Post by mhbruin on Feb 1, 2021 20:22:34 GMT -8
From Jon Wilner:
The Pac-12 would rather have more teams in contention for NCAA bids and for the top-four seeds, but it couldn’t have asked for a better final week of the regular season.
First, the top of the standings:
UCLA: 13-4
Oregon: 11-4
USC: 13-5
Colorado: 13-6
Next, the remaining games:
UCLA: at Oregon (Wednesday), vs. USC (Saturday)
Oregon: vs. Arizona (Monday), vs. UCLA (Wednesday), at OSU (Sunday)
USC: vs. Stanford (Wednesday), at UCLA (Saturday)
Colorado: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)
The seeding for the conference tournament is based on winning percentage, in order to account for the unequal number of games played.
Which means …
— If the Bruins win out, they’re the top seed.
— If the Ducks win out, they’re the No. 1 seed based on a half-game (or more) advantage over UCLA.
— If USC wins out and Oregon loses once, the Trojans are the No. 1.
— Colorado can win it, too: The Buffaloes must beat ASU for a 14-6 finish and get immense help in the form of two losses by UCLA, two by Oregon and one by USC.
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Here are what two computers project for the rest of our schedule.
That comes out to around a 20% chance of winning both, a 30% chance of losing both, and a 50% chance of a split.
BTW, ESPN gives Arizona a 34% chance against Oregon, and Stanford a 22% chance against SC. I don't know if daSilva will play against SC.
The Pac-12 would rather have more teams in contention for NCAA bids and for the top-four seeds, but it couldn’t have asked for a better final week of the regular season.
First, the top of the standings:
UCLA: 13-4
Oregon: 11-4
USC: 13-5
Colorado: 13-6
Next, the remaining games:
UCLA: at Oregon (Wednesday), vs. USC (Saturday)
Oregon: vs. Arizona (Monday), vs. UCLA (Wednesday), at OSU (Sunday)
USC: vs. Stanford (Wednesday), at UCLA (Saturday)
Colorado: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)
The seeding for the conference tournament is based on winning percentage, in order to account for the unequal number of games played.
Which means …
— If the Bruins win out, they’re the top seed.
— If the Ducks win out, they’re the No. 1 seed based on a half-game (or more) advantage over UCLA.
— If USC wins out and Oregon loses once, the Trojans are the No. 1.
— Colorado can win it, too: The Buffaloes must beat ASU for a 14-6 finish and get immense help in the form of two losses by UCLA, two by Oregon and one by USC.
----------------------
Here are what two computers project for the rest of our schedule.
| UCLA Win % - ESPN | UCLA Win T - Torvick | ||
| @ Oregon | 39% | 44% | Quad 1 |
| USC | 47% | 47% | Quad 1 |
That comes out to around a 20% chance of winning both, a 30% chance of losing both, and a 50% chance of a split.
BTW, ESPN gives Arizona a 34% chance against Oregon, and Stanford a 22% chance against SC. I don't know if daSilva will play against SC.