Post by mhbruin on Feb 7, 2022 14:42:04 GMT -8
Saturday's loss is a hard one to bounce back from. Here's hoping the players do it better than I have.
They need to because, it's on to Game #3 in our 4-game-in-10-day road trip. It doesn't look like an easy one.
Stanford is coming off walloping a decent Washington team.
We won pretty convincingly over them less than 2 weeks ago, but we only shot 37% from the floor and 14% from the arc. Unless Stanford is willing to turn the ball over 22 times again, this won't be nearly as easy
METRICS
Line: Estimated UCLA -7.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 81% of the time.
Stanford has played the second hardest schedule in the Pac-12, only behind Arizona St. UCLA is 4th.
STANFORD'S RECORD
Stanford is tied with Arizona for the most Quad 1 in the Pac-12. We are the only team in the league with 3 of them.
Those 4 Quad 1 wins are over SC (twice), WSU, and Wyoming who is #30 in the NET and #36 in Kenpom.
They also have a home win over Oregon, although that was before Oregon put it together.
Stanford is 4-4 over their last 8 games. Color them inconsistent.
Their worst loss is at Washington, who is not the horrible Huskies of the last two years.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
Stanford has been good at home, even if it is one of the most-deserted, quietest venues in college hoop.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
UCLA's offensive ratings are dropping. We were an excellent offensive team. We haven't been lately. We have had 7 games where we shot under 40% for the game this season. Three of them are the last 3. (The others are Gonzaga, Marquette, Oregon, and at Utah.)
Our win over Stanford and the ASU are our two worst shooting performances of the year. If Stanford matches that defensive performance, it will be a long night.
They are quite a bit better at defending the 3 than at defending the 2. We should be trying to get it inside and only taking really high-quality 3-point shots.
Overall, this looks like a good matchup for us, but based on the last game against them and our recent games, I am not confident.
They play around the same tempo as we play, so neither team should have the edge on that. Our tempo has been slowing as the season goes on. It seems to coincide with our offensive woes. Do we need to play a little faster?
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD'S OFFENSE
While our offensive ratings have gone down since the first game, our defensive ratings have improved slightly and their offensive ratings have gotten a little worse. We should be fine on this side of the ball.
Stanford is not a great offensive team, but they aren't terrible That seems to be a theme with Stanford. Not great, but not terrible. I guess in the mediocre Pac-12, that's good enough for 4th place in the league.
Stanford has two weaknesses. First they turn the ball over a lot. As mentioned, they turned it over 22 times in the first game. That's not a total aberration. They have had two games worse than that, and they have had 5 games with 20 or more. They have had only 5 games with fewer than 10 turnovers.
Second they are not a great FT shooting team. They aren't SC bad, but they are close.
OTHER FACTORS
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are 209th in the country in the percentage of shots they block. We are 44th in the country in not getting our shots blocked.
They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers.
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers.
As you might expect for a tall team, Stanford is very good on the boards. They out-rebounded us 29 to 36 in the first game. They rebound 35% of their misses which is #22 in the country.
Their A/TO ratio isn't very good, but that is because they have a lot of turnovers. They also have a lot of assists.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Stanford plays a lot of players, but Coach Haas plays different bench players in every game.. Noah Taitz hasn't played in 3 weeks, so I have crossed him off the list. You may not be able to keep track of all the guys going in and out.
Stanford is one of the few teams in the country who didn't bring in a transfer last season, and they only have three freshmen who play, so 8 of the 11 are guys who have been in the program.
5 of the 11 are juniors or seniors. The Cardinal have experience, but I am not sure you would call this a veteran.
Delaire is only senior who plays a lot, and he is their leading scorer. He is a threat both inside and outside. but he can get into trouble trying to post up. He leads the team in turnovers.
Harrison Ingram is the likely conference Freshman of the Year. He was a McDonalds AA, and he leads the team in rebounding. His shooting percentages have dropped off during the year, as often happens with freshmen. He's one of the few good athletes on this team.
Spencer Jones is considered their best 3-point threat, although his percentage is down this year. He is probably their best defender, and he leads the team in steals and blocks. That's right. On this tall team, a 6.7" player leads them in blocks with 0.6 per game.
Michael O'Connell is their primary ball-handler. He has an good 1.8 A/TO ratio, but he turns the ball over a lot. He is their only good option at PG, but his shooting has been pretty poor. (I know. I said the same thing about Marreon Jackson of ASU who scored 24 on us.)
Brandon Angel is probably their best sub. He shoots well (for this team), rebounds, and gets assists.
