading shot blocker.
They have a TON of production to replace. Maybe 16 tons.
BTW, all these guys were brought to Arizona by Sean Miller.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Destination |
| Kim Aiken Jr. | 7 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Shane Nowell | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | UNLV |
Nowell was the highest-rated recruit in last year's class, and he is leaving.
In limited minutes, Aiken shot 9 of 16 from the arc. That's 56%. It's hard to believe he hasn't found a transfer destination.
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Azuolas Tubelis | 36 | 35 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 45% | 37% | 1.1 | So 3 | 4 | 57 |
| Kerr Kriisa | 33 | 31 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 35% | 34% | 2.2 | So 3 | 4 | 85 |
| Pelle Larsson | 37 | 2 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 48% | 36% | 1.2 | So 3 | 3 | 203 |
| Oumar Ballo | 37 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 62% | 0.6 | So 3 | 4 | 78 | |
| Adama Bal | 23 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 48% | 47% | 1.4 | So | 4 | 131 |
The Wildcats return two starters from last season, and two other rotation players.
This is a nice core of returning players, but hardly elite talent. Of the four best teams in the league, the Wildcats are the only team without a 5-star player.
They are also the only team without any 5th-year and 4th-year players. This is a relatively young team.
Tubelis will play pro ball somewhere, whether in the NBA or overseas. He is a terrific player who would likely start for any team in the Pac-12. However, he can't carry this team alone.
Krissa could be another future pro. However, he needs to be a lot more consistent. He is consistently annoying.
Pelle Larsson was Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year. He should move into the starting lineup.
Ballo and Bal could be ballers. Ballo is the big one.
Bal didn't play much considering that 47% shooting average from the arc. That is on a team where no one else shot higher than 36%.
There is one more player on scholarship, the other Tubelis.
RECRUITS
(#30 class, #3 in Pac-12)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Dylan Anderson | 7-0 215 | C | 4 | 109 | Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Gonzaga |
| Filip Borovicanin | 6-8 180 | SF | Unranked | Texas Tech, Xavier | |
| Henri Veesaar | 6-10 | C | Unranked | - No other offers - | |
| Kylan Boswell | 6-1 190 | PG | 4 | 30 | UCLA, Michigan, Oregon, Kansas |
I am not sure why this recruiting class is ranked so high. Dylan Anderson is likely a good player based on his list of offers. However, he is not Top 100, and big guys are less likely to be big contributors as freshmen unless they are elite. Anderson is not ranked as an elite player.
Dylan Anderson joins the "All Pac-12 Confusing Name Team" in partnership with Dylan Andrews of UCLA.
Kylan Boswell will be a very good college player, but I would not expect it to be in his first year. Most of the kids who reclassify to enter college early have troubles adapting to college.
In short, I don't expect the two 4-star players to have an instant impact.
Tommy Lloyd seems to love recruiting overseas, and he gets guys who are unknown and unranked. He is given a lot of credit for finding these guys for Gonzaga. His success with Arizona will depend a lot on how many of these players turn out to be quality players.
Lloyd must love this roster. Arizona has 8 foreign players out of 12 scholarship players. There are Lithuanian twins Azuolas and Tautvilas Tubelis, Estonians Kerr Kriisa and Henri Veesaar, Adama Bal from France, Pelle Larsson from Sweden, Ballo from Mali, and Serbia's Filip Borovicanin.
How good are the two European freshmen? I don't know. Arizona fans had better hope Tommy Lloyd does.
TRANSFERRING IN
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Cedric Henderson, Jr. | 6-6 190 | 29 | 29 | 34 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 50% | 38% | 0.9 | Campbell | Sr | Unranked | |
| Courtney Ramey | 6-3 185 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 40% | 35% | 1.3 | Texas | Sr 5 | 4 | 43 |
| Matthew Lang | 6-3 185 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 30% | 2.0 | Gonzaga | Sr 5 | Unranked |
Although he was a 4-year starter at Texas, Courtney Ramey never shot higher than 40% from the field. His 1.3 A/TO ratio is not very good for a PG. His 1.5 career number is a bit better. Most of his numbers dropped off in his one year playing for Chris Beard. He is a good defender. He looks like the likely 5th starter for the Cats.
Cedric Henderson chose Arizona over Texas Tech and NC State. He is a good shooter, but has an 0.9 A/TO ratio. I read a story saying he is going to replace Dalen Terry. He isn't going to do that.
You might be tempted to dismiss Henderson because his numbers were generated at Campbell. The Fighting Camels didn't have a Quad 1, 2, or 3 win all year. Their best win was over Marshall, #242 in the NET. However, Campbell played in two Quad 1 games. At Duke Henderson scored 18 and at VCU he scored 20, so he has the ability to score against higher-level competition. He won't be starting, but he will provide some scoring punch off the bench.
Lang was a walk-on for 3 years at Gonzaga, before getting a scholarship for his 4th year. His only start was on senior night. He is starting grad school in Tucson, and he will provide depth during garbage time.
