Post by mhbruin on Feb 18, 2022 18:08:00 GMT -8
Home sweet home. Even without Tyger, we handed the Cougars their worst loss of the season. It's amazing what happens when you are making your shots.
I predicted it would be a close game. Maybe if you read to the end of this I will make another prediction and be embarrassed again.
Now we welcome the coach with the hottest seat in the Pac-12. His team has shown some signs of life this season, but mediocre may not be enough to save his season.
In recent years Mike Hopkins has had good defenses and terrible offenses. This season his offense is still terrible, but his defense isn't all that great either.
METRICS
Line:UCLA -17
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time.
Based on the computers, this game looks like a toss-up or a slight UCLA advantage.
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
Washington has played 4 games against good teams. They lost to Arizona by 16 and 24. They lost to SC by 10 and Oregon by 28.
Their best win was over South Dakota State (NET #70). They have lost to Utah Valley (#111), Nevada (#128), Winthrop (#158), and Northern Illinois (#293).
This is the record of a pretty bad team. Not a horrible team, but pretty bad.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
Washington hasn't been very good on the road. Their road wins have been over California, Utah, and Oregon State, the three worst teams in the Pac-12.
We have been very good at home including wins over Arizona (#2) and Villanova (#6).
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
Washington is a fair defensive team. They aren't all that good at defending the 2. They are terrible at defending the 3.
The only reason their stats aren't worse are that they are good at blocking shots, and they are outstanding at getting turnovers. They deflect a lot of balls. They have generated fewer than 11 turnovers only twice. They have generated 21 turnovers 3 times. (Strangely in two games Arizona had 21 in Tucson and 9 in Seattle.)
Meanwhile, we are outstanding in NOT turning the ball over and good at not getting our shots blocked. Our season high is 16 turnovers against WSU, and that was without Tyger. Otherwise it is 14 against Villanova. In three overtimes against ASU, we had 9 turnovers.
So this is strength against strength. They want to steal the ball, and we want to protect it. If they are to have any chance in this game, they MUST generate turnovers. If we take care of the ball, we should win easily.
Tyger, PLEASE, don't violate team rules before THIS game.
They play a faster pace than we do, but that is mostly because they generate turnovers and turn them into points. If they have to play against a set defense, they don't play all that fast.
And with their rebounding woes (stay tuned), they can't afford to leave early. They need everyone on the defensive boards.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
It's hard to find much good to say about Washington's offense. They don't shoot the 3 well. They don't shoot the 2 well. They don't even shoot FT's all that well. They are terrible at assisting on baskets. They get quite a few of their shots blocked.
There is one positive. They don't turn the ball over all that much.
Mike Hopkins replaced all his assistants during the off-season. Folks in Seattle might have hoped this would lead to better offense. In spite of having the conference's leading scorer, it hasn't really helped.
Is it because Mike Hopkins recruits the wrong players or because he can't coach offense? Beats me. I don't think folks in Seattle will be trying to figure out anything about Mike Hopkins much longer.
OTHER FACTORS
The zone isn't the greatest defense for rebounding, and they make the most of it. They are a terrible rebounding team. They let teams rebound 35% of their missed shots for #353 in Division 1. That's out of 358 teams. So 5 teams in the nation give up more offensive boards than the Huskies. (North Florida, Merrimack, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Delaware State, and Howard.)
We get offensive rebounds on 32% of our shots, which is #70 in the nation. This could get ugly.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
They play 10 guys. However, Daejon Davis didn't make the trip to LA, and the last two players don't play that much, so Coach Hopkins may be depending on a 7-man rotation. That's what he played against SC.
They are a veteran team, with virtually every player being an upperclassman. However, they only return 4 players who played for the Huskies last season and only 3 play a lot.
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Terrell Brown, who transferred from Arizona, leads the Pac-12 in scoring and in steals. Remarkably, he does this while shooting less than twice a game from beyond the arc. He is VERY, VERY gifted at posting up or driving and shooting an impossible-looking bank shot. He also shoots 7.5 free throws per game and makes 76% of them. Watching Jaimie Jacquez and Jaylen Clark defending him will be fun. He also leads the team in A/TO ratio.
Emmitt Matthews, who transferred from West Virginia, is a nice looking player, who is one of their two best 3-point shooters. 35% qualifies as leading the team. UCLA has two players who shoot over 40% and another who shoots 39%. Matthews also is their second-leading rebounder.
Jamal Bey is on a vision quest to find his 3-point shot. Actually he finds his shot a lot. He leads the team in attempts. He is trying to find his lost secret of making them. Last season he led the Pac-12 in 3-point accuracy at 51%. If you see his missing 20%, please call Coach Hopkins, but not until after our game.
PJ Fuller came from TCU. where he didn't shoot very well. His 40% from the field is a slight improvement. He is a good athlete, but turns the ball over quite a bit.
