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mhbruin
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Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 6, 2021 16:50:19 GMT -8

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Post by mhbruin on Apr 6, 2021 16:50:19 GMT -8

It's a bit early too put a lot of weight on stats, but that won't stop me from doing something dumb. Not much does.

You might look at Stanford's 3-4 record and conclude they aren't very good. I think that underestimates them. Their losses are to quality teams, and no one blew them out.

We are clearly the better team, but road games are always dangerous. This is no cupcake.

METRICS

Line: UCLA -6,5

ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 59% of the time.

Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 66% of the time.69-65

Nolan Prediction: UCLA wins 74-62 .

~~KemPom: UCLA wins % of the time~~

	Stanford	UCLA
NET	106	11
KenPom Rank	65	12
Sagarin Rank	79	13
Torvick Rank	58	6
SOS	47	178
Record	3-4	5-2

STANFORD''S RECORD

	QUAD 1	QUAD 2	QUAD 3	QUAD 4
UCLA	0-2	0-0	1-0	4-0
Stanford	0-3	0-0	1-1	2-0

Stanford has played a tough schedule including Wisconsin, San Diego State, and Memphis. They lost all those games, each by 10-12 points.

UCLA Road / Neutral	0-2
Stanford Home	2-1

Stanford's home loss was to San Diego State. We have not played a true road game, yet.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS STANFORD'S DEFENSE

	Stanford Defense	UCLA Offense
KenPom Rank	40	8
Torvick Rank	40	5
Points per game (allowed / scored)	63	83
Tempo (Rank in US)	264 of 358	164
FG Percent	42%	50%
Effective FG Percent	47.9% (126)	56.3% (27)
3-Pt Percent	32.2% (149)	38.1% (24)
3-Pt Rate	37.6% (175)	29.8% (329)
2-Pt Percent	47.4% (134)	55.3% (43)
FT Percent		71%
Offensive Rebound Percent	19.3% (7)	31.9% (104)
Assist Percent	48.0% (100)	55.1% (86)
Turnovers (created / committed)	17.8% (226)	14.3% (15)
Block Percent	11.4% (89)	4.8% (17)

Stanford's strength is their defense. UCLA is even better on offense.

We are an excellent 3-point shooting team, but we don't shoot a lot of them. This is probably because we are so good at our 2-point shots.

Stanford is average at defending both the 2 and the 3.

The one thing they are exceptional at is protecting their defensive boards. They don't give up a lot of offensive rebounds. OTOH, they are one of the slower tempo teams in the country, so I don't think we need to worry too much about them fast breaking.

Advantage: UCLA

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS STANFORD''S OFFENSE

	UCLA Defense	Stanford Offense
KenPom Rank	22	105
Torvick Rank	31	95
Points per game (allowed / scored)	64	67
FG Percent	42%	42%
Effective FG Percent	47.9% (125)	48,4% (222)
3-Pt Percent	29.6% (88)	28.3% (317)
3-Pt Rate	42.6% (299)	43.1% (77)
2-Pt Percent	50.4% (199)	47.4% (134)
FT Percent		68.9% (210)
Offensive Rebound Percent	26.1% (85)	31.0% (129)
Assist Percent	52.7% (217)	50.9% (189)
Turnovers (created / committed)	24.1% (31)	21.1% (266)
Block Percent	11.4% (85)	9.1% (190)

Stanford is not a very good shooting team, particularly from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. We are very good at defending the arc. If they insist on shooting a lot of 3's, this will be an easy win for us (unless they suddenly find their shot against us.)

If Jarod Haase is smart (and I think he is), he will try to get his team to shoot more two-point shots, since they shoot them better, and we don't defend them as well.

They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but we good at keeping other teams off the offensive board. This is a pretty even matchup, but we might be able to get some fast-break baskets if we push the ball.

Even better for our fast breaks, Stanford turns the ball over a lot, and we are damned good at getting turnovers. If Jaylen Clark doesn't play, we might not generate as many turnovers.

Advantage: UCLA, by a significant margin.

OTHER FACTORS

	Stanford	UCLA
Rebound Margin	7.9	4.2
Assist-Turnover Ratio	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1

Overall, Stanford has been very good on the boards. We are good. They are better.

UCLA is #7 in the nation in A/TO ratio. We are terrific at both assists and taking care of the ball. Stanford is #268. They aren't very good. Their two primary ball handers are at 0.8, which is terrible for a PG. We have a massive advantage in ball-handling.

PLAYERS

North Carolina is a 5-man team. 88% of the points come from starters, and that includes points scored by subs during any garbage time and points scored by Dawson Garcia who started 16 games and left the team . 69% of the rebounds come from the starters. The starters get 88% of the assists.

	Class	Size	Recruiting	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds / 40 Min.	Assists	Blocks / 40 Min.	FG %	3-Pt %	3-Pt Freq *	A/TO Ratio
Spencer Jones F	Sr	6'7"	3-star #160	6	27	11	6	1.2	2.3	36%	28%		0.8
Harrison Ingram F	So	6'7"	5-star #19	7	28	10	8	3.3	1.0	35%	32%		1.2
Michael Jones G	Sr	6'5"	Unranked	7	27	10	4	2.0	0.6	27%	19%		2.3
Brandon Angel F	Jr	6'8"	3-star #216	7	25	9	7	1.0		48%	27%		0.6
Maxime Raynaud F	So	7'1"	Unranked	7	19	8	13	0,7	1.8	58%	40%		0.6
James Keefe F	Sr	6'9"	3-star #339	7	20	5	9	0.9	0.9	67%			0.7
Max Murrell F	Jr	6'9"	4-star #120	7	14	5	9	0.6		47%	58%		1.0
Michael O'Connell G	Jr	6'2"	Unranked	7	21	4	4	1.7		40%	11%		0.8
Isa Silva G	So	6'4"	4-star #44	7	16	4	2	1.1		44%	14%		0.8

* 3-Pt Freq = Percent of his shots that are 3-point attempts.

The first thing you might notice is that this is a pretty tall team. Until you get to the two point guards, everyone is well over 6 feet.

Harrison Ingram gets all the ink as the "star of the team, probably because he was so highly rated out of HS. He's a good college player, but I don't think Ingram is an NBA player. Spencer Jones is their best player, even if he is shooting miserably. In fact, all three of their leading scorers aren't shooting very well

CONCLUSION

Stanford was considered a possible tournament team before the season. They haven't looked like it so far this season. But as mentioned, they are probably better than their record would indicate.

This will be our first true road game, and we will see how our freshmen handle it. Fortunately, this is Stanford, so it won't be a hostile environment.

We are clearly the better team. They turn the ball over a lot. We get a lot of turnovers. They are offensively challenged.

I feel pretty good about this one.

Go Bruins!

Last Edit: Dec 1, 2022 11:26:13 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 8, 2021 8:21:14 GMT -8

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Post by mhbruin on Apr 8, 2021 8:21:14 GMT -8

Finally, we get to the 1st-place Arizona Wildcats. Nobody predicted they would do this well. I predicted they would finish 7th.

Everyone expects that Arizona will add some quality transfers to their roster, but they haven't so far. This preview will be based on the roster they have, not the roster they might end up with.

Tommy Lloyd is the second luckiest first-year coach in America after Hubert Davis. He inherited a roster with a bunch of NBA talent. Mathurin was expected. Koloko came out of nowhere.

Plus he benefitted from having 6 who never missed a game. This included his 3 best players. I suspect this is the most in the Pac-12.

Then his biggest competition in the Pac-12 was beset by injuries. UCLA had only two players play every game, Myles Johnson and Jules Bernard.)

GRADUATING

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Justin Kier	37	6	20	7	3	2

Kier was an important sub for them, playing every game and averaging 20 minutes.

IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Christian Koloko	37	37	25	13	7	1
Bennedict Mathurin	37	37	33	18	6	3
Dalen Terry	37	37	28	8	5	4

Mathurin led Arizona in scoring. Overall they are losing 3 of their top 5 scorers.

Koloko averaged 2.8 blocks per game. He led the Wildcats in rebounds and blocks while shooting 64% from the floor.

Dalen Terry led Arizona in A/TO ratio at 2.8 and steals.

Tommy Lloyd inherited all of these guys.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
Kim Aiken Jr.	7	0	14	5	3	2
Shane Nowell	19	0	4	1	1	0

Nowell was the highest-rated recruit in last year's class, and he is leaving.

RETURNING

Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	FG%	3Pt%	A/TO	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Azuolas Tubelis	36	35	25	14	6	2	45%	37%	1.1	So 3	4	57
Kerr Kriisa	33	31	30	10	3	5	35%	34%	2.2	So 3	4	85
Pelle Larsson	37	2	21	7	3	2	48%	36%	1.2	So 3	3	203
Oumar Ballo	37	0	15	7	4	1	62%		0.6	So 3	4	78
Adama Bal	23	0	5	2	0	0	48%	47%	1.4	So	4	131
Tautvilas Tubelis	14	0	2	0	0	0	29%			Fr 1	2	513

At the moment, this looks like their starting lineup for next season.

They are returning two starters.

This is a nice core of returning players, but hardly elite talent. Of the four best teams in the league, they are the only one without a 5-star player.

They are also the only one without any 5th-year and 4th-year players. This is a relatively young team. When they go to their bench, they have to go to true freshmen, making them even younger.

Tubelis will play pro ball somewhere, whether in the NBA or overseas. He is a terrific player who would likely start for any team in the Pac-12.

Krissa is another future pro.

There is one more player on scholarship. I think it is Tautvilas Tubelis.

