Was this Year A Disappointment?Based on expectations, certainly. When you return everyone from a Final Four team, and add a McDonald's All American, as well as two other Top 60 players, expectations were sky high. We were ranked #2 pre-season. We began the season with a win over preseason #4 Villanova. It doesn't seem like we ever quite lived up to the expectations. A #4 seed and a Sweet 16 exit is disappointing.
Of course, anyone can play the expectation game. Gonzaga was ranked #1 preseason, was ranked #1 most of the year, and was the top overall seed. They went out in the Sweet 16.
Texas was #5 in the preseason poll and didn't make the Sweet 16.
Many of us are still disappointed. Did this team under-perform or were expectations unreasonable.
The Last Two Seasons | 2022 | 2021 |
Record | 27-8 | 22-10 |
Conference Record | 15-5 | 13-6 |
Pac-12 Finish | 2nd | 4th |
NCAA Seed | #4 | #11 |
KenPom Rank | #11 | #13 |
Offensive Efficiency | 12 | 11 |
Defensive Efficiency | 14 | 46 |
2-point Percent | 49.5% | 50.3% |
3-point Percent | 35.4% | 37.2% |
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By most objective measures, we were a better team this year. Our offense was about the same, but our defense was much better. Our record was better.
Significantly our 3-point shooting dropped off by 1.8%. That may not seem like a lot, but it can be the difference between winning a close game in the Sweet 16 and losing one.
We were a better team with a better record, but we were not a great team.
So what went wrong?
InjuriesThis clearly had an effect. Two players, Etienne and McClendon didn't play at all. Only two players played every game.
Even when guys played, there we so many times they were not 100%. Does anyone doubt that we beat North Carolina with a healthy Jaime Jaquez?
PlayersJohnny Juzang | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 31.8 | 32.3 | -1.5 |
Points Per 40 Minutes | 19.9 | 19.8 | 0.1 |
FG% | 43.2% | 44.1% | -0.9% |
3-point Percent | 36.0% | 35.3% | 0.7% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 6.0 | 5.1 | 0.9 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
Turnovers Per 50 Minutes | 2.0 | 2.0 | --- |
Points in Last 5 games | 11.4 | 22.8 |
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Johnny was essentially the same player he was last season with one big exception. During the NCAA tournament last season we caught lightning in a bottle. Johnny went on a epic run of great games in 2021. He had good games in 2022, but they were in February. The last time he scored 20 this season was in early February. He only shot over 50% once after February 17th.
Three points shooting? In his last 15 game, he was 13 of 43 or 23%.
Could we have expected Johnny to repeat his performance from last year's tournament? Expected? No. Hoped for? If he were in his mid-season form, yes. The way he was playing going into the tournament? No way.
I have no clue what was wrong. Was he playing hurt? Did he lose his confidence? Was last season a fluke? We will never know.
However, our big star from last season was not playing like a star this year. That hurt us a lot. Our main go-to guy of 2021, wasn't playing the same in 2022.
Jaime Jaquez, Jr | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 30.5 | 34.9 | -4.5 |
Points Per 40 Minutes | 18.2 | 14.1 | 4.1 |
FG Percent | 47.2% | 48.6% | -1.4% |
2-Point Percent | 52.2% | 53.0% | -0.8% |
3-point Percent | 27.6% | 39.4% | -11.8% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 7.5 | 7.0 | 0.5 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
Turnovers Per 40 Minutes | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
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Jaimie was essentially the player he was last season. His scoring was up a bit. His 2-point shooting was a little worse, but his 3-point shooting fell off a lot.
He rebounded better and handled the ball better.
However, he didn't show real improvement. Perhaps playing on bad ankles does that.
Jules Bernard | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 30.1 | 29.3 | 0.8 |
Points Per 40 Minutes | 17.1 | 14.0 | 3.1 |
FG Percent | 41.9% | 44.1% | -2.2% |
2-Point Percent | 49.2% | 46.8% | 2.4% |
3-point Percent | 33.7% | 39.6% | -5.9% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 6.2 | 7.0 | -0.8 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 2.3 | 2.2 | |
Turnovers Per 40 Minutes | 1.3 | 1.7 | -0.4 |
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Jules is similar to Jaimie. Everything is similar to last year except he score more, but had worse 3-point shooting.
Tyger Campbell | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 32.4 | 33.7 | -1.3 |
Points Per 40 Minutes | 14.7 | 12.4 | 2.3 |
FG Percent | 44.4% | 42.9% | 1.5% |
3-point Percent | 41.0% | 25.0% | 16% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 5.3 | 6.4 | -0.9 |
Turnovers Per 40 Minutes | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
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Tyger was our most consistent player down the stretch. The improvement in his 3-point shooting was remarkable. He managed to cut down on turnover numbers that were already remarkably low.
