Post by mhbruin on Jul 11, 2022 8:25:25 GMT -8
CHANGES
Mouhamed Gueye leaves transfer portal and returns to WSU.
Justin Powell transfers from Tennessee.
Mael Crespin commits
---------------------------------
Next are the 5th-7th place Washington State Cougars. I thought the would be a tournament team last season. They improved a lot on their 10th-place finish in 2020. They followed a 14-13 season with a 22-15 year. However, they lost a lot of close games. They could have been a contender. (Instead of a bum with a one-way ticket to Palooka-Ville.)
If most of that team returned, you might expect them to build on that success. Unfortunately for Cougar fans, players are headed for the exits, including most of the starting lineup and most of the scoring. Coach Kyle Smith plays a lot of guys, so he still has experienced players, but he still has a lot of rebuilding to do.
GRADUATING
Flowers led WSU in scoring, assists, and A/TO ratio.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
Efe Abogidi led the Cougs in rebounds and blocks. He is extremely athletic with a lot of upside. He is a big loss for the Cougars.
TRANSFERRING OUT
The Cougars are losing their top 4 scorers, their top rebounder, their top 3 assist guys, their top 4 at steals, and their best shot blocker.
The players who are leaving made up 66% of their starts last season.
Roberts was their second-leading scorer, but he probably took too many difficult shots.
I thought Noah Williams would be All-Pac-12 last year, but he had a disappointing season and finished the year coming off the bench.
Each of these players was a little disappointing, but overall the loss of all of them is pretty devastating.
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
On the other hand, the Cougars return 5 players, each of whom started at least occasionally last season. This is likely their starting lineup in the coming season.
The big news is the return of Mouhamed Gueye. He was the second highest-rated recruit in WSU history, behind only Klay Thompson. He considered transferring, but decided to return to Pullman. ("Return to Pullman" sounds like a horror film to me.) His return is a big boost to the Cougars chances.
The Cougars return 5 rotation players. This isn't a terrible core of players. I think each of them is a good player.
Other than Gueye, this isn't exactly a scary team. They are all decent players. However, they are not great outside shooters. There is no one with a great A/TO ratio.
With only 5 returning players, the bench is going to have to be made up of newcomers. Have they brought in a bunch of talent? Spoiler alert: No.
RECRUITS
(#77 class, #9 in Pac-12)
I don't think this class provides the talent they need.
Based on the other teams offering, it looks like the Diongue and Ominu might be pretty good. Duibgue could be very good. His is more highly ranked than Gueye was.
However, this is probably not the influx of talent they were needing for two reasons.
First, three of these players are centers. Of their 4 returning players, one is also a center. That means of that of the 8 players we have seen so far, 4 of them are centers. That leaves 4 players for 4 other spots on the floor. Unless they want to play two centers, that isn't a ton of depth.
Crespin is from France. Foreign players are often an unknown quantity. Randy Bennett of St. Mary's has been good at finding foreign players, so his offer is a positive indication that Mael can play.
(#79 transfer class, #6 in Pac-12)
Did they get the influx of talent they needed from the portal? Nope!
They got a bench player from Saint Mary's who scored 3 points per game and had 11 assists in 34 games. And they got a bench player who never lived up to his hype coming out of high school.
Powell is on his 3rd school and will be in his 3rd season. He was projected as an NBA draft pick after an impressive start to his freshman season at Auburn, where he averaged 11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 28 minutes per game while shooting 44% from 3. Powell's freshman season with the Tigers was cut short by a concussion, after which he elected to transfer to Tennessee.
Powell's role was reduced dramatically with the Vols, as he came off the bench and played only 14 minutes per game, averaging 3.7 points while shooting 38% from 3. Powell says the opportunity to be a focal point of the offense was a major consideration in his decision to commit to Washington State.
"Focal point of the offense" sounds like a selfish player to me. His so-so 1.7 A/TO ratio is better than anyone else on WSU's roster.
Powell will need a waiver from the NCAA to play next season.
CONCLUSION
Mouhamed Gueye leaves transfer portal and returns to WSU.
Justin Powell transfers from Tennessee.
Mael Crespin commits
---------------------------------
Next are the 5th-7th place Washington State Cougars. I thought the would be a tournament team last season. They improved a lot on their 10th-place finish in 2020. They followed a 14-13 season with a 22-15 year. However, they lost a lot of close games. They could have been a contender. (Instead of a bum with a one-way ticket to Palooka-Ville.)
If most of that team returned, you might expect them to build on that success. Unfortunately for Cougar fans, players are headed for the exits, including most of the starting lineup and most of the scoring. Coach Kyle Smith plays a lot of guys, so he still has experienced players, but he still has a lot of rebuilding to do.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Michael Flowers | 37 | 37 | 33 | 14 | 3 | 3 |
Flowers led WSU in scoring, assists, and A/TO ratio.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Efe Abogidi | 37 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 1 |
Efe Abogidi led the Cougs in rebounds and blocks. He is extremely athletic with a lot of upside. He is a big loss for the Cougars.