RECRUITS

(#116 class, #12 in Pac-12)

Player	Size	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Dylan Anderson	7-0 215	C	4	109	Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina, Gonzaga
Filip Borovicanin	6-8 180	SF		Unranked	Texas Tech, Xavier
Henri Veesaar	6-10	C		Unranked	- No other offers -

When's the last time Arizona had the lowest-rated recruiting class in the Pac-12? Has it happened since Lute Olson arrived in Tucson?

Part of it is that Tommy Lloyd seems to love recruiting overseas, and he gets guys who are unknown and unranked. His success with Arizona will depend a lot on how may of these players turn out to be quality players.

Arizona has 8 foreign players out of 9 scholarship players. There are Lithuanian twins Azuolas and Tautvilas Tubelis, Estonians Kerr Kriisa and Henri Veesaar, Adama Bal from France, Pelle Larsson from Sweden, Ballo from Mali, and Serbia's Filip Borovicanin.

Somehow, Dylan Anderson decided to join the United Nations team. He had offers from elite schools, so I assume he is good.

The two guys from Baltic States? Who knows? Arizona fans had better hope Tommy Lloyd does.

TRANSFERRING IN

Player

Size

Games

Starts

Minutes

Points

Rebounds

Assists

FG %

3-Pt %

From

Class

Recruiting

Stars

Recruiting

Rank

- None -

Arizona still has only nine players on its tentative 2022-23 roster and, among others, remains in pursuit of transfers such as Texas guard Courtney Ramey, Illinois forward Jacob Grandison and WSU forward Efe Abogidi.

CONCLUSION

At the moment Arizona has 9 scholarship players, but realistically only 8. Only 5 have who have ever played college basketball. The mix of players is 3 centers and 5 wings. They have one guy to back up 4 starters at the wings.

Clearly, this is not a workable roster. Lloyd desperately needs transfers.

----------------------

Last Edit: Jun 6, 2022 19:14:07 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:25:05 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:25:05 GMT -8

Next are the 3rd place USC Trojans. I thought they would be very good last season, and they were about as good as I expected, until March. Then they went 1-4, with only a 4-point win over Washington. They finished with a first-round exit as a #7.

They finally got the "can't lose to Mick Cronin" monkey off their back, by doing it twice. However, they have to prove they can beat Stanford after losing twice to the Cardinal.

GRADUATING

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Chevez Goodwin	34	34	25	11	6	1

Goodwin was their 2nd-leading rebounder, a double-digit scorer, and a solid post player for them. They will miss him.

IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Isaiah Mobley	32	32	34	14	8	3

Andy Enfield has finally run out of Mobleys. Isaiah led the team in scoring, rebounds, and blocks. So SC lost their two starting big men.

However, Enfield got good news when starters Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson withdrew from the draft and returned to school.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
Max Agbonkpolo	33	18	21	8	4	1	Wyoming
Ethan Anderson	34	15	21	4	2	2	Wyoming
Boubacar Coulibaly	6	0	4	2	2	0	Pepperdine

I kept wondering why Enfield played Agbonkopolo, but the light finally started to come on for him. So, naturally, he is leaving. He and Anderson, took turns starting, so between them, one of SC's starters is leaving for Wyoming.

Boubacar Coulibaly is not the same player as Jefferson Koulibaly who is transferring out of Washington State. Neither played enough to confuse me, and they are both leaving the Pac-12. Hurray!!

RETURNING

Note about classes: With the extra year of eligibility, there is no clear way to label players. If a player is in his 4th season, but will have another year of eligibility after this year, I am calling him "Jr 4".

Player	Games	Starts	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	FG%	3Pt%	A/TO	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Boogie Ellis	33	33	30	13	3	2	42%	38%	1.4	Jr 4	4	38
Drew Peterson	34	34	33	12	6	3	47%	41%	1.4	Sr 5	3	331
Reese Dixon-Waters	33	0	14	5	2	1	44%	46%	0.9	So	4	52
Joshua Morgan	31	0	12	3	3	0	55%		0.8	Jr 4	3	174
Harrison Hornery	12	0	4	2	1	0	41%	39%	0.3	So	4	102
Kobe Johnson	27	0	7	1	1	1	33%	29%	1.6	So	3	247
Malik Thomas	9	0	2	0	0	0	17%		0.3	So	4	81

Enfield played a lot of guys last season, so he returns quite a bit of experience. They also return quite a bit of shooting, with 4 solid 3-point shooters.

With the return of Peterson and Ellis, the Trojans return 2 starters. They are almost certainly going to be their best players.

If you are like me, you are trying to forget Peterson going off for 27 against us in our loss at Galen. Fortunately, that was a career high for him. He isn't that good. However, he is a very good player, who does everything well. He is even one of their best ball-handlers. This is a guy who was recruited by the likes of Rice and Bowling Green out of HS, and found new life through the transfer portal.

Boogie Ellis came to SC from Memphis with the reputation as a selfish player. I don't think he lived up to that. However, he was pretty inconsistent last season. He could score 27 in one game and then score 3 points in the next. They will be expecting a lot from him this season. He might be the key to their season.

Dixon-Waters had a solid freshman season. If he can cut down his turnovers, he will probably move into the starting lineup.

Kobe Johnson looked like he had potential in limited minutes, but his shooting was pretty bad. He will need to shoot better to be a big factor.

Joshua Morgan was a competent backup center last season. He will probably back up freshman Iwuchukwu this season.

So far, Malik Thomas has not lived up to his Top 100 ranking.

This is a solid lineup, but with at least one big question: Who will play PG? They have some good guards, but most of them are more comfortable off the ball. Their best ball handler is Peterson, a 6-9 forward. Will he play point forward? Kobe Johnson could play the role, but can he shoot?

RECRUITS

(#9 class, #1 in Pac-12)

Player	Size	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Vince Iwuchukwu	7-0 220	C	5	23	UCLA, Baylor, Arkansas, Kansas
Kijani Wright	6-9 235	PF	4	44	Arkansas, Texas, Florida St, Kansas
Tre White	6-6 190	SF	4	47	LSU, Kansas, Illinois, Texas Tech
Oziyah Sellers	6-5 160	SG	3	138	Arizona St, Miss St, Creighton, New Mexico

Kansas seems to offer just about every 4-star and 5-star recruit.

I think Iwuchukwu and White are going to be very good college players. I have my doubts about Kijani Wright.

Iwuchukwu is likely to be the starting center. I don't know how ready he is to play a big role.

TRANSFERRING IN

Player

Size

Games

Starts

Minutes

Points

Rebounds

Assists

FG %

3-Pt %

From

Class

Recruiting

Stars

Recruiting

Rank

- None -

For a change, SC isn't bringing in any transfers.

CONCLUSION

It seems pretty likely that four of SC starters will be Boogie Ellis, Drew Peterson, Reese Dixon-Waters, and Vince Iwuchukwu. However, who will be the fifth starter? If they had a true PG, I would expect him to start. However, I don't see who that is.

This is a talented, experienced team, who returns a lot of guys and brings in a big recruiting class. However, I am not quite as impressed with SC as I was last season. I think they will be one of the top 4 teams in the league, but I don't see them winning the Pac-12. A 3rd or 4th place finish and a #10 or #11 seed in the NCAA tournament seems about right.

Last Edit: Jun 4, 2022 13:13:11 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:25:52 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:25:52 GMT -8

First, my sincere apology. Yesterday I somehow wrote three seeds for each line when I meant four.

I have chosen the teams I see UCLA competing with for seeding. One of the bracketologists seeds these 12 teams as #3, #4, and #5's.

If you want to play, pick four #3 seeds, four #4 seeds, and four #5 seeds.

	Team	NET	KenPom	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4	SOS	Road Record	Positives	Negatives
A	Villanova	7	12	7-6	6-1	5-0	4-0	13	8-5	13 Quad 1&2 Wins Best Net Ranking
B	Tennessee	9	11	7-7	4-0	6-0	5-0	10	6-5
C	Texas Tech	10	10	6-7	7-0	1-0	9-0	22	3-6	13 Quad 1&2 Wins	Losing Quad 1 record
D	UCLA	12	8	4-4	7-2	6-0	5-0	46	8-4	Best KenPom
E	Purdue	13	13	7-5	4-1	7-0	6-0	32	5-5
F	Illinois	14	13	5-5	6-3	5-0	4-0	14	7-4		Most Quad 2 losses
G	Texas	15	15	5-8	5-1	2-0	9-0	29	4-6		Losing Quad 1 Record
H	UConn	17	20	5-5	7-2	2-0	7-0	53	5-4
I	St. Mary's	19	17	5-6	4-0	5-0	9-0	68	6-4		Losing Quad 1 Record, Weakest scheduel
J	Alabama	21	21	7-7	6-1	5-2	1-0	1	3-6	Toughest Schedule 13 Top 2 Wins	2 Quad 3 losses, bad road record, Bad computer numbers
K	Arkansas	23	19	5-4	5-0	6-2	7-0	57	5-3		Weak schedule, Bad Comp #s. 2 Quad 3 losses.
L	Providence	25	34	5-3	9-1	5-0	5-0	50	7-2	14 Quad 1&2 Wins Great road record

I created an adjusted Top 2 Quad Win Precentage as a metric to evaluate the teams. Here's how I used the factors:

Quad 1 and Quad 2 Wins indicate whether you can compete with tournament teams. However, the number of wins is influenced by how many Quad 1 or Quad 2 games you played, so I preferred your win percentage in those games.

Quad 1 and Quad 2 Win Percentage is my main metric.

A Quad 3 Loss should count more, so I count is as 1.5 losses.

A losing Quad 1 record or a negative road record each count as an additional loss.

I thought all the teams played a decent strength of schedule.

