Post by mhbruin on Jan 19, 2022 10:59:28 GMT -8
There are four bad teams in the Pac-12. We are about to play one of them.
If you are looking for a trap game look no further. We are playing the last-place team in the league. We are on the road and at altitude. Next up are two difficult games, a road trip to 4th place Colorado, and then #3 Arizona. It would be easy to overlook the Utes. This should be an easy win. I hate games like this. It's totally lose-lose.
Utah plays three players who played for the Utes last season, and one of those three may not play against the Bruins. Most of the players are new to the team. Also Coach Smith is introducing a new system. So you might say he is building this team from scratch.
That might go pretty well if he had a lot of talent. He doesn't. He has two 4-star players, and one of those is the guy who might not play. He has ZERO Top 100 players. Rankings aren't everything, but this isn't a very good roster.
So you have a team with no talent and no experience playing together. What could possibly go wrong? Just about everything.
Utah is in last place in the mediocre Pac-12. They have lost 6 in a row.
They play hard, and they play together. And we have to play them on the road and at altitude. However, this would be a BAD, BAD loss.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -9.5 (Estimated UCLA -9.5)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time.
We are a better team than Utah. I don't think you need a computer to figure that out.
KenPom rates them about as good as California, Nevada (remember Steve Alford?), Furman, or Hofstra. They are behind Coach Smith's previous team, Utah State (#65).
UTAH'S RECORD
The best thing you can say about Utah's record is they have no Quad 4 losses.
Utah's best win is a home win over Fresno State who is #54 in the NET, and #60 in Kenpom.
They have 2 losses to teams that are over #200 in the NET, and two more to teams in the 100's.
They have lost 6 straight.
Utah has splayed much better at home. They have yet to win a road game.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Utah doesn't have the worst defense in the Pac-12 according to KenPom. That honor goes to Oregon State. They are only the second worst.
UCLA doesn't have the best offense in the Pac-12 according to KenPom. Arizona does. UCLA is the second best.
Based on KenPom and Torvick this looks like a total mismatch. However, when you look at their defensive FG percent it is less clear. They don't let teams shoot a high percentage. There are decent at defending the 2, but they are VERY good at defending the 3. We aren't as reliant on the 3 as some other teams, so we match up fine.
They like to play really slowly. that makes a lot of sense, when you are going to be outmatched on talent for most games. Coach Smith is not a fool.
They will screen a lot and run a lot of pick and roll.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
Utah does one thing really well, shooting free throws. REALLY well! They are #11 in the nation in FT percentage. Fortunately, we don't foul a lot.
Otherwise, they are not bad at offense.
They are one of the worst 2-point shooting teams in the nation. They shoot under 48% which is #243 in the nation. (They are not the worst in the Pac-12. Washington and ASU are worse.) So it should not be a big surprise that they shoot a lot of 3's.
They will use a lot of clock on each possession. They want a low possession game.
Strangely, they shoot 42% from the field and we limit our opponents to 42%. The 3-point percentages of 33% match, too.
OTHER FACTORS
These factors favor the Bruins, except for the assist percentage. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. Other than Gach, they aren't very good at creating their own shot.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Utah has a bunch of role players and glue guys. There is no star-power.
They could lament who they lost to the transfer portal. Timmy Allen is the leading scorer and rebounder for #23 Texas. Alfonso Plummer is the second-leading scorer for #17 Illinois. Pelle Larson is an important sub for #3 Arizona, playing 20-25 minutes a game recently. Any of them would probably be Utah's best player this season.
Utah has one player who would play significant minutes for one of the better teams in the league, Branden Carlson. And he has missed their last three games. It is not clear if he will play against us. Coach Cronin doesn't think he will play.
Utah goes 9 or 10 deep.
First, look at the FG% numbers for the team. Other than Carlson and Thioune nobody shoots that well. They even have a player (Jenkins) who shoots better from distance than in close.
I have no idea if Branden Carlson will play against us. He has missed the last three games. He is considered their best player, and he leads them in scoring and blocks. He has 2.1 blocks per game. His is their rim protection. He is also their second-leading rebounder, behind an unlikely player.
I can't figure out boomerang transfer Both Gach. When he previously played at Utah, he looked like a star in the making. As you probably know, he transferred from Utah to Minnesota, played there for a year, and then transferred back to Utah. He looked really good in his first go-round at Utah, but he hasn't looked the same since his return. He probably hasn't left his heart in San Francisco, but he seems to have left his game in Minneapolis. He hasn't played poorly, but he hasn't looked like a star, either.
David Jenkins is their best outside threat and he shoots more threes than anyone else on the team. 73% of his shots are from beyond the arc. We need to play up on him.
Marco Anthony is a 6-5 guard who leads the Utes in rebounding. We need to keep him off the boards. He's a decent outside shooter, but doesn't take a lot of 3's.
Worster is one of the few young players on the roster. He does everything pretty well.
