Post by mhbruin on Jan 22, 2021 15:10:04 GMT -8
To quote Ike and Tina Tuner:
You know, every now and then I think you might like tohear see something from us nice and easy
But there's just one thing.
You see, we never ever do nothing nice and easy.
We always do it nice and rough.
UCLA's team slogan. "We never do anything nice and easy."
We have survived most of the "easy" games. The schedule starts to take a step up in difficulty starting with Stanford.
However, this game gets much harder to analyze with Stanford potentially missing 4 of their top 6 rotation players.
They are #61 in the net, which makes this a Quad 1 game for UCLA, not matter who is playing.
STANFORD'S RECORD
Stanford is 8-5, but I am not sure they have anything I would call a bad loss. Their five losses are:
North Carolina
Indiana
@ Oregon
@ Utah
@ Colorado
The first two were on a neutral court. So they have not lost on their "home court" in Santa Cruz.
And they have neutral court win over Alabama who is dominating the SEC. This may be the single best win of any team in the Pac-12 this year.
That is probably why they are a bubble team.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5½ to -6
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 52% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 47% of the time
The computers like UCLA a bit, but Stanford has the home-court advantage.
Stanford looks like it plays excellent defense which has been a staple under Jerrod Haase.
This looks like it is a matchup of strength on strength one way. UCLA's excellent offense against Stanford's excellent defense. And Stanford's OK offense goes up against UCLA's OK defense.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
UCLA is better than Stanford, particularly in 3-point shooting, however, neither team shoots a ton of 3's.
The biggest advantage seems to be in PG play. Stanford doesn't have a lot of assists and they turn it over a lot. The problem is they don't have a natural point guard.
You might think this is because Daejon Davis has been out for 6 games, but he isn't a true PG, either. His A/TO ratio is only 1.3.
It's too bad UCLA doesn't get a lot of steals.
DEFENSE
Stanford is an excellent defensive team. Holding teams to 39% from the field is terrific. They aren't as effective at defending the three.
They also get a lot of steals.
If we adopt the same offensive strategy we used against Cal, we are in trouble. We cannot keep shot-faking and driving it into the lane. We have to be willing to shoot the 3. (Note: If they are short-handed, trying to get them into foul trouble might be part of the strategy.)
OTHER FACTORS
UCLA is better on the boards, but unlike some recent games, our edge is not overwhelming. They will compete with us.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs. (Note: 3 of their 4 assist leaders could be out, which would make our advantage overwhelming.)
PLAYERS
Stanford has been plagued by injuries. Only three players have played in every game this season. This makes their record even more impressive.
Since I don't know who will play Saturday so I will post stats for quite a few players. The players who are definitely available are in bold.
The most striking thing is that there are only two guards available, O'Connell and Taitz. They are both freshmen. And there isn't a ton of outside shooting.
da Silva is by far their best player and may be the best player in the Pac-12. He can score inside and outside. However, much of his inside scoring depends on David, Wills, and Jones penetrating and feeding it to him. Depending on who can go, he might have problems getting free inside, And without a lot of outside threats, we are likely to double him.
Wills is primarily a penetrator. He isn't much of an outside threat.
Davis is a good player who has been hindered a lot by playing out of position. He is a natural 2 guard forced to play the point. He isn't great at it, and his shooting has suffered, too.
Jones is the opposite, their primary 3-point threat.
Delaire is a good player, but isn't much of an outsider shooter.
McConnell was meant to be their backup PG. He is probably being pushed into service a lot more because of injuries.
CONCLUSION
This game totally depends on who plays. With their full roster, this is one of the toughest game of the year. It is the tossup the computers say it is. We need to keep Wills and David out of the lane and defend Jones on the perimeter. On the other end of the floor, we have to avoid driving to nowhere and take the outside shots that are available.
OTOH, if all the questionable guys are out, they will have a VERY weak backcourt, and this should be an easy win.
Of course, predicting easy wins for this team has been a fools errand so far this season. So I will just say it is a win.
You know, every now and then I think you might like to
But there's just one thing.
You see, we never ever do nothing nice and easy.
We always do it nice and rough.
UCLA's team slogan. "We never do anything nice and easy."
We have survived most of the "easy" games. The schedule starts to take a step up in difficulty starting with Stanford.
However, this game gets much harder to analyze with Stanford potentially missing 4 of their top 6 rotation players.
They are #61 in the net, which makes this a Quad 1 game for UCLA, not matter who is playing.
STANFORD'S RECORD
Stanford is 8-5, but I am not sure they have anything I would call a bad loss. Their five losses are:
North Carolina
Indiana
@ Oregon
@ Utah
@ Colorado
The first two were on a neutral court. So they have not lost on their "home court" in Santa Cruz.
And they have neutral court win over Alabama who is dominating the SEC. This may be the single best win of any team in the Pac-12 this year.
That is probably why they are a bubble team.
METRICS
Line: UCLA -5½ to -6
ESPN Predictor: UCLA wins 52% of the time.
Torvick: UCLA wins 47% of the time
| STANFORD | UCLA |
NET | 61 | 30 |
KenPom Rank | 47 | 28 |
Adjusted O Rank | 87 | 9 |
Adjusted D Rank | 12 | 81 |
Sagarin Rank | 55 | 23 |
Record | 8-5 | 12-2 |
SOS | 45 | 65 |
The computers like UCLA a bit, but Stanford has the home-court advantage.