Based on that metric, here are the #3 seeds are Providence (L), Villanova (A), UCLA (D), and Purdue (E).

#4's are Tennessee (B), St Mary's (I), Texas Tech (C), and Arkansas (K).

#5 seeds are Illinois (F), UConn, (H), Alabama (J), and Texas (G).

If I punished teams a bit for a weaker strength of schedule, I would drop Arkansas from the 4 line to the 5 line, and move Illinois up to #4.

BTW, Alabama and UConn lost last night.

	Team	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4	SOS	Road Record	My Metric	My Seed	Palm	Lunardi	EBuzzMiller
A	Villanova	7-6	6-1	5-0	4-0	13	8-5	65%	3	3	3	3
B	Tennessee	7-7	4-0	6-0	5-0	10	6-5	61%	4	4	3	3
C	Texas Tech	6-7	7-0	1-0	9-0	22	3-6	59%	4	3	3	3
D	UCLA	4-4	7-2	6-0	5-0	46	8-4	65%+	3	4	4	4
E	Purdue	7-5	4-1	7-0	6-0	32	5-5	65%	3	3	2	4
F	Illinois	5-5	6-3	5-0	4-0	14	7-4	58%	5	4	4	3
G	Texas	5-8	5-1	2-0	9-0	29	4-6	50%	5	5	5	4
H	UConn	5-5	7-2	2-0	7-0	53	5-4	57%	5	5	4	5
I	St. Mary's	5-6	4-0	5-0	9-0	68	6-4	60%	4	5	6	5
J	Alabama	7-7	6-1	5-2	1-0	1	3-6	52%	5	5	5	4
K	Arkansas	5-4	5-0	6-2	7-0	57	5-3	59%	4	4	5	5
L	Providence	5-3	9-1	5-0	5-0	50	7-2	78%	3	3	4	5

If there's a lesson here, it's that it is a very subjective process. Illinois was everywhere from a #3 to a #5. Purdue was a #2 to a #4. St. Marys was a #$ to a #6.

On Selection Sunday, the experts will both crow about what a great job the committee did and complain about some of the decisions. All the committee does is make decisions. Within a certain range, there are no right or wrong decisions. Only opinions.

Last Edit: Mar 3, 2022 8:32:07 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:26:23 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:26:23 GMT -8

I have chosen the teams I see UCLA competing with for seeding. One of the bracketologists seeds these 12 teams as #3, #4, and #5's.

If you want to play, pick four #3 seeds, four #4 seeds, and four #5 seeds.

	Team	Quad 1	Quad 2	Quad 3	Quad 4	SOS	Road Record	My Metric	My Seed	Palm	Lunardi
A	Villanova	7-6	6-1	5-0	4-0	13	8-5	65%	3	13 Quad 1&2 Wins Best Net Ranking
B	Tennessee	7-7	4-0	6-0	5-0	10	6-5	61%	4
C	Texas Tech	6-7	7-0	1-0	9-0	22	3-6	59%	4	13 Quad 1&2 Wins	Losing Quad 1 record
D	UCLA	4-4	7-2	6-0	5-0	46	8-4	65%+	3	Best KenPom Best road record
E	Purdue	7-5	4-1	7-0	6-0	32	5-5	65%	3
F	Illinois	5-5	6-3	5-0	4-0	14	7-4	58%	4		Most Quad 2 losses
G	Texas	5-8	5-1	2-0	9-0	29	4-6	50%	5		Losing Quad 1 Record
H	UConn	5-5	7-2	2-0	7-0	53	5-4	57%	5
I	St. Mary's	5-6	4-0	5-0	9-0	68	6-4	60%	4		Losing Quad 1 Record, Weakest scheduel
J	Alabama	7-7	6-1	5-2	1-0	1	3-6	52%	5	Toughest Schedule 13 Top 2 Wins	2 Quad 3 losses, bad road record, Bad computer numbers
K	Arkansas	5-4	5-0	6-2	7-0	57	5-3	59%	5		Weak schedule, Bad Comp #s. 2 Quad 3 losses.
L	Providence	5-3	9-1	5-0	5-0	50	7-2	78%	3	14 Quad 1&2 Wins Great road record

Here are a few observations:

Team L has 14 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. A, C, and J have 13. I and K have only 9.

J and K are the only teams with Quad 3 losses.

C, G, and J have losing road records.

Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins indicate whether you can compete with tournament teams.

Just counting Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins is deceptive, because the more of those games you play, the more chances you have to win.

A Quad 3 loss should count more, so I count is as 1.5 losses.

A losing Quad 1 record or a negative road record each count as an additional loss.

Last Edit: Mar 3, 2022 6:54:15 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:27:03 GMT -8

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Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:27:03 GMT -8

Rothstein

18. Oregon

G Will Richardson
G Jermaine Couisnard
G Keeshawn Barthelemy
F Quincy Guerrier
C N’Faly Dante
Projected Bench: Dior Johnson, Nate Bittle, Kel’el Ware, Rivaldo Soares, Lok Wur, Tyrone Williams
Key Losses: Will Richardson, Eric Williams, Jacob Young, Franck Kepnang, Isaac Johnson, De’Vion Harmon
Key Newcomers: Tyrone Williams (JUCO), Kel’el Ware, Dior Johnson, Keeshawn Barthelemy (Colorado), Jermaine Couisnard (South Carolina)

Last Edit: Jun 2, 2022 9:57:40 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:27:38 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:27:38 GMT -8

Senate Races As of September 29th

The big news in the past two weeks:

Overall, the number have changed slightly in favor of the Republicans. This basically puts things back where they were a month ago. These small movements are mostly noise and not significant. EXCEPT, ...
Wisconsin has moved significantly in favor of Ron Johnson.
Cook moves Arizona from "Tossup" to "Leans Dem"

NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.

Lite: Polls only
Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.

Lite is most favorable to the Democrats

Numbers ~~crossed out~~ are from September 14th.

The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,

Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70% ~~80% / 76% / 65%~~ (538)

The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.

52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.

Democratic Seats	Lite	Classic	Deluxe
50 or More	79% ~~82%~~	77% ~~79%~~	69% ~~70%~~
51 or more	69% ~~74%~~	64% ~~68%~~	54% ~~56%~~
52 or more	58% ~~64%~~	50% ~~54%~~	39% 40%
53 or more	46% ~~51%~~	35% ~~39%~~	24% ~~25%~~
54 or more	34% ~~38%~~	22% ~~23%~~	13% ~~13%~~

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Vote Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato*	Cook+
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	0.7% / 1.3% / 0.7% ~~2.6% / 3.0% / 1.8%~~	55% / 58% / 54% ~~65% / 66% / 60%~~	-1.7% ~~-1.0%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	6,2% / 5.2% / 4.8% ~~8.9% / 7.5% / 6.3%~~	87% / 78% / 77% ~~92% / 85% / 82%~~	4.4% ~~6.2%~~	Tossup -> Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	2.7% / 2.1% / 1.2% ~~2.7% / 1.9% / 1.1%~~	66% / 60% / 54% ~~64% / 58% / 53%~~	0.7% ~~-0.5%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters	7.3% / 6.7% / 6.1% ~~7.8% / 6.8% / 5.1%~~	90% / 84% / 83% ~~90% / 84% / 77%~~	5.4% ~~4.0~~%	Tossup -> Leans Dem	Tossup -> Leans Dem
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc	9.2% / 8.8% / 7,6% ~~5.9% / 7.5% / 6.7%~~	90% / 89% / 86% ~~77% / 83% / 81%~~	9.3% ~~4.0%~~	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson	-0.4% / -1.0% / -2.0% ~~4.4% / 2.2% / tied~~	48% / 44% / 37% ~~73% / 62% / 50%~~	-1.8% ~~4.3%~~	Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	0.4% / -0.5% / -2.8% ~~0.7% / 0.3% / -2.2%~~	53% / 47% / 33% ~~54% / 51% /~~ ~~36%~~	-2.0% ~~-1.3%~~	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	0.4% / -0.8% / -3.6% 1.6% / -0.8% / -3.6%	53% / 45% / 30% ~~59% / 46% / 31%~~	-1.2% ~~-2.3%~~	Likely Rep-> Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Florida	Incumbent Rep	Demings	Rubio	-3.9% / -4.3% / -6.5% ~~-4.5% / -6.3% / -7.9%~~	26% / 25% / 16% ~~23% / 18% / 13%~~	-2.8% ~~-2.3%~~	Likely Rep	Leans Rep

State	Comments	Democrat	Republican
Nevada	Moving slightly toward the Republican.	Cortez Masto	Laxalt
Pennsylvania	Small gains for Oz. Fetterman still has a solid lead.	Fetterman	Oz
Georgia	Slight improvement for Warnock. Still a tossup.	Warnock	Walker
Arizona	Kelly is a solid favorite. Cooks moves to "Leans Dem".	Kelly	Masters
New Hampshire	Hassan has moved further ahead and seems very likely to win.	Hassan	Bolduc
Wisconsin	Ron Johnson has moved ahead in this race.	Barnes	Johnson
North Carolina	A tight race with a slight edge for Budd.	Beasley	Budd
Ohio	Another tight race with the edge for the Republican	Ryan	Vance
Florida	Demings is closing, but this still looks like a win for Rubio.	Demings	Rubio

* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated September 22nd.

==================================================================
Senate Races As of September 14th

The big news in the past two weeks:

Bolduc wins the Repub nomination in New Hampshire. He is a weak candidate and helps Hassan a lot.
Sabato moves Arizona from "tossup" to "leans Democratic".
Pennsylvania is looking solid for Fetterman

NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.

Lite: Polls only
Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.

Lite is most favorable to the Democrats

Numbers ~~crossed out~~ are from August 27th.