Maxime Raynaud is a 7' 1" freshman from France. He is an excellent rebounder, and he is 6 of 12 from the arc this season so Cody and Myles cannot sag off of him.
James Keefe is a former walk-on. You will hear a number of references to Adam Keefe, his father, on Saturday. He provides a physical presence inside, although he is not nearly as skilled as Dad.
Isa Silva will be a very good PG in the future, but that this point he turns the ball over way too much. However, he is a dangerous outside shooter. He is the only backup PG they have, so he will play. Occasionally, Haas will play both PG's together.
CONCLUSION
I don't know what to make of Stanford. They are inconsistent, but they have good wins.
In the first game I didn't think we would cover the 13-point line. We won by 23.
I think we match up well on defense. A lot will depend on their turnovers. If they match or beat their season average of 16, we should win.
However, the game probably will hinge on two things. First, can we make shots. Second, can we hang with them on the boards.
We are the better team, but that doesn't mean we will necessarily play like it, as we demonstrated in Tempe.
They need to because, it's on to Game #3 in our 4-game-in-10-day road trip. It doesn't look like an easy one.
Stanford is coming off walloping a decent Washington team.
We won pretty convincingly over them less than 2 weeks ago, but we only shot 37% from the floor and 14% from the arc. Unless Stanford is willing to turn the ball over 22 times again, this won't be nearly as easy
METRICS
Line: Estimated UCLA -7.5
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 81% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 80% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 76-67 .
Stanford | UCLA | |
NET | 89 | 14 |
KenPom Rank | 85 | 12 |
Sagarin Rank | 81 | 14 |
Torvick Rank | 107 | 10 |
SOS | 20 | 34 |
Record | 14-8 | 16-4 |
Stanford has played the second hardest schedule in the Pac-12, only behind Arizona St. UCLA is 4th.
STANFORD'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 3-2 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 6-0 |
Stanford | 4-5 | 2-3 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
Stanford is tied with Arizona for the most Quad 1 in the Pac-12. We are the only team in the league with 3 of them.
Those 4 Quad 1 wins are over SC (twice), WSU, and Wyoming who is #30 in the NET and #36 in Kenpom.
They also have a home win over Oregon, although that was before Oregon put it together.
Stanford is 4-4 over their last 8 games. Color them inconsistent.
Their worst loss is at Washington, who is not the horrible Huskies of the last two years.
This will be a Quad 3 game for us.
UCLA Road | 5-2 |
Stanford Road | 10-2 |
Stanford has been good at home, even if it is one of the most-deserted, quietest venues in college hoop.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE
Stanford Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 68 | 21 |
Torvick Rank | 76 | 21 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 68 | 78 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 156 | 188 |
FG Percent | 44% | 45% |
Eff FG Percent | 51% (210) | 50% (154) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% | 34% |
2-Pt Percent | 53% | 50% |
FT Percent | 72% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 14 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 12 | 10 |
UCLA's offensive ratings are dropping. We were an excellent offensive team. We haven't been lately. We have had 7 games where we shot under 40% for the game this season. Three of them are the last 3. (The others are Gonzaga, Marquette, Oregon, and at Utah.)
Our win over Stanford and the ASU are our two worst shooting performances of the year. If Stanford matches that defensive performance, it will be a long night.
They are quite a bit better at defending the 3 than at defending the 2. We should be trying to get it inside and only taking really high-quality 3-point shots.
Overall, this looks like a good matchup for us, but based on the last game against them and our recent games, I am not confident.
They play around the same tempo as we play, so neither team should have the edge on that. Our tempo has been slowing as the season goes on. It seems to coincide with our offensive woes. Do we need to play a little faster?
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Stanford Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 13 | 111 |
Torvick Rank | 16 | 157 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 66 | 68 |
FG Percent | 41% | 43% |
Eff FG Percent | 48% (85) | 49% (199) |
3-Pt Percent | 32% | 34% |
2-Pt Percent | 47% | 49% |
FT Percent | 67% | |
Assists Per Game | 13 | 13 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 14 | 16 |
While our offensive ratings have gone down since the first game, our defensive ratings have improved slightly and their offensive ratings have gotten a little worse. We should be fine on this side of the ball.
Stanford is not a great offensive team, but they aren't terrible That seems to be a theme with Stanford. Not great, but not terrible. I guess in the mediocre Pac-12, that's good enough for 4th place in the league.
Stanford has two weaknesses. First they turn the ball over a lot. As mentioned, they turned it over 22 times in the first game. That's not a total aberration. They have had two games worse than that, and they have had 5 games with 20 or more. They have had only 5 games with fewer than 10 turnovers.