Daeshon Davis (who is not Dashawn Davis who plays for Oregon State), transferred from Stanford. He probably won't play against us. He isn't a great shooter, but he is the only player except for Brown with an A/TO ratio over 1.0.
Cole Bajema is their 3-point specialist. He shoots a respectable 35% from the arc.
Nate Roberts is their starting center. He is pretty athletic and leads them in rebounding and blocks. He is still awkward and probably leads them in missed layups.
Riley Sorn is big at 7'5". He is probably the tallest guy in the Pac-12. Unfortunately, he must be wearing lead shoes. Smaller post players seem to get around him with ease, although he will occasionally block a shot.
This is truly the gang that can't shoot straight.
CONCLUSION
There is one big question about this team: How did they win 13 games including 8 Pac-12 games? The answer is simple. The Pac-12 is terrible once you get past the first four teams, and they have feasted on the bottom and middle of the league.
They are in no position to compete with the top teams. That includes UCLA. They have a mediocre defense and terrible offense. They are bad rebounding team.
Their only hope is to get a lot of steals. We are the wrong team for that.
I don't know if we cover 17 points, but it is very hard to see how we lose this game.
I predicted it would be a close game. Maybe if you read to the end of this I will make another prediction and be embarrassed again.
Now we welcome the coach with the hottest seat in the Pac-12. His team has shown some signs of life this season, but mediocre may not be enough to save his season.
In recent years Mike Hopkins has had good defenses and terrible offenses. This season his offense is still terrible, but his defense isn't all that great either.
METRICS
Line:UCLA -17
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 97% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 94% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 79-63.
Based on the computers, this game looks like a toss-up or a slight UCLA advantage.
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |
NET | 129 | 12 |
KenPom Rank | 128 | 11 |
Sagarin Rank | 137 | 12 |
Torvick Rank | 127 | 12 |
SOS | 66 | 24 |
Record | 13-11 | 18-5 |
WASHINGTON'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-3 | 5-2 | 7-0 | 3-0 |
WASHINGTON | 0-4 | 2-3 | 8-3 | 3-1 |
Washington has played 4 games against good teams. They lost to Arizona by 16 and 24. They lost to SC by 10 and Oregon by 28.
Their best win was over South Dakota State (NET #70). They have lost to Utah Valley (#111), Nevada (#128), Winthrop (#158), and Northern Illinois (#293).
This is the record of a pretty bad team. Not a horrible team, but pretty bad.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA Home | 11-1 |
WASHINGTON Road | 3-5 |
Washington hasn't been very good on the road. Their road wins have been over California, Utah, and Oregon State, the three worst teams in the Pac-12.
We have been very good at home including wins over Arizona (#2) and Villanova (#6).
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S DEFENSE
WASHINGTON Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 86 | 18 |
Torvick Rank | 100 | 19 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 73 | 77 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 47 | 205 |
FG Percent | 45% | 45% |
Effective FG Percent | 51% (203) | 50% (158) |
3-Pt Percent | 34% (175) | 35% (97) |
2-Pt Percent | 45% (330) | 49% (187) |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Assists Percent | 53.5% (243) | 50.1% (197) |
Turnover Percent | 23.0% (18) | 13.7% (4) |
Block Percent | 7,6% (63) | 11.8% (59) |
Washington is a fair defensive team. They aren't all that good at defending the 2. They are terrible at defending the 3.
The only reason their stats aren't worse are that they are good at blocking shots, and they are outstanding at getting turnovers. They deflect a lot of balls. They have generated fewer than 11 turnovers only twice. They have generated 21 turnovers 3 times. (Strangely in two games Arizona had 21 in Tucson and 9 in Seattle.)
Meanwhile, we are outstanding in NOT turning the ball over and good at not getting our shots blocked. Our season high is 16 turnovers against WSU, and that was without Tyger. Otherwise it is 14 against Villanova. In three overtimes against ASU, we had 9 turnovers.
So this is strength against strength. They want to steal the ball, and we want to protect it. If they are to have any chance in this game, they MUST generate turnovers. If we take care of the ball, we should win easily.
Tyger, PLEASE, don't violate team rules before THIS game.
They play a faster pace than we do, but that is mostly because they generate turnovers and turn them into points. If they have to play against a set defense, they don't play all that fast.
And with their rebounding woes (stay tuned), they can't afford to leave early. They need everyone on the defensive boards.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS WASHINGTON'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | WASHINGTON Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 14 | 187 |
Torvick Rank | 17 | 183 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 71 |
FG Percent | 41% | 40% |
Effective FG Percent | 47% (61) | 46% (324) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% (110) | 32% (282) |
2-Pt Percent | 47% (63) | 45% (330) |
FT Percent | 69% | |
Assist Percent | 52.7% (217) | 42.4% (346) |
Turnover Percent | 19.7% (104) | 16.9% (68) |
Block Percent | 10.2% (107) | 9.5% (226) |
It's hard to find much good to say about Washington's offense. They don't shoot the 3 well. They don't shoot the 2 well. They don't even shoot FT's all that well. They are terrible at assisting on baskets. They get quite a few of their shots blocked.