The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 6% in the last month,

Democrats win Senate: 82% / 79% / 70% ~~80% / 76% / 65%~~ (538)

The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.

52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.

Democratic Seats	Lite	Classic	Deluxe
50 or More	82% ~~80%~~	79% ~~76%~~	70% ~~65%~~
51 or more	74% ~~71%~~	68% ~~64%~~	56% 51%
52 or more	64% ~~61%~~	54% ~~50%~~	40% 36%
53 or more	51% ~~48%~~	39% ~~35%~~	25% ~~22%~~
54 or more	38% ~~35%~~	23% ~~21%~~	13% ~~12%~~

Don't freak out over the RCP changes. Trafalgar Group, which is an R-leaning organization, has dropped a bunch of polls in the last two weeks. No one else has released much.

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Vote Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato*	Cook+
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	2.6% / 3.0% / 1.8% ~~3.5% / 3.6% / 2.0%~~	65% / 66% / 60% ~~68% / 69% / 60%~~	-1.0% 2.3%	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	8.9% / 7.5% / 6.3% ~~8.6% / 6.8% / 4.9%~~	92% / 85% / 82% ~~90% / 82% / 75%~~	6.2% ~~7.8%~~	Tossup -> Leans Dem	Tossup -> Leans Dem
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	2.7% / 1.9% / 1.1% ~~2.8% / 1.8% / 0.8%~~	64% / 58% / 53% ~~64% / 57% / 51%~~	-0.5% ~~4.4%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters	7.8% / 6.8% / 5.1% ~~9.0% / 6.8% / 4.2%~~%	90% / 84% / 77% ~~88% / 82% / 71%~~	4.0% 8~~.5%~~	Tossup -> Leans Dem	Tossup
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc	5.9% / 7.5% / 6.7% ~~5.2% / 6.5% / 5.9%~~	77% / 83% / 81% ~~73% / 79% / 77%~~	4.0% ~~4.0%~~	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson	4.4% / 2.2% / tied ~~2.2% / tied /~~ ~~-1.8%~~	73% / 62% / 50% ~~61% /~~ ~~49% /40%~~	4.3% ~~4.3%~~	Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	0.7% / 0.3% / -2.2% ~~1.6% / 0.6% / -2.2%~~	54% / 51% / 36% ~~58% / 53% /~~ ~~37%~~	-1.3% ~~-2.8%~~	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	1.6% / -0.8% / -3.6% ~~0.2% / -2.2% / -4.8%~~	59% / 46% / 31% ~~50% / 38% / 26%~~	-2.3% ~~-3.7%~~	Likely Rep-> Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Florida	Incumbent Rep	Demings	Rubio	-4.5% / -6.3% / -7.9% ~~-2.8% / -5,8% / -7.6%~~	23% / 18% / 13% ~~34% / 22% / 15%~~	-2.3% 4.0%	Likely Rep	Leans Rep

State	Comments	Democrat	Republican
Nevada	Moving slightly toward the Republican.	Cortez Masto	Laxalt
Pennsylvania	Fetterman pulling away. Looks like clear Democrat pickup.	Fetterman	Oz
Georgia	Moving slightly toward the Republican.	Warnock	Walker
Arizona	Kelly is pulling away. Looking safe. Sabato has changed the status in the last two weeks to "Leans Dem".	Kelly	Masters
New Hampshire	Bolduc wins the Republican nomination, which helps Hassan a lot.	Hassan	Bolduc
Wisconsin	Barnes chances to unseat Ron Johnson seem to be improving.	Barnes	Johnson
North Carolina	An uphill climb, but within reach	Beasley	Budd
Ohio	Another uphill climb. This looks tougher than North Carolina.	Ryan	Vance
Florida	A long shot, but it might be a bit early to write this one off.	Demings	Rubio

* Sabato was last updated August 31st.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.

==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 27th

NOTE: 538 has three prediction models.

Lite: Polls only
Classic: Polls, fundraising, past voting patterns, etc.
Deluxe: Classic + experts' rating. Nate Silver thinks this is the best predictor.

Lite is most favorable to the Democrats

Numbers ~~crossed out~~ are from August 13th.

The probability of the Democrats holding on to the Senate has increased by around 4% in the last 15 days,

Democrats win Senate: 80% / 76% / 65% ~~78% / 74% / 61%~~ (538)

The most likely outcome is that the Democrats get 51 seats. That mean Manchin and Sinema have to work together to block things.

52 seats would move Manchin and Sinema out of power. At this point 52 seats seems possible.

Democratic Seats	Lite	Classic	Deluxe
50 or More	80% ~~79%~~	76% ~~73%~~	65% ~~61%~~
51 or more	71% ~~69%~~	64% ~~61%~~	51% ~~46%~~
52 or more	61% ~~57%~~	50% ~~46%~~	36% 32%
53 or more	48% ~~44%~~	35% ~~31%~~	22% ~~19%~~
54 or more	35% ~~30%~~	21% ~~18%~~	12% 9%

While the races seem to mostly be moving toward the Democrats, Georgia seems pretty stable. Georgia seems like the most critical race.

At this point the Democrats look like they will pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. Cook has moved it from "Tossup" to "Leans Democratic".

If Warnock wins Georgia, the Democrats look very solid for 51 with a chance at more. Without Georgia, the Democrats have a hard road to get past 50.

Another race to watch is Wisconsin. QANON Ron is still considered the favorite, but Barnes' chances have improved a lot in the last couple of weeks.

The Democrats have a shot at picking up a seat in North Carolina.

Ohio and Florida are long shots. The Democrats have gained in both states in the past two weeks, but they are still fighting uphill battles.

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Vote Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato*	Cook+
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	3.5% / 3.6% / 2.0% ~~2.6% / 3.0% / 1.4%~~	68% / 69% / 60% ~~63% / 65% / 57%~~	2.3% ~~3.0%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	8.6% / 6.8% / 4.9% ~~9.3% / 6.5% / 3.3%~~	90% / 82% / 75% ~~90% / 81% / 67%~~	7.8% ~~8.7%~~	Tossup	Tossup -> Leans Dem
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	2.8% / 1.8% / 0.8% ~~2.8% / 1.8% / 0.6%~~	64% / 57% / 51% ~~65% / 57% / 51%~~	4.4% ~~4.8%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters	9.0% / 6.8% / 4.2% ~~10.5% / 7.5% / 4.5%~~	88% / 82% / 71% ~~91% / 83% / 71%~~	8.5% ~~9.0%~~	Tossup	Tossup
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc	5.2% / 6.5% / 5.9% ~~4.9% / 6.1% / 5.5%~~	73% / 79% / 77% ~~72% / 77% / 75%~~	4.0%	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson	2.2% / tied / -1.8% ~~-3.6% / -2.4% / -3.4%~~	61% / 49% /40% ~~34% / 38% / 33%~~	4.3% ~~2.0%~~	Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	1.6% / 0.6% / -2.2% ~~1.0% / 0.1% / -2.7%~~	58% / 53% / 37% ~~56% / 51% / 34%~~	-2.8% ~~-3.8%~~	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	0.2% / -2.2% / -4.8% ~~4.8% / -1.0% / -5.6%~~	50% / 38% / 26% ~~79% / 45% / 25%~~	-3.7%	Likely Rep	Leans Rep
Florida	Incumbent Rep	Demings	Rubio	-2.8% / -5,8% / -7.6% ~~-6.3% / -9.0% /-10.0%~~	34% / 22% / 15% ~~20% / 12% / 9%~~	4.0%	Likely Rep	Leans Rep

Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.

* Sabato was last updated August 24th.
+ Cook was last updated August 18th.

New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13

==================================================================
Senate Races As of August 13th

Democratic Seats	Lite	Classic	Deluxe
50 or More	79%	73%	61%
51 or more	69%	61%	46%
52 or more	57% ~~51%~~	46% 42%	32% ~~28%~~
53 or more	44%	31%	19%
54 or more	30%	18%	9%

Since July 29thm most Democrats have had small gains, but it is not clear if the Georgia race has moved at all.

Pennsylvania and Arizona are looking pretty solid for the Democrats, which would result in picking up a seat.

Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin all seem to be close. The Democrats are playing defense in GA and NV and offense for the NC and WI.

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Vote Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato*	Cook+
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	2.6% / 3.0% / 1.4% ~~2.3% / 2.5% / 0.9%~~	63% / 65% / 57% ~~62% / 63% / 55%~~	3.0% ~~3.0%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	9.3% / 6.5% / 3.3% ~~8.3% / 5.7% / 2.5%~~	90% / 81% / 67% ~~87% / 77% / 63%~~	8.7% ~~7.5%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	2.8% / 1.8% / 0.6% ~~3.0% / 1.8% / 0.4%~~	65% / 57% / 51% ~~66% / 56% /~~ ~~49%~~	4.4% ~~4.8%~~	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters	10.5% / 7.5% / 4.5% ~~7.5% / 5.7% / 3.1%~~	91% / 83% / 71% 80% / 76% / 65%	9.0%	Tossup	Tossup
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc	4.9% / 6.1% / 5.5% ~~4.5% / 5.8% / 5.1%~~	72% / 77% / 75% 71% / 76% / 74%	4.0%	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson	-3.6% / -2.4% / -3.4% ~~-3.6% / -2.6% / -3.6%~~	34% / 38% / 33% 35% / 37% / 32%	2.0%	Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	1.0% / 0.1% / -2.7% ~~0.1% / -0.7% / -3.4%~~	56% / 51% / 34% ~~50% / 46% / 31%~~	-3.8%	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	4.8% / -1.0% / -5.6% ~~2.8% / -2.0% / -6.5%~~	79% / 45% / 25% ~~64% / 40% / 22%~~		Likely Rep	Leans Rep
Florida	Incumbent Rep	Demings	Rubio	-6.3% / -9.0% / -10%	20% / 12% / 9%	-9.0%	Likely Rep	Leans Rep

Florida may seem out of reach, but some partisan polls suggest that it might be closer than it looks.

