Post by mhbruin on Jul 5, 2022 13:12:25 GMT -8
CHANGES
Keion Brooks transfers from Kentucky
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Next are the 5th-7th place Washington Huskies. The surprising emergence of Terrell Brown Jr. provided enough offense to save Mike Hopkins' job -- at least for one more season.
Here is Mike Hopkins record in Seattle.
As you can see Mike Hopkins' teams are the picture of consistently. They are consistently not very good on offense.
Last season, despite a decent conference finish, Washington was not a very good team, particularly early in the season. Their two best wins were over Washington State and San Diego State, but they had losses to Northern Illinois, Winthrop, Nevada, and Utah Valley.
In spite of Terrell Brown's efforts and Mike Hopkins bringing in new assistants, the Huskies continued their record of offensive futility. Here are a few of their national rankings:
That is terrible offense.
They didn't offset this by being a defensive juggernaut. They were #103 in defensive efficiency.
It's hard to see that Mike Hopkins job is particularly secure going into this season. He barely saved his job last season.
GRADUATING
Brown burst on to the scene to lead the Pac-12 in scoring and steals after a mediocre season in Tucson. He also led the Huskies in assists. He managed to lead the league in scoring, in spite of only shooting 2 three-point shots per game and 20% from the arc. He also led the team in A/TO ratio. He carried the team.
Nate Roberts could have returned for a fifth year, but chose not to. They will miss his 8 rebounds. He also led the team in blocks. He had some talent, it never seemed to quite gel offensively.
Between the two, the Huskies lose their team leader in scoring, rebound, assists, steals, and blocks. That just about covers everything.
Daejon Davis came over from Stanford, where he never quite seemed to realize his potential. He kept not realizing his potential in Seattle. However, he was their second best ball-handler. With the departure of Brown and Davis, the Huskies lose everyone on the team with an A/TO ratio above 1.0.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
TRANSFERRING OUT
Emmit Mathews is following the Both Gach model. After 3 seasons at West Virginia, he transferred to Washington. I guess he missed Morgantown, because he is on his way back to West Virginia for his last season. He will need a waiver from the NCAA to play next season.
Mathews is a significant loss. He was their 2nd leading scorer, and looked like a good all-around player.
This offensively-challenged team loses their two leading scorers. Yikes!
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
The returning roster is a mess. First I would direct your attention to the A/TO column. There is NOBODY returning who shows the slightest hint of being a good ball-handler.
They are only returning one starter and only three players who played over 10 minutes per game.
They weren't great at scoring. They aren't returning anyone who shot that well except for 7'5" Riley Sorn, who shot 18 times all last season. The behemoth can dunk the ball.
Jamal Bey is their leading returning scorer. Two years ago, he led the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting, hitting over 50%. Last season, he lost his touch. For the Huskies to have a chance of scoring much this season, he will have to find it again.
They rest of the Huskies are a bunch of guys with potential, who haven't produced a lot. To be a decent team, they will need several guys to take a big leap forward.
RECRUITS
(#49 class, #5 in Pac-12)
It's hard to see this recruiting class providing much of what they need. Most of the time a bunch of 3-star players aren't going to be instant impact players.
Given their lack of a quality PG, they would love it if Menifield turned out to be good, but it seems unlikely.
Washington fans see Oregon and Washington State as their biggest rivals. It's a bit unusual for them to get transfers from each. It would be like UCLA getting basketball transfers from Arizona and USC.
These guys look like MHKGs. Mike Hopkins Kind of Guys. Tall and long. They will all a good fit for his zone. The question is whether they are going to help with his offensive woes.
With Sorn, that have three BIG, BIG men. Kepnang looked like a quality center at Oregon. In addition to being an inside threat, he blocked 1.2 shots per game. In limited minutes, Meah had 0.4 blocks per game.
Clearly the jewel of this class is Keion Brook, an experienced full-time starter for Kentucky with a 5-star pedigree. Husky fans may worry about his poor 3-point shooting. However only around 10% of his shots for Kentucky were from behind the arc, less than one per game.