Stefanovic is half of the Utah Serbian contingent. He doesn't shoot that well, but he will still shoot quite a bit when he is in the game.
Riley Battin was a starter last season, but doesn't seem to have adapted to Smith's system. He isn't having a great year.
Lahat Thioune is pronounced "La-Hot Choon" (Gesundheit!) is a skinny 6-10 athlete, who has limited skills, but he can score around the basket and get some rebounds. He has potential, but so far isn't a great player.
Dusan "My Kingdom for a" Mahorcic ("Ma-Horse-Itch") is the other Serbian. He is 6-10, and he has pretty good footwork. I am a little surprised his FG percentage isn't higher.
CONCLUSION
The new Coach Smith is an excellent coach, based on his work at Utah State. However, he is dealing with a new roster, which is not very talented. There is only so much you can do without talent or experience playing together.
We are better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards. We have more talent and a lot more experience playing together. They don't have a single player who would start for us. I am not sure they have anyone who would play much for us.
I'll be surprised if we don't beat them fairly handily. OTOH, Cal is a bad team, and we only beat them by 8 on the road, and that was at sea level. This is a MUST WIN!
If you are looking for a trap game look no further. We are playing the last-place team in the league. We are on the road and at altitude. Next up are two difficult games, a road trip to 4th place Colorado, and then #3 Arizona. It would be easy to overlook the Utes. This should be an easy win. I hate games like this. It's totally lose-lose.
Utah plays three players who played for the Utes last season, and one of those three may not play against the Bruins. Most of the players are new to the team. Also Coach Smith is introducing a new system. So you might say he is building this team from scratch.
That might go pretty well if he had a lot of talent. He doesn't. He has two 4-star players, and one of those is the guy who might not play. He has ZERO Top 100 players. Rankings aren't everything, but this isn't a very good roster.
So you have a team with no talent and no experience playing together. What could possibly go wrong? Just about everything.
Utah is in last place in the mediocre Pac-12. They have lost 6 in a row.
They play hard, and they play together. And we have to play them on the road and at altitude. However, this would be a BAD, BAD loss.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -9.5 (Estimated UCLA -9.5)
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 83% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 75% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 80-71 .
Utah | UCLA | |
NET | 122 | 21 |
KenPom Rank | 114 | 13 |
Sagarin Rank | 103 | 13 |
Torvick Rank | 108 | 14 |
SOS | 46 | 72 |
Record | 8-10 | 11-2 |
We are a better team than Utah. I don't think you need a computer to figure that out.
KenPom rates them about as good as California, Nevada (remember Steve Alford?), Furman, or Hofstra. They are behind Coach Smith's previous team, Utah State (#65).
UTAH'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 6-0 |
Utah | 0-4 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 3-0 |
The best thing you can say about Utah's record is they have no Quad 4 losses.
Utah's best win is a home win over Fresno State who is #54 in the NET, and #60 in Kenpom.
They have 2 losses to teams that are over #200 in the NET, and two more to teams in the 100's.
They have lost 6 straight.
UCLA Road | 3-0 |
Utah Home | 6-3 |
Utah has splayed much better at home. They have yet to win a road game.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS UTAH'S DEFENSE
Utah Defense | UCLA Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 164 | 18 |
Torvick Rank | 173 | 17 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 69.3 | 80.6 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 209 | 118 |
FG Percent | 43% | 46% |
3-Pt Percent | 29% | 36% |
FT Percent | 70% | |
3-Point Share (rank) | 33.8% (153) | |
Assists Per Game | 13 | 15 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 9 | 10 |
(Note: 3-Point Share is the percentage of shots that are threes.)
Utah doesn't have the worst defense in the Pac-12 according to KenPom. That honor goes to Oregon State. They are only the second worst.
UCLA doesn't have the best offense in the Pac-12 according to KenPom. Arizona does. UCLA is the second best.
Based on KenPom and Torvick this looks like a total mismatch. However, when you look at their defensive FG percent it is less clear. They don't let teams shoot a high percentage. There are decent at defending the 2, but they are VERY good at defending the 3. We aren't as reliant on the 3 as some other teams, so we match up fine.
They like to play really slowly. that makes a lot of sense, when you are going to be outmatched on talent for most games. Coach Smith is not a fool.
They will screen a lot and run a lot of pick and roll.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS UTAH'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Utah Offense | |
KenPom Rank | 20 | 78 |
Torvick Rank | 26 | 62 |
Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 71 |
Tempo (Rank in US) | 118 | 209 |
FG Percent | 42% | 42% |
3-Pt Percent | 33% | 33% |
3-Point Share | 39% (153) | |
FT Percent | 80% | |
Assists Per Game | 12 | 14 |
Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 13 |
Utah does one thing really well, shooting free throws. REALLY well! They are #11 in the nation in FT percentage. Fortunately, we don't foul a lot.
Otherwise, they are not bad at offense.