* Sabato was last updated August 2nd.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.

New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13
Florida Primary: Aug 23

==================================================================
Senate Races As of July 29th

Democrats win Senate: 72% / 68% / 56% (538)

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Projection Vote Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato*	Cook+
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	2.3% / 2.5% / 0.9%	62% / 63% / 55%	3.0%	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	8.3% / 5.7% / 2.5%	87% / 77% / 63%	7.5%	Tossup	Tossup
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	3.0% / 1.8% / 0.4%	66% / 56% / 49%	4.8%	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters	7.5% / 5.7% / 3.1%	80% / 76% / 65%		Tossup	Tossup
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc	4.5% / 5.8% / 5.1%	71% / 76% / 74%	4.0%	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson	-3.6% / -2.6% / -3.6%	35% / 37% / 32%	2.0%	Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	0.1% / -0.7% / -3.4%	50% / 46% / 31%	-3.8%	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	2.8% / -2.0% / -6.5%	64% / 40% / 22%		Likely Rep	Leans Rep

The most likely scenario is the Dems pick up Pennsylvania and keep their other seats. That would give them 51 Senate seats.

51 Senate seats is not enough to take power away from Manchin and Sinema.

The other Republican seats are seen as pretty safe, but none of the polling data should have them resting easy.

The biggest danger for the Democrats is losing Georgia. Nevada is mildly at risk.

* Sabato was last updated June 15th.
+ Cook was last updated March 4th.

Arizona Primary: Aug 2
Wisconsin Primary: Aug 9
New Hampshire Primary: Sep 13

Senate Races As of July 8th

Democrats win Senate: 47% (538)

State	Held By	Democrat	Republican	538 Dem Lead	538 Dem Win %	RCP Dem Lead	Sabato	Cook
Nevada	Incumbent Dem	Cortez Masto	Laxalt	0.9%	51%	-	Tossup	Tossup
Pennsylvania	Rep - Open	Fetterman	Oz	0.4%	52%		Tossup	Tossup
Georgia	Incumbent Dem	Warnock	Walker	1.0%	44%	1.6%	Tossup	Tossup
Arizona	Incumbent Dem	Kelly	Masters		58%		Tossup	Tossup
New Hampshire	Incumbent Dem	Hassan	Bolduc		70%	4.0%	Leans Dem	Leans Dem
Wisconsin	Incumbent Rep	Barnes	Johnson		28%		Leans Rep	Tossup
North Carolina	Rep - Open	Beasley	Budd	-1.7%	25%	-3.8%	Leans Rep	Leans Rep
Ohio	Rep - Open	Ryan	Vance	1.8%	16%		Likely Rep	Leans Rep

The 538 and Real Clear Politics "Lead" columns are based on polling data. The other columns are based on polls, incumbency, national trends, and historical trends in the states.

Last Edit: Sept 29, 2022 10:11:57 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:28:09 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:28:09 GMT -8

CHANGES

April 29 - 4-star recruit Shane Dezonie decommits.

May 3 - Jordan Brown enters the transfer portal

May 9 - Pick up transfer Pelle Larsson from Utah

May 11 - Adama Bal from France commits to Arizona

May 27 - Pick up Georgia transfer Justin Kier

Coach Tommy Lloyd has done a good job of filling some roster holes through the transfer portal.
------------------
Next are the 5th place Arizona Wildcats. Stop me if you've heard this one before. There is a legendary head coach with a long-time assistant who is head coach in waiting. The assistant gets tired of waiting to be a head coach. He leaves to become the head coach of a Pac-12 team that just fired their head coach.

Is it Mike Hopkins of Washington or new Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd? It's both!

Coach Lloyd takes over a program under the shadow of an NCAA investigation. Will that buy him some patience with Wildcat fans? I would not count on it.

GRADUATING

- None -

IN THE DRAFT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
James Akinjo	35	16	2	5

Akinjo has put his name in the draft, but has not signed with an agent. He's also in the transfer portal. He led the team in scoring, assists, and steals. He had an excellent 2.4 to 1 A/TO ratio.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
James Akinjo	35	16	2	5	Baylor
Jordan Brown	20	9	5	1	Louisiana
Jemarl Baker	7	2	1	1	Fresno State
Terrell Brown Jr.	6	1	1	1	Washington
Ira Lee	10	4	2	1	George Washington
Daniel Batcho					Texas Tech
Tibet Görener	4	1	1	0	San Jose State

James Akinjo is a HUGE loss.

Jordan Brown was the Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 9.4 points and 5.2 rebounds per game off the bench for the Wildcats last season. Brown originally transferred to Arizona from Nevada after being a McDonald’s All American.

Arizona’s depth chart will see starting bigs Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis back, as Koloko overtook Brown for a starting spot halfway through the season. Like Brown, both of those players have at least two years of eligibility left.

Daniel Batcho was the only member of the Wildcats’ international-heavy recruiting class who didn’t play this season. He underwent knee surgery in the preseason and, even though he had finished rehabilitation before the season ended, he still sat on the bench, with Miller saying he didn’t know the plays. Last February, Batcho averaged 14.8 points and 11.3 rebounds per game in the Adidas Next Generation Tournament in Belgrade, Serbia, and received MVP honors.

According to Bill Walton, Ira Lee was a great player. No one agreed, except the coaches at George Washington.

Görener appeared in eight games for a total of 30 minutes.

RETURNING

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Azuolas Tubelis	26	27	12	7	1	So	4	57
Benedict Mathurin	26	25	11	5	1	So	4	129
~~Jordan Brown~~	26	20	9	5	1	Jr	5	19
Kerr Kriisa	8	23	5	1	2	So	4	85
Christian Koloko	26	17	5	5	0	Jr	3	178
Dalen Terry	26	21	5	3	2	So	4	52
Tautvilas Tubelis	5	2	0	0	0	So		Unranked

These is a good core of players for next season.

Kerr Kriisa joined the team late in the season. After the season, he put his name in the transfer portal, but then he withdrew it. He will stay at Arizona for another season. At this point he should know who Steve Kerr is.

Koloko wasn't a big scorer, but he has potential to be a very good big man. He led the team in blocks.

Dalen Terry was a starter early in the season in part because he could handle being a secondary ballhandler. However, Terry never lived up to his lofty recruiting ranking, and he was bumped out of the lineup by Mathurin’s emergence. Terry played some power forward in smaller sets, and the position could be an option for next season if Arizona opts to go small.

RECRUITS

(#81 class, #11 in Pac-12)

Name	Size	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Shane Nowell	6-5 190	SG	4	80	Oklahoma, Washington, Washington State
Adama Bal	6-6 180	CG		Unranked	Cincinnati, Georgia, Colorado, Marquette

Lloyd recruited Bal when he was coaching at Gonzaga.

Two out of three members of Sean Miller's recruiting class decommitted after his firing. That included K J Simpson. In spite of a lot of noise on a pay service, Simpson was never going to get an offer from UCLA. He's on his way to Colorado.

TRANSFERRING IN

Lloyd did a good job filling his roster with transfers. All three of these guys seem like Pac-12 level players.

Player	Size	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	From	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
~~Kim Aiken, Jr.~~	~~6-7 215~~	31	11	8	2	~~Eastern Washington~~	Sr		~~Unranked~~
Pelle Larsson	6-5 208	27	8	3	2	Utah	So	3	183
Oumar Ballo	6-10 245	6	3	2	0	Gonzaga	So	4	78
Justin Kier	6-4 190	31	10	4	2	Georgia	Sr 5		Unranked

Are we really going to have guy name Bal and a guy name Ballo on the same team? AND a guy name Kerr Krissa along with a guy named Justin Kier? ARGH!

Aiken committed around 2 hours before Sean Miller was fired. Then on April 21, he changed his mind and committed to Washington State instead.

Maybe someone told him this:

>>Russell lives in Tucson, the third-fastest-warming city in the U.S. Last year, she said, “We had one hundred and eight days above a hundred degrees—you can’t quite get your head around just how long that is.” (The average number of hundred-degree days that Tucson typically experiences is sixty-two.) As the temperature climbed, cabin fever set in. They couldn’t visit their friends, and it was too hot to go to the playground—or even to play in the back yard. Russell started waking them up at 5 a.m. to walk the dog.

Pelle Larsson looked very good as a freshman at Utah, starting 18 games. I thought he would be a star at Utah, and he could be one at Arizona. He shot 47% from the field and 46% from the arc last season, and shot 88% from the FT line. I HATE the fact that he is at Arizona.

It's not a shock that a kid like Ballo is transferring out of Gonzaga and following Lloyd to Arizona. Ballo is from Africa and Lloyd was know for handling the recruiting for overseas players. And Lloyd is know for developing big guys. It seems like a good fit. His arrival may have played a role in Jordan Brown' decision to take to the road again. Or Jordan Brown's decision convinced Ballo he would get PT at Arizona.

Ballo was highly-rated out of HS, but he didn't see much playing time behind Timme. And with Chet Holmgren on his way to Spokane, he wasn't likely to see a lot next season, either. With Jordan Brown transferring out, he will be the only substitute big for the Wildcats.

Kier played 3 years at George Mason before transferring to Georgia where he was a full-time starter. He only shot 39% from the field, but a decent 37% from the arc. He got decent stats otherwise for the Bulldogs and the were accumulated playing in the SEC. He led them in steals. This is a good pickup for Lloyd.

