Post by mhbruin on Mar 21, 2022 8:07:43 GMT -8
I think it's about time Bruins fans realized something. We are a damned good basketball team. We have wins over Arizona, Villanova. We dismantled a very good Saint Mary's team. We beat SC twice. And this is with a team that has been constantly dealing with injuries.
We are one of five teams that is Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The other four are Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, and Arizona. Teams that don't make that list include Kansas, Duke, Auburn. Purdue, and Villanova, along with 348 other teams.
We are talented and deep. We play together and we have a great coaching staff. We aren't too likely to hang a banner this year, but we are capable of beating any team left in the field. Of course, we could lose to any team left in the field There are no cupcakes at this point.
Of course, North Carolina is very good too. They have talent and size, although they don't have depth, even if their bench came through against Baylor in OT. (Of course, the bench wasn't that good in the last 10 minutes of regulation.)
This should be a terrific game.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 69% of the time.
The computers think we are a bit better than Carolina.
We played in the crappy Pac-12 and they played in the crappy ACC, so we have comparable strength of schedule.
NORTH CAROLINA'S RECORD
The Tar Heels have won 8 of their last 9 including their win at Cameron Indoor. The lone loss during that period was to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament.
Their five Quad 1 wins are all over tournament teams. The three during the regular season are over Virginia Tech (twice) and Marquette. They also have a win over Michigan.
Their really bad loss was at home to Pittsburgh (#205) in February. The Panthers beat them by 9. The Tar Heels are capable of stinkers.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS NORTH CAROLINA'S DEFENSE
The Tar Heels have a very good defense, although not elite. At first glance it is hard to see why it is rated this highly. They let the other team score a lot of points. They don't hold the other teams to low shooting percentages. They are one of the worst teams in the country in generating turnovers. They are only decent at blocking shots.
They have one defensive stat that is elite: They don't give up offensive rebounds. By controlling their own glass, they limit teams to one shot per possession. That is enough to turn a mediocre defense statistically into a good one. We are very good on the offensive boards. That might be an interesting matchup.
HOWEVER, they play a very fast pace. It's not quite the hyper pace Roy Williams' teams played, but it is one of the faster paces in the country. That indicates that it is important the we get back on defense. They are going to try to get a fast break every time they get a rebound. So we cannot afford to attack the offensive glass too aggressively.
Their 3-point defense is quite a bit worse than their 2-point defense. We are not a team that shoots a high percentage of 3-point shots, but we may get a lot of open looks.
Overall, I see us having the advantage on this end of the floor, particularly if our open 3's are falling.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS NORTH CAROLINA''S OFFENSE
This seems to be a pretty even matchup. On offense, North Carolina is good at most things, but not great at much. Their best stat is their FT shooting. They are #61 in the nation with 19 free throw attempts per game. We usually send other teams to the line 16 times per game.
They are also good at shooting 3's. They are the 4th best 3-point shooting team left in the field. We are good at defending the arc. How we defend the arc could decide the game.
FWIW, we are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the Sweet 16.
When North Carolina makes 3's, they generally win. When they shoot over 40% they are 12-2. When they shoot less than 30%, they are 3-5, and those 3 wins are against bad teams. We need to defend the arc. I suppose that most teams win when they hit their 3's and lose when they don't. (They shot 44% from the arc in their win over Baylor and 39% in their win against Duke.)
They are not a great 2-point shooting team, and we defend the 2 well.
Overall them are pretty good at not turning the ball over, but they get quite a few shots blocked.
It is hard to find a big advantage for either team here. I see this part of the matchup as even or slightly favoring us.
OTHER FACTORS
I had to double-check those rebound numbers. The really are #7 in rebound margin. It's not that they are great offensive rebounders. They are only #177 in offensive rebounds per game. They are just GREAT on the defensive boards. That doesn't seem too scary.
Given quality if of their guards, you might expect their A/TO ration to be better. Leaky Black is an excellent 2.8 and RJ Davis is 2.0, but Caleb Love is only 1.3 in A/TO ratio.
PLAYERS
North Carolina is a 5-man team. 88% of the points come from starters, and that includes points scored by subs during any garbage time and points scored by Dawson Garcia who started 16 games and left the team . 69% of the rebounds come from the starters. The starters get 88% of the assists.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Tar Heels are very talented. I don't know how McKoy slipped in there, but everyone else is either Top 100 or close. Caleb Love is a McDonald's AA. They are also decent sized across the board. We are pretty evenly matched in talent and size, if not in depth. We will see about how evenly matched we are in coaching.
