Post by mhbruin on Mar 12, 2022 9:32:32 GMT -8
I last did this 6 days ago. In the meantime, the bracketologists have mostly moved Wisconsin and Providence down, and moved Texas Tech Up.
One has moved us up to the 3 line, which means 5 out of 7 say #4. The two most accurate bracketologists are split, with one saying we are a #3 and the other saying we are #4.
The likely 3 seeds are Wisconsin, Purdue, Tennessee, and Texas Tech.
Wisconsin's already done playing.
Purdue is -6,5 against Michigan State. Go Spartans.
Tennessee is +2.5 against Kentucky. Go (this is hard to write) Wildcats!
Texas Tech is +2.5 against Kansas. Rock, Chalk whatever...
Among these teams, the only one who could be hurt by a loss is Purdue. They others are playing #1 or #2 seeds in the NCAA tournament, and those losses would be about as good as a loss can get. Frankly, I don't think we have any chance of passing Tennessee or Texas Tech.
What about the metrics the committee uses? Here are the three teams competing for ONE SPOT on the #3 Seed Line.
Tennessee: No Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. Most Quad 1 wins. Best BPI, SOR, and SOS. Solid #3 seed.
Texas Tech: No Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. Only 8-8 in Quad 1. Losing road / neutral record.
UCLA: Great computer rankings. Weak SOS. Fewest Quad 1 wins. A Quad 3 loss.
Purdue: Excellent SOR and Road / Neutral record. One Quad 2 loss. Nothing great. Nothing terrible.
Wisconsin: Outstanding Road/Neutral record. Best win percent in Quad 1. TWO Quad 3 losses. Wisconsin is the most inconsistent team. When they are good, they are very, very good, and when they are bad they are awful.
UCLA Has the worst batch of "Best Wins". Our "Worst Losses" aren't that great either, although no one has anything close to Wisconsin's home loss to Nebraska.
Basically this is a two-team race between UCLA and Wisconsin for the last #3 seed, and it's neck and neck. A win tonight might settle it.
In any case, I don't think we start the NCAA's in San Diego. Arizona and Texas Tech will get the two spots. Portland, anyone?
*According to Bracket Matrix, Delphi and Heat Check have been two of the most accurate over the last 5 years.
One has moved us up to the 3 line, which means 5 out of 7 say #4. The two most accurate bracketologists are split, with one saying we are a #3 and the other saying we are #4.
| Team | Bracket Matrix | Lunardi | Palm | Team Rankings | Torvick | Delphi* | Heat Check* | Actual |
| Wisconsin | 2 -> 3 | 2 -> 3 | 2 -> 3 | 2 (1) | 3 | 3 -> 4 (1) | 3 -> 4 (1) | 3 |
| Villanova | 3 -> 2 (1) | 3 | 3 (1) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Purdue | 3 | 3 -> 2 (1) | 2 (1) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 (1) | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 4 -> 3 | 4 (1) | 3 -> 2 (1) | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Providence | 4 | 4 | 3 -> 4 (1) | 3 (1) | 4 -> 6 (2) | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| UCLA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 (1) | 4 | 4 | 4 -> 3 (1) | 4 |
| Illinois | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 -> 3 (1) | 4 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 4 | 5 (1) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Houston | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 (1) | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Error | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
The likely 3 seeds are Wisconsin, Purdue, Tennessee, and Texas Tech.
Wisconsin's already done playing.
Purdue is -6,5 against Michigan State. Go Spartans.
Tennessee is +2.5 against Kentucky. Go (this is hard to write) Wildcats!
Texas Tech is +2.5 against Kansas. Rock, Chalk whatever...
Among these teams, the only one who could be hurt by a loss is Purdue. They others are playing #1 or #2 seeds in the NCAA tournament, and those losses would be about as good as a loss can get. Frankly, I don't think we have any chance of passing Tennessee or Texas Tech.
What about the metrics the committee uses? Here are the three teams competing for ONE SPOT on the #3 Seed Line.
| Team | NET | W/L | Road Neutral | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | KenPom | Torvick | Sagarin | BPI | SOR |
| Tennessee | 8 | 24-7 | 8-7 | 8 | 9-7 | 5-0 | 4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Texas Tech | 9 | 25-8 | 7-10 | 20 | 8-8 | 7-0 | 1-0 | 9-0 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| UCLA | 10 | 25-6 | 9-5 | 44 | 5-3 | 8-2 | 8-1 | 4-0 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| Purdue | 13 | 26-6 | 10-5 | 38 | 7-5 | 6-1 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| Wisconsin | 25 | 24-7 | 12-3 | 18 | 8-3 | 8-2 | 4-2 | 4-0 | 34 | 28 | 23 | 28 | 11 |
Tennessee: No Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. Most Quad 1 wins. Best BPI, SOR, and SOS. Solid #3 seed.
Texas Tech: No Quad 2, 3, or 4 losses. Only 8-8 in Quad 1. Losing road / neutral record.
UCLA: Great computer rankings. Weak SOS. Fewest Quad 1 wins. A Quad 3 loss.
Purdue: Excellent SOR and Road / Neutral record. One Quad 2 loss. Nothing great. Nothing terrible.
Wisconsin: Outstanding Road/Neutral record. Best win percent in Quad 1. TWO Quad 3 losses. Wisconsin is the most inconsistent team. When they are good, they are very, very good, and when they are bad they are awful.
| Team | Best Wins | Worst Losses |
| Tennessee | Arizona (2), Kentucky (4), LSU (18), Arkansas (20) | Texas (16) , LSU (18), Arkansas (20), Alabama (28) |
| Texas Tech | Baylor (5), Baylor (5), Kansas (7), Tennessee (8) | TCU (44), Iowa State (47), Oklahoma St (50), Kansas St (74) |
| UCLA | Arizona (2), Villanova (6), USC(35), USC (35) | USC (35), Oregon (76), Oregon (76), Arizona St (98) |
| Purdue | Villanova (6), Iowa (14), Iowa (14), Illinois (15) | Michigan St (36), Indiana (38), Wisconsin (25) Rutgers (78) |
| Wisconsin | Houston (3), Purdue (13), Purdue (13), Iowa (14) | Providence (33), Michigan St (36), Rutgers (78), Nebraska (141) |
UCLA Has the worst batch of "Best Wins". Our "Worst Losses" aren't that great either, although no one has anything close to Wisconsin's home loss to Nebraska.
Basically this is a two-team race between UCLA and Wisconsin for the last #3 seed, and it's neck and neck. A win tonight might settle it.
In any case, I don't think we start the NCAA's in San Diego. Arizona and Texas Tech will get the two spots. Portland, anyone?
*According to Bracket Matrix, Delphi and Heat Check have been two of the most accurate over the last 5 years.