CONCLUSION
Arizona won't as good as they were last season. They are losing 3 players to the NBA draft: a lottery pick, another first rounder. and a high second rounder.
They have to replace 55% of their minutes and points. They have to replace 60% of their rebounds, assists, and blocks. They have to do this with only 5 returning players from last year's team.
What do they have to replace this? They bring in SEVEN new players. What do they bring in?
- A four-year starter from Texas who doesn't shoot well and wasn't ready to turn pro after 4 years of college
- A scorer from the Campbell Camels
- A freshman center who isn't in the Top 100
- A talented freshman point guard who reclassified to go to college early
- 2 unknown eastern European players
- A Gonzaga walk-on
Can you find the talent here to replace 3 NBA players? No one else can either.
The Wildcats have some quality players. Tubelis is a beast. Kriisa looked really good at times. Pelle Larsson is an solid player. Ballo will be a good center, and Ramey will likely be the fifth starter. That is a solid starting lineup. It maybe better than solid.
After that it starts to get a bit shaky. I don't think they have much off the bench.
I think the Wildcats finish 4th, and make the NCAA tournament as around a #10 seed. Of course, I picked them to finish 7th last season. There's a reason I don't bet sports. That's the same reason you shouldn't take my predictions seriously.
----------------------
Wilner writes:
3. Arizona (2): The attrition was significant with Bennedict Mathurin, Christian Koloko and Dalen Terry off to the NBA, but there’s enough returning and incoming talent for the Wildcats to avoid a major backslide. Our projection improved last week when multi-year Texas starter Courtney Ramey picked Arizona, but the rotation remains flawed. The Wildcats shouldn’t have trouble scoring, but we’re skeptical of their ability to defend the perimeter without Mathurin and Terry, especially once March arrives.
Torvick picks them to finish 2nd.
Strengths: Texas transfer Courtney Ramey is the jewel of Arizona's offseason. Ramey is a winning player who should thrive in Tommy Lloyd's backcourt. He will embrace guarding the best perimeter player, and Ramey has always been a very reliable 3-point shooter. Campbell transfer Cedric Henderson Jr. is another strong weapon thanks to his terrific size (6-foot-6, 190 pounds) and shooting ability (career 36.7% 3-point shooter). Arizona will also get an infusion of young talent. The Wildcats dipped into Estonia to land big man Henri Veesaar who could be a star alongside top-100 center Dylan Anderson. Oh, and Class of 2023 5-star guard Kylan Boswell announced he was reclassifying and will join Arizona's loaded backcourt this upcoming season.
Weaknesses: Selfishly, Arizona probably would've liked to get Dalen Terry back for a third season, but once the long, athletic wing got in front of NBA evaluators, he rose up the draft boards and became the Chicago Bulls' first-round pick. It's hard to stay at an elite level after losing three NBA Draft picks (Terry, Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko), but Arizona's offseason moves made a lot of sense. The Wildcats are positioned to be a major player in the Pac-12, but it needs more consistency from Kerr Kriisa and Azuolas Tubelis.
Wilner writes:
3. Arizona (2): The attrition was significant with Bennedict Mathurin, Christian Koloko and Dalen Terry off to the NBA, but there’s enough returning and incoming talent for the Wildcats to avoid a major backslide. Our projection improved last week when multi-year Texas starter Courtney Ramey picked Arizona, but the rotation remains flawed. The Wildcats shouldn’t have trouble scoring, but we’re skeptical of their ability to defend the perimeter without Mathurin and Terry, especially once March arrives.
Torvick picks them to finish 2nd.
Strengths: Texas transfer Courtney Ramey is the jewel of Arizona's offseason. Ramey is a winning player who should thrive in Tommy Lloyd's backcourt. He will embrace guarding the best perimeter player, and Ramey has always been a very reliable 3-point shooter. Campbell transfer Cedric Henderson Jr. is another strong weapon thanks to his terrific size (6-foot-6, 190 pounds) and shooting ability (career 36.7% 3-point shooter). Arizona will also get an infusion of young talent. The Wildcats dipped into Estonia to land big man Henri Veesaar who could be a star alongside top-100 center Dylan Anderson. Oh, and Class of 2023 5-star guard Kylan Boswell announced he was reclassifying and will join Arizona's loaded backcourt this upcoming season.
Weaknesses: Selfishly, Arizona probably would've liked to get Dalen Terry back for a third season, but once the long, athletic wing got in front of NBA evaluators, he rose up the draft boards and became the Chicago Bulls' first-round pick. It's hard to stay at an elite level after losing three NBA Draft picks (Terry, Bennedict Mathurin and Christian Koloko), but Arizona's offseason moves made a lot of sense. The Wildcats are positioned to be a major player in the Pac-12, but it needs more consistency from Kerr Kriisa and Azuolas Tubelis.