CONCLUSION

The Wildcats now have five walk-ons and 11 scholarship players on their 2021-22 roster.

This is a pretty talented roster with six 4-star players. They have to integrate some new players and learn a new system, so there could be growing pains. Although I suspect Lloyd will be a good coach, he has yet to prove that. Many assistants don't replicate the success of their head coach.

However, I suspect that Arizona will be in the top half of the league and maybe even competing for the conference title. This could be a good season for You-Of-AY, at least until the NCAA comes calling.

Last Edit: Jun 25, 2021 8:20:58 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:28:25 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:28:25 GMT -8

CHANGES

May 28 - Cody Riley declares

May 28 - Chris Smith declares

------------------
Next are the 4th place UCLA Bruins, who may be the hardest team in the league to figure out, with four key players said to be undecided about their future. What will Chris Smith, Johnny Juzang, Cody Riley, and Jaimie Jaquez decide? I doubt that any of them know the answer today.

Those four undecided players combined for 118 minutes, 51 points, and 21 rebounds per game. That's 59% of the minutes, 70% of the points, and 60% of the rebounds.

I know those figures are skewed, because Smith only played in 8 games, but still, that's a lot of production we could lose.

For the time being, all we can do is wait. Once again, here are the key dates.

May 30	Early entry application deadline (10:59 p.m. CT)
June 21 - June 27	NBA Draft Combine
June 22	NBA Draft Lottery (7:30 p.m. CT)
July 19	Withdrawal deadline (4 p.m. CT)
July 29	NBA Draft (7 p.m. CT)

However, there is one thing that isn't uncertain. This is a team on the verge of returning to elite status. There's plenty of talent return and coming in.

GRADUATING

- None -

IN THE DRAFT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Can Return
J~~ohnny Juzang~~	32	16	4	2	~~Yes~~
Chris Smith	28	13	6	2	Yes
~~Cody Riley~~	23	10	5	1	~~Yes~~

At this point the only player who has formally declared is Juzang, and he hasn't ruled out returning.

I think that the others like Jaquez should put their names in. There is no downside to getting feedback. No downside for them, at least. We will all fret for the next 4 months.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
- None -

UCLA is the only team in the Pac-12 with no player in the transfer portal. We are one of only 3 major conference teams with no outgoing transfers.

RETURNING

Until they announce otherwise, I will keep Smith, Jaquez, and Riley in the "Returning" category.

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Johnny Juzang	27	32	16	4	2	Jr	4	33
~~Chris Smith~~	8	28	13	6	2	~~Sr 5~~	3	~~141~~
Jaimie Jaquez	32	35	12	6	2	Jr	4	82
Tyger Campbell	32	35	10	2	5	Jr	4	87
Jules Bernard	32	30	10	5	2	Sr	4	41
Cody Riley	31	23	10	5	1	Sr	4	44
David Singleton	32	17	5	2	1	Sr	4	80
Jake Kyman	31	11	3	1	1	Jr	3	170
Mac Etienne	13	11	3	3	0	So	4	49
Jaylen Clark	31	9	3	2	0	So	4	108
Kenneth Nwuba	18	6	0	1	0	Jr	3	241

Even if none of the "big three" return, this is still a damned good core of players. That's four Top 100 players and Jaylen Clark is almost a fifth.

Juzang, Jaquez, and Riley didn't carry us to the Final Four alone. The rest of the roster contributed.

RECRUITS(#33 class, #5 in Pac-12)

Then add in a great recruiting class. This may not have a top national ranking, but class rankings give a lot of weight to how many players are in the class. A two-player class isn't going to rank that high.

Player	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Peyton Watson	SF	5	10	Michigan, Oregon, USC, Arkansas
Will McClendon	SG	4	45	Illinois, Mississippi, Texas A&M, USC

We are adding a McDonald's All-American and another Top 50 player.

247 may list Watson as a SF, but he may be able to play any position, including PG. He has a 7-3 wingspan, and is still growing into his body. Because of his height, length, slender body (but much stronger than he looks) and skills, he'll get compared to Tayshaun Prince, but he elevates higher and faster than Prince. He is an instant impact player.

You can see highlights of Peyton and younger brother Christian here

McClendon is an excellent prospect in his own right. Cronin will have the good kind of problem: finding PT for all these guys who are ready to contribute.

TRANSFERRING IN

To add to the embarrassment of riches:

Player	Size	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Blocks	From	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Myles Johnson	6-10 255	24	8	9	1	2.4	Rutgers	Sr	3	371

He's not a 4-star, but he is a proven player in a major conference. He had as many blocked shots per game as our top three shot blockers combined.

CONCLUSION

The big question hanging over this roster is the status of Juzang, Jaquez, Smith, and Riley. I doubt we will know much about any of them for quite a while.

Keep in mind that this is a VERY deep draft and next year's draft is expected to be a lot weaker. A young man like Juzang is likely to be told that he will be a second-round pick this year, but a first-round pick next year. How will that affect his decision? You'd have to ask him.

Perhaps the best news so far is that Savino was not offered the Cincinnati job. Out outstanding coaching staff remains intact.

It's way too early to make predictions, but it's hard to see a scenario where we are not the favorite to win the Pac-12 and to get a high tournament seed. Start planning your trip to San Diego for the first two rounds.

Last Edit: Jul 7, 2021 19:27:06 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:28:48 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:28:48 GMT -8

CHANGES

Jeriah Horne is headed to Tulsa, not Buffalo.

Maddox Daniels is ending his basketball career.
---------------------------
Next are the 3rd Place Colorado Buffalos. They are losing quite a bit, but they are returning a nice group of players as well, including a player who could have a breakout season.

GRADUATING

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Maddox Daniels	18	5	2	1

Maddox Daniels won't be using the extra year of eligibility the NCAA granted. He is going to be a life coach. Whatever that is.

IN THE DRAFT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
McKinley Wright	32	15	4	5

They lose their leader in points, assists, and steals. He holds a bunch of Colorado career records.

After watching him play at the Draft Combine, I think he will be a bigger loss than I originally anticipated. He may or may not be big enough to play in the NBA, but he just makes everyone around him better. He was a GREAT college player. Pretty damned good for a 3-star recruit.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
Jeriah Horne	25	11	6	1	Tulsa
D'Shawn Schwartz	28	9	4	1	George Mason
Dallas Walton	15	6	3	1	Wake Forest
Isaac Jessup	2	1	1	0	Colorado Mesa
Alexander Strating	2	0	1	0	Missouri S & T
Owen Koonce	1	0	1	0	Colorado Mesa

CU loses three of its top four scorers and five of its top seven. Departed seniors Wright, Horne, D’Shawn Schwartz, Dallas Walton and Maddox Daniels accounted for about 62 percent of the Buffs’ scoring production. Horne led the Buffs in rebounding and Wright ranked third, in addition to the latter’s almost irreplaceable role in running CU’s offense.

Jeriah Horne is transferring to Tulsa. Now we are unlikely to confuse him with D.J. Horne who will be playing for Arizona State.

~~Jeriah Horne will shuffle off to Buffalo. He leaves the Buffaloes for Buffalo.~~

D'Shawn is leaving for George Mason. May the Schwartz be with him.

Here's hoping that Dallas Walton can have a healthy season at Wake. The poor young man has been plagued by injuries.

RETURNING

Tad Boyle always plays a lot of guys, so even though he loses 4 important guys, he still returns quite a bit of experience

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Evan Battey	32	10	5	1	Sr	3	138
Jabari Walker	14	8	1	1	So	3	160
Eli Parquet	28	5	2	1	Sr	3	398
Keeshawn Barthelemy	12	4	1	1	So	3	170
Tristan da Silva	9	3	1	0	So		Unranked
Dominique Clifford	4	1	0	0	So	4	116

As a freshman Jabari Walker looked like a future star. He can jump out of the gym and he has skills. He shot 52% (!!!) from the 3-point arc and 53% from the field. He was also a fouling machine. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could be All-Pac-12.

Barthelemy has some flashes of looking like a quality PG, His 1.9 A/TO ratio is very good for a freshman. His 35% shooting wasn't.

The younger da Silva has some skills. He could be an excellent college player. 53% from the floor is nothing to sniff at.

Coach Boyle expects Clifford to have a bigger impact this season.

RECRUITS

(#11 class, #1 in Pac-12)

This is a very good class, but part of the reason it is ranked so high is because there are a lot of recruits in the class.

Player	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Lawson Lovering	C	4	58	Baylor, San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State
Quincy Allen	PF	4	79	Michigan, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
K J Simpson	CG	4	86	Arizona, Arizona State, California, Georgia Tech
Javon Ruffin	SG	3	193	California
Julian Hammond	CG	3	234	Northern Colorado, Wyoming

Lovering and Allen look like good players.

Simpson was committed to Arizona, but moved on after Sean Miller was fired. He's has a reputation as a gunner, but he had no talent around him on his HS team. His coach might have told him to shoot every chance he got.

Overall, this class brings in a lot of players and a significant talent upgrade for Colorado. Arizona State is the only other Pac-12 team bringing in 5 freshmen.

TRANSFERRING IN

Player	Size	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	From	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Mason Faulkner	6-1 190	34	17	6	5	Western Carolina	Sr 5		Unranked

Faulkner was the best player on Western Carolina, one of the two worst teams in the Southern Conference. Like McKinley Wright, he seems to be an excellent rebounder for a guard.

CONCLUSION

Tad Boyle loses quite a bit, but has a lot of experienced pieces to work with. I would expect another finish in the top half of the league.

I also expect him to continue to play a lot of players.