"Bricks" Bacot (who I nicknamed after almost blowing the Baylor game at the FT line), is their one true inside player. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks. He is a quality big man who can score around the basket and hit the midrange jump shot. He is not a great passer out of the post and is second on the team in turnovers. We night be tempted to double him, but the other four are very capable 3-point shooters, so doubling is dangerous.
Bacot is an outstanding rebounder, and their real threat on the offensive boards. He is second in the nation in total rebounds. (He only trails some guy named Oscar. Freeman of Akron was 4th.) He is third in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounds. For reference, Myles Johnson averages 12 rebounds per 40 minutes, and Bacot averages 16. It's not just that he plays a lot of minutes. He gets a lot of rebounds.
Caleb Love is capable of scoring a lot of points. He has scored over 20 in 9 of their 35 games. He leads the team in FG attempts and 3-point attempts, even if he isn't their best shooter. He leads the team in turnovers. He is by far more dangerous outside the arc than inside the arc.
Brady Manek (pronounced "manic") looks like he is auditioning for Mountain Men, but is a classic stretch four. He is their best 3-point shooter, and he shoots almost as many 3's as Caleb Love. However, he is a capable scorer inside the arc. He is an excellent rebounder.
You probably watched RJ Davis go off for a career-high 30 points against Baylor and concluded that he is unstoppable. However, remember that this was a career high. He is a capable scorer, he is not an off-the-charts shooter. He leads the team in assists.
Leaky (Rechon Malik) Black is primarily a defensive player, and there is nothing leaky about his defense. He will typically guard the other team's best offensive player and often shuts them down completely. He was third in the voting of ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He shoots a decent percentage, but doesn't shoot that much. He leads the team in A/TO margin.
If there is anything scary about this team is they have three very quick guards, and we have had trouble with quick guards.
CONCLUSION
This will probably be the last time I write this sentence this season. We are the better team than our opponent. We are better of offense, and we are better on defense. They are better on the boards. In a 7-game series, I think we win in 5 games. But this is not a 7-game series. It's a single game, are capable of winning a single game.
This is also March, and we seem to grind out wins in March. Mick has been doing this a long time. Hubert has been around coaching a long time, but this is his first time fully in charge. The Tar Heels seemed to lose their poise in their 10-minute collapse against Baylor. We don't seem to get flustered. We don't panic when we fall behind.
We need to do three things to win this game: 1) Defend the arc. 2) Get rebounds. 3) Keep them out of the lane for the penetrate and kick.
Am I worried. I am a Bruin fan. I worry about Jaimie's ankle. I worry about Davis going off again. I worry about Bacot on the boards.
However, if I were a Carolina fan I would be more worried. They have to play UCLA, and UCLA is a very, very good team.
Go Bruins!
We are one of five teams that is Top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The other four are Gonzaga, Houston, Baylor, and Arizona. Teams that don't make that list include Kansas, Duke, Auburn. Purdue, and Villanova, along with 348 other teams.
We are talented and deep. We play together and we have a great coaching staff. We aren't too likely to hang a banner this year, but we are capable of beating any team left in the field. Of course, we could lose to any team left in the field There are no cupcakes at this point.
Of course, North Carolina is very good too. They have talent and size, although they don't have depth, even if their bench came through against Baylor in OT. (Of course, the bench wasn't that good in the last 10 minutes of regulation.)
This should be a terrific game.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 69% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 64% of the time. 74-70
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 77-72 .
KemPom: UCLA wins % of the time
KemPom: UCLA wins % of the time
The computers think we are a bit better than Carolina.
| North Carolina | UCLA | |
| NET | 31 | 10 |
| KenPom Rank | 22 | 9 |
| Sagarin Rank | 20 | 8 |
| Torvick Rank | 21 | 9 |
| SOS | 36 | 37 |
| Record | 26-9 | 27-7 |
We played in the crappy Pac-12 and they played in the crappy ACC, so we have comparable strength of schedule.
