Post by mhbruin on Feb 16, 2021 11:36:47 GMT -8
I think Arizona is one of the most talented teams in the Pac-12. I don't think they have lived up to their potential, but they are very dangerous.
UCLA won by 5 in Tucson just over a month ago. That seems like an eternity and Arizona has made major changes to their rotation and we are likely without Hill. This is not exactly a rematch of the same teams.
Here's a chilling thought. In our first meeting, Hill collected 4 fouls in 14 minutes. Riley was limited to 17 minutes because of 3 fouls. Nwuba was called on and got 4 fouls in 9 minutes. We do have Etienne now, but we cannot afford Riley to get into foul trouble when Hill is not an option.
Statistically, the two teams seem pretty similar.
This is a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for Arizona (not that it matters to them, since they won't be in the post-season).
ARIZONA'S RECORD
Our Stanford loss has dropped from Quad 1 to Quad 2 since their NET ranking has dropped.
Arizona is 14-7. You can divide their record into teams with a NET ranking of 1-99 and 100+. With one exception, they beat weak teams and lose to good ones.
UCLA's NET ranking is 49. That looks good. On paper we are one of the good teams that Arizona loses to.
The one win over a stronger team was over Colorado (NET #20) in Tucson. (Colorado has proven they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.) Arizona has yet to beat a good team on the road.
UCLA at Home: 9-0
Arizona on the Road: 4-2
Arizona's 2 road losses were at Utah and Colorado, arguably the toughest road swing in the Pac-12.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 58% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 52% of the time.
According to the computers, the two teams are pretty evenly matched. At this point, they probably favor us slightly because we are playing at home.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Both teams are pretty similar on offense. They score a bit more.
They shoot the 3 a little better, but they don't shoot then quite as often.
They get to the line more, but also turn the ball over more.
DEFENSE
This is not a vintage Sean Miller great defensive team. Of course we are not a Mick Cronin vintage team either. Both teams seem to be pretty similar statistically.
They get more blocks and more steals.
OTHER FACTORS
This game could be decided on the boards, particularly if Hill doesn't play. They are an excellent rebounding team, particularly on the offensive boards.
We will likely need to play Mac a lot. He is great on the boards, but we give up quite a bit on offense when he is in the game.
PLAYERS
Since we last met the Wildcats, they have replaced three starters in their lineup. Christian Koloko has replaced Jordan Brown, Benedict (don't call me "eggs") Mathurin has replaced Dalen Terry, and Kerr (named after Steve) Kriisa has replaced Jemarl Baker who is done for the season. Mathurin and Koloko are significant upgrades.
And Bill Walton's favorite Ira Lee is injured.
Arizona goes 8 deep. They are a very talented 8 players. The first 4 listed below will play pro ball. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 play in the NBA at some point.
James Akinjo is a very quick PG who leads them in scoring, but only scores 14 per game. Their scoring is very balanced. Those stats are correct. He shoots better from the 3-point line than inside the arc. But only 40% of his shots are 3's. Akinjo also has a solid 2.2 A/TO ratio.
Half of their Lithuanian contingent is 6-11 Azuolas Tubelis who doesn't immediately wow you, but he does everything well. He's has skills and plays with a non-stop motor. Mick Cronin would love this guy. I am sure Sean Miller does.
Mathurin is talented and makes everything look easy. He is dangerous from anywhere on the floor, but inconsistent. He has scored as little as 4 and as many as 31 points.
The other Lithuanian is Kerr Kriisa . He recently joined the team and they believe he will be a star. He has a 3.0 A/TO ratio. He is still adapting.
Christian Koloko is a raw, but very athletic 7-1 center. They won't run plays for him, but he will get his points off of offensive rebounds or when a guard penetrates and kicks it to him.
Jordan Brown is a McDonald All-American center. He hasn't thrived in Tucson, but 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 57% shooting is nothing to sneeze at.
Backup PG Terrell Brown is excellent. He has a 4.3 A/TO ratio.
Dalen Terry was their highest-rated recruit out of HS. He is a solid player to round out the roster.