Boyle has been at Colorado for 11 years now. Last season's 3rd place finish in the Pac-12 was the best he's ever had. He's never advanced past the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. He has never really had consistent success in Boulder in spite of the huge home court advantage of 5,430 feet.

This may be the most talented team he has ever had. Can he put the pieces together? This seems like a put up or shut up year for Tad Boyle.

Last Edit: Jul 10, 2021 18:05:40 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
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Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:29:09 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:29:09 GMT -8

Next are the second Place USC Trojans. They lose quite a bit, but the cupboard isn't bare either. And there is new talent coming in.

GRADUATING

- None -

IN THE DRAFT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists
Evan Mobley	34	16	9	2
Tahj Eaddy	31	14	3	3
~~Isaiah Mobley~~	28	10	7	2

These is their 3 leading scorers, their 2 leading rebounders, their assist leader, and their two leading shot blockers.

Tahj Eaddy has come up in the world. A couple of years ago he was playing for Santa Clara. Now he is in the NBA draft.

Isaiah Mobley has declared, but he is not signing with an agent. If he leaves, they lose their best 3-point shooter.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
Noah Baumann	11	4	1	0	Georgia

Junior Talin Lewis is also transferring out. He was a jumper and hurdler on the USC track and field team. During the Fall, he was a member of the USC men's basketball team, but he tore his left ACL in the Fall and will sat out the 2021 season.

RETURNING

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Isaiah Mobley	32	28	10	7	2	Jr	5	20
Drew Peterson	33	28	10	5	3	Sr	3	331
Isaiah White	32	20	8	3	1	Sr 5		Unranked
Ethan Anderson	25	21	6	2	3	Jr	3	297
Chevez Goodwin	33	15	6	4	1	Sr 5		Unranked
Max Agbonkpolo	33	16	4	3	1	Jr	4	52
Boubacar Coulibaly	15	3	1	1	0	So	3	222
Reese Waters	10	4	1	1	0	So	4	52
Joshua Morgan	7	3	0	1	0	Jr	3	174

Enfield returns 5 rotation players and two starters. If Mobley the Elder returns, make that 6 players and 3. Either way he returns some good players.

Peterson, White, Anderson, and Goodwin all played well last season.

Ethan Anderson is a decent PG, but at 1.5, his A/TO ratio is just OK. Drew Peterson was a bit better at 1.6.

Max Agbonkpolo shot 36% from the field and 24% from the arc. He had a 0.7 A/TO ratio. I still don't know why he got 16 minutes a game, unless Enfield felt obligated to play him because he was highly-rated out of high school.

UCLA was interested in Joshua Morgan when he transferred from Long Beach. He blocked 2.5 shots per game in his one season with the 49ers. He and Goodwin should battle for the starting center job.

Reese Waters is the players formerly known as Reese Dixon-Waters. He is another one of those high-school kids who reclassified and joined the team mid-season.

RECRUITS

(#37 class, #5 in Pac-12)

Name	Size	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Malik Thomas	6-2 175	CG	4	81	Arizona, Washington, Pepperdine
Harrison Hornery	6-9 210	PF	4	102	Arizona, California, Utah, Washington State
Kobe Johnson	6-5 170	SG	3	247	California, DePaul, Kansas State, Colorado State

Sources in the local hoops scene think Malik Thomas will be one of the best freshmen in the Pac-12. He was named Gatorade State Player of the Year

Hornery is likely the least talented of the three bigs who play for Mater Dei. (I think Nick Davidson who is headed to Nevada may be the best. Wilhelm Breidenbach, who does his best Kurt Rambis imitation is headed for Nebraska.)

Another guy named "Kobe" is also coming in.

TRANSFERRING IN

Player	Size	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	From	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Rejean 'Boogie' Ellis	6-3 180	23	10	2	2	Memphis	Jr	4	38

Boogie Ellis shot 39% on his 3's last season in Memphis. Although he started 15 of the 28 games he played for Memphis, Ellis was named the American Athletic Conference sixth man of the year. He took 237 shots and had 43 assists. I don't think he likes to give the ball up.

They had a commitment from highly-rated JUCO KJ Allen, but in April he switched to Texas Tech. (I have to confess, I didn't know who the Texas Tech coach is, now that Chris Beard has left. It's Mark Adams, a Chris Beard assistant at Texas Tech.)

CONCLUSION

Clearly SC loses a TON of production, but they return quite a bit of experience and some good talent. They also are bringing in some good players. As much as it pains me to write this, SC should be one of the top teams in the league next year, and they should make the tournament.

Last Edit: Jul 9, 2021 9:28:02 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Apr 9, 2021 9:29:31 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Apr 9, 2021 9:29:31 GMT -8

CHANGES

May 10 - Added JUCO Rivaldo Soares

May 20 - Added Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier.

June 1 - Hardy declares for the draft and will not transfer.

June 2 - Eric Williams drops out of NBA draft

June 3 - Added Rutgers Transfer Jacob Young

Once again, Dana Altman has successfully hit the transfer market. In the first preview he had two guards on the roster. Now he has 4 quality guards (assuming Soares can play guard for Oregon.)
---------------

Finally, we have the first-place Oregon Ducks. They are familiar territory finishing first. They have won the league 4 of the last 6 seasons.

Once again, Dana Altman faces a big rebuilding year. However, this year he has to also replace his top assistant Tony Stubblefield who is now DePaul's head coach. Stubblefield was a big part of Oregon's recruiting. His replacement is Chris Crutchfield. Crutchfield most recently served as the head coach at East Central University, a Division II school in Ada, Oklahoma. He led the Tigers to a 10-9 record in the Great American Conference

Oregon was really a five-man team last season with not much of a bench. They are losing three of those five, and it is possible they could lose another.

Right now, next season's team doesn't look like it will be one of Dana Altman's better teams.

GRADUATING

- None -

IN THE DRAFT OR TURNING PRO

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Can Return?
Chris Duarte	33	17	5	3	No
Eugene Omoruyi	29	17	5	2	No
~~Eric Williams Jr.~~	30	10	6	2	~~Yes~~
LJ Figueroa	30	12	6	1	No
Amauri Hardy	19	4	1	2	No

Chris Duarte has said he is definitely turning pro.

Altman has said that both senior Eugene Omoruyi is going to move on from the program and attempt to make the NBA. Omoruyi is drawing significant NBA and overseas interest.

Figueroa has announced that he will hire an agent and is said to have signed with a team in the Dominican Republic.

Williams put his name in the draft, but then withdrew it.

TRANSFERRING OUT

Player	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Destination
~~Amauri Hardy~~	19	4	1	2	~~Georgia~~
Chandler Lawson	18	4	3	1	Memphis
Will Johnson	2	1	1	0
Jalen Terry	12	3	1	1	DePaul
Addison Patterson					Nevada
Aaron Estrada	12	3	2	1	Hofstra

Lawson was backup center for much of the season, but center is the one position where the Ducks are loaded. He didn't have much a future in Eugene.

Jalen Terry was the Ducks’ backup point guard and played in 20 games, including one start, this past season, averaging 2.9 points. His playing time diminished over the final weeks of the season. Terry joins the long-time Oregon lead assistant coach, who was named head coach at DePaul.

Amauri Hardy will be turning pro, and not transferring to Georgia.

Patterson decided to transfer to Nevada back in October and never played this season for the Ducks. He played in 28 games in the 2019-2020 season averaging 11 minutes and 5 points.

Aaron Estrada only played in 9 games after transferring in last season. With the departure of Jalen Terry and Amauri Hardy, he was expected to provide some backup minutes at PG for Will Richardson. With his departure, the Ducks are very thin at the guard position.

RETURNING

Oregon had only 3 players who played in all 28 games this season. All three are leaving.

Player	Games	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
Will Richardson	16	33	11	3	4	Sr	4	42
Eric Williams Jr.	24	30	10	6	2	Sr		Unranked
N'Faly Dante	6	18	8	6	0	Jr	5	24
Franck Kepnang	17	8	3	1	0	So	4	36
Lok Wur	11	5	2	1	0	So	3	478

The top 4 returning players are a damned good core. Will Richardson could be a candidate for Pac-12 player of the year.

Frank Kepnang was another one of those kids who should have been high-school seniors. In limited time with the Ducks he looked a bit raw. What do you expect for a kid who joined mid-season? But he seemed to have a significant upside.

Dante could be a monster, if if could only stay healthy.

RECRUITS

#70 class, #9 in Pac-12

Name	Size	Position	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank	Offers
Nathan Bittle	6-11 200	C	5	16	UCLA, Virginia, USC, Gonzaga
~~Johnathan Lawson~~	~~6-6 165~~	SF	4	91	~~Arkansas, Iowa State, Vanderbilt~~
Isaac Johnson	6-11 220	C	4	74	Utah, Gonzaga, Stanford, USC

Mark Few and Tony Bennet both offered Nathan Bittle. That tells me the kid can play and that Nathan isn't a hot dog.

Less than a week after Chandler Lawson entered the transfer portal, his younger brother, Johnathan Lawson, requested his release from his signed letter of intent as part of the Ducks' 2021 recruiting class. The Ducks granted his request.

Isaac Johnson is from the class of 2019, and spent the last two years on a Mormon mission. He may be a bit rusty, but he is a talented kid who will be older than most college freshmen.

TRANSFERRING IN

Player	Size	Minutes	Points	Rebounds	Assists	From	Class	Recruiting Stars	Recruiting Rank
De'Vion Harmon	6-0 192	32	13	3	2	Oklahoma	Jr	4	47
Rivaldo Soares	6-6 190		15	7	3	South Plains College	Jr		#10 JUCO
Quincy Guerrier	6-7 220	33	14	8	1	Syracuse	Jr	4	121
Jacob Young	6-2 185	30	14	2	3	Syracuse	Sr 5

Harmon gives the Ducks a desperately-needed guard. He has also declared for the NBA draft.  Harmon said he's still going through the NBA Draft process, but if he does choose to come back to school, it'll be at Oregon. Harmon was a 2-year starter at Oklahoma.