Husky fans may also worry about Noah Williams' 3-point shooting. He never was a great shooter for WSU, but after a decent second season, his numbers really fell off in his third season. Maybe his lost shooting stroke is in the same place as Jamal Bey's. If anyone knows where the ability to shoot goes, when a player can't find it, please call Mike Hopkins.
Is he the answer to their ball-handling woes? Williams had a 1.2 A/TO ratio at WSU. That's a poor number, but it still makes him the leading candidate for Husky PG. This is not the answer for a team that can't score.
CONCLUSION
Keion Brooks transfers from Kentucky
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Next are the 5th-7th place Washington Huskies. The surprising emergence of Terrell Brown Jr. provided enough offense to save Mike Hopkins' job -- at least for one more season.
Here is Mike Hopkins record in Seattle.
| Record | Conference Finish | Post Season | KenPom Offensive Efficiency | |
| 2017-18 | 21-13 | T-6th | NIT | 140 |
| 2018-19 | 27-9 | 1st | NCAA Round of 32 | 110 |
| 2019-20 | 15-17 | 12th | 112 | |
| 2020-21 | 5-21 | 11th | 135 | |
| 2021-22 | 17-15 | T-5th | 158 |
As you can see Mike Hopkins' teams are the picture of consistently. They are consistently not very good on offense.
Last season, despite a decent conference finish, Washington was not a very good team, particularly early in the season. Their two best wins were over Washington State and San Diego State, but they had losses to Northern Illinois, Winthrop, Nevada, and Utah Valley.
In spite of Terrell Brown's efforts and Mike Hopkins bringing in new assistants, the Huskies continued their record of offensive futility. Here are a few of their national rankings:
| Effective FG % | #317 out of 358 teams |
| 3-Point Percent | #289 |
| 2-Poinr Percent | #313 |
| Assist Rate | #347 |
That is terrible offense.
They didn't offset this by being a defensive juggernaut. They were #103 in defensive efficiency.
It's hard to see that Mike Hopkins job is particularly secure going into this season. He barely saved his job last season.
GRADUATING
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists |
| Terrell Brown Jr. | 32 | 32 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 4 |
| Nate Roberts | 32 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Daejon Davis | 26 | 24 | 29 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Brown burst on to the scene to lead the Pac-12 in scoring and steals after a mediocre season in Tucson. He also led the Huskies in assists. He managed to lead the league in scoring, in spite of only shooting 2 three-point shots per game and 20% from the arc. He also led the team in A/TO ratio. He carried the team.
Nate Roberts could have returned for a fifth year, but chose not to. They will miss his 8 rebounds. He also led the team in blocks. He had some talent, it never seemed to quite gel offensively.
Between the two, the Huskies lose their team leader in scoring, rebound, assists, steals, and blocks. That just about covers everything.
Daejon Davis came over from Stanford, where he never quite seemed to realize his potential. He kept not realizing his potential in Seattle. However, he was their second best ball-handler. With the departure of Brown and Davis, the Huskies lose everyone on the team with an A/TO ratio above 1.0.
IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Can Return? |
| None |
TRANSFERRING OUT
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Destination |
| Emmit Mathews Jr | 31 | 31 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 1 | West Virginia |
Emmit Mathews is following the Both Gach model. After 3 seasons at West Virginia, he transferred to Washington. I guess he missed Morgantown, because he is on his way back to West Virginia for his last season. He will need a waiver from the NCAA to play next season.
Mathews is a significant loss. He was their 2nd leading scorer, and looked like a good all-around player.
This offensively-challenged team loses their two leading scorers. Yikes!
RETURNING
Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".
| Player | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG% | 3Pt% | A/TO | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Jamal Bey | 31 | 31 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 34% | 32% | 0.6 | Sr 5 | 4 | 105 |
| PJ Fuller | 32 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 40% | 32% | 0.6 | Jr 4 | 4 | 76 |
| Cole Bajema | 32 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 33% | 34% | 0.7 | Jr 4 | 4 | 112 |
| Langston Wilson | 28 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 42% | 38% | 0.4 | So | #2 Juco | |
| Riley Sorn | 15 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 83% | 0.3 | So 3 | Unranked | ||
| Jackson Grant | 25 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 38% | 0.4 | So | 4 | 67 |
The returning roster is a mess. First I would direct your attention to the A/TO column. There is NOBODY returning who shows the slightest hint of being a good ball-handler.