NORTH CAROLINA'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 6-4 | 8-2 | 9-1 | 4-0 |
| North Carolina | 5-8 | 3-0 | 13-0 | 5-1 |
The Tar Heels have won 8 of their last 9 including their win at Cameron Indoor. The lone loss during that period was to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament.
Their five Quad 1 wins are all over tournament teams. The three during the regular season are over Virginia Tech (twice) and Marquette. They also have a win over Michigan.
Their really bad loss was at home to Pittsburgh (#205) in February. The Panthers beat them by 9. The Tar Heels are capable of stinkers.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 13-6 |
| North Carolina Road / Neutral | 11-7 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS NORTH CAROLINA'S DEFENSE
North Carolina Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 44 | 12 |
| Torvick Rank | 41 | 14 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 72 | 76 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 32 of 358 | 262 |
| FG Percent | 43% | 45% |
| Effective FG Percent | 49.2% (132) | 50.6% (142) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34.1% (209) | 35.4% (77) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 37.4% (174) | 31.5% (312) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 48.0% (100) | 49.5% (189) |
| FT Percent | 74% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 21.4% (2) | 31.6% (69) |
| Assist Percent | 48.0% (100) | 50.5% (182) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 14.1% (347) | 13.5% (5) |
| Block Percent | 9.8% (119) | 7.7% (77) |
The Tar Heels have a very good defense, although not elite. At first glance it is hard to see why it is rated this highly. They let the other team score a lot of points. They don't hold the other teams to low shooting percentages. They are one of the worst teams in the country in generating turnovers. They are only decent at blocking shots.
They have one defensive stat that is elite: They don't give up offensive rebounds. By controlling their own glass, they limit teams to one shot per possession. That is enough to turn a mediocre defense statistically into a good one. We are very good on the offensive boards. That might be an interesting matchup.
HOWEVER, they play a very fast pace. It's not quite the hyper pace Roy Williams' teams played, but it is one of the faster paces in the country. That indicates that it is important the we get back on defense. They are going to try to get a fast break every time they get a rebound. So we cannot afford to attack the offensive glass too aggressively.
Their 3-point defense is quite a bit worse than their 2-point defense. We are not a team that shoots a high percentage of 3-point shots, but we may get a lot of open looks.
Overall, I see us having the advantage on this end of the floor, particularly if our open 3's are falling.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS NORTH CAROLINA''S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | North Carolina Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 14 | 21 |
| Torvick Rank | 17 | 20 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 79 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 45% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.6% (71) | 52.3% (77) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.1% (87) | 36.5% (42) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 37.8% (186) | 37.9% (173) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47.3% (77) | 50.9% (127) |
| FT Percent | 77.0% (22) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 24.9% (57) | 30.7% (88) |
| Assist Percent | 50.5% (165) | 50.4% (71) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19.6% (98) | 16.6% (57) |
| Block Percent | 9.5% (136) | 8.9% (178) |
This seems to be a pretty even matchup. On offense, North Carolina is good at most things, but not great at much. Their best stat is their FT shooting. They are #61 in the nation with 19 free throw attempts per game. We usually send other teams to the line 16 times per game.
They are also good at shooting 3's. They are the 4th best 3-point shooting team left in the field. We are good at defending the arc. How we defend the arc could decide the game.
FWIW, we are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the Sweet 16.
When North Carolina makes 3's, they generally win. When they shoot over 40% they are 12-2. When they shoot less than 30%, they are 3-5, and those 3 wins are against bad teams. We need to defend the arc. I suppose that most teams win when they hit their 3's and lose when they don't. (They shot 44% from the arc in their win over Baylor and 39% in their win against Duke.)
They are not a great 2-point shooting team, and we defend the 2 well.
Overall them are pretty good at not turning the ball over, but they get quite a few shots blocked.
It is hard to find a big advantage for either team here. I see this part of the matchup as even or slightly favoring us.
OTHER FACTORS
| North Carolina | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 8.4 | 4.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.3 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
I had to double-check those rebound numbers. The really are #7 in rebound margin. It's not that they are great offensive rebounders. They are only #177 in offensive rebounds per game. They are just GREAT on the defensive boards. That doesn't seem too scary.
Given quality if of their guards, you might expect their A/TO ration to be better. Leaky Black is an excellent 2.8 and RJ Davis is 2.0, but Caleb Love is only 1.3 in A/TO ratio.
