Post by mhbruin on Mar 18, 2022 8:51:55 GMT -8
Whew! Survive and advance. We shot decently from the arc, but 34% on our two-point shots. We are about to face another team that doesn't defend the 3 very well, but is damned good at defending the two-point shot. We had better discover our shooting around the basket or we won't get to Philadelhia.
Saint Mary's made Indiana look terrible, particularly on offense, but Indiana is terrible on offense. Saint Mary's made Indiana look terrible on defense. Indiana is really good on defense. Saint Mary's is a really good team. They are capable of beating us, particularly if we play as badly as we did against Akron.
We played like garbage last night. Saint Mary's played great! Fortunately, none of that has to carry over to the next game.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 67% of the time.
According to the predictions don't expect to have much left of your nails (if you didn't bite them down to the nubs last night.) If Mick Cronin had any hair, he might lose it when we play Saint Mary's.
How many ways can you say "even matchup"? Close contest? You get the idea. Even our strength of schedule is pretty close.
SAINT MARY'S RECORD
Saint Mary's has a home win over #1 Gonzaga, as well as two wins over San Francisco (#22). The worst loss is to #67 Santa Clara.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS SAINT MARY'S DEFENSE
Statistically Saint Mary's defense looks a lot like Akron's defense, only better. They are great at defending the two-point shot, but more vulnerable to the three-point shot. However, they are one of the best teams in the nation at not letting teams shoot 3's in the first place.
They are outstanding in two other areas. 1) Other teams don't get a lot of assists. 2) They don't give up offensive rebounds.
Like Akron, they play a slow tempo. This game will be a grind.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS SAINT MARY'S OFFENSE
Saint Mary's offensive numbers are strikingly similar to Akron's. However, they don't take as many threes and a lot more of their baskets are assisted. They rely more on their offense to generate shots instead of one-on-one play. Keep in mind that these stats were based on a much stronger schedule than Akron's.
Most of them are good to great 3-point shooters. But they are not strictly a 3-point shooting team. Almost 2/3rds of their shots are twos.
They are a good FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
We didn't dominate the boards over height-challenged Akron. It should be a pretty even matchup with the Gaels.
PLAYERS
Saint Mary's typically plays 9, but 7 will play the bulk of the minutes. They are a senior-laden team. Their top 6 players are 4 seniors and 2 juniors.
They have plenty of size.
Randy Bennett has had one luxury few others have had this season. None of this top 6 players have missed a single game. Only one of his top 9 players has missed any action at all.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
They get the bulk of their scoring from four players, but the rest of the team are capable scorers except Marciulionis.
Tass is their leading scorer. who is capable around the basket.
Kuhse (who's last name is pronounced like Bob Cousy's) is the bald buy who looks like he is 35. He plays like a 15-year NBA veteran. He leads the team in assists with a 1.7 A/TO ratio. He is a deadly 3-point shooter, but he is also capable of driving to the hoop. He leads the team in assists. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Logan Johnson is very good at turning the corner and driving, but he likes to shoot a lot of 3's.
Alex Ducas has a name which sounds like "doofus", but he is not one on the court. He is most dangerous from the 3-point line.
Dan Fotu leads the team in A/TO ratio at 2.2, but he isn't the primary ball-handler.
Saxen is a capable backup center who is not a big scoring threat, but is their best rebounder and shot blocker. Maybe someday they will write Saxen Tales about him. (Today's obscure reference to a great set of novels.)
CONCLUSION
If you haven't realized it by now, Saint Mary's is a formidable opponent. You can think of them as a better, taller version of Akron, although perhaps not as athletic. They don't have the hyper quick guards that we seem to have trouble with.
However, they are not clearly the better team. In last year's tournament I felt we were always facing a better team. Saint Mary's is an even match.
In a 7-game series, I think we would win 4-3.
The outcome really depends on us. If we make our open 3's and our layups, we win. If we don't make them we lose.
With some teams we have the margin of error to shoot poorly and win by dominating other aspects of the game. We don't have that luxury against Saint Mary's. We HAVE to shoot well. If we do, hello Sweet 16. If we don't, hello Westwood Village.
Here's hoping we got the offensive stinker out of our systems.
Go Bruins!
Saint Mary's made Indiana look terrible, particularly on offense, but Indiana is terrible on offense. Saint Mary's made Indiana look terrible on defense. Indiana is really good on defense. Saint Mary's is a really good team. They are capable of beating us, particularly if we play as badly as we did against Akron.
We played like garbage last night. Saint Mary's played great! Fortunately, none of that has to carry over to the next game.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 67% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 56% of the time. 65-64
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 69-63 .
KemPom: UCLA wins % of the time. (Thanks again, Born2BeBruin)
KemPom: UCLA wins % of the time. (Thanks again, Born2BeBruin)
According to the predictions don't expect to have much left of your nails (if you didn't bite them down to the nubs last night.) If Mick Cronin had any hair, he might lose it when we play Saint Mary's.
| Saint Mary's | UCLA | |
| NET | 19 | 10 |
| KenPom Rank | 15 | 10 |
| Sagarin Rank | 20 | 11 |
| Torvick Rank | 16 | 10 |
| SOS | 58 | 40 |
| Record | 26-7 | 26-7 |
How many ways can you say "even matchup"? Close contest? You get the idea. Even our strength of schedule is pretty close.