CONCLUSION
On paper, this game seems like an even match. Strictly based on talent, I would favor Arizona. However, they haven't really played up to their potential this year. Let's hope they keep doing that for at least one more game.
We are undefeated at home and they have not beaten a quality opponent on the road. If we can handle them on the boards, I like our chances. However that is a BIG "if".
This game scares me a lot. UCLA may be the favorite, but I see it as a total tossup. Get ready for a long, nervous night.
On another topic, you have to wonder a bit about Sean Miller's future. The President of You-of-Ayy seems to be a big Sean Miller Booster, but after 8 great season, the Wildcats have finished 9th and 5th in the conference and they are currently in 6th place. The NCAA is hovering on the horizon.
Just about everything is hot in Tucson. Is Sean Miller's seat one of those things?
UCLA won by 5 in Tucson just over a month ago. That seems like an eternity and Arizona has made major changes to their rotation and we are likely without Hill. This is not exactly a rematch of the same teams.
Here's a chilling thought. In our first meeting, Hill collected 4 fouls in 14 minutes. Riley was limited to 17 minutes because of 3 fouls. Nwuba was called on and got 4 fouls in 9 minutes. We do have Etienne now, but we cannot afford Riley to get into foul trouble when Hill is not an option.
Statistically, the two teams seem pretty similar.
This is a Quad 2 game for us and a Quad 1 game for Arizona (not that it matters to them, since they won't be in the post-season).
ARIZONA'S RECORD
QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
UCLA | 2-3 | 1-2 | 7-0 | 4-0 |
Arizona | 1-2 | 3-5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
Our Stanford loss has dropped from Quad 1 to Quad 2 since their NET ranking has dropped.
Arizona is 14-7. You can divide their record into teams with a NET ranking of 1-99 and 100+. With one exception, they beat weak teams and lose to good ones.
NET | RECORD |
1-99 | 1-7 |
100+ | 13-0 |
UCLA's NET ranking is 49. That looks good. On paper we are one of the good teams that Arizona loses to.
The one win over a stronger team was over Colorado (NET #20) in Tucson. (Colorado has proven they can beat anyone and lose to anyone.) Arizona has yet to beat a good team on the road.
UCLA at Home: 9-0
Arizona on the Road: 4-2
Arizona's 2 road losses were at Utah and Colorado, arguably the toughest road swing in the Pac-12.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -2
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 58% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 52% of the time.
Arizona | UCLA | |
NET | 47 | 49 |
KenPom Rank | 41 | 46 |
Adjusted O Rank | 18 | 26 |
Adjusted D Rank | 88 | 82 |
Sagarin Rank | 49 | 40 |
Record | 14-7 | 14-5 |
SOS | 84 | 68 |
According to the computers, the two teams are pretty evenly matched. At this point, they probably favor us slightly because we are playing at home.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Arizona | UCLA | |||
Scoring Offense | 1 | 76.5 | 6 | 73.0 |
FG Percent | 6 | 45.1% | 7 | 44.8% |
3-Pt Percent | 1 | 38.1% | 3 | 36.2% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 10 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
FT Percent | 7 | 8 | ||
FT Attempts Per Game | 1 | 24.7 | 6 | 20.2 |
Assists Per Game | 1 | 15.7 | 4 | 14.2 |
Fewest Turnovers | 6 | 15.7 | 2 | 11.1 |
Both teams are pretty similar on offense. They score a bit more.
They shoot the 3 a little better, but they don't shoot then quite as often.
They get to the line more, but also turn the ball over more.
DEFENSE
Arizona | UCLA | |||
Scoring Defense | 7 | 68.1 | 5 | 67.5 |
FG Percent Defense | 6 | 42.7% | 7 | 42.8% |
3-Pt Percent Defense | 8 | 35.3% | 7 | 34.2% |
Steals Per Game | 5 | 6.2 | 9 | 5.3 |
Blocks Per Game | 2 | 4.1 | 11 | 2.7 |
This is not a vintage Sean Miller great defensive team. Of course we are not a Mick Cronin vintage team either. Both teams seem to be pretty similar statistically.
