Post by mhbruin on Feb 19, 2021 13:20:52 GMT -8
When we last met the Sun Devils in Tempe, we needed OT to eke out a 6-point win. Cody Riley has a season-high 22 points and 13 rebounds.
Four of their nine top rotation players did not play. That has been a theme all season. Only ONE of their top 9 players has played in every game. And some of their players are questionable for our game.
Of course, we shouldn't have too much sympathy when we are playing without Smith or Hill and Riley will not be 100%.
ASU'S RECORD
This will be a Quad 3 game for UCLA and a Quad 1 game for Arizona St.
ASU has to be the most disappointing team in the Pac-12 this season. They were ranked 17th in the pre-season polls and they have 7-10 record.
Some of their losses are respectable. They lost to Villanova by 9 and to San Diego State by 12. (We lost by 15.) Losses to SC and Arizona aren't terrible.
However, they have also lost to Oregon State. And then there is the loss to UTEP by 13. UTEP is 159 in KenPom. Go figure.
Their best win is a home win over Stanford. Their next best win is over 10-12 Rhode Island. ASU only beat Grand Canyon by 1, but Grand Canyon is leading the WAC.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -8½
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 80% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 79% of the time.
According to the computers we are a better team, we are better at offense, and we are better at defense. We are also better at winning games.
They played a slightly tougher schedule than we did.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
We shoot better than they do, at least from the field. They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't do it all that well.
They don't have that many assists. This is partly because they miss a lot of shots, but they probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball that well. They can play team ball in spurts, but they are also prone to hero ball.
DEFENSE
They are a crappy defensive team. The don't defend inside the arc or outside the arc very well, and they give up a TON of points.
They do one thing well. They steal the ball. As we noted in the previous section, we lead the league in fewest turnovers. If we take care of the ball, we should score. A LOT!
OTHER FACTORS
They are getting killed on the boards. They problem is they don't have much of a front line. They have a few guys who are 6-8 or 6-9, but they are all thin. And we are a good rebounding team.
The fact that leading rebounder Marcus Bagley has been out hasn't helped.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
ASU has played 10 players, but they don't usually go that deep. Because so many have missed games, they rarely play the same lineup.
Christopher and Bagley are two of their leading scorers, but Bagley hasn't played since the end of January and Christopher missed their last two games.
We don't know if either will play on Saturday.
Remy Martin is their star. He has scored in double digits in 8 straight games and in their last 4 games he has score 23 or more. He has scored 30 twice. However, he also takes a lot of shots. He can shoot 70% from the field or 25%. In either case, he will keep shooting.
Last season, Alonzo Verge looked like he was going to be a star. However, his scoring and shooting are down this year, although his 3-point shooting has improved. That is where he is most dangerous.
Christopher and Bagley are very talented, but clearly freshmen. Christopher likes to shoot the ball, which seems to be a theme with the Sun Devils. If he plays, he will make some difficult shots, but he will take a lot of difficult shots.
The rest of these guys are good second-string players who often are forced to play first string minutes. None of them are asked to score a lot. The "stars" don't want to share the ball.
CONCLUSION
We are better at:
What do they do well? They steal the ball.
If Bagley and Christopher play, they have a lot of talent. If they don't, Remy will try to win the game single-handedly. That doesn't usually end well for them.
Their biggest weakness is the front line. They couldn't handle Riley in the first game. Unfortunately, he probably won't be 100% on Saturday.
We are undefeated at home. Their road wins are at Grand Canyon and California. I expect both of those facts to still be true at the final buzzer.
Four of their nine top rotation players did not play. That has been a theme all season. Only ONE of their top 9 players has played in every game. And some of their players are questionable for our game.
Of course, we shouldn't have too much sympathy when we are playing without Smith or Hill and Riley will not be 100%.
ASU'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-3 | 2-2 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
Arizona St | 0-5 | 3-4 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
This will be a Quad 3 game for UCLA and a Quad 1 game for Arizona St.
ASU has to be the most disappointing team in the Pac-12 this season. They were ranked 17th in the pre-season polls and they have 7-10 record.
Some of their losses are respectable. They lost to Villanova by 9 and to San Diego State by 12. (We lost by 15.) Losses to SC and Arizona aren't terrible.
However, they have also lost to Oregon State. And then there is the loss to UTEP by 13. UTEP is 159 in KenPom. Go figure.
Their best win is a home win over Stanford. Their next best win is over 10-12 Rhode Island. ASU only beat Grand Canyon by 1, but Grand Canyon is leading the WAC.
UCLA at Home | 10-0 |
ASU on the Road | 2-3 |
METRICS
Line: UCLA -8½
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 80% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 79% of the time.