SAINT MARY'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 5-4 | 8-2 | 9-1 | 4-0 |
| Saint Mary's | 5-7 | 6-0 | 5-0 | 9-0 |
Saint Mary's has a home win over #1 Gonzaga, as well as two wins over San Francisco (#22). The worst loss is to #67 Santa Clara.
| UCLA Road / Neutral | 12-6 |
| Saint Mary's Road / Neutral | 10-7 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS SAINT MARY'S DEFENSE
Saint Mary's Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 9 | 15 |
| Torvick Rank | 10 | 16 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 60 | 76 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 334 of 358 | 257 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 45% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.9% (80) | 52.9% (58) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34.2% (216) | 35.2% (83) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 28.5% (4) | 31.7% (307) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 46.6% (49) | 49.2% (199) |
| FT Percent | 74% | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 21.8% (3) | 31.8% (64) |
| Assist Percent | 36.1% (1) | 50.4% (184) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19.5% (109) | 13.4% (5) |
| Block Percent | 6.5% (291) | 7.8% (82) |
Statistically Saint Mary's defense looks a lot like Akron's defense, only better. They are great at defending the two-point shot, but more vulnerable to the three-point shot. However, they are one of the best teams in the nation at not letting teams shoot 3's in the first place.
They are outstanding in two other areas. 1) Other teams don't get a lot of assists. 2) They don't give up offensive rebounds.
Like Akron, they play a slow tempo. This game will be a grind.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS SAINT MARY'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Saint Mary's Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 12 | 50 |
| Torvick Rank | 16 | 46 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 65 | 70 |
| FG Percent | 42% | 46% |
| Effective FG Percent | 47.7% (73) | 52.9% (58) |
| 3-Pt Percent | 32.2% (93) | 35.3% (72) |
| 3-Pt Rate | 37.8% (185) | 36.0% (219) |
| 2-Pt Percent | 47.3% (77) | 52.6% (66) |
| FT Percent | 75.8% (268) | |
| Offensive Rebound Percent | 24.8% (53) | 27.5% (187) |
| Assist Percent | 51,1% (186) | 51.1% (164) |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 19.7% (92) | 17.0% (77) |
| Block Percent | 9.5% (138) | 8.7% (151) |
Saint Mary's offensive numbers are strikingly similar to Akron's. However, they don't take as many threes and a lot more of their baskets are assisted. They rely more on their offense to generate shots instead of one-on-one play. Keep in mind that these stats were based on a much stronger schedule than Akron's.
Most of them are good to great 3-point shooters. But they are not strictly a 3-point shooting team. Almost 2/3rds of their shots are twos.
They are a good FT shooting team.
OTHER FACTORS
| Saint Mary's | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
We didn't dominate the boards over height-challenged Akron. It should be a pretty even matchup with the Gaels.
PLAYERS
Saint Mary's typically plays 9, but 7 will play the bulk of the minutes. They are a senior-laden team. Their top 6 players are 4 seniors and 2 juniors.
They have plenty of size.
Randy Bennett has had one luxury few others have had this season. None of this top 6 players have missed a single game. Only one of his top 9 players has missed any action at all.
| Class | Size | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds / 40 Min. | Assists | Blocks / 40 Min. | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | |
| Matthias Tass F | Sr | 6-10 245 | 33 | 29 | 13 | 8.4 | 2 | 1.0 | 56% | 11% | |
| Tommy Kuhse G | Sr | 6-2 185 | 33 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 50% | 47% | 32% | ||
| Logan Johnson G | Sr | 6-2 177 | 33 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 44% | 30% | 56% | ||
| Alex Ducas G | Jr | 6-7 220 | 33 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 41% | 39% | 58% | ||
| Dan Fotu F | Sr | 6-7 222 | 33 | 14 | 7 | 8.6 | 1 | 50% | 33% | 29% | |
| Kyle Bowen F | Jr | 6-8 222 | 33 | 29 | 6 | 7.7 | 1 | 48% | 39% | 72% | |
| Mitchell Saxen C | So | 6-10 242 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 12.0 | 0 | 2.8 | 55% | ||
| Augustas Marciulionis G | Fr | 6-4 194 | 33 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 30% | 18% | |||
| Jabe Mullins G | So | 6-6 192 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 41% | 37% | |||
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
They get the bulk of their scoring from four players, but the rest of the team are capable scorers except Marciulionis.
Tass is their leading scorer. who is capable around the basket.
Kuhse (who's last name is pronounced like Bob Cousy's) is the bald buy who looks like he is 35. He plays like a 15-year NBA veteran. He leads the team in assists with a 1.7 A/TO ratio. He is a deadly 3-point shooter, but he is also capable of driving to the hoop. He leads the team in assists. He also leads the team in turnovers.
Logan Johnson is very good at turning the corner and driving, but he likes to shoot a lot of 3's.
Alex Ducas has a name which sounds like "doofus", but he is not one on the court. He is most dangerous from the 3-point line.
Dan Fotu leads the team in A/TO ratio at 2.2, but he isn't the primary ball-handler.
Saxen is a capable backup center who is not a big scoring threat, but is their best rebounder and shot blocker. Maybe someday they will write Saxen Tales about him. (Today's obscure reference to a great set of novels.)
CONCLUSION
If you haven't realized it by now, Saint Mary's is a formidable opponent. You can think of them as a better, taller version of Akron, although perhaps not as athletic. They don't have the hyper quick guards that we seem to have trouble with.
However, they are not clearly the better team. In last year's tournament I felt we were always facing a better team. Saint Mary's is an even match.
In a 7-game series, I think we would win 4-3.
The outcome really depends on us. If we make our open 3's and our layups, we win. If we don't make them we lose.
With some teams we have the margin of error to shoot poorly and win by dominating other aspects of the game. We don't have that luxury against Saint Mary's. We HAVE to shoot well. If we do, hello Sweet 16. If we don't, hello Westwood Village.
Here's hoping we got the offensive stinker out of our systems.
Go Bruins!