There is one positive. They don't turn the ball over all that much.
Mike Hopkins replaced all his assistants during the off-season. Folks in Seattle might have hoped this would lead to better offense. In spite of having the conference's leading scorer, it hasn't really helped.
Is it because Mike Hopkins recruits the wrong players or because he can't coach offense? Beats me. I don't think folks in Seattle will be trying to figure out anything about Mike Hopkins much longer.
OTHER FACTORS
WASHINGTON | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | -7.0 | 3.8 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 42% | 50% |
The zone isn't the greatest defense for rebounding, and they make the most of it. They are a terrible rebounding team. They let teams rebound 35% of their missed shots for #353 in Division 1. That's out of 358 teams. So 5 teams in the nation give up more offensive boards than the Huskies. (North Florida, Merrimack, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Delaware State, and Howard.)
We get offensive rebounds on 32% of our shots, which is #70 in the nation. This could get ugly.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
They play 10 guys. However, Daejon Davis didn't make the trip to LA, and the last two players don't play that much, so Coach Hopkins may be depending on a 7-man rotation. That's what he played against SC.
They are a veteran team, with virtually every player being an upperclassman. However, they only return 4 players who played for the Huskies last season and only 3 play a lot.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Pt % | 3-Pt Freq * | Rebounds | Assists | |
Terrell Brown Jr. G | Sr 5 | 24 | 36 | 22 | 45% | 22% | 10% | 4 | 4 |
Emmitt Matthews Jr. F | Sr | 24 | 32 | 12 | 41% | 35% | 43% | 5 | 1 |
Jamal Bey G | Sr | 23 | 29 | 9 | 33% | 31% | 50% | 4 | 2 |
PJ Fuller G | Jr | 24 | 23 | 8 | 40% | 31% | 52% | 3 | 1 |
Nate Roberts F | Jr | 24 | 21 | 5 | 47% | 7 | 0 | ||
Cole Bajema G | Jr | 24 | 19 | 5 | 33% | 35% | 60% | 2 | 1 |
Riley Sorn C | Jr | 10 | 7 | 2 | 79% | 2 | 0 | ||
Langston Wilson F | Jr | 22 | 10 | 2 | 34% | 25% | 24% | 3 | 1 |
Jackson Grant F | Fr | 21 | 7 | 1 | 35% | 2 | 0 |
* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.
Terrell Brown, who transferred from Arizona, leads the Pac-12 in scoring and in steals. Remarkably, he does this while shooting less than twice a game from beyond the arc. He is VERY, VERY gifted at posting up or driving and shooting an impossible-looking bank shot. He also shoots 7.5 free throws per game and makes 76% of them. Watching Jaimie Jacquez and Jaylen Clark defending him will be fun. He also leads the team in A/TO ratio.
Emmitt Matthews, who transferred from West Virginia, is a nice looking player, who is one of their two best 3-point shooters. 35% qualifies as leading the team. UCLA has two players who shoot over 40% and another who shoots 39%. Matthews also is their second-leading rebounder.
Jamal Bey is on a vision quest to find his 3-point shot. Actually he finds his shot a lot. He leads the team in attempts. He is trying to find his lost secret of making them. Last season he led the Pac-12 in 3-point accuracy at 51%. If you see his missing 20%, please call Coach Hopkins, but not until after our game.
PJ Fuller came from TCU. where he didn't shoot very well. His 40% from the field is a slight improvement. He is a good athlete, but turns the ball over quite a bit.
Cole Bajema is their 3-point specialist. He shoots a respectable 35% from the arc.
Nate Roberts is their starting center. He is pretty athletic and leads them in rebounding and blocks. He is still awkward and probably leads them in missed layups.
Riley Sorn is big at 7'5". He is probably the tallest guy in the Pac-12. Unfortunately, he must be wearing lead shoes. Smaller post players seem to get around him with ease, although he will occasionally block a shot.
This is truly the gang that can't shoot straight.
CONCLUSION
There is one big question about this team: How did they win 13 games including 8 Pac-12 games? The answer is simple. The Pac-12 is terrible once you get past the first four teams, and they have feasted on the bottom and middle of the league.
They are in no position to compete with the top teams. That includes UCLA. They have a mediocre defense and terrible offense. They are bad rebounding team.
Their only hope is to get a lot of steals. We are the wrong team for that.
I don't know if we cover 17 points, but it is very hard to see how we lose this game.