ASU | UCLA | |
NET | 120 | 39 |
KenPom Rank | 98 | 41 |
Adjusted O Rank | 77 | 28 |
Adjusted D Rank | 127 | 70 |
Sagarin Rank | 90 | 37 |
Record | 10-7 | 15-5 |
SOS | 54 | 68 |
According to the computers we are a better team, we are better at offense, and we are better at defense. We are also better at winning games.
They played a slightly tougher schedule than we did.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
ASU | UCLA | |||
Scoring Offense | 3 | 74.6 | 6 | 74.1 |
FG Percent | 9 | 43.3% | 6 | 45.2% |
3-Pt Percent | 11 | 32.7% | 3 | 35.8% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 2 | 22 | 8 | 19 |
FT Percent | 4 | 73.9% | 8 | 71.5% |
FT Attempts Per Game | 4 | 21.1 | 7 | 19.7 |
Assists Per Game | 8 | 12.6 | 4 | 14.2 |
Fewest Turnovers | 2 | 11.2 | 1 | 10.9 |
We shoot better than they do, at least from the field. They shoot a lot of 3's, but they don't do it all that well.
They don't have that many assists. This is partly because they miss a lot of shots, but they probably play too much 1-on-one offense, and they don't share the ball that well. They can play team ball in spurts, but they are also prone to hero ball.
DEFENSE
ASU | UCLA | |||
Scoring Defense | 12 | 77.3 | 5 | 67.1 |
FG Percent Defense | 11 | 45.6% | 6 | 42.7% |
3-Pt Percent Defense | 11 | 36.2% | 7 | 33.8% |
Steals Per Game | 2 | 7.2 | 9 | 5.5 |
Blocks Per Game | 8 | 3.5 | 11 | 2.7 |
They are a crappy defensive team. The don't defend inside the arc or outside the arc very well, and they give up a TON of points.
They do one thing well. They steal the ball. As we noted in the previous section, we lead the league in fewest turnovers. If we take care of the ball, we should score. A LOT!
OTHER FACTORS
ASU | UCLA | |||
Rebound Margin | 11 | -8.5 | 3 | 4.5 |
Offensive Rebounds | 11 | 7.9 | 4 | 10.4 |
Defensive Rebounds | 11 | 5 | ||
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 7 | 1.1 | 2 | 1.3 |
They are getting killed on the boards. They problem is they don't have much of a front line. They have a few guys who are 6-8 or 6-9, but they are all thin. And we are a good rebounding team.
The fact that leading rebounder Marcus Bagley has been out hasn't helped.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs.
PLAYERS
ASU has played 10 players, but they don't usually go that deep. Because so many have missed games, they rarely play the same lineup.
Christopher and Bagley are two of their leading scorers, but Bagley hasn't played since the end of January and Christopher missed their last two games.
We don't know if either will play on Saturday.
Games Played | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | |
Remy Martin | 15 | 33 | 20 | 46% | 33% |
Josh Christopher | 15 | 30 | 14 | 43% | 31% |
Alonzo Verge | 15 | 29 | 13 | 37% | 37% |
Marcus Bagley | 11 | 30 | 12 | 40% | 36% |
Jalen Graham | 14 | 34 | 9 | 63% | 0% |
Holland Woods | 17 | 24 | 6 | 35% | 29% |
Kimani Lawrence | 15 | 19 | 5 | 45% | 17% |
Jaelen House | 14 | 15 | 4 | 39% | 31% |
Chris Osten | 16 | 17 | 3 | 59% | 0% |
Taeshon Cherry | 7 | 16 | 4 | 36% | 32% |
Remy Martin is their star. He has scored in double digits in 8 straight games and in their last 4 games he has score 23 or more. He has scored 30 twice. However, he also takes a lot of shots. He can shoot 70% from the field or 25%. In either case, he will keep shooting.
Last season, Alonzo Verge looked like he was going to be a star. However, his scoring and shooting are down this year, although his 3-point shooting has improved. That is where he is most dangerous.
Christopher and Bagley are very talented, but clearly freshmen. Christopher likes to shoot the ball, which seems to be a theme with the Sun Devils. If he plays, he will make some difficult shots, but he will take a lot of difficult shots.
The rest of these guys are good second-string players who often are forced to play first string minutes. None of them are asked to score a lot. The "stars" don't want to share the ball.
CONCLUSION
We are better at:
- Offense
- Defense
- Rebounding
- Sharing the ball
- Protecting the ball
What do they do well? They steal the ball.
If Bagley and Christopher play, they have a lot of talent. If they don't, Remy will try to win the game single-handedly. That doesn't usually end well for them.
Their biggest weakness is the front line. They couldn't handle Riley in the first game. Unfortunately, he probably won't be 100% on Saturday.
We are undefeated at home. Their road wins are at Grand Canyon and California. I expect both of those facts to still be true at the final buzzer.