Second they are not a great FT shooting team. They aren't SC bad, but they are close.
OTHER FACTORS
Stanford | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 8.9 | 3.5 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 49% | 57% |
Blocks | 2.6 | 3.9 |
Steals | 5.0 | 7.1 |
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are 209th in the country in the percentage of shots they block. We are 44th in the country in not getting our shots blocked.
They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers.
Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country, which usually would indicate they have a strong inside defense. However, they don't block a lot of shots. They are tall, but a hair slow and they are not great leapers.
As you might expect for a tall team, Stanford is very good on the boards. They out-rebounded us 29 to 36 in the first game. They rebound 35% of their misses which is #22 in the country.
Their A/TO ratio isn't very good, but that is because they have a lot of turnovers. They also have a lot of assists.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Stanford plays a lot of players, but Coach Haas plays different bench players in every game.. Noah Taitz hasn't played in 3 weeks, so I have crossed him off the list. You may not be able to keep track of all the guys going in and out.
Stanford is one of the few teams in the country who didn't bring in a transfer last season, and they only have three freshmen who play, so 8 of the 11 are guys who have been in the program.
5 of the 11 are juniors or seniors. The Cardinal have experience, but I am not sure you would call this a veteran.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | Turnovers | |
Jaiden Delaire F | Sr | 22 | 24 | 11 | 43% | 37% | 5 | 1 | 2.1 |
Harrison Ingram F | Fr | 22 | 30 | 11 | 40% | 31% | 7 | 3 | 1.9 |
Spencer Jones F | Jr | 21 | 26 | 10 | 46% | 35% | 4 | 1 | 1.5 |
Brandon Angel F | So | 22 | 19 | 8 | 48% | 35% | 3 | 1 | 0.9 |
Michael O'Connell G | So | 22 | 26 | 7 | 36% | 27% | 3 | 4 | 2.1 |
James Keefe F | Jr | 20 | 19 | 5 | 67% | 0% | 5 | 1 | 0.9 |
Maxime Raynaud F | Fr | 19 | 14 | 4 | 52% | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1.3 |
Isa Silva G | Fr | 22 | 12 | 4 | 42% | 54% | 1 | 1 | 1.3 |
Max Murrell F | So | 22 | 9 | 3 | 31% | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.5 |
Lukas Kisunas F | Sr | 22 | 10 | 3 | 62% | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0.9 |
Sam Beskind G | Jr | 19 | 7 | 0 | 14% | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0.4 |
Delaire is only senior who plays a lot, and he is their leading scorer. He is a threat both inside and outside. but he can get into trouble trying to post up. He leads the team in turnovers.
Harrison Ingram is the likely conference Freshman of the Year. He was a McDonalds AA, and he leads the team in rebounding. His shooting percentages have dropped off during the year, as often happens with freshmen. He's one of the few good athletes on this team.
Spencer Jones is considered their best 3-point threat, although his percentage is down this year. He is probably their best defender, and he leads the team in steals and blocks. That's right. On this tall team, a 6.7" player leads them in blocks with 0.6 per game.
Michael O'Connell is their primary ball-handler. He has an good 1.8 A/TO ratio, but he turns the ball over a lot. He is their only good option at PG, but his shooting has been pretty poor. (I know. I said the same thing about Marreon Jackson of ASU who scored 24 on us.)
Brandon Angel is probably their best sub. He shoots well (for this team), rebounds, and gets assists.
Maxime Raynaud is a 7' 1" freshman from France. He is an excellent rebounder, and he is 6 of 12 from the arc this season so Cody and Myles cannot sag off of him.
James Keefe is a former walk-on. You will hear a number of references to Adam Keefe, his father, on Saturday. He provides a physical presence inside, although he is not nearly as skilled as Dad.
Isa Silva will be a very good PG in the future, but that this point he turns the ball over way too much. However, he is a dangerous outside shooter. He is the only backup PG they have, so he will play. Occasionally, Haas will play both PG's together.
CONCLUSION
I don't know what to make of Stanford. They are inconsistent, but they have good wins.
In the first game I didn't think we would cover the 13-point line. We won by 23.
I think we match up well on defense. A lot will depend on their turnovers. If they match or beat their season average of 16, we should win.
However, the game probably will hinge on two things. First, can we make shots. Second, can we hang with them on the boards.
We are the better team, but that doesn't mean we will necessarily play like it, as we demonstrated in Tempe.