Soares gives Altman another desperately needed guard. He shot 34.5 percent on three-pointers and made 45.5 percent of his field goals. I imagine they are hoping he will be another Chris Duarte, but Duarte was the #1 JUCO his year, the #10.

Young is a HUGE get for Altman. He led a very good Rutgers team in assists and steals. Although his 1.0 A/TO ratio wasn't very good, he did shoot 47% from the floor and 37% on 3's.

Guerrier will have three years of eligibility remaining after playing two seasons of college basketball at Syracuse. He started all 28 games he played in for the Orange. He shot 49% percent from the field (31% from the arc) and had 1.1 blocks.  Guerrier declared for the NBA Draft after his sophomore season at Syracuse but is expected to withdraw his name and enroll at Oregon this summer.

CONCLUSION

At this point, Oregon has exactly TWO players listed as a guards on their roster, Will Richardson, who should put his name into the NBA draft, and De'Vion Harmon, who is in the NBA draft. Dana Altman needs to hit the transfer portal HARD.

Altman has 5 players on the roster who seem like Pac-12 level players. They are all talented. He has two 5-star and three 4-star players. But THREE of the 5 are centers. I have heard of twin towers, but not even Tolkien had three towers.

Right now Dana Altman's roster is talented, but incomplete. Three centers, a forward, and two guards. And it is not certain whether either guard will be at Oregon next season.

Altman is a great coach, but I am not sure even he can win with this roster.

Last Edit: Jun 4, 2021 8:51:26 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
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Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress May 4, 2021 9:53:00 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on May 4, 2021 9:53:00 GMT -8

Keepi in mind that at this stage things are constantly changing. Something may have changed by the time you read this.

TEAM	NATIONAL CLASS RANKING	PAC-12 CLASS RANKING	NUMBER OF RECRUITS	RETURNING PLAYERS (10 MINUTES+)	5-STAR PLAYERS	4-STAR PLAYERS	NEW PLAYERS	COMMENTS
Arizona	79	10	1	5	0	6	2
Arizona State	26	3	5	2-4	0	4-5	10	Still waiting on Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge
California	61	7	3	7	0	1	3
Colorado	8	1	5	4	0	4	6
Oregon	70	9	1	3-4	2	2-3	1-2	De'Vion Harmon could go to the NBA or transfer in.
Oregon State	64	8	2	6-7	0	0	6
Stanford	18	2	3	6	1	3	3
UCLA	31	4	2	5-9	1-2	8	3
USC	40	5	3	5-6	0-1	5	4
Utah	--	--	1	3	0	4	5
Washington	46	6	3	1-2	0-1	4	6	Waiting on Quade Green's decision
Washington State	107	11	1	9-10	0	1	5	Waiting on Isaac Bonton's decision

To simply things, there are three roster qualities that typically lead to a successful season:

Returning Players
Talent
Depth

Here is how I would characterize each team:

TEAM	RETURNING PLAYERS	TALENT	DEPTH
Arizona	Good	Good	Good
Arizona State	Poor	Good	Good
California	Excellent	Poor	Good
Colorado	Fair	Fair	Good
Oregon	Fair	Excellent	Poor
Oregon State	Excellent	Poor	Very Good
Stanford	Good	Good	Good
UCLA	Good to Excellent	Outstanding	Excellent
USC	Good	Very Good	Excellent
Utah	Poor	Fair	Good
Washington	Poor	Fair to Good	Fair
Washington State	Outstanding	Fair	Excellent

The teams that do well on all three factors are Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Stanford. At this point, these look like they will be the three best teams in the league next season.

Other teams that could have a good season are Oregon State, Washington State, and Oregon.

Last Edit: May 7, 2021 7:58:34 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
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Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Jun 22, 2021 10:12:03 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Jun 22, 2021 10:12:03 GMT -8

This is a summary of UCLA offers using data from 247 and other sources.

CLASS OF 2022

	Position	Size	National Rank	Stars	From	Other Offers	Interest
Dylan Andrews	PG	6-3 180	36	4	So Cal (AZ)		UCLA Commit
Milos Uzan	PG	6-4 185	120	4	NV	Arizona, Washington, Oregon, SC	Cool
Dariq Whitehead	SF	6-6 190	5	5	FL	Duke, Florida State, Auburn, Florida	Cool
Mark Mitchell	SF	6-8 205	10	5	KS	Duke, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Kansas	Warm
Kijani Wright	PF	6-6 220	12	5	So Cal	Arkansas, Texas, Florida St, Kansas	Cool
Sadraque Nganga	PF	6-9 205	16	5	AZ	Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas	Warm
Kyle Filipowski	PF	6-11 230	45	4	MA	Iowa, Ohio State, Syracuse	Cool
Colin Smith	PF	6-8 200	116	4	AZ	Baylor, Michigan, Texas, Kansas	Cool
Koat Keat	PF	6-9 190	149	3	So Cal	USC	Warm
Jalen Duren	C	6-10 230	2	5	FL	Kentucky, Michigan, Alabama, Villanova	Cool
Dereck Lively II	C	7-1 220	20	5	PA	Duke, Kentucky, No Carolina, Florida	Cool
Amari Bailey	CG	6-5 190	3	5	So Cal		UCLA Commit
~~Skyy Clark~~	CG	~~6-3 200~~	11	1	Fl		~~Kentucky Commit~~

A likely class is Dylan Andrews, Amari Bailey, and either Mark Mitchell or Koat Keat.

CLASS OF 2023

	Position	Size	National Rank	Stars	From	Other Offers	Interest
Kylan Boswell	PG	6-1 180	Unranked		So Cal	Arizona, Kansas, Illinois, Texas
Rayvon Griffith	SG	6-4 180	25	5	OH	Alabama, Kansas, Louisville, Ohio State
Mackenzie Mgbako	SF	6-7 185	10	5	NJ	Auburn, Duke, Ohio State, Louisville
Mookie Cook	SF	6-7 200	14	5	OR	Arizona State, Auburn, Kansas, Oregon
Matas Buzelis	SF	6-8 175	Unranked		NH	Illinois, Kansas, Syracuse
Jalen Lewis	C	6-8 205	215	5	Nor Cal	Kentucky, Kansas, Arkansas, Stanford
Aaron Bradshaw	C	7-0 210	Unranked		NJ	LSU, Miami, Rutgers, Nebraska
Mikey Williams	CG	6-2 175	3	5	NC	Arizona State, Kansas, LSU Oregon
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Do you get the impression that Kansas offers everyone?

Last Edit: Jun 22, 2021 10:36:52 GMT -8 by mhbruin

mhbruin
Executive Member

Posts: 5,572

Work in Progress Jul 2, 2021 9:13:48 GMT -8

Quote

Post by mhbruin on Jul 2, 2021 9:13:48 GMT -8

Rank out of 130

	UCLA	ASU	Row 1 column 4
Total	47 (428 yds)	41 (439)
Scoring	26 (39 pts)	50 (33)
Rushing Offense	41 (194 yds)	25 (212 yds)
Passing	65 (234 yds)	71 (228 yds)

Yards Per Rush	4.5	Row 10 column 3	Row 10 column 4
Row 11 column 1	Row 11 column 2	Row 11 column 3	Row 11 column 4
Row 12 column 1	Row 12 column 2	Row 12 column 3	Row 12 column 4
Row 13 column 1	Row 13 column 2	Row 13 column 3	Row 13 column 4
Row 14 column 1	Row 14 column 2	Row 14 column 3	Row 14 column 4
Row 15 column 1	Row 15 column 2	Row 15 column 3	Row 15 column 4
Row 16 column 1	Row 16 column 2	Row 16 column 3	Row 16 column 4
Row 17 column 1	Row 17 column 2	Row 17 column 3	Row 17 column 4
Row 18 column 1	Row 18 column 2	Row 18 column 3	Row 18 column 4
Row 19 column 1	Row 19 column 2	Row 19 column 3	Row 19 column 4
Row 20 column 1	Row 20 column 2	Row 20 column 3	Row 20 column 4

	UCLA	ASU	Row 1 column 4
Total Defense	47 ( yds)	41 ()
Scoring D	26 ()	50 ()
Rushing D	5 (64 yds)	50 (123 yds)
Passing D	126 (330 yds)	5 (124 yds)
R
Yards Per Rush	4.5	Row 10 column 3	Row 10 column 4
Sacks	Row 11 column 2	Row 11 column 3	Row 11 column 4
Row 12 column 1	Row 12 column 2	Row 12 column 3	Row 12 column 4
Row 13 column 1	Row 13 column 2	Row 13 column 3	Row 13 column 4
Row 14 column 1	Row 14 column 2	Row 14 column 3	Row 14 column 4
Row 15 column 1	Row 15 column 2	Row 15 column 3	Row 15 column 4
Row 16 column 1	Row 16 column 2	Row 16 column 3	Row 16 column 4
Row 17 column 1	Row 17 column 2	Row 17 column 3	Row 17 column 4
Row 18 column 1	Row 18 column 2	Row 18 column 3	Row 18 column 4
Row 19 column 1	Row 19 column 2	Row 19 column 3	Row 19 column 4
Row 20 column 1	Row 20 column 2	Row 20 column 3	Row 20 column 4

Last Edit: Sept 27, 2021 14:52:43 GMT -8 by mhbruin