They are only returning one starter and only three players who played over 10 minutes per game.
They weren't great at scoring. They aren't returning anyone who shot that well except for 7'5" Riley Sorn, who shot 18 times all last season. The behemoth can dunk the ball.
Jamal Bey is their leading returning scorer. Two years ago, he led the Pac-12 in 3-point shooting, hitting over 50%. Last season, he lost his touch. For the Huskies to have a chance of scoring much this season, he will have to find it again.
They rest of the Huskies are a bunch of guys with potential, who haven't produced a lot. To be a decent team, they will need several guys to take a big leap forward.
RECRUITS
(#49 class, #5 in Pac-12)
| Player | Size | Position | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank | Offers |
| Koren Johnson | 6-1 175 | CG | 3 | 121 | Arizona, Washington St, San Diego St |
| Tyler Linhardt | 6-7 210 | PF | 3 | 177 | Boise St, Eastern Washington |
| Keyon Menifield | 6-1 170 | PG | 3 | 199 | Boston College, U Mass, New Mexico St |
It's hard to see this recruiting class providing much of what they need. Most of the time a bunch of 3-star players aren't going to be instant impact players.
Given their lack of a quality PG, they would love it if Menifield turned out to be good, but it seems unlikely.
TRANSFERRING IN
| Player | Size | Games | Starts | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | FG % | 3-Pt % | From | Class | Recruiting Stars | Recruiting Rank |
| Franck Kepnang | 6-11 247 | 35 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 58% | Oregon | So 3 | 4 | 36 | |
| Braxton Meah | 7-1 250 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 78% | Fresno State | So 3 | 3 | 224 | |
| Noah Williams | 6-5 195 | 35 | 25 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 33% | 26% | Washington St | Jr 4 | 3 | 305 |
| Keion Brooks | 6-7 210 | 33 | 33 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 49% | 23% | Kentucky | Jr 4 | 5 | 24 |
Washington fans see Oregon and Washington State as their biggest rivals. It's a bit unusual for them to get transfers from each. It would be like UCLA getting basketball transfers from Arizona and USC.
These guys look like MHKGs. Mike Hopkins Kind of Guys. Tall and long. They will all a good fit for his zone. The question is whether they are going to help with his offensive woes.
With Sorn, that have three BIG, BIG men. Kepnang looked like a quality center at Oregon. In addition to being an inside threat, he blocked 1.2 shots per game. In limited minutes, Meah had 0.4 blocks per game.
Clearly the jewel of this class is Keion Brook, an experienced full-time starter for Kentucky with a 5-star pedigree. Husky fans may worry about his poor 3-point shooting. However only around 10% of his shots for Kentucky were from behind the arc, less than one per game.
Husky fans may also worry about Noah Williams' 3-point shooting. He never was a great shooter for WSU, but after a decent second season, his numbers really fell off in his third season. Maybe his lost shooting stroke is in the same place as Jamal Bey's. If anyone knows where the ability to shoot goes, when a player can't find it, please call Mike Hopkins.
Is he the answer to their ball-handling woes? Williams had a 1.2 A/TO ratio at WSU. That's a poor number, but it still makes him the leading candidate for Husky PG. This is not the answer for a team that can't score.
CONCLUSION
If the UW had to play a game today, it would open with 6-11 Franck Kepnang at center, 6-7 Keion Brooks Wilson at forward, with 6-6 Jamal Bey, 6-foot-4 PJ Fuller, and 6-5 Noah Williams in a three-man backcourt. This is the type of tall players that Hopkins like for his zone defense.
Note that only two of the projected starters were on the team last season. The Huskies only return 37% of their scoring, 36% of their rebounds, and 27% of their assists. Only Oregon State returns less in the Pac-12.