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Destination |
| Jefferson Koulibaly | 16 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | SMU |
| Ryan Rapp | 16 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Hawaii |
| Tyrell Roberts | 36 | 31 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 2 | San Francisco |
| Noah Williams | 35 | 25 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 2 | Washington |
The Cougars are losing their top 4 scorers, their top rebounder, their top 3 assist guys, their top 4 at steals, and their best shot blocker.
The players who are leaving made up 66% of their starts last season.
Roberts was their second-leading scorer, but he probably took too many difficult shots.
I thought Noah Williams would be All-Pac-12 last year, but he had a disappointing season and finished the year coming off the bench.
Each of these players was a little disappointing, but overall the loss of all of them is pretty devastating.
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 35 | 33 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 49% | 28% | 0.5 | So | 4 | 106 |
| T J Bamba | 32 | 16 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 38% | 36% | 0.6 | So 3 | Unranked | |
| Dishon Jackson | 25 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 55% | 0.5 | So 3 | 3 | 188 | |
| Andrej Jakimovski | 37 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 39% | 38% | 0.9 | So 3 | 3 | 141 |
| D. J Rodman | 35 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 42% | 28% | 1.5 | Jr 4 | 1 | 511 |
On the other hand, the Cougars return 5 players, each of whom started at least occasionally last season. This is likely their starting lineup in the coming season.
The big news is the return of Mouhamed Gueye. He was the second highest-rated recruit in WSU history, behind only Klay Thompson. He considered transferring, but decided to return to Pullman. ("Return to Pullman" sounds like a horror film to me.) His return is a big boost to the Cougars chances.
The Cougars return 5 rotation players. This isn't a terrible core of players. I think each of them is a good player.
Other than Gueye, this isn't exactly a scary team. They are all decent players. However, they are not great outside shooters. There is no one with a great A/TO ratio.
With only 5 returning players, the bench is going to have to be made up of newcomers. Have they brought in a bunch of talent? Spoiler alert: No.
RECRUITS
(#77 class, #9 in Pac-12)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Adrame Diongue | 7-0 185 | C | 4 | 79 | Kansas, Illinois, Texas Tech, ASU |
| Dylan Darling | 6-2 175 | CG | Unranked | Idaho St, Seattle Pacific, Montana State | |
| Solomon Ominu | 6-10 230 | C | Unranked | Memphis, Oklahoma | |
| Mael Crespin | 6-9 235 | C | Unranked | BYU, Oregon St, St. Mary's |
I don't think this class provides the talent they need.
Based on the other teams offering, it looks like the Diongue and Ominu might be pretty good. Duibgue could be very good. His is more highly ranked than Gueye was.
However, this is probably not the influx of talent they were needing for two reasons.
First, three of these players are centers. Of their 4 returning players, one is also a center. That means of that of the 8 players we have seen so far, 4 of them are centers. That leaves 4 players for 4 other spots on the floor. Unless they want to play two centers, that isn't a ton of depth.
Crespin is from France. Foreign players are often an unknown quantity. Randy Bennett of St. Mary's has been good at finding foreign players, so his offer is a positive indication that Mael can play.
TRANSFERRING IN
(#79 transfer class, #6 in Pac-12)
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | A/TO | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Jabe Mullins | 6-6 195 | 34 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 41% | 37% | 1.6 | Saint Mary's | So 3 | Unranked | |
| Justin Powell | 6-6 197 | 30 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 39% | 38% | 1.5 | Tennessee | So 3 | 3 | 188 |
Did they get the influx of talent they needed from the portal? Nope!
They got a bench player from Saint Mary's who scored 3 points per game and had 11 assists in 34 games. And they got a bench player who never lived up to his hype coming out of high school.
Powell is on his 3rd school and will be in his 3rd season. He was projected as an NBA draft pick after an impressive start to his freshman season at Auburn, where he averaged 11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 28 minutes per game while shooting 44% from 3. Powell's freshman season with the Tigers was cut short by a concussion, after which he elected to transfer to Tennessee.
Powell's role was reduced dramatically with the Vols, as he came off the bench and played only 14 minutes per game, averaging 3.7 points while shooting 38% from 3. Powell says the opportunity to be a focal point of the offense was a major consideration in his decision to commit to Washington State.
"Focal point of the offense" sounds like a selfish player to me. His so-so 1.7 A/TO ratio is better than anyone else on WSU's roster.
Powell will need a waiver from the NCAA to play next season.
CONCLUSION
WSU returns 44% of their minutes, and 50% of their rebounds. So far, so good.
HOWEVER, they only return 39% of their points and 26% of their assists. Only Oregon State returns a smaller portion of their assists. Only Oregon State and Washington return a smaller part of their scoring. They aren't brining back much offense. And they weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut last season. They were only #82 in offensive efficiency.
There is another problem with their roster. They have no seniors and only one junior. That is the fewest upperclassmen in the league.
And there is yet another problem. They return 5 experienced guys who will likely be the starting lineup. What about the bench? They will need to depend on freshmen and one or two guys who spent a lot of last season on the bench for other teams.