PLAYERS
North Carolina is a 5-man team. 88% of the points come from starters, and that includes points scored by subs during any garbage time and points scored by Dawson Garcia who started 16 games and left the team . 69% of the rebounds come from the starters. The starters get 88% of the assists.
| Class | Size | Recruiting | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | |
| Armando Bacot F | Jr | 6-10 240 | 5 star #27 | 35 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 2.2 | 59% | 13% | 4% |
| Caleb Love G | So | 6-4 195 | 5-2tar #14 | 35 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0.3 | 37% | 37% | 48% |
| Brady Manek F | Sr 5 | 6-9 230 | 4-star #117 | 35 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0.8 | 50% | 40% | 53% |
| R.J. Davis G | So | 6-0 175 | 4-star #50 | 35 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 0.3 | 44% | 39% | 44% |
| Leaky Black G | Sr | 6-8 200 | 4-star #71 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 48% | 35% | 34% |
| Puff Johnson G | So | 6-8 205 | 4-star #69 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 44% | 23% | ||
| Dontrez Styles G | Fr | 6-6 210 | 4-star #66 | 27 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 47% | 20% | ||
| Justin McKoy F | Jr | 6-8 220 | 3-star #229 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 24% | 27% | ||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
The Tar Heels are very talented. I don't know how McKoy slipped in there, but everyone else is either Top 100 or close. Caleb Love is a McDonald's AA. They are also decent sized across the board. We are pretty evenly matched in talent and size, if not in depth. We will see about how evenly matched we are in coaching.
"Bricks" Bacot (who I nicknamed after almost blowing the Baylor game at the FT line), is their one true inside player. He leads the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks. He is a quality big man who can score around the basket and hit the midrange jump shot. He is not a great passer out of the post and is second on the team in turnovers. We night be tempted to double him, but the other four are very capable 3-point shooters, so doubling is dangerous.
Bacot is an outstanding rebounder, and their real threat on the offensive boards. He is second in the nation in total rebounds. (He only trails some guy named Oscar. Freeman of Akron was 4th.) He is third in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounds. For reference, Myles Johnson averages 12 rebounds per 40 minutes, and Bacot averages 16. It's not just that he plays a lot of minutes. He gets a lot of rebounds.
Caleb Love is capable of scoring a lot of points. He has scored over 20 in 9 of their 35 games. He leads the team in FG attempts and 3-point attempts, even if he isn't their best shooter. He leads the team in turnovers. He is by far more dangerous outside the arc than inside the arc.
Brady Manek (pronounced "manic") looks like he is auditioning for Mountain Men, but is a classic stretch four. He is their best 3-point shooter, and he shoots almost as many 3's as Caleb Love. However, he is a capable scorer inside the arc. He is an excellent rebounder.
You probably watched RJ Davis go off for a career-high 30 points against Baylor and concluded that he is unstoppable. However, remember that this was a career high. He is a capable scorer, he is not an off-the-charts shooter. He leads the team in assists.
Leaky (Rechon Malik) Black is primarily a defensive player, and there is nothing leaky about his defense. He will typically guard the other team's best offensive player and often shuts them down completely. He was third in the voting of ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He shoots a decent percentage, but doesn't shoot that much. He leads the team in A/TO margin.
If there is anything scary about this team is they have three very quick guards, and we have had trouble with quick guards.
CONCLUSION
This will probably be the last time I write this sentence this season. We are the better team than our opponent. We are better of offense, and we are better on defense. They are better on the boards. In a 7-game series, I think we win in 5 games. But this is not a 7-game series. It's a single game, are capable of winning a single game.
This is also March, and we seem to grind out wins in March. Mick has been doing this a long time. Hubert has been around coaching a long time, but this is his first time fully in charge. The Tar Heels seemed to lose their poise in their 10-minute collapse against Baylor. We don't seem to get flustered. We don't panic when we fall behind.
We need to do three things to win this game: 1) Defend the arc. 2) Get rebounds. 3) Keep them out of the lane for the penetrate and kick.
Am I worried. I am a Bruin fan. I worry about Jaimie's ankle. I worry about Davis going off again. I worry about Bacot on the boards.
However, if I were a Carolina fan I would be more worried. They have to play UCLA, and UCLA is a very, very good team.
Go Bruins!