They are one of the worst 2-point shooting teams in the nation. They shoot under 48% which is #243 in the nation. (They are not the worst in the Pac-12. Washington and ASU are worse.) So it should not be a big surprise that they shoot a lot of 3's.
They will use a lot of clock on each possession. They want a low possession game.
Strangely, they shoot 42% from the field and we limit our opponents to 42%. The 3-point percentages of 33% match, too.
OTHER FACTORS
Utah | UCLA | |
Rebound Margin | 3.3 | 6.6 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
Assist Percentage | 56% | 51% |
Blocks | 3.1 | 4.2 |
These factors favor the Bruins, except for the assist percentage. We are better on the boards, we handle the ball better. Other than Gach, they aren't very good at creating their own shot.
PLAYERS
If you are interested in my roster preview from the off season, click here.
Utah has a bunch of role players and glue guys. There is no star-power.
They could lament who they lost to the transfer portal. Timmy Allen is the leading scorer and rebounder for #23 Texas. Alfonso Plummer is the second-leading scorer for #17 Illinois. Pelle Larson is an important sub for #3 Arizona, playing 20-25 minutes a game recently. Any of them would probably be Utah's best player this season.
Utah has one player who would play significant minutes for one of the better teams in the league, Branden Carlson. And he has missed their last three games. It is not clear if he will play against us. Coach Cronin doesn't think he will play.
Utah goes 9 or 10 deep.
Class | Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | 3-Pt Attempts Per Minute | Rebounds | Assists | |
Branden Carlson | Jr | 13 | 24 | 14 | 52% | 28% | .09 | 6 | 2 |
Both Gach | Sr | 17 | 24 | 11 | 46% | 37% | .14 | 3 | 2 |
David Jenkins Jr. | Sr | 18 | 23 | 11 | 40% | 42% | .24 | 2 | 1 |
Marco Anthony | Sr | 15 | 29 | 9 | 40% | 35% | .06 | 7 | 2 |
Rollie Worster | So | 18 | 29 | 8 | 40% | 37% | .08 | 4 | 3 |
Lazar Stefanovic | Fr | 18 | 23 | 7 | 35% | 25% | .13 | 3 | 1 |
Riley Battin | Sr | 18 | 22 | 6 | 34% | 23% | .12 | 5 | 2 |
Lahat Thioune | Jr | 16 | 13 | 5 | 72% | 0% | 4 | 0 | |
Dusan Mahorcic | Sr | 10 | 13 | 6 | 45% | 0% | 4 | 1 | |
Gabe Madsen | Jr | 12 | 11 | 3 | 34% | 37% | .23 | 1 | 1 |
First, look at the FG% numbers for the team. Other than Carlson and Thioune nobody shoots that well. They even have a player (Jenkins) who shoots better from distance than in close.
I have no idea if Branden Carlson will play against us. He has missed the last three games. He is considered their best player, and he leads them in scoring and blocks. He has 2.1 blocks per game. His is their rim protection. He is also their second-leading rebounder, behind an unlikely player.
I can't figure out boomerang transfer Both Gach. When he previously played at Utah, he looked like a star in the making. As you probably know, he transferred from Utah to Minnesota, played there for a year, and then transferred back to Utah. He looked really good in his first go-round at Utah, but he hasn't looked the same since his return. He probably hasn't left his heart in San Francisco, but he seems to have left his game in Minneapolis. He hasn't played poorly, but he hasn't looked like a star, either.
David Jenkins is their best outside threat and he shoots more threes than anyone else on the team. 73% of his shots are from beyond the arc. We need to play up on him.
Marco Anthony is a 6-5 guard who leads the Utes in rebounding. We need to keep him off the boards. He's a decent outside shooter, but doesn't take a lot of 3's.
Worster is one of the few young players on the roster. He does everything pretty well.
Stefanovic is half of the Utah Serbian contingent. He doesn't shoot that well, but he will still shoot quite a bit when he is in the game.
Riley Battin was a starter last season, but doesn't seem to have adapted to Smith's system. He isn't having a great year.
Lahat Thioune is pronounced "La-Hot Choon" (Gesundheit!) is a skinny 6-10 athlete, who has limited skills, but he can score around the basket and get some rebounds. He has potential, but so far isn't a great player.
Dusan "My Kingdom for a" Mahorcic ("Ma-Horse-Itch") is the other Serbian. He is 6-10, and he has pretty good footwork. I am a little surprised his FG percentage isn't higher.
CONCLUSION
The new Coach Smith is an excellent coach, based on his work at Utah State. However, he is dealing with a new roster, which is not very talented. There is only so much you can do without talent or experience playing together.
We are better on offense, better on defense, better on the boards. We have more talent and a lot more experience playing together. They don't have a single player who would start for us. I am not sure they have anyone who would play much for us.
I'll be surprised if we don't beat them fairly handily. OTOH, Cal is a bad team, and we only beat them by 8 on the road, and that was at sea level. This is a MUST WIN!