UCLA at Arizona State Preview

Stop 2 in our 4-game-in-10-day road trip should be a little easier than Stop 1.  

Arizona State has played the toughest schedule of any Pac-12 team and the third-toughest in the nation.  We are the fourth of five ranked teams in a row.

Don't expect this to be an automatic win.  They have two Quad 1 wins, and they led SC late in the game on Thursday.  

Before that game I wrote, "Don't be shocked if ASU plays SC tough. However be shocked if they actually win."  They found a lot of ways to lose a winnable game.  What is the ASU version of "Coug It"?

METRICS

Line:  UCLA -12.5

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 88% of the time.





ARIZONA STATE'S RECORD


Their 2 good wins are road wins over Oregon and Creighton.  They have a few good losses, too.  They lost to SC by 5, at San Diego St by 2, to San Francisco (#33 in the Net) by 1, and at Stanford by 3.  They have been hanging in there with some good teams.  

Their bad losses are to UC Riverside, Colorado, and Cal.  

So they are capable of hanging with almost anyone and losing to almost anyone.

They have lost 7 of their last 8 games with only a home win over a bad Utah team in that streak.   Unless you are Oregon State, there is always a worse team than you.


This will be a Quad 3 game for us.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S DEFENSE


(Note:  3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)

This looks like a pretty big mismatch, as long as we make our open shots.  The only thing they do well is defend the 2-point shot.   They are also pretty good at blocking shots and creating turnovers.

We are good at both the two-point and three-point shot.  Unless we match the 12 of 51 we shot on 3's in our losses, we should be just fine.  


UCLA'S DEFENSE VS ARIZONA STATE'S OFFENSE


This is the gang that can't shot straight.    They are the worst in thePac-12.   They are 345 in the country in effective FG%.  That's out of 358 teams!

The next worst major conference team is Boston College at 319.  

They shoot the 2 poorly and they shoot the 3 poorly.  They aren't even very good at the FT line.  

That's not to say they can't get hot on any given night.  Just ask Oregon.  

However, this looks like the matchup to solve our offensive woes.

OTHER FACTORS


For a change we should have a pretty big edge on the boards.  That's one of the ways they blew the SC game.  They gave up 20 offensive rebounds on the way to being out-rebounded 58-39.  

They give the other team an offensive rebound on 32% of their shots.  

Their A/TO ratio isn't great.  They don't get a ton of assists.  

PLAYERS

If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.

The Sun Devils play 9 players.  

After 9 players transferred out, Hurley filled his roster with transfers, Muhammad and Gaffney are from Ohio State, Heath is from Boston College, Horne is from Toledo, and Jackson is from Illinois State

Boakye and Neal are freshmen. Boakye is a 5-star center who was offered by UCLA, among others. He is the only scholarship center on the team.  He is athletic, but VERY raw.

There is a reason they are getting out-rebounded.


Horne is their leading scorer because he takes a lot more shots than anyone else.   Takes a lot of very difficult shots and some go in.   His is one of the two decent 3-point shooters on the team.  

Meanwhile, the bad shooters like to shoot.  Jackson, who is a poor outside shooter, shoots almost  twice as 3's as Heath.  Luther Muhammad shoots more than Heath, and he is only making 17% of them.   Muhammad shot 3's well as a freshman at Ohio State, but his shooting has gotten worse every year since.  That isn't how it is supposed to work.

Kimani Lawrence may be their best all-around player.  He's not a great outside threat, but he is skilled around the basket, and he is a good rebounder.    He plays bigger than his 6'6".  

Jalen Graham has been playing very well lately.  In 4 of their last 5 games (except at Arizona), he has scored in double figure, including 19 against SC.   Like Lawrence, he is very skilled around the basket.  For some reason, he seems to take a 3-point shot every game.  He hasn't made one in his 3 years at ASU.  He's a poor man's Cody Riley without the midrange jump shot.


They have a real point guard problem.  The only guy who can really handle the ball is Marreon Jackson, and he can't shoot.    Their next best A/TO guy is their starting center, Gaffney.  I would press them, particularly when Jackson is out of the game. 

Their two bigs, Gaffney and Boakye are both athletic, and not very skilled.  They get most of their points on offensive rebounds and put-backs.  They are both decent shot-blockers.  

Luther Muhammad hasn't been very good, but he will jack up a few ill-advised 3's every game.

They should probably spend most of the game feeding Lawrence and Graham on the inside.  They can then kick it out to Horne and Heath for 3's.

They won't.  All the wrong people will jack up step-back 3's.  

This roster is a mess.  Ten of new players.  Not enough talent.  Not enough size.  Not enough shooting.  No point guard.

CONCLUSION

This looks like a pretty even matchup.  

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Just kidding!  We are MUCH better on offense, MUCH better on defense, and MUCH better on the boards.   We have a better coach.

Yet strangely, this is a dangerous team.  They have a couple of good wins and sometimes they play close games with good teams.

I could see an easy blow-out, if we are shooting well or a close game if we are not.   I think we will shoot well.

I think the Curtain of Distraction may be the only fun Sun Devils fans have in this game.