Stanford looks like it plays excellent defense which has been a staple under Jerrod Haase.
This looks like it is a matchup of strength on strength one way. UCLA's excellent offense against Stanford's excellent defense. And Stanford's OK offense goes up against UCLA's OK defense.
OFFENSE
Ranks in the Pac-12
STANFORD | UCLA | |||
Scoring Offense | 9 | 72.4 | 4 | 76.6 |
FG Percent | 5 | 45.4% | 3 | 46.6% |
3-Pt Percent | 10 | 31.1% | 1 | 38.6% |
3-Pt Attempts Per Game | 12 | 17 | 11 | 18 |
FT Percent | 6 | 5 | ||
FT Attempts Per Game | 4 | 7 | ||
Assists Per Game | 10 | 12.5 | 4 | 15.1 |
Fewest Turnovers | 12 | 15.8 | 4 | 11.1 |
UCLA is better than Stanford, particularly in 3-point shooting, however, neither team shoots a ton of 3's.
The biggest advantage seems to be in PG play. Stanford doesn't have a lot of assists and they turn it over a lot. The problem is they don't have a natural point guard.
You might think this is because Daejon Davis has been out for 6 games, but he isn't a true PG, either. His A/TO ratio is only 1.3.
It's too bad UCLA doesn't get a lot of steals.
DEFENSE
CALIFORNIA | UCLA | |||
Scoring Defense | 10 | 8 | ||
FG Percent Defense | 2 | 39.1% | 8 | 43.2% |
3-Pt Percent Defense | 7 | 33.0% | 4 | 31.0% |
Steals Per Game | 3 | 7.1 | 11 | 4.9 |
Blocks Per Game | 7 | 11 |
Stanford is an excellent defensive team. Holding teams to 39% from the field is terrific. They aren't as effective at defending the three.
They also get a lot of steals.
If we adopt the same offensive strategy we used against Cal, we are in trouble. We cannot keep shot-faking and driving it into the lane. We have to be willing to shoot the 3. (Note: If they are short-handed, trying to get them into foul trouble might be part of the strategy.)
OTHER FACTORS
STANFORD | UCLA | |||
Rebound Margin | 6 | 2.7 | 2 | 6.7 |
Offensive Rebounds | 8 | 9.5 | 4 | 11.0 |
Defensive Rebounds | 3 | 6 | ||
Assist-Turnover Ratio | 10 | 0.8 | 4 | 1.4 |
UCLA is better on the boards, but unlike some recent games, our edge is not overwhelming. They will compete with us.
And our A/TO ratio is better than theirs. (Note: 3 of their 4 assist leaders could be out, which would make our advantage overwhelming.)
PLAYERS
Stanford has been plagued by injuries. Only three players have played in every game this season. This makes their record even more impressive.
Since I don't know who will play Saturday so I will post stats for quite a few players. The players who are definitely available are in bold.
Availability | Points | FG % | 3-Point Percent | Rebounds | Assists | |
Oscar da Silva | 19 | 62% | 38% | 7 | 2 | |
Daejon Davis | Questionable | 13 | 41% | 31% | 4 | 3 |
Ziaire Williams | Questionable | 13 | 37% | 32% | 6 | 3 |
Jaiden Delaire | 10 | 46% | 21% | 5 | 1 | |
Bryce Wills | Questionable | 9 | 56% | 20% | 4 | 3 |
Spencer Jones | Questionable | 7 | 40% | 37% | 4 | 1 |
Michael O'Connell | 4 | 50% | 35% | 2 | 2 | |
Neal Begovich | Questionable | 3 | 100% | 100% | 1 | 0 |
Noah Taitz | 3 | 57% | 33% | 1 | 0 | |
James Keefe | 2 | 29% | 0% | 3 | 0 | |
Lukas Kisunas | 1 | 42% | 0% | 2 | 0 |
The most striking thing is that there are only two guards available, O'Connell and Taitz. They are both freshmen. And there isn't a ton of outside shooting.
da Silva is by far their best player and may be the best player in the Pac-12. He can score inside and outside. However, much of his inside scoring depends on David, Wills, and Jones penetrating and feeding it to him. Depending on who can go, he might have problems getting free inside, And without a lot of outside threats, we are likely to double him.
Wills is primarily a penetrator. He isn't much of an outside threat.
Davis is a good player who has been hindered a lot by playing out of position. He is a natural 2 guard forced to play the point. He isn't great at it, and his shooting has suffered, too.
Jones is the opposite, their primary 3-point threat.
Delaire is a good player, but isn't much of an outsider shooter.
McConnell was meant to be their backup PG. He is probably being pushed into service a lot more because of injuries.
CONCLUSION
This game totally depends on who plays. With their full roster, this is one of the toughest game of the year. It is the tossup the computers say it is. We need to keep Wills and David out of the lane and defend Jones on the perimeter. On the other end of the floor, we have to avoid driving to nowhere and take the outside shots that are available.
OTOH, if all the questionable guys are out, they will have a VERY weak backcourt, and this should be an easy win.
Of course, predicting easy wins for this team has been a fools errand so far this season. So I will just say it is a win.