Post by mhbruin on Mar 14, 2022 7:56:39 GMT -8
I have always believed that the wagering public is smarter than the average fan and the average committee. So every year I look at the line to see which teams Vegas believes are mis-seeded.
Of course the committee and the bettors are using different criteria. The committee wants to reward teams for their body of work. The bettor wants to choose the team that is most likely to win in March.
We should also remember that the line is based on both teams. Is Duke seeded too low or is Cal State Fullerton seeded too high.
Finally there may be a little "blue blood" bias. Names like Duke, UCLA, and North Carolina may get more action by the casual fan, because they know the names better than Boise State.
These are opening lines. I may update this in a couple of day.
Of course the committee and the bettors are using different criteria. The committee wants to reward teams for their body of work. The bettor wants to choose the team that is most likely to win in March.
We should also remember that the line is based on both teams. Is Duke seeded too low or is Cal State Fullerton seeded too high.
Finally there may be a little "blue blood" bias. Names like Duke, UCLA, and North Carolina may get more action by the casual fan, because they know the names better than Boise State.
These are opening lines. I may update this in a couple of day.
| Seed | Rank | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Line | |||||
| 1 | 1 | Gonzaga | Georgia St | -25.5 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | Arizona | |||||||
| 1 | 3 | Kansas | |||||||
| 1 | 4 | Baylor | Norfolk St | -20 | |||||
| 2 | 5 | Auburn | Jacksonville St | -16,5 | |||||
| 2 | 6 | Kentucky | St. Peters | -15 | |||||
| 2 | 7 | Villanova | Delaware | -15.5 | |||||
| 2 | 8 | Duke | Cal State Fullerton | -19 | |||||
| 3 | 9 | Wisconsin | Colgate | -9 | |||||
| 3 | 10 | Tennessee | Longwood | -17.5 | |||||
| 3 | 11 | Purdue | Yale | -16 | |||||
| 3 | 12 | Texas Tech | Montana St | -14.5 | |||||
| 4 | 13 | UCLA | Akron | -15 | |||||
| 4 | 14 | Illinois | Cahtanooga | -7.5 | |||||
| 4 | 15 | Providence | South Dakota St | -2.5 | |||||
| 4 | 16 | Arkansas | Vermont | -6,5 | |||||
| 5 | 17 | UConn | New Mexico St | -7 | |||||
| 5 | 18 | Houston | UAB | -8.5 | |||||
| 5 | 19 | Saint Mary's | Indiana | -2.5 | |||||
| 5 | 20 | Iowa | Richmond | -9.5 | |||||
| 6 | 21 | Alabama | Notre Dame | -4 | |||||
| 6 | 22 | LSU | Iowa St | -5.5 | |||||
| 6 | 23 | Texas | Virginia Tech | -1 | |||||
| 6 | 24 | Colorado St | Michigan | +2.5 | |||||
| 7 | 25 | USC | Miami | -2 | |||||
| 7 | 26 | Murray St | USF | 0 | |||||
| 7 | 27 | Michigan St | Davidson | -1.5 | |||||
| 7 | 28 | Ohio St | Loyola - Chicago | -1.5 | |||||
| 8 | 29 | Boise St | Memphis | +1.5 | |||||
| 8 | 30 | North Carolina | Marquette | -3 | |||||
| 8 | 31 | San Diego St | Creighton | -2 | |||||
| 8 | 32 | Seton Hall | TCU | -1.5 |
- Vegas agrees that UCLA should have been the last #3 seed instead of Wisconsin.
- Vegas thinks Providence is seeded way too high. That line looks like a #6 or #7 seed. However, this is in part because South Dakota State is one of the most dangerous double-digit seeds. I am REALLY happy we were not matched up with them instead of Chicago.
- Iowa appears to be a little under-seeded.
- The odds makers seem to recognize that Michigan and Memphis were playing really well at the end of the season and are very dangerous teams.
- There is ZERO evidence that Vegas has any trouble with all the Big Ten teams in the field. All their lines seem reasonable for their seeds.
- I am not sure whether Murray State is over-seeded or USF is under-seeded.