Post by mhbruin on Feb 5, 2021 12:52:52 GMT -8
This is Andy Enfield's best team, and may be the best team he will ever have at USC. On the other hand, this is Mick Cronin's best team, but isn't likely to be nearly as good as some future teams.
Enough about the future. It's time to focus on Saturday.
USC'S RECORD
USC's best wins are over BYU and road wins over Arizona and Stanford.
Their 3 losses are to Colorado, UConn, and at Oregon State.
Neither their wins nor their losses are surprising. Oregon State may be a Quad 3 loss, but they are a dangerous team.
They have won 9 of their last 10, with Oregon State as the only loss in 2021. However, they have had their struggles. Less than a month ago, they needed OT to beat UC Riverside at Galen.
They are a very good team, but not unbeatable.
METRICS
Line: USC -3
ESPN Predictor: UCLA win 33% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 37% of the time
The computers generally favor SC over us, but not by a ton. We are comparable on offense, but they are a little better on defense.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
Our offensive stats match up pretty well with those of USC. We both play around the same pace, although they play a little faster.
We shoot the 3 better, we shoot free throws quite a bit better, and we turn the ball over less.
They get to the line a lot, but they are really bad at shooting them.
They turn the ball over more and have fewer assists.
Advantage UCLA, if only a modest one.
DEFENSE
There are a very good defensive team, but this is mostly due to their interior defense. They don't defend the arc that well.
The elephant in the preview is blocks. They block a LOT of shots. And blocks don't just keep a player from scoring. They can intimidate players and discourage them from driving. They can also lead to fast breaks and easy baskets.
Overall, advantage USC, but not if this turns into a 3-point shooting contest.
OTHER FACTORS
In sprite of their size, USC is not a rebounding monster like Arizona. They get a lot of rebounds, but they give up a lot of rebounds, too. We match up pretty well on the boards.
Although SC is very good on their offensive glass, but we don't give up that many offensive rebounds. That looks like a push.
Our A/TO margin is better.
PLAYERS
Andy Enfield had to hit the free agent market transfer portal, since he was only returning 3 players from last year's team, and only had a 2-man recruiting class. And one of this two recruits was Boubacar Coulibaly, who has barely played, but may have the coolest first name in college basketball. (Otherwise Enfield has little name imagination with two Mobleys and two Isaiahs.)
So he brought in 6 transfers and 5 of them have played well for him. That has left him with a solid 9-man rotation. And he has had nice roster stability with 8 of them playing in every game.
For the most part, we want them to shoot 3's rather than get in the lane. The three exception are Drew Peterson, Tahj Eaddy, and Ethan Anderson.
Clearly their star is Evan Mobley. He is tall, skilled, and mobile, but not exactly a banger. He doesn't seem to like physical play. He can make the 3, but we would like to see him hanging around the arc.
Mobley will post up sometimes, but that is not really his game. He would rather be somewhere on the wing when he gets the ball and work from there.
I know a lot of people worry about Evan Mobley getting our bigs into foul trouble. However, he does seem to draw quite a few fouls. He has shot 105 free throws in 17 games. That is around 6 free throws per game. However, he is only making around 58% of his free throws.
Santa Clara transfer Tahj Eaddy is a dangerous scorer as he showed in the closing minutes against Stanford.
Rice Transfer Drew Peterson is their best outside shooter, but he is a solid all-around player.
Isaiah Mobley isn't going to score by creating his own shot, but moves well without the ball. He also doesn't like to bang.
Wofford transfer Chevez Goodwin does a good job as the third big in the rotation.
Ethan Anderson is coming back from injury, and is a dangerous outside shooter.
Max Agbonkpolo has been playing better of late, but I would be happy to see him shoot from anywhere on the floor.
If there is a weakness on their roster it is the lack of a true PG. 6-9 Drew Peterson plays that role a lot, but he is no Kyle Anderson. Ethan Anderson is not a true PG, but he has also played the role. The lack of a PG probably contributes to their low A/TO ratio.
CONCLUSION
The computers think this is likely to be the toughest game remaining on our schedule, and I see no reason to doubt that. However, we are not overmatched.
The statistics show two well-matched teams. So why is SC a solid favorite? Because the road is dark and full of terrors.
This may not be a normal road game with no crowd and no overnight travel, but teams play better on their home floor.
UCLA On The Road: 3-2
USC At Home: 13-1
There is one other factor that may balance the scales. Mick Cronin is just a better coach than Andy Enfield.
I see this game as a nail-biter. That isn't exactly going out on a limb. All our games are nail-biters.
Enough about the future. It's time to focus on Saturday.
USC'S RECORD
| QUAD 1 | QUAD 2 | QUAD 3 | QUAD 4 | |
| UCLA | 2-3 | 1-0 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| USC | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7-1 | 3-0 |
USC's best wins are over BYU and road wins over Arizona and Stanford.
Their 3 losses are to Colorado, UConn, and at Oregon State.
Neither their wins nor their losses are surprising. Oregon State may be a Quad 3 loss, but they are a dangerous team.
They have won 9 of their last 10, with Oregon State as the only loss in 2021. However, they have had their struggles. Less than a month ago, they needed OT to beat UC Riverside at Galen.
They are a very good team, but not unbeatable.
