UCLA vs Gonzaga Preview

What's our reward for beating a #1 seed?  A game with the overall #1 seed.  A game with possibly the best team in a generation.  Then a game with Baylor probably waiting in the wings.  At least we don't have to play the Lakers.

Gonzaga is better on offense and defense than Michigan, who we just beat by 1 point.

At this point, we are the only team left who might have to beat three #1 seeds to win it all.

METRICS

Line: Gonzaga  -14

ESPN BPI: UCLA wins 10% of the time.

Torvick Predictor: UCLA wins 14% of the time.

538:  UCLA wins 17% of the time.

Warren Nolan:  Gonzaga wins 87-70.

Odd of UCLA winning the championship:  25-1.
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It should come as no surprise that the computers and Vegas see the Zags as favorites.  A 15% chance of victory looks pretty good at this point.


*NOTE:  The NET doesn't update after selection Sunday.

GONZAGA'S RECORD

You might have heard this one before:  Gonzaga is undefeated.  That makes it hard to find any weak spots in their record.



Outside of the tournament, Gonzaga has wins over Iowa by 11, Kansas by 12, Virginia by 23, and West Virginia by 5.  

They were also trailing BYU by 9, with 9 minutes to go before winning by 10.  

They have looked mortal a couple of times.

However, in the tournament, they have beaten Oklahoma by 16, Creighton by 18, and SC by 19.  None of those games were as close as the final score would indicate.

UCLA'S OFFENSE VS GONZAGA'S DEFENSE

I am matching each team's offense with the other team's defense.  For example, UCLA shoots 45.8% from the field and Gonzaga allows their opponents to shoot 41.6%.  


In most respects, this looks a lot like the Michigan game.  Elite offense vs. elite defense. 

We were not that successful scoring on Michigan.  We only scored 51, which was our second-lowest output of the season.  And Gonzaga is likely a bit better on defense than Michigan.  Nonetheless, I think we can score on them.

Advantage:  Even

UCLA'S DEFENSE VS GONZAGA'S OFFENSE


Gonzaga has the best offense in the country.  All the metrics say it.  All the numbers say it.  

It is not because of great 3-point shooting.  They are very good at it, but we have faced other very good 3-point shooting teams.  

It's inside the arc that they are insanely good.  They shoot almost 64% on 2-point shots.  Between Timme posting up, fast breaks, and breaking teams down off the dribble, they live at the rim.  Not even USC and their size could keep the Zags away from the rim.  The Zags shot 58% inside the arc against the Trojans.

How do the undersized Bruins stop this short-shot juggernaut?  We have a few weapons. 

First we need to control tempo.  Unlike Michigan, Gonzaga plays one of the fastest tempos in the nation.  We play one of the slowest.  Slowing them down isn't easy. They have only been held under 80 points three times all season.  However, we rarely get sped up.

Second, don't turn the ball over.  We're pretty good at that.  

Third, don't let Timme back down our bigs for an easy hook shot.  Do we double?  I think we should, but not with the man guarding Kispert. 

Fourth, keep Cody out of foul trouble.  We have been doing pretty well, even when he gets in foul trouble, but getting in foul trouble seems like a bad strategic move.

Finally, limit penetration.

None of this is rocket science.  Teams have been trying to do it all season, usually with little success.  

UCLA's defensive stats are misleading.  We have been playing MUCH better defense recently.  This is not as big a mismatch as it might appear.

Nonetheless, we have our work cut out for us.

Advantage: Gonzaga - By quite a bit.

OTHER FACTORS


They seem to be the better rebounding team, but I suspect some of this has to do with playing in the WCC.   They aren't any better at offensive rebounding than we are.

They are an exceptionally good passing team.  

We are 13-3 in close games.  They are 1-0.   If we can keep it close, our experience in close games would help, but first we need to keep it close. 

Advantage: Even

PLAYERS

Gonzaga goes 7 deep, but this team doesn't get that much from the bench, other than Watson who is very good.  


Kispert might be listed as a forward, but this team consists of Timme and four wings.  All the of the wings are dual-threat players.  They are great to competent outside shooters and any of them can take the defender off the dribble and get to the hoop.

Their offense really consists of getting the ball into Timme.  If he is doubled, he kicks the ball out to a shooter.  The shooter takes the shot, or gets by the guy trying to close out and tries for a layup.  Of course, the outside guy might also kick it to anther shooter.

If you don't double Timme, he is very good at backing down defenders for his deadly hook shot.

As mentioned earlier, this team is not deadly from the three-point line.  The exception is Kispert, who is a great outside shooter.   And over half his shots are 3's.

The other dangerous outside shooter is Ayayi.  However, he seems to like to drive more.

Nembhard, OTOH, seems more likely to take the outside shot.

Overall, I think we need to stay with Kispert on the arc and challenge the rest of the shooters to beat us from the outside.  That is better than letting them drive past us.

As for Timme, as Bill Walton would say, "Timme is left-handed and will remain so for the entire game."    

The interesting question is who does Tyger guard?   I might have him guard Nembhard.  Again, stay in front of him and challenge him to shoot over you.

CONCLUSION