Post by mhbruin on Dec 6, 2021 13:06:57 GMT -8
Marquette has a new coach with a new system. Many of their best players transferred out when the coach was fired, so 7 of the 10 rotation players are new to the school. Also 7 of the 10 are listed as freshmen. You might expect the team to be a mess. I certainly did. We would both be wrong.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
MARQUETTE'S RECORD
This is a Quad 1 game for both teams.
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MARQUETTE'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and MSU allows their opponents to shoot 42.5%.
I think this is where the game gets decided. Everything revolves around their pressure defense. They don't always press full court. I think they press full court after a dead ball and 3/4 court after they make a basket. They are going aggressively after steals, and they want to speed up the game. They want the turnovers and fast break baskets.
As you can see, they play a VERY fast tempo. It will be important that we don't turn the ball over and that we don't get sped up. We are good at not turning the ball over, at least when we aren't playing Gonzaga.
In half-court defense they hedge ball screens, and try to double the ball as much as possible.
The refs could help us out in this game. They reach a lot on defense, and if they call all those fouls, we will get a lot of FT practice.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MARQUETTE'S OFFENSE
The computers see us having the edge on this side of the ball. As you might expect for a fast-tempo team, they score quite a bit, but they don't shoot a great percentage.
They play mostly 5-out, with the big sometimes cutting toward the hoop. However, their favorite play is to drive towards the hoop, and hope that that defense helps. If so, they like to kick it out for a 3, preferably from the corner. They shoot 3's MUCH better from the corner than from straight away.
Overall, they are not a great 3-point shooting team, but certain players are dangerous.
OTHER FACTORS
We should have a big edge on the boards.
Our ball handling is better based on the A/TO ratio.
They assist on more of their baskets. We have more guys who can create their own shots.
Their bigs a good shot-blockers.
PLAYERS
Marquette goes 10 deep. Since they play a very fast tempo and press a lot, they need to rotate bodies a lot.
Although, this rotation includes 7 freshmen, this is the COVID era. Four of those freshmen played last season, two at Marquette and two at other schools. However, they are still listed as freshmen.
Tyler Kolek is a good PG who does an excellent job of running the team. He has a very good 2.0 A/TO ratio. The problem is he is a poor shooter, or he has been this season. He shot much better last season at George Mason. Here's hoping he doesn't choose Saturday to discover his shooting form.
Justin Lewis is their best offensive player. He was a 4-star out of HS, with offers from several major schools. He has a nice variety of offensive moves.
Morsell was their leading scorer earlier and seems to have slowed down a bit, but he is still their best outside shooter. He was a 4-star out of HS, with offers from Villanova, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati.
Kuath and Ighodaro are their two bigs at 6-10 and 6-9. They are both pretty athletic. Kuath is a very good shot-blocker, with 3 blocks per game. As you can tell from the shooting percentages, neither shoots very far from the rim.
CONCLUSION
On paper, we are the better team. We have better players, we play better offense, better defense, and we should dominate the boards.
However, they have some things going for them. First they will be playing at home and they should a have a great crowd. Second, it is a fairly early game for us at 11:30 am. Finally, they like to junk up the game and get us out of what we like to do.
If we protect the ball and don't get sped up, we should do fine. We are a veteran team, with experience in those pressure games in the NCAA tournament. I like our chances.
METRICS
Line: UCLA TBD
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 71% of the time.
Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 74% of the time.
Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 80-77.
| Marquette | UCLA | |
| NET | 60 | 30 |
| KenPom Rank | 75 | 8 |
| Sagarin Rank | 57 | 14 |
| SOS | 63 | 158 |
| Record | 8-2 | 7-1 |
MARQUETTE'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5-0 |
| Marquette | 1-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 |
This is a Quad 1 game for both teams.
| UCLA on the Road | 1-0 |
| Marquette at Home | 5-0 |
UCLA'S OFFENSE VS MARQUETTE'S DEFENSE
I am changing up the stats to match each team's offense with the other team's defense. For example, UCLA shoots 46.2% from the field and MSU allows their opponents to shoot 42.5%.
Marquette Defense | UCLA Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 57 | 8 |
| Torvick Rank | 74 | 8 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 70 | 83 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 2 | 117 |
| FG Percent | 42.2% | 46.5% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 31.6% | 39.2% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21 | 21 |
| FT Percent | 62% | 72% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 18 | 17 |
| Assists Per Game | 14 | 16 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 15 | 10 |
I think this is where the game gets decided. Everything revolves around their pressure defense. They don't always press full court. I think they press full court after a dead ball and 3/4 court after they make a basket. They are going aggressively after steals, and they want to speed up the game. They want the turnovers and fast break baskets.