Is there any reason for optimism in Pullman? How about coaching? Here is KenPom data for the three years that Coach Smith has been in Pullman and for the year before he arrived. He took over a team ranked #284 in defense. Starting in his second season, his teams have been in the Top 30 in the nation in defense. The man can coach defense. His team's Kenpom rank has improved every season.
I don't love this roster, but in a weak Pac-12, I think Coach Smith will put together a competitive team. I expect them to start the season a bit slow, but finish pretty well. Pencil them in for a 6th-place or 7th-place finish. I expect great defense, but shaky offense. Not as bad as the Washington Husky offense. Scoring in the Evergreen State may be hard to find.
Wilner writes:
9. Washington State (6): Our outlook for the Cougars has deteriorated substantially following a spring exodus. The list of departed players features Williams (transfer), guards Tyrell Roberts (transfer) and Michael Flowers (eligibility) and big man Efe Abogidi (G League). They combined for 43 points per game — more than half the team’s average. It could have been much worse, but big man Mouhamed Gueye opted to return. If point guard Justin Powell (from Tennessee) is eligible, he will help immediately.
In our view, Gueye’s return solidifies the Cougars as a mid-level finisher in the conference race next season, along with the likes of Colorado and Stanford but behind the four favorites: UCLA, USC, Oregon and Arizona.
While the frontline looks solid, WSU seemingly lacks the backcourt skill and depth to push for a top-tier spot — at least right now.
Torvick picks them to finish 7th.
......................
247 writes:
Strengths: Getting elite big man Mouhamed Gueye back for Year 2 was a clutch victory for the Washington State coaching staff. So was adding ex-Tennessee and Auburn guard Justin Powell. Washington State has a pattern of finding elite big men, and four-star center Adrame Diongue could be the next one up. A Diongue-Gueye Twin Towers could be tantalizing for the Cougars.
Weaknesses: It's just really weird when so many guys opt to leave when the arrow seemed pointing up for Washington State. Efe Abogidi was one of the best available transfers, but he opted to go to the G-League and pursue a professional career. That certainly lessens the sting a tad. But Tyrell Roberts transferred to San Francisco and Noah Williams left for rival Washington when Washington State had a lot of opportunities left in the backcourt.
HOWEVER, they only return 39% of their points and 26% of their assists. Only Oregon State returns a smaller portion of their assists. Only Oregon State and Washington return a smaller part of their scoring. They aren't brining back much offense. And they weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut last season. They were only #82 in offensive efficiency.
There is another problem with their roster. They have no seniors and only one junior. That is the fewest upperclassmen in the league.
And there is yet another problem. They return 5 experienced guys who will likely be the starting lineup. What about the bench? They will need to depend on freshmen and one or two guys who spent a lot of last season on the bench for other teams.
Is there any reason for optimism in Pullman? How about coaching? Here is KenPom data for the three years that Coach Smith has been in Pullman and for the year before he arrived. He took over a team ranked #284 in defense. Starting in his second season, his teams have been in the Top 30 in the nation in defense. The man can coach defense. His team's Kenpom rank has improved every season.
| Offensive Efficiency | Defensive Efficiency | KenPom Rank | |
| 2018 - 19 | 140 | 284 | 207 |
| 2019 - 20 | 182 | 83 | 127 |
| 2020 - 21 | 167 | 24 | 78 |
| 2021 - 22 | 82 | 28 | 44 |
I don't love this roster, but in a weak Pac-12, I think Coach Smith will put together a competitive team. I expect them to start the season a bit slow, but finish pretty well. Pencil them in for a 6th-place or 7th-place finish. I expect great defense, but shaky offense. Not as bad as the Washington Husky offense. Scoring in the Evergreen State may be hard to find.
Wilner writes:
9. Washington State (6): Our outlook for the Cougars has deteriorated substantially following a spring exodus. The list of departed players features Williams (transfer), guards Tyrell Roberts (transfer) and Michael Flowers (eligibility) and big man Efe Abogidi (G League). They combined for 43 points per game — more than half the team’s average. It could have been much worse, but big man Mouhamed Gueye opted to return. If point guard Justin Powell (from Tennessee) is eligible, he will help immediately.
In our view, Gueye’s return solidifies the Cougars as a mid-level finisher in the conference race next season, along with the likes of Colorado and Stanford but behind the four favorites: UCLA, USC, Oregon and Arizona.
While the frontline looks solid, WSU seemingly lacks the backcourt skill and depth to push for a top-tier spot — at least right now.
Torvick picks them to finish 7th.
......................
247 writes:
Strengths: Getting elite big man Mouhamed Gueye back for Year 2 was a clutch victory for the Washington State coaching staff. So was adding ex-Tennessee and Auburn guard Justin Powell. Washington State has a pattern of finding elite big men, and four-star center Adrame Diongue could be the next one up. A Diongue-Gueye Twin Towers could be tantalizing for the Cougars.
Weaknesses: It's just really weird when so many guys opt to leave when the arrow seemed pointing up for Washington State. Efe Abogidi was one of the best available transfers, but he opted to go to the G-League and pursue a professional career. That certainly lessens the sting a tad. But Tyrell Roberts transferred to San Francisco and Noah Williams left for rival Washington when Washington State had a lot of opportunities left in the backcourt.