METRICS
Line: USC -3
ESPN Predictor: UCLA win 33% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 37% of the time
| USC | UCLA | |
| NET | 23 | 36 |
| KenPom Rank | 19 | 33 |
| Adjusted O Rank | 13 | 14 |
| Adjusted D Rank | 45 | 76 |
| Sagarin Rank | 27 | 26 |
| Record | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| SOS | 87 | 74 |
The computers generally favor SC over us, but not by a ton. We are comparable on offense, but they are a little better on defense.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
| USC | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Offense | 2 | 76.3 | 6 | 75.1 |
| FG Attempted | 3 | 59 | 8 | 58 |
| FG Percent | 1 | 46.6% | 5 | 45.5% |
| 3-Pt Percent | 9 | 33.3% | 2 | 37.3% |
| 3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 10 | 18.7 | 9 | 18.9 |
| FT Percent | 12 | 65.4% | 4 | 74.6% |
| FT Attempts Per Game | 2 | 24 | 6 | 21 |
| Assists Per Game | 6 | 13.9 | 4 | 14.6 |
| Fewest Turnovers | 7 | 12.5 | 3 | 11.1 |
Our offensive stats match up pretty well with those of USC. We both play around the same pace, although they play a little faster.
We shoot the 3 better, we shoot free throws quite a bit better, and we turn the ball over less.
They get to the line a lot, but they are really bad at shooting them.
They turn the ball over more and have fewer assists.
Advantage UCLA, if only a modest one.
DEFENSE
| USC | UCLA | |||
| Scoring Defense | 2 | 66.1 | 4 | 67.1 |
| FG Percent Defense | 2 | 39.8% | 8 | 43.1% |
| 3-Pt Percent Defense | 9 | 33.9% | 4 | 31.9% |
| Steals Per Game | 12 | 4.5 | 9 | 5.4 |
| Blocks Per Game | 1 | 5.7 | 11 | 2.6 |
There are a very good defensive team, but this is mostly due to their interior defense. They don't defend the arc that well.
The elephant in the preview is blocks. They block a LOT of shots. And blocks don't just keep a player from scoring. They can intimidate players and discourage them from driving. They can also lead to fast breaks and easy baskets.
Overall, advantage USC, but not if this turns into a 3-point shooting contest.
OTHER FACTORS
| USC | UCLA | |||
| Rebound Margin | 2 | 6.5 | 3 | 6.4 |
| Offensive Rebounds | 1 | 12.9 | 3 | 11.3 |
| Offensive Rebound Yielded | 9 | 10.6 | 2 | 8.3 |
| Defensive Rebounds | 1 | 27.1 | 5 | 25.9 |
| Assist-Turnover Ratio | 7 | 1.1 | 3 | 1.3 |
In sprite of their size, USC is not a rebounding monster like Arizona. They get a lot of rebounds, but they give up a lot of rebounds, too. We match up pretty well on the boards.
Although SC is very good on their offensive glass, but we don't give up that many offensive rebounds. That looks like a push.
Our A/TO margin is better.
PLAYERS
Andy Enfield had to hit the
So he brought in 6 transfers and 5 of them have played well for him. That has left him with a solid 9-man rotation. And he has had nice roster stability with 8 of them playing in every game.
| Games | Minutes | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | |
| Evan Mobley | 17 | 34 | 17 | 58% | 30% | 9 |
| Tahj Eaddy | 17 | 32 | 13 | 45% | 35% | 3 |
| Drew Peterson | 17 | 29 | 10 | 43% | 40% | 5 |
| Isaiah Mobley | 17 | 28 | 10 | 46% | 26% | 7 |
| Isaiah White | 17 | 21 | 8 | 47% | 32% | 4 |
| Chevez Goodwin | 17 | 15 | 6 | 54% | 0% | 4 |
| Ethan Anderson | 9 | 19 | 5 | 36% | 42% | 1 |
| Noah Bauman | 17 | 15 | 5 | 40% | 33% | 1 |
| Max Agbonkpolo | 17 | 27 | 4 | 32% | 21% | 3 |
For the most part, we want them to shoot 3's rather than get in the lane. The three exception are Drew Peterson, Tahj Eaddy, and Ethan Anderson.
Clearly their star is Evan Mobley. He is tall, skilled, and mobile, but not exactly a banger. He doesn't seem to like physical play. He can make the 3, but we would like to see him hanging around the arc.
Mobley will post up sometimes, but that is not really his game. He would rather be somewhere on the wing when he gets the ball and work from there.
I know a lot of people worry about Evan Mobley getting our bigs into foul trouble. However, he does seem to draw quite a few fouls. He has shot 105 free throws in 17 games. That is around 6 free throws per game. However, he is only making around 58% of his free throws.
Santa Clara transfer Tahj Eaddy is a dangerous scorer as he showed in the closing minutes against Stanford.
Rice Transfer Drew Peterson is their best outside shooter, but he is a solid all-around player.
Isaiah Mobley isn't going to score by creating his own shot, but moves well without the ball. He also doesn't like to bang.
Wofford transfer Chevez Goodwin does a good job as the third big in the rotation.
Ethan Anderson is coming back from injury, and is a dangerous outside shooter.
Max Agbonkpolo has been playing better of late, but I would be happy to see him shoot from anywhere on the floor.
If there is a weakness on their roster it is the lack of a true PG. 6-9 Drew Peterson plays that role a lot, but he is no Kyle Anderson. Ethan Anderson is not a true PG, but he has also played the role. The lack of a PG probably contributes to their low A/TO ratio.
CONCLUSION
The computers think this is likely to be the toughest game remaining on our schedule, and I see no reason to doubt that. However, we are not overmatched.
The statistics show two well-matched teams. So why is SC a solid favorite? Because the road is dark and full of terrors.
This may not be a normal road game with no crowd and no overnight travel, but teams play better on their home floor.
UCLA On The Road: 3-2
USC At Home: 13-1
There is one other factor that may balance the scales. Mick Cronin is just a better coach than Andy Enfield.
I see this game as a nail-biter. That isn't exactly going out on a limb. All our games are nail-biters.