Post by mhbruin on Mar 6, 2022 11:23:07 GMT -8
| Team | Bracket Matrix | Lunardi | Palm | Team Rankings | Torvick | Delphi* | Heat Check* |
| Wisconsin | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Villanova | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Purdue | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Providence | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| UCLA | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Illinois | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Arkansas | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Houston | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
If you believe the bracketologists, we are a #4 seed. We are stuck there unless we beat Arizona on Saturday, and maybe even then.
EXCEPT ... it all depends on what other teams do. To get to #3, we would need to jump over Texas Tech and Providence. We would like to see them lose as early in their conference tournaments as possible.
We would want Iowa State to beat Texas Tech, which is possible.
We would want Providence to lose to either Xavier or Butler, which is less likely.
What about the metrics the committee uses? Here are the three teams competing for ONE SPOT on the #3 Seed Line.
| Team | NET | W=L | Road Neutral | SOS | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 | KenPom | Torvick | Sagarin | KPI | SOR |
| UCLA | 11 | 23-6 | 9-5 | 49 | 4-4 | 7-2 | 8-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 16 |
| Texas Tech | 12 | 23-8 | 5-8 | 21 | 6-8 | 7-0 | 1-0 | 9-0 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Providence | 26 | 24-4 | 8-3 | 53 | 5-3 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 34 | 32 | 30 | 33 | 9 |
Computers: UCLA and Texas Tech are basically even, and Providence is a lot lower.
Road and Neutral Court Games: Providence and UCLA have winning records. Texas Tech does not.
Quad 1: Texas Tech has the most wins, but a losing record. Providence is the only one with a winning record.
Quad 2: Texas Tech has no losses, Providence has 1, and we have 2.
Honestly, I have NO CLUE how the committee decides among these three teams. Each can make a case.
*According to Bracket Matrix, Delphi and Heat Check have been two of the most accurate over the last 5 years.