The only negative is his assists dropped a little. That is partly the result of shooting a bit more and the rest of the team shooting a bit worse. It is hard to get assists unless the other guy makes the basket.
Cody Riley | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 21.6 | 23.3 |
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Points Per 40 Minutes | 13.5 | 17.1 | -3.6 |
FG Percent | 46.4% | 53.8% | -7.4% |
2-point Percent | 46.2% | 54.3% | -8.1% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 7.2 | 9.2 | 2.0 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 1.8 | 2.3 | -0.5 |
Turnovers Per 40 Minutes | 1.6 | 3.4 | -1.8 |
Blocks per 40 Minutes | 0.8 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
Cody had the most disappointing season of the 5 core players. His scoring, shooting, rebounding, and blocks were all down.
Someone who knows more about the game than I do is sure that Cody played most of the season injured. He didn't have the lift he needed to play close to the basket.
He did improve his jump shot and was 4 for 8 on threes for the season.
Myles Johnson
Myles Johnson was both a delight and a disappointment. He was a bit slower than I had hoped. He was clearly our best rebounder and shot blocker, but lacked offensive skills. He mostly didn't even try to score. Only Kenneth Nwuba and Russell Strong attempted fewer shots per 40 minutes on the floor.
He also had trouble defending the ball screen. After a switch, he was ill-equipped to guard someone away from the basket.
I think most of us expected more. He is still a great kid.
Peyton WatsonIf there is a poster child for not living up to expectations, it is Peyton Watson. Don't get me wrong. He will be a fine college player, and maybe a fine pro, but it wasn't this year.
He shot poorly (32%). He turned the ball over a lot, leading the team at 3 turnovers every 40 minutes.
Attesting to his athleticism, he was second to Myles in blocks per 40 minutes. He will get there, but he wasn't a big factor this season.
Jalen Clark | 2022 | 2021 | Difference |
Minutes Per Game | 18.1 | 9.0 | +9.1 |
Points Per 40 Minutes | 14.9 | 11.2 | +3.7 |
FG% | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6% |
3-point Percent | 25.9% | 20.0% | +5.9% |
Rebounds Per 40 Minutes | 8.4 | 10.8 | -2.2 |
Assists Per 40 Minutes | 2.3 | 0.9 | +1.4 |
Turnovers Per 40 Minutes | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
Blocks Per 40 Minutes | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.3 |
There is no question Clark was a big asset on defense. On offense, there was slight improvement. He scored more, mostly because he shot more. His 3-point shooting improved from a terrible 20% to a poor 26%.
He had that one 25-point explosion against Washington, but otherwise he reached double figures in 5 of 32 games.
TalentThis is a talented team, but hardly elite. There is no lottery pick on the roster. There may not be a first-rounder. Nobody looks like a sure-fire NBA prospect.
Look at the Top 10 teams in the polls. Here are projected first-round picks a
ccording to NBADraft.NetGonzga has Holmgern
Auburn has Jabari Smith & Walker Kessler
Duke has 3 lottery picks.
Arizona has Mathurin
Baylor has Kendall Brown & Jeremy Sohan
Kansas has Obaji
Tennessee has Kennedy Chandler
Kentucky has 3 projected second-round picks.
Other teams with second-round picks include Gonzaga (2), Arizona, Auburn, and Tennessee.
UCLA has none on the current roster. (Neither does Villanova).
Clearly NBA talent isn't everything. Look at St. Peters (except in the Sweet 16.)
Of the teams in the Final Four, only Duke and Kansas have first round picks. The other have no projected draft picks.
My point is that UCLA doesn't have the roster of a typical Top 10 team. We were not as talented as Gonzaga, or Arizona, or Kansas, or Baylor, or Duke or Kentucky or Auburn.
The fact that we were #11 or #12 in the polls is an indication that we are doing something right.
The North Carolina GameComing into the tournament, I was worried about facing a team with lots of 3-point shooting, quick guards, and a hot player who could take over a game.
We ran into those things in the North Carolina game. They had loads of 3-point shooting. That didn't kill us. They only shot 32% for the game.
They had quick guards. As much as Caleb Love's 3-pointers hurt us, it was his blow-by to the rim for layups that was the real killer. Cronin said as much in the post-game presser.
Last season, we didn't run into a lot of lightning quick guards in the tournament. Alabama had Quinerly, but he didn't have a great game against us.