The Huskies might be a good defensive team. However, to win basketball games you need to score. Last year, even with the league's best scorer, they were terrible on offense. With their best offensive players gone, and no one to handle the ball, this team could be painful to watch on offense. That's a Mike Hopkins trademark.
The Huskies have some talent. Washington should finish above Oregon State and Cal. After that, it is hard to see who they finish above. I'll predict 10th, and that I won't have Mike Hopkins to kick around next season.
Note that only two of the projected starters were on the team last season. The Huskies only return 37% of their scoring, 36% of their rebounds, and 27% of their assists. Only Oregon State returns less in the Pac-12.
The Huskies might be a good defensive team. However, to win basketball games you need to score. Last year, even with the league's best scorer, they were terrible on offense. With their best offensive players gone, and no one to handle the ball, this team could be painful to watch on offense. That's a Mike Hopkins trademark.
The Huskies have some talent. Washington should finish above Oregon State and Cal. After that, it is hard to see who they finish above. I'll predict 10th, and that I won't have Mike Hopkins to kick around next season.
Wilner writes:
8. Washington (8): The Huskies once again turned to the portal for salvation, and it delivered. The trio of center Franck Kepnang (Oregon), wing Noah Williams (Washington State) and forward Keion Brooks (Kentucky) should keep UW from dropping into the bottom tier. However, the ceiling is limited unless coach Mike Hopkins upgrades the perimeter with another transfer (or develops his returning players). Because anyone facing the Huskies as currently constructed should zone them all day and all night.
He also wrote:
The Huskies snared one of the top transfers on the market this week with a commitment from Keion Brooks,
A former five-star recruit who spent two seasons at Kentucky, Brooks might emerge as Terrell Brown Jr. 2.0. (Or would that make him Terrell Brown Jr. Jr.?)
If you’ll recall, Brown saved Washington’s season — and perhaps coach Mike Hopkins’ job — when he produced 22 points per game in 2021-22 after arriving from Arizona.
Brooks could have a similar impact, elevating an otherwise flawed roster to a respectable level and prolonging the Hopkins era.
The 6-foot-7 forward was a double-digit scorer for Kentucky and led the Wildcats with 27 points in their mid-season blowout of eventual national champion Kansas.
Combine Brooks’ arrival with those of center Franck Kepnang (from Oregon) and wing Noah Williams (from WSU), and the Huskies have rebuilt their front line through the portal.
If the backcourt play is merely average — and that’s hardly guaranteed given the current roster — Washington should hold its ground in the middle of the conference.
Escaping that purgatory will be a next-level challenge, however.
8. Washington (8): The Huskies once again turned to the portal for salvation, and it delivered. The trio of center Franck Kepnang (Oregon), wing Noah Williams (Washington State) and forward Keion Brooks (Kentucky) should keep UW from dropping into the bottom tier. However, the ceiling is limited unless coach Mike Hopkins upgrades the perimeter with another transfer (or develops his returning players). Because anyone facing the Huskies as currently constructed should zone them all day and all night.
He also wrote:
The Huskies snared one of the top transfers on the market this week with a commitment from Keion Brooks,
A former five-star recruit who spent two seasons at Kentucky, Brooks might emerge as Terrell Brown Jr. 2.0. (Or would that make him Terrell Brown Jr. Jr.?)
If you’ll recall, Brown saved Washington’s season — and perhaps coach Mike Hopkins’ job — when he produced 22 points per game in 2021-22 after arriving from Arizona.
Brooks could have a similar impact, elevating an otherwise flawed roster to a respectable level and prolonging the Hopkins era.
The 6-foot-7 forward was a double-digit scorer for Kentucky and led the Wildcats with 27 points in their mid-season blowout of eventual national champion Kansas.
Combine Brooks’ arrival with those of center Franck Kepnang (from Oregon) and wing Noah Williams (from WSU), and the Huskies have rebuilt their front line through the portal.
If the backcourt play is merely average — and that’s hardly guaranteed given the current roster — Washington should hold its ground in the middle of the conference.
Escaping that purgatory will be a next-level challenge, however.