They get more blocks and more steals.
OTHER FACTORS
Arizona | UCLA | |||
Rebound Margin | 2 | 7.9 | 3 | 4.7 |
Offensive Rebounds | 1 | 12.0 | 4 | 10.6 |
Defensive Rebounds | 3 | 26.6 | 6 | 25.5 |
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 2 | 1.3 | 3 | 1.3 |
This game could be decided on the boards, particularly if Hill doesn't play. They are an excellent rebounding team, particularly on the offensive boards.
We will likely need to play Mac a lot. He is great on the boards, but we give up quite a bit on offense when he is in the game.
PLAYERS
Since we last met the Wildcats, they have replaced three starters in their lineup. Christian Koloko has replaced Jordan Brown, Benedict (don't call me "eggs") Mathurin has replaced Dalen Terry, and Kerr (named after Steve) Kriisa has replaced Jemarl Baker who is done for the season. Mathurin and Koloko are significant upgrades.
And Bill Walton's favorite Ira Lee is injured.
Arizona goes 8 deep. They are a very talented 8 players. The first 4 listed below will play pro ball. It wouldn't surprise me if all 4 play in the NBA at some point.
Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | |
James Akinjo | 21 | 34 | 14 | 36% | 39% | 2 |
Azuolas Tubelis | 21 | 26 | 12 | 40% | 34% | 3 |
Bennedict Mathurin | 21 | 24 | 12 | 49% | 43% | 5 |
Kerr Kriisa | 4 | 19 | 6 | 32% | 33% | 1 |
Christian Koloko | 21 | 18 | 5 | 49% | 0% | 5 |
Jordan Brown | 21 | 20 | 10 | 57% | 0% | 5 |
Terrell Brown | 21 | 27 | 8 | 42% | 43% | 4 |
Dalen Terry | 21 | 21 | 4 | 41% | 33% | 3 |
James Akinjo is a very quick PG who leads them in scoring, but only scores 14 per game. Their scoring is very balanced. Those stats are correct. He shoots better from the 3-point line than inside the arc. But only 40% of his shots are 3's. Akinjo also has a solid 2.2 A/TO ratio.
Half of their Lithuanian contingent is 6-11 Azuolas Tubelis who doesn't immediately wow you, but he does everything well. He's has skills and plays with a non-stop motor. Mick Cronin would love this guy. I am sure Sean Miller does.
Mathurin is talented and makes everything look easy. He is dangerous from anywhere on the floor, but inconsistent. He has scored as little as 4 and as many as 31 points.
The other Lithuanian is Kerr Kriisa . He recently joined the team and they believe he will be a star. He has a 3.0 A/TO ratio. He is still adapting.
Christian Koloko is a raw, but very athletic 7-1 center. They won't run plays for him, but he will get his points off of offensive rebounds or when a guard penetrates and kicks it to him.
Jordan Brown is a McDonald All-American center. He hasn't thrived in Tucson, but 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 57% shooting is nothing to sneeze at.
Backup PG Terrell Brown is excellent. He has a 4.3 A/TO ratio.
Dalen Terry was their highest-rated recruit out of HS. He is a solid player to round out the roster.
CONCLUSION
On paper, this game seems like an even match. Strictly based on talent, I would favor Arizona. However, they haven't really played up to their potential this year. Let's hope they keep doing that for at least one more game.
We are undefeated at home and they have not beaten a quality opponent on the road. If we can handle them on the boards, I like our chances. However that is a BIG "if".
This game scares me a lot. UCLA may be the favorite, but I see it as a total tossup. Get ready for a long, nervous night.
On another topic, you have to wonder a bit about Sean Miller's future. The President of You-of-Ayy seems to be a big Sean Miller Booster, but after 8 great season, the Wildcats have finished 9th and 5th in the conference and they are currently in 6th place. The NCAA is hovering on the horizon.
Just about everything is hot in Tucson. Is Sean Miller's seat one of those things?