As you can see, they play a VERY fast tempo. It will be important that we don't turn the ball over and that we don't get sped up. We are good at not turning the ball over, at least when we aren't playing Gonzaga.
In half-court defense they hedge ball screens, and try to double the ball as much as possible.
The refs could help us out in this game. They reach a lot on defense, and if they call all those fouls, we will get a lot of FT practice.
UCLA'S DEFENSE VS MARQUETTE'S OFFENSE
UCLA Defense | Marquette State Offense | |
| KenPom Rank | 21 | 95 |
| Torvick Rank | 37 | 126 |
| Points per game (allowed / scored) | 67 | 75 |
| Tempo (Rank in US) | 117 | 2 |
| FG Percent | 43.0% | 44.1% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 34.1% | 32.4% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 21 | 26 |
| FT Percent | 70% | 70% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 15 | 22 |
| Assists Per Game | 12 | 16 |
| Turnovers (created / committed) | 13 | 14 |
The computers see us having the edge on this side of the ball. As you might expect for a fast-tempo team, they score quite a bit, but they don't shoot a great percentage.
They play mostly 5-out, with the big sometimes cutting toward the hoop. However, their favorite play is to drive towards the hoop, and hope that that defense helps. If so, they like to kick it out for a 3, preferably from the corner. They shoot 3's MUCH better from the corner than from straight away.
Overall, they are not a great 3-point shooting team, but certain players are dangerous.
OTHER FACTORS
| Marquette | UCLA | |
| Rebound Margin | -1 | 9 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 8 | 13 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 29 | 27 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 1.1 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| Assist Percentage | 63.5% | 51.6% |
| Blocks | 5.1 | 4.3 |
We should have a big edge on the boards.
Our ball handling is better based on the A/TO ratio.
They assist on more of their baskets. We have more guys who can create their own shots.
Their bigs a good shot-blockers.
PLAYERS
Marquette goes 10 deep. Since they play a very fast tempo and press a lot, they need to rotate bodies a lot.
Although, this rotation includes 7 freshmen, this is the COVID era. Four of those freshmen played last season, two at Marquette and two at other schools. However, they are still listed as freshmen.
They got some quality transfers. Kolek transferred from George Mason, where he was the A-10 Freshman of the Year. Prosper transferred from Maryland, Kuath transferred from Oklahoma, and Morsell transferred from Maryland.
| Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | ||
| Justin Lewis | Fr | 10 | 31 | 15 | 46% | 32% | 8 | 2 |
| Daryl Morsell | Sr | 10 | 29 | 14 | 44% | 40% | 4 | 3 |
| Tyler Kolek | Fr + | 10 | 28 | 7 | 28% | 22% | 4 | 6 |
| Kameron Jones | Fr | 10 | 22 | 8 | 39% | 33% | 2 | 2 |
| Kur Kuath | Sr | 10 | 18 | 6 | 74% | 0% | 4 | 0 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Fr + | 10 | 18 | 5 | 35% | 24% | 4 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | Fr + | 10 | 18 | 5 | 76% | 0% | 5 | 1 |
| Stevie Mitchell | Fr | 10 | 15 | 5 | 43% | 33% | 2 | 2 |
| David Joplin | Fr | 10 | 10 | 5 | 40% | 34% | 2 | 2 |
| Greg Eliott | Jr | 7 | 11 | 4 | 37% | 42% | 1 | 0 |
Tyler Kolek is a good PG who does an excellent job of running the team. He has a very good 2.0 A/TO ratio. The problem is he is a poor shooter, or he has been this season. He shot much better last season at George Mason. Here's hoping he doesn't choose Saturday to discover his shooting form.
Justin Lewis is their best offensive player. He was a 4-star out of HS, with offers from several major schools. He has a nice variety of offensive moves.
Morsell was their leading scorer earlier and seems to have slowed down a bit, but he is still their best outside shooter. He was a 4-star out of HS, with offers from Villanova, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati.
Kuath and Ighodaro are their two bigs at 6-10 and 6-9. They are both pretty athletic. Kuath is a very good shot-blocker, with 3 blocks per game. As you can tell from the shooting percentages, neither shoots very far from the rim.
BTW, they have another player named "Cameron Brown" who is not Kameron Jones, but he won't play.
CONCLUSION
On paper, we are the better team. We have better players, we play better offense, better defense, and we should dominate the boards.
However, they have some things going for them. First they will be playing at home and they should a have a great crowd. Second, it is a fairly early game for us at 11:30 am. Finally, they like to junk up the game and get us out of what we like to do.
If we protect the ball and don't get sped up, we should do fine. We are a veteran team, with experience in those pressure games in the NCAA tournament. I like our chances.