As for Caleb Love, he is very inconsistent. He is as likely to miss 5 three-pointers in a row as to make a bunch like he did in the second half. We had the bad luck to catch him on a career night. Many of those outside shots were well defended.
Finally, we had problems on the boards. The shots that put us away were off of offensive rebounds. We were basically two defensive rebounds away from moving on. No boards, no rings.
Yet with all that we were in the game until the very end. It was close all the way. a huge problem the lack of a go-to guy down the stretch. Last year we had Johnny. This year he tried to play that role, but he couldn't do it for us. Neither could Jaime. Maybe Tyger or Jules should have asserted themselves more, but that wasn't normal for our team.
Could we have used David Singleton in this game? You bet! Sadly, circumstances beyond his control kept him out of the game.
Last season we didn't run into a player on fire. We could count on Johnny. And we still were in a lot of close games in the tournament that could have gone either way. This year we ran into a hot player, we couldn't count on Johnny, and we lost a very close game.
This was a painful loss, in large part because it was a winnable game. If you are playing close games in a one-and-done tournament, you will usually eventually lose one. We happened to lose one in the Sweet 16.
ConclusionMost of us came into the season with excitement and high expectations. We had everyone returning from a Final Four team. With another year, all those players were sure to improve.
New players were joining the team who would almost certainly be big contributors.
The season didn't go that way. We didn't see the player improvement we hoped for. The only player who took a significant step forward was Tyger with his 3-point shooting. Cody wasn't nearly as good as last season.
Why didn't our players improve more? Maybe it was injuries. We don't know who was playing hurt and how impaired they were. It is also possible they maxed out their talent. At a certain point there is only so much room for improvement, unless you are one of those freaks of nature.
Was coaching to blame? I tend to doubt it. All reports are that this is an outstanding coaching staff. Players developed under Cronin at Cincinnati. Against North Carolina, we got good shots and missed them. Coaching puts a player into position to make a shot. Players have to make them. I would want to see more of a pattern before laying this on the coaches. A
As for the new players, two never saw the floor, and the other two were disappointing. I don't suppose either was a big surprise to people who watched Myles Johnson at Rutgers and Peyton Watson in high school.
If you judge this team by our result in the tournament, it was a disappointing year. If you judge it by our overall record, we showed marked improvement.
If you judge this team by whether players improved over last year, it was a disappointing year. If you take into account the whole raft of injuries, it may not seem so disappointing. It just makes you wonder what would have happened if we were healthier.
Injuries are part of the game, but they are not inevitable. Then again, of North Carolina's starters, 4 never missed a game. Leaky Black was the only starter to miss a game, and he missed one game. Our starters missed 17 games, and most returned with nagging injuries. Injuries may be part of the game, but we had pretty bad luck with them this season.
In retrospect, this team was never going to meet the lofty expectations of a pre-season #2 ranking. They probably accomplished what they were capable of. However, they were tantalizingly close to quite a bit more.
| 2019* | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
Win / Loss | 17-16 | 19-12 | 22-10 | 27-8 |
Conference Win / Loss | 9-9 | 12-6 | 13-6 | 15-5 |
Final AP Poll | No votes | 2 votes | No votes | #11 |
KenPom Rank | 102 | 78 | 13 | 11 |
KenPom Offense | 88 | 51 | 11 | 12 |
KenPom Defense | 137 | 112 | 46 | 11 |
* Pre-Cronin
It is pretty clear our program is headed in the right direction.
Was it a disappointing season, or a step in the right direction? If you want to judge the season on the outcome of one game, it was disappointing. If you look at the bigger picture, there was a lot to be proud of.
27 wins is our highest number of wins since 2014, when Wanaah Bail played for UCLA. He had a little help from Norman Powell, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, the Wear twins, Zach Lavine, and Isaac Hamilton. And there was a freshman named Bryce Alford. That team lost in the Sweet 16.
To find a better season, you would have to go back to 2008, when Ben Howland was taking us to the Final Four with Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Darren Collison, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Lorenzo Mata, and Alfred Aboya.
Before the Howland era, to find a better win total, you would have to go back to 1995. Some of us were alive back then.
Before that, you would have to go back to John Wooden's last season. So we exceeded 27 wins 5 times in 46 years.
Also, remember when Mick Cronin couldn't beat Andy Enfield? We put that horse out of it's misery.
Next SeasonWe will have a major upgrade in talent and athleticism. There will be new faces. I have no idea who will be returning, but we should be a legitimate Top 10 team and championship contender.
I grew up a Chicago Cubs fan, so I